Cannabis Stocks: Blood in the streets will continueTilray $TLRY Canopy Growth $CGC and Aurora Cannabis $ACB are all going to continue lower over the next few months as their values realign with basic fundamentals. Looking for Tilray to hit about $7.50 in the next few months. In the meantime, there are plenty of excellent companies that a prudent investor could get into after the selling ends.
Canopygrowth
Swing Trade: 🌿Cannabis stock on the heat! TLRY Breakout RunHi fellows, just one of my today swingtrades:
Nice setup for breakout in NASDAQ:TLRY .
Cannabis stocks are set up for nice run after Gorgia senate election.
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 11,35
Stop Loss: 10.66
Profit target: 13.50
Time stop: 5 days
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Cronos Group Long Idea / Buy Toronto-based Cronos Group has always played it safe by not aggressively going after acquisitions, instead using cash to focus on research and development with its products. With steady revenue numbers, it has kept its balance sheet strong enough to at least survive the COVID-19 storm.
At the moment, Cronos's business is predominantly in Canada, though its American and Israeli segments are growing quickly. While its Canadian segment hasn't expanded much this year, its total quarterly revenue is growing at a rate of 29.1% year over year, which is a bit faster than Canopy. But this growth doesn't change the profitability problem. That said, Cronos may not need to take dramatic action to reach profitability, thanks to a powerful new ally.
In March of last year, Altria Group agreed to invest $1.8 billion in Cronos in exchange for a 45% share of the company. Altria is one of the world's largest tobacco product manufacturers, and its holdings include everything from major cigarette brands to newly famous e-cigarette and vaporizer companies like JUUL. So it's reasonable to expect that Altria will empower Cronos with its considerable strength in product development, brand-building, and supply chain management. As long as Altria continues to invest in improving its vaporizers, Cronos will benefit, and it will have a long-lasting competitive advantage as a result.
From all this i am expecting the stock to outperform canopy growth in the long term +4years . And seeing the price reaching 100$ or even more by 2030 .
Buy and Hold.
Good Luck
Which cannabis should I own now Biden is the president? part 2Technical overview:
VFF all time high was 17.45$ in March 21 2019.
After COVID-19 our highest high is today’s 10.82$.
Before we start analyzing the wave we are seeing in VFF we must mention a valuable fact ! the resistance level from March 2018 was just broken !! that is big ! it was broken by an igniting bar with a lot of volume and momentum behind it meaning investors belief in the mentioned stock is back and its high !now lets start analyzing the prediction:
If we look at the FIB levels from the Highest high drop of march 2019 we can understand that VFF stock is on the 50% FIB line at the moment – that is very important, which makes me think about correction coming ,ill explain :
So we are looking at an impulse wave in its 3rd stage (tends to be the strongest stage), and once the third stage will end we will go into a minor correction in the fourth stage –the end of the current stage can take us all the way to 13.5$ - 14$ and the correction is expected to be about 618 FIB level which will bring VFF stock to the 10.00$ line once again and prove that number to be a strong support level – remember psychological numbers are very important in the world of stocks. Meaning when the stock starts correcting most investors will put a limit order on the 10$ line to re-buy the stock at that value – which matches our 50% FIB line showing there is big demand for the stock to be at that price level.
ALWAYS REMEMBER support levels are created as demand rises every time an asset reaches that level and the market thinks the asset is valued more -that’s why they are support level -if you use volume indicators you will usually find high volume around support areas.
Back to VFF -so we are looking at a stock that on its 3rd stage expected to reach 13.5$ at least and we still have the 5th stage to go through – in my eyes from technical only this stock is expected to reach the 17$ mark before end of current year and that is without the bill passing, if the bill passes then this is well beyond its 20$ mark.
Lets talk Fundamental :
So the house was suppose to vote on a legalization bill in sept but because of covid it was postponed to after the elections, and the vote is scheduled for mid-December -if that bill passes then you should check your cannabis stock portfolio – we are looking at prices of the cannabis craze a year and half ago. Worth mentioning that in the beginning of Nov we had voters from Arizona, New Jersey, Montana approve ballot measures to legalize recreational marijuana, while south Dakota approved both recreational and pharmaceutical so legalization is here in my opinion it’s a matter of time till its marijuana being illegal days are behind us.
I should mention other countries are following this as well, Israel for example is working on passing a legalization bill as we speak and there are many other countries coming next.
VFF is a Canada based agricultural producer and except many vegetables they also grow a lot of cannabis.
