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Gold: bearish risks persist  Gold prices have been consolidating in a narrowing range lately, with the recent rise in expectations of higher interest rates in the US caps the dismal recovery attempts. Despite the greenback is on the defensive against major counterparts since the start of this week, the yellow metal fails to attract a more robust buying interest and remains close to the 20-DMA at $1,195.  On the one hand, the precious metal shows some signs of stabilization, with the latest significant decline was limited by lows just below the $1,190 figure. On the other hand, the solid US economic fundamentals coupled with the ongoing US-China trade war keep the greenback in the bullish trend, despite some negative pressure recently.  The US retail sales data are due on Friday, with another spectacular release could cement Fed rate hike expectations further and dent the emerging recovery in gold prices. For now, federal-funds futures point to a 80% probability of the Fed rate hike two more times this year, while just a month ago, the probability was around 60%. As such, downside risks for the yellow metal persist, and the prices could yet challenge the $1,190 in the coming days. 
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
GBPUSD may have a turbulent week Pound has staged a short-term spike following the better-than-expected Q2 DGP report, but failed to sustain gains as the manufacturing and industrial production disappointed. After a brief jump to 1.2954, the cable retreated back to opening levels, however keeps above the 1.29 threshold. Apart from the impressive GDP data, the general weaker tone around the greenback helps GBPUSD to refrain from losses, though the bearish risks from the Brexit developments are still there. In particular, it is reported that the UK PM May will hold a cabinet meeting this week to discuss no-deal Brexit as a part of preparations in case of a no-deal scenario. Chequers is the only Brexit plan on the table, which is a risk for the pound as EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said he is "strongly opposed" to aspects of the Chequers plan, and former Brexit minister Steve Baker said PM risks 'catastrophic split' in Tories. Apart from this factor, sterling will have another test in the form of a Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Despite the central bank is not expected to change the current stance of the monetary policy, Carney’s comments on the economy and the potential further policy course could bring the additional volatility to the pound that could get back below the 20-DMA and challenge the 1.28 threshold should the bearish risks realize.
by HelenRush
Dollar may yet regain strength The greenback declined dramatically against the yen overnight and remains unattractive for buyers on Friday. There is no obvious risk aversion so fat in the global financial markets, but investors are obviously cautious as the new Trump’s tariffs on China are looming as well as another trade war, this time with Japan. So the risk-off sentiment could reemerge at any moment, with the buck may benefit from market turmoil along with the yen as safe-haven currencies. And as long as Trump’s protectionism keeps global investors on their toes, dollar’s downside potential will be limited. As there are no signs of easing tensions between the US and its trading partners, this factor could serve as a safety cushion for the dollar at this stage. In the short term however the USD dynamics will depend on the economic signals. For the greenback to regain its previous strength, the NFP employment data, including wages, should surprise to the upside. Otherwise, the USDJPY will threaten the 110.00 figure, while EURUSD will break above the 1.1650-1.1660 area, to 1.17.
by HelenRush
GBPUSD: bulls should be cautious The pound staged an impressive recovery yesterday, though trimmed intraday gains consequently. GBPUSD continues to move north on Thursday, but remains below the key 1.30 handle so far. The sterling has regained the upside impetus due to a weaker dollar demand coupled with Brexit news. Positive Brexit headlines from Germany have inspired the bulls and partially eased concerns over a no-deal divorce, which spurred sterling buying after four days of decline. The technical picture has im-proved as a result, and the easing demand for the greenback also helps. Nevertheless, bearish risks are still there for the cable as Brexit issues are not resolved yet, while the buck may yet regain strength in the nearest future as Trump is about to announce fresh tariffs on Chi-na exports and thus make safe havens attractive again, after a short period of stabilization. As such, the pound bulls should be cautious in the current recovery which could reverse abruptly should the risk aversion reemerge as sterling remains very sensitive to risk sentiment, and the green-back receives a decent support from the trading wars in general. In a negative scenario, GBPUSD could get beck below 1.28 after a dip under the 20-DMA at 1.2850.
