USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Sep21,Wk1On Thursday 26Aug21, I've shared a Bearish Shark setup on the USDJPY. I've also launched a poll in my telegram group you can access via my tradingview post at the bottom of this post. Many if not all the people who participated have voted the EURJPY over the USDJPY setup. Both of them are Shark Pattern and both of them are bearish setups too. The only difference is that the EURJPY setup is a Trend Trading setup and the USDJPY is a Counter-Trend setup.
To be honest, I have the same view too, but lucky for me, I didn't cherry-pick. I engage both of them and USDJPY is 10pips shy away from its first target (TP1), while EURJPY has its retest at the entry price.
We can have our preference but when the setup form, we shouldn't have our confirmation bias.
The link to both Bearish Shark analyses is at the link at the bottom.
At this moment the concern I have is this potential inverted Ascending Triangle which may sabotage my Shark Pattern trading setup. I've set my alert on the ascending trendline and the alert will trigger only when can candle touches the trendline and alert me when the candle close. This is how trading should be and not aimlessly staring at the chart.
If the candle respected the trendline and reverse at that point, I may exit my Final Target early and may reverse my trade(going long). This solely depends on how the candlestick closes and interact with the trendline.
There is other Harmonic Patterns on the 4-hourly chart but to keep it clean I've removed them. If you are interested to check what setup is there, you can check out the link at the bottom.
Candlestick analysis
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Sep21,Wk1It's sad to miss 130pips worth of profits which translate to $1,300USD/lot trade on the Bullish Bat Pattern I've shared on last Monday, which some of you have received that information even the day before the market open.
Well, I don't want you to jump into all the trade ideas I've shared but rather to read them, analyse them and make your own judgement call. There is an emerging bearish crab pattern on the GBPUSD 4-hourly chart as we are speaking.
On the 1hourly chart, the flag pattern doesn't hold as nicely as its distant relative, EURUSD. I've included its chart within the tradingview link of this post to save you time in searching for it.
From the flag pattern, GBPUSD has transformed into a nightmare of many proficient traders, the sideway increase volatility. And because they have experience in the market, most of them is going to let this set-up slide, because 9/10 times the market isn't going to respect the trendline, sometimes it went beyond it sometimes it doesn't even touch it and its reverses.
From this you can imagine how frustrating it can be.
Not for me. I will observe how the market move and should this be the 1 time that it works, it can bring a fantastic Reward:Risk.
AUDCAD - Bullish FlagA Bullish Flag may just form up on the AUDCAD 1-hourly chart. The 15minutes chart may provide a possibility of a 61.8% retracement after the double bottom has formed. Although with the current candlestick formation, it is unlikely for a retracement to happen, if it does it will give me a better fill.
The current entry gives you a 1.4:1 Reward:Risk, if a retracement happens, it will easily give you a 2:1.
Well, for me I engage half of my position, so when the market run without waiting for me, I still can earn some and when it retraces I can wait for candle confirmation to engage the second half.
The Best & Most Reliable Candlestick Patterns To UseIn this video I explain my favourite candlestick patterns and how to use them in your own trading.
Here we describe:
Engulfing Candles
Doji Candles
Hammer Candles
And I explain how to use them with confluence & context of where on the chart they occur.
SPX: Doing a new record high again! How to proceed?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today!
We did a new record high today, and it looks like we have a top formation in the 1h chart. This might bring a pullback, but not a reversal. The 4,480 was the previous ATH, and now it is working as support for the index.
If we lose this support, the 21 ema is there to hold the price in the short-term. Beyond this point, we have an open gap , which is exactly where the 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement is , and a sharper pullback might lead the index to that point.
However, since the index triggered the Piercing Line pattern we have been discussing, the mid-term trend is clearly bullish, and short-term pullbacks in the 1h chart hardly will affect the momentum. We would need a clearer bearish structure.
The only thing that is messing up with our reading is the volume , which TradingView has no data since Aug 20. I hope they will correct this soon. The volume in the 1h chart was always unreadable, but if this spreads to the daily chart, we can’t study SPX properly through TradingView.