VFF acquired Pure Sunfarm Corp and owns 100% of its cannabis producing shares, which should not be taken lightly as they exist for over 25 years and sell various products from vapes, CBD oil, seeds and over 15 different kinds of marijuana species. Village farms has 9 million square miles of farms delivering produce under exclusive contract with these farmers. Their business model is financing part of the expenses to farmers in order to get them started with the initial capital needed, truly a great vision.
VFF at the moment is the most valuable marijuana stock on the NASDAQ with a TTM P/S ratio of 2.9!
To sum up :
Although a lot think the bill will not be approved this December and may take more time till it does we are still sitting on a cash cow here – with VFF current growth rate and cheap stock price that in my eyes expected to cross 20$
Compare to other cannabis stocks:
Canopy Growth Co.I'm publishing this idea with my older brother in mind due to him bringing this Marihuana stock to my attention a couple months ago. I'll try to be quick, but even though I don't like picking sides I will say that I'm more bullish than bearish for a few reasons so let's begin!
Confluence (3 or more):
1. P.A. retested HTF resistance turned support for 1st time ($8.91)
2. HTF bullish wedge
3. Untouched O.B. ($13.88-$14.81) underneath last month's closing candle
4. P.A. shift (LLs to LHs) from a HTF perspective
I would like to see a push down in price to that untouched O.B. before the bulls enter the market, but due to a huge barrier that's holding up price I'd sit out until there's a B.A.R. of the $21-$26 area.
Fundamentals:
"Canopy can also take advantage of the strategic deal inked last year with U.S. hemp company Acreage Holdings to market it's products. Acreage will market Canopy's diverse beverage portfolio in the U.S., which should also help make Canopy a worthwhile investment for long-term gains."
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Which cannabis stocks should I now that Biden is the president?Which cannabis stocks should I now that Biden is the president (part 1) : Going first with Cronos Group.
Biden won (although Trump wouldn’t agree😊) and the sentiment is talking about green energy stocks, electric vehicle makers, telecommunication stocks, cannabis stocks, government bonds and more. But we cant invest in everything and we cant relay on market hype to make a sound investment. So first I wanted to break down cannabis stocks as they have rallied dramatically in the last 2 trading sessions.
But before all that lets state a super important fact: Arizona, and South Dakota recently voted to legalize recreational marijuana! BOOM!
I choose to start this series with the first stock of Cronos Group.
Cronos Group
Heavily funded by Altria group investment in 2018 with 1.8 billion, the company has been operating in the last two years with no factual growth or sales, I mean 10 million in sales in the cannabis world market would be a drop in the bucket.
Stock rallied 10% in the last week upon elections but once the 15 min of fame are over this stock isn’t going to do much in my opinion.
The spending on growth and technological developments such as “fermented cannabinoids” which I will explain now, have cost the company to fall behind in the cannabis race on market and sales share.
So what is fermented cannabinoids?
The Cannabis flower isn’t using cannabinoids in order to maintain its survival, which can cause a change of up to 30% in the concentration of the flower’s cannabinoids, even if grown in identical conditions it still varies from one flower to another. So, extracting and controlling this would be a very difficult task.
Fermenting it is basically growing its cells in a lab and duplicating them instead of growing the flower itself – again this is explaining it in a nutshell of course.
So the news about Biden wining can maybe translated into good news for Cronos Group, but for me as a skeptical, I’ll need some proof of concept before jumping in and that means sales sales and more sales!
TECHNICAL VIEW on Cronos Group:
Highest high pre COVID was a25.1$ at February 2019.
Dropped from there all the way to 5$ with one Bullish week during that slope.
Then was side channeling from 5$ to 7$ and gave one fake out on June @ 8.09$ and went back down.
This Friday it broke resistance and touched 8.4$ just to drop back down to 7.5.
With all rally and resistance tested twice and broken, I expect the stock to rally up more to the 13$ zone (retracement to the 38 Fib line) but I don’t see it going further then that at least in the upcoming 4-6 months.
Short term Buy
Long Term Sell
Revise again at March 2021.
Here is a chart comparing all major cannabis stocks one next to another (not including Grow generation group that could not fit in the chart since price is too high)
Next up we will cover Canopy Growth!
WE analyze the stock market acc to the great Ralph Nelson Elliot and combine that with fundamental and sentiment analysis on a theory we call Market Cycle Based Analysis and that gives us high prediction rate 😊
This is not a recommendation but our personal advice
Trade safe and invest smart!