by HelenRush
EURUSD decline presents a long-term buying opportunity The dollar bulls are starting to lose the grip on Wednesday as the risk sentiment shows some signs of improvement. However, the buck remains on the offensive generally as the currency refrains from a deeper retreat ahead of new tariff exchange between the US and China due tomorrow. The trade war escalation could send the riskier assets lower once again, while the greenback will benefit as a typical safe-haven currency along with the Japanese yen. As such, EURUSD could resume the decline and once again challenge the 20-DMAwhich is the last line of defense ahead of the 1.15 support area. The risk factors for the euro are also the developments around the Italy’s budget and the potentially strong US jobs data for August due this Friday. In the long term however the pair could regain strength as the prospects of further tightening in the US may weaken should the economy slow down amid trade wars, while the ECB may start to prepare markets for hiking rates after the QE ends this year. As such, a dip below 1.15 could be attractive for long-term buyers who believe in the positive outlook for the euro zone economy.
by HelenRush
Brent nears $80, profit-taking around the cornerCrude oil prices continue to rise on Tuesday, and in the latest move, Brent has pierced the $79 handle and stays elevated despite the signs of overbought conditions start to emerge in the daily charts. The market sentiment remains firmly positive, with Brent has accelerated its ascent even as the greenback demand has picked up today. Traders continue to push the barrel closer to the key $80 threshold as the fundamental picture remains bullish amid the upcoming US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The fact that supplies from the third biggest OPEC producer have been already declining quite rapidly supports crude prices amid expectations of further market tightening. This factor continues to serve as a “safety cushion” for the market in the medium term. However, to get firmly back above $80, Brent needs some additional catalysts and drivers. By the way, traders should be more cautious at this stage as the market ignores the downside risks including the upcoming US-China trade war escalation, emerging market turmoil and more positive sentiment around the greenback. So as soon as investors shift focus to these risks, oil prices could rapidly change the course and retreat from nearly two-month highs around $79.30, down to $77 or even lower.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Brexit dominates pound trading The buying pressure on the greenback has eased since Friday rally, but it doesn’t help the pound which remains on the defensive at the start of a new trading week. The GBPUSD pair opened with a bearish gap on Monday, with the price got back below 1.29 and is approaching the 20-DMA at 1.2850. The selling pressure could increase further in the coming days as the House of Commons returns from the Summer holiday, and Brexit will dominate the headlines down the road. Brexit uncertainty is still there and the unresolved issues continue to limit the pound’s upside potential even as the greenback trading is subdued. Over the weekend, Barnier said that he is “strongly opposed” to May’s Chequers’ proposals which as he pointed would signal “the end of the single market and the European project”. As such, the two sides are yet to reconcile the differences to find a solution that will suit both. Against this backdrop, traders will likely refrain from sterling buying, with rally attempts could attract bears and send the pair below 1.28 in the coming days. Another risk for the pound is the worsening risk sentiment amid the ongoing US-China trade war, uncertainty around NAFTA negotiations and the currency crisis in the emerging markets.
by HelenRush
EURUSD: time for a correction? After the recent rally, the euro may be set for a bearish correction even as the dollar demand is tentative. A number of risk factors for the single currency that could derail its current bullishness and fuel a retreat from the recent highs above 1.17. EURUSD has slipped from August high of 1.1733 earlier this week on some signs of risk-off sentiment reemergence. On Friday, Trump’s new tariff threats have fuelled risk aversion, which added to the bearish bias in the euro, though the selling pressure is still limited, despite the euro area CPI data came in lower than expected. But further on, the single currency could face some obstacles that may send the pair lower. First, the Turkish lira crisis deepens, which could reignite worries over the European banks. So far, there are no signs of this crisis abating, so this factor may yet fuel euro weakness down the road. Second, the US-EU trade jitters back in focus after Trump rejected the EU offer to eliminate auto tariffs and called this offer "not good enough." This means that the two sides are yet to come to agreement, and this could be problematic, considering the US President’s tough position. Third, Fitch report on Italy’s ratings could increase the pressure on the euro should the agency present a lower estimate citing the country’s budget issues. In a negative scenario, the pair may get back below the 20-DMA at 1.1540 as early as next week. In the short term, the price could challenge the 1.1650 immediate support.