Anyway, let’s focus on the points mentioned in this analysis for the short-term. Since it is a bull trend, pullbacks are opportunities to buy.
If you made this far, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses, and support this idea if it helped you!
Have a good day.
AUDUSD - Bullish BatIt seems like this week Bat Pattern is all Fib3 Bats, which means it has failed to touch the Fibonacci Retracement level of 50%.
Of all the Bat Pattern that was posted this week, AUDUSD Bat Pattern is more likely to fail because of an internal bearish flag pattern.
You have to watch closely how the candle responded at Point D on its PRZ level before engaging on this counter-trend trade.
GBPJPY - Bullish BatLike GBPUSD, GBPJPY also has a Bullish Bat setup that B point hasn't touch Fibonacci Retracement 50%. Although it is a similar setup, there are 2 things that GBPJPY came to a bit short compare to its big brother GBPUSD.
1. The Friday candle close haven't touched Point D.
2. Point C touches Point A candle body.
Where we can wait for #1 to fulfil but #2 is a warning sign and the minimum candle formation you need to see is a Bullish Engulfing candle at Point D.
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Aug21,Wk4You got a roomful of Harmonic Patterns, this usually happens when the market is consolidating or better known as a sideways market.
A Bearish Gartley Pattern seems to be the closest pattern to set up complete at 110.43. This setup will be treated as a counter-trend trade.
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Aug21,Wk4The bullish bat pattern form within the demand zone on the daily chart. This setup is good enough for me t engage the counter-trend trade.
However, I must highlight that the B point of this bat pattern didn't hit 50% Fibonacci Retracement and may not be a Bat Pattern to some Harmonic Pattern Traders.
I leave that decision to you.
EURUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Aug21,Wk4On the daily chart, EURUSD has broken and closed below the immediate support, however, it is still not a good enough confirmation for me because there's another level of support, looking left.
On the 1 hourly chart, 1.1704 is the critical level that many traders will be looking at. For counter-trend traders, a break and close below 1.1704 will encourage them to engage for an aggressive buy as a support & resistance trade or double bottom trade.
The trend-following or the trend traders will be hoping for the opposite and a bearish flag pattern.
USDCAD - Bearish BatA Bearish Bat Pattern has formed up on the 4-hourly chart. I'm waiting for the current candle to close and may just go aggressive when that happens.
This harmonic pattern is a counter-trend setup, hence when it reaches the blue box, you have to shift stop-loss to entry, well, at least I will.
NZDUSD - Supply Zone and Resistance LevelThere's no need for thousands of lines to make a trading work, it can just be a simple line and a small box if you know how to read the price chart, naked.
Naked trading is what I've been doing for years but never really use that term. It simply means trading without indicator, just base on candlesticks.
The black rectangle box is the aggressive trading zone for traders to jump on the bandwagon.
Conservative traders can wait for the retest on the red line for a shorting opportunity.
GBPAUD - Bearish GartleyA Bearish Gartley Pattern setup GBPAUD. I've taken the trade and place my stop loss on this trend trading opportunity.
Although I've shorted this Harmonic Pattern, it doesn't mean you should follow blindly. Point C violated Point A as it touches the candle body that acts as a tested Support Level that could sabotage the integrity of this trade.
AUDCAD - Inverted Ascending TriangleA buying opportunity can be a possible trading setup as long as the candle didn't break and close below the trendline of this Inverted Ascending Triangle.
If the current candle close as a long shadow(having the lower shadow 3times higher than the candle body I will engage on an immediate buy.
GBPJPY - Bullish SharkA Bullish Shark Pattern completes at 151.40 at 1pm(+8GMT). What will you do if you miss this trade?
Most traders will choose either 1 of the option:
1. Rush and engage the trade
2. Set Pending Order at the entry price and hope for the retest.
I engage 25% of my position to the 1st target and the remaining 75% I'll set the Buy Limit Pending Order to engage the trade.
There isn't a perfect answer, trade the way that fits you best.