Stock of the Day / CGCToday we have a long setup to share. As we are used to we will start by sharing the Macro view and then we will explain the 4hs chart
a) Weekly Chart: The price bounced from a clear Support / Resistance level tested from both sides
b) On the 4HS chart we can see a broken descending trendline + a clear corrective structure supported on the weekly level
c) The corrective structure is an ABC pattern which is considered a continuation structure
d) We have set our Orders as you can see on the chart. We will move our stop loss to break-even when the price reaches the yellow horizontal line
e) On this setup we will risk 1% of our capital and we expect to win 1.8%
f) We will cancel the setup IF the price goes below C
g) Remember: Trade safe, protect your capital, and always understand what you are doing!
Massive Short Squeeze in CanopyCanopy is on fire today, and is up 20% plus on the week, off the back of optimism over the possible decriminalization of Marijuana in the United States. Last night at the Vice Presidential Debate, Kamala Harris made mention of the dems plan to bring this to fruition, should they win the election in November. This has the entire sector hot today, without exception, as one can expect.
It looks as though we may hit the 200 day MA at 23.30 this week before we see profit taking, and the shorts re-entering. It's also important to note that we're nearing major resistance with the top of the downward channel a stones throw away. I suspect we may see a reversal of the squeeze next week once the bulls have achieved these levels. If there's enough momentum to pierce the upper downtrend line, and the 200 day MA, the upside could be massive, particularly seeing as earnings are not until early November.
We shouldn't rule out the possibility of a broad market sell off, given the high number of potential catalysts floating around at the moment. This could heavily affect Canopy's price action, and the positive sentiment around it's valuation.
I appreciate your time today guys. Thanks, Michael.
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Canopy Looking Particularly WeakCanopy is in a defined downtrend, and has been trading below it's 21 day EMA since mid August with diminishing volume. Note: earnings release is early November, and the stock has consistently sold off heavily on recent earnings reports off the back of low demand, high supply, and the natural constraints of scaling the edibles/drinks business, among other constraints.
The industry has taken a beating with favorites like Aphria down 90% plus from past highs. Aphria's recent earnings report was a monster disappointment, and sent the stock tumbling 20% plus in a single day. I've seen moves of similar magnitude to the downside in Canopy off the back of recent, and similarly disappointing earnings reports. I suspect just as we've witnessed before, the stock will be pumped into earnings, only to be hammered lower once again.
Stay tuned.
Michael
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Is Canopy trading in a bullish flag?It's very likely this plays out bearishly as a descending triangle, Canopy recently released earnings & the price continued to sell off immediately in the days following, despite the financials improving from previous quarters, and despite strong beverage sales the market seems to favor the U.S focused MSO's at the moment.
Canopy will need some compelling news to break this pattern to the upside.
Canopy is displaying a Symmetrical Triangle pattern as well, notice the green upward sloping line of support, Symmetrical triangles differ from ascending triangles and descending triangles in that the upper and lower trendlines are both sloping towards a center point. In contrast, ascending triangles have a horizontal upper trendline, predicting a potential breakout higher, and descending triangles have a horizontal lower trendline, predicting a potential breakdown lower. Symmetrical triangles are also similar to pennants and flags in some ways, but pennants have upward sloping trendlines rather than converging trendlines.
Possibly a Head & Shoulders Breakdown for WEED.Canopy appears to have broken the base line of support of a micro Head & Shoulders, the blue line is where I have the base of support for the pattern.
The RSI is starting to creep into an area where WEED has seen support, the green arrows pointing to the right is what I am referring too.
Fake out on the Ascending Triangle to the downside?It appears as though Canopy may have pulled a fake out to the downside on an ascending triangle I have outlined in dark blue.
In my previous post I mentioned how the RSI has seen bullish support when approaching the green arrows pointing side ways to the right, where I had a question mark in my previous post is now a green arrow coinciding with the others.
Possibly a bullish flag outlined in green, the downward sloping resistance keeps getting breached to the upside negating a descending triangle / bear flag.
Turning bullish on CGC, but still might get lower buying oppCanopy had a massive 40x run from 2015 to 2018, and has since been in a prolonged correction. Starting to look like a bottom is forming around the $10-15 range. I began averaging in and plan on building a core position over the next 6-12 month. Looking for a 10x move to $150 area on this upcoming cycle.
Canopy Growth - Critical PointCritical Point for Canopy Growth.
Resting right on the 50EMA and bottom trend line of the ascending channel.
Failed to close above 200EMA and tested back down to bottom of the ascending channel.
Ascending channel traditionally leads to lower prices but that's after the breaking of the lower trend line.