by HelenRush
Gold: risk-off flows threaten to derail recovery The risk-on sentiment continues to abate further on Wednesday, with after mixed flows in Asia, European stock markets slumped on Thursday as trade fears start to reemerge. Investors have already digested the progress on NAFTA and now shift focus on the US-China trade war as the next portion of tariffs is looming. As such, the dollar bulls could get back into the game as the greenback demand rises in turbulent times, which in turn may derail the tepid recovery in gold prices. The yellow metal reached a two-week high of $1,214 earlier this week and has been drifting lower since as the selling pressure around the buck has eased. So far, it is not enough to press the bullion much lower from the current levels, but a break below the $1,200 threshold will worsen the short-term technical picture. Considering the recent rally in gold looks vulnerable, investors could proceed to a more aggressive profit-taking ahead of the weekend, so the downside risks start to rise in the daily charts. In the negative scenario, the immediate target for bears comes at $1,198 and then at $1,194.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
USD finds a bid as focus shifts to the trade war The greenback has recovered partially on Tuesday after a dip to a four-week low against the euro. The EURUSD pair was rejected from the 1.1733 area and retreated to 1.1660 on Wednesday amid profit-taking following an aggressive USD sell-off since the start of last week. The dollar demand seems to be reemerging, partly due to the abating risk-on sentiment as investor focus shifts from US-Mexico agreement to the US-China trade war. Now, after recent talks failed to bring a major breakthrough, the trade conflict between the two countries could escalate as September 5 is the deadline for public comment on Trump's increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Therefore, the risk aversion could resume in coming days as investors will likely prefer to focus on safe-havens ahead of the decision on new tariffs. As such, the greenback could win in this scenario and recoup its recent losses. EURUSD may challenge the 1.16 threshold first and target the 20-DMA at 1.1530 afterwards.
by HelenRush
Gold: “buy the dip” continues Gold prices continue to recover on Tuesday, holding steady close to nearly two-week highs around $1,214. The greenback remains on the defensive, with the selling pressure has intensified in the wake of a trade deal between the US and Mexico. Against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, which suffers a decline amid a risk-on sentiment, the bullion demand has surged over the past couple of weeks, and more signs of a reversal start to emerge. Late last week, the price has got back above the $1,200 hurdle which brought more buying interest for gold. For the current corrective rebound to continue, we need to see further decline in the USD index however. Considering Trump is a wild card and the major news-marker for the global financial markets, the risk aversion could reemerge at any point. This means that the dollar demand may return suddenly down the road. Therefore, gold bulls should be careful as the yellow metal now looks more attractive for a partial profit-taking. In the short term however, the bullion could target the $1,216 area, but a sustained break above is unlikely any time soon.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
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What’s next for EURUSD? The EURUSD pair gained decently last week, with the euro received support both from dollar weakness and a broad rebound in risk appetite. The price has surged to early-August high of 1.1650 earlier on Monday, but the move higher looks to be out of steam for now. The recent bullish catalyst for the pair was the Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, with dollar bulls were disappointed by the lack of hawkish comments as the Fed’s governor tone was rather cautious. As a result, the greenback was hit across the board, which opened the way north for the single currency. But as the euro strength is mostly derived from dollar retreat, the rally could run out of steam now if the pair doesn’t receive its own bullish catalysts any time soon. A daily close above 1.16 is needed for a confirmation of an upside breakthrough, but the longer the price trades below the 1.1650 intermediate resistance, the higher the risk of a profit-taking and a retreat back to the 20-DMA at 1.1530.
by HelenRush
Will dollar bulls regain control? The greenback is back on the defensive after yesterday’s recovery. This week, the US currency came under an intense pressure amid Trump’s criticism, and the bulls still fail to regain control as traders are nervous ahead of the key event of this week – Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The Fed’s chair testament will set the tone not for USD pairs only, but for the global financial markets as well. Investors hope that Powell will confirm the central bank’s commitment to further rate hikes, despite the recent Trump’s comments. And the solid US fundamentals justify this path for now. So, positive rhetoric by the Federal Reserve governor could open the way for an ascent in the buck across the board, while the potential highlight of the consequences from the US-China trade war is a risk for the greenback. As such, the EURUSD pair, which faced intraday resistance at 1.1580, could target the 1.15 level again, after a break below the 20-DMA at 1.1530.
by HelenRush
Brent set for correction Crude oil prices enjoyed an impressive rally yesterday, with Brent rose most in two month. The price has edged above the $75 figure, but struggles to stay above this level on Thursday. The corrective moves look limited so far, but the retreat could deepen in the short term. The bullish EIA report served as a catalyst for buyers as the report showed that US stockpiles declined by 5.8 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.8 drain expected. The additional buying interest came from the news that a member of International Group said the US sanctions have severely compromised its relations with Iran. Market participants took this message as another sign of the potential risks for global supply. As the dust has settled after a short-covering rally, Brent could proceed with its bearish correction, especially if the greenback continues to regain ground across the board. Traders could opt to exit longs in the oil market ahead of Powell speech due tomorrow as the Fed Governor may express a hawkish tone and fuel dollar rally.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
The dollar could receive a boost from FOMC minutes The dollar has stabilized after a massive sell-off fuelled by recent Trump’s attack on the Fed policy and comments by the central bank official Kaplan who hinted at a pause in tightening. The greenback demand is reemerging gradually ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release due later today. As such, EURUSD retreats marginally from highs in the 1.16 region, with the 20-DMA at 1.1535 is back on traders’ radars. Market participants expect a hawkish tone from the Fed minutes despite the recent Trump’s criticism as the central bank itself is an independent institution, and the economic fundamentals remain solid and justify further rates hiking. So if the Fed doesn’t disappoint the dollar bulls, EURUSD could accelerate the emerging downside correction and challenge the 1.15 support. The stakes are also getting higher for a delivery from Powell at Jackson Hole due on Friday. The expectations of this event could also support the greenback in coming days
by HelenRush
Euro gets a relief from Trump The EURUSD pair is extending gains for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday, with the recent buying interest was fuelled by Trump’s verbal interventions. The US President has criticized the Fed for raising interest rates. His rhetoric sent the greenback down across the board, which helped the euro to regain the 1.15 threshold. As the pair has recovered from lows decently, and the buck remains under pressure against major rivals, the price could proceed with the ongoing rebound in the short term as the single currency still looks attractive for buyers, and the dollar will feel the effect from Trump’s intervention for some time yet. As such, EURUSD could overcome the 20-DMA at 1.1540 and target the 1.16 barrier. The risk for this scenario is if the US-China trade talks this week fail to result in a breakthrough. In this case, the dollar will regain ground due to safe haven demand. So it’s too early to claim victory for the euro as much will depend on the developments around the trade tensions.
by HelenRush
EURUSD: bearish risks persistThe dollar is trading mixed on Monday, after a retreat late last week. The risk-off sentiment has ebbed somehow amid the upcoming US-China trade talks, which eases the upside pressure on the greenback. But the bearish potential sill looks limited as investors don’t hope for a major breakthrough in the resuming negotiations. As for the EURUSD pair, the price is under a selling pressure again, following two days of recovery. The 1.15 area remains the key on the upside, and the longer the single currency stays below this level, the higher is the risk of a deeper retreat, down to the 1.13 major support. The buck could receive support this week from the FOMC meeting minutes due on Wednesday, while the upcoming Powell’s testament at Jackson Hole on Friday could help the USD to stay afloat this week amid the optimistic market expectations. Traders will also continue to follow the US-China trade developments as any signs of easing tensions will limit the dollar’s upside potential. The immediate resistance for EURUSD comes at 1.1450, while support lies at 1.14. A break below this level will open the way to 1.1370.