Possible test of .618 fib level which also meets with the 200EMA.
Possible short-term upside play with stop loss can be practical.
A good bullish confirmation overall would be a daily candle close or two above the 200EMA, creating enough of a divergence between it and the 50EMA, also creating a new high in this micro trend.
CGC Long - Easy Bounce Back Reversal From Pre Earning FOMO $17+Previous bear resistance is now bull support. Marijuana stocks are just too strong. Ignore the noise and play the charts. Anyone that bought marijuana stocks in the 2018 hype phase post Bitcoin and the crypto boom knows that Tilray was the hype and CGC was the anchor. Retailers don't care about market cap; they only look at price. Tilray is now past $10 and CGC is back to $16. It wasn't long ago that Tilray was just $2.50 and ACB was $0.75 pre reverse stock split. The ACB rampage made us all lot of gains as we bought up call options for every other marijuana stock. In this pullback, we are just putting some of those profits to buy the stock. Aphria is now on NASDAQ to lift all boats.
Is WEED trading in a Bullish Flag?Potentially a Ascending Triangle as well, but we haven't seen a retest of the blue upward sloping support, instead Canopy has created a series of higher lows forming an inverted head & shoulders, next week will confirm the trend.
An inverse head and shoulders, also called a "head and shoulders bottom", is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics: the price falls to a trough and then rises; the price falls below the former trough and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second trough. Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward, toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs.
An inverse head and shoulders is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends
An inverse head and shoulders pattern, upon completion, signals a bull market
Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline.
Bullish flag formations are found in stocks with strong uptrends. They are called bull flags because the pattern resembles a flag on a pole. The pole is the result of a vertical rise in a stock and the flag results from a period of consolidation. The flag can be a horizontal rectangle, but is also often angled down away from the prevailing trend. Another variant is called a bullish pennant, in which the consolidation takes the form of a symmetrical triangle. The shape of the flag is not as important as the underlying psychology behind the pattern. Basically, despite a strong vertical rally, the stock refuses to drop appreciably, as bulls snap up any shares they can get. The breakout from a flag often results in a powerful move higher, measuring the length of the prior flag pole. It is important to note that these patterns work the same in reverse and are known as bear flags and pennants.
An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs, and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside. Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since the price will typically breakout in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming.
The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows.
Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically breakout of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle. Although, this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy.
Time will tell I suppose.
CGC - GREAT Buy Opportunity, IF ... !!!Hello! Friends,
-This would be a great Buy Opportunity, IF NYSE:CGC breaks up the Resistance at $16.00 !!
- NYSE:CGC is following PITCHFORK levels well. You can even trade only with its support and resistance.
Is it Up in Smoke for Pot Stocks? | ALTERNATIVE HARVEST ($MJ)🌿 Alternative Harvest is on its way up after an extremely bearish last half of 2019 for pot stocks, but is it up in smoke or down in ashes for MJ? Right now we have MJ rallying off the bottom as darlings of cannabis like Aurora and Tilray push higher. This move in some pot stocks has pushed others up. Some of this is fundamental, with some better than expected earnings and one study that shows that maybe smoking pot helps ward off COVID, while some of this seems to be FOMO. Although pot stocks can really run when they run, the overall bearishness of the trend has us looking to short exhaustion from this rally... even if it is just as a hedge (although we will likely wait until Tuesday's open to execute this since we have a three day weekend).
Resource: www.thestreet.com
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1. Fractal Trend is showing a downtrend (Maroon bar color) on the 4-hour timeframe. Despite the recent strength in MJ, the trend has been bearish for a while.
2. With this strategy, we are looking for short setups in a downtrend and as such want to enter short on retests of bearish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Maroon line color) and/or bearish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Maroon line color).
3. We are looking for a short entry off of the range formed by the R1 bearish order block with a stop placed at the gap and a target of the S1 order block + S/R flip cluster.
4. If that entry doesn't work, we are looking for a short entry off of the major S/R flip at R2 with a stop placed above the R3 order block cluster and a target of S1.
5. Additional notable levels include S2 and S3. Notable here is that a bounce off S1 would create a potential series of higher lows lending to the bull case for MJ, while a break to S2 or S3 would break the short term bullish structure and lend itself to the overall bearish bias the chart already has.
This short setup makes a lot of sense to us given how bearish MJ has been over the past year and are not trying to catch any knives calling a bottom too early. That said, due to recent strength and a three day weekend for the retail markets it makes sense to hold off on opening a short until Tuesday.
Good luck MJ traders!