by HelenRush
Dollar bullish trend intact  Major currency pairs have been consolidating on Friday amid a lack of fresh catalysts and news. The risk-off tone has abated but investors refrain from more active buying and remain cautious as any negative news headline could easily derail the emerging optimism in the global markets. As such, the dollar is trading under just a mild selling pressure and signals it is not yet ready for a deeper correction. For a more aggressive decline in the USD index, a robust and sustainable risk-on sentiment is needed. There is a risk that Trump’s aggressive behavior will prevent easing of trade tensions between the US and China, even as the two countries are planning to resume the talks next week. So the greenback will likely remain within its bullish trend, at least as long as the risks stemming from a trade war persist. Besides, the dollar is supported by further Fed rates hiking and rising inflation. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD pair, which is attempting to challenge the 1.14 area, remains attractive to sell on rallies and will likely fail to stage a sustainable recovery, at least in the short term. 
by HelenRush
Dollar retreats ahead of US-China trade talks Risk-off sentiment has ebbed on Thursday as global investors received a hope for de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China as the two countries will hold trade talks in late August. Against this backdrop, the dollar safe-haven demand has abated, which opened the way to a recovery in major currencies. However, markets remain rather cautious and refrain from euphoria as they remember the previous talks in May – after the discussions, Trump has escalated the trade conflict in June. So traders beware of the same scenario, though a chance for easing of the tensions somehow improves market sentiment. As such, the greenback could get under more pressure in coming days should investors continue to switch to a risk-on mode. Further recovery in the Turkish lira adds to the amore positive sentiment in the global financial markets. On the other hand, euro and pound upside potential will remain limited as there are still concerns over the Turkish risks and Brexit developments, respectively. In the short-term, EURUSD needs to regain the 1.14 threshold in order to set the scene for further recovery.
by HelenRush
Brent: downside risks prevail Crude oil prices are making shallow recovery attempts on Wednesday, after yesterday’s decline to lows marginally above the $72 figure. The bulls refrain from more aggressive actions as market concerns over geopolitics keep increasing, fuelling fears of a decline in global oil demand. The Trump’s trade wars threaten to derail global growth and shatter global oil consumption as a result, which is the main source of concern in the market for now. And any sign of weakening economic data in China hurts crude oil prices. Against this backdrop, signals of increasing output add to the bearish pressure. As such, the recent news of a recovery in Libyan oil production recovery above 1 million bpd served as a catalyst for sellers. Earlier this week, Brent dropped to mid-April lows just above the $71 figure. And this level remains the immediate bearish target that could be reached in the short term as recovery attempts continue to attract sellers. The EIA will release inventory and production data later today, and another increase in crude oil stockpiles will further derail Brent’s positions.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
BULLISH MOMENTUM ON ETHEREUM What do we have with this chart? ETH is one of the assets that lost most of the market cap in recent days, more than 53 billion dollars have gone ethereum since May 2018 The last time it was so oversold, made the price of having a bounce of more than 100% in a few days Bear Market Still not over yet The Price will follow BTC, if BTC goes down The "hammer" candlestick means bullish reversal of trends STOP LOSSES ARE VERY IMPORTANT IN BEAR MARKETS d.stockcharts.com
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarketMinds
EURUSD: bearish risks persist The EURUSD pair has been trading close to one-year lows, though made some recovery attempts yester-day. The price is clinging to the 1.14 figure and lacks the impetus to stage a more sustainable and pro-nounced recovery. Chances for a steady rise above the 1.15 barrier are low as this level served as a firm support for a long time. In the short-term, weaker-than-expected German Q2 GDP data has limited the euro’s local bullish poten-tial, while a better risk sentiment has weakened the upside pressure on the greenback. So the current dy-namics in the pair looks neutral and the risk of a retreat below 1.14 persists. In a wider picture, much will depend on the developments around lira’s woes. A base-case scenario on this front could send the single currency even lower on the back of exposure of some of the largest euro zone creditors to Turkish crisis. Therefore, as long as the risks from this side persist, the single currency will remain vulnerable and unattractive for the bulls.
by HelenRush
Gold enters a new bearish phase Spot gold keeps losing ground on Monday, with the price extending loses to the critical $1,200 support. The yellow metal hit $1,210, the lowest level since March 2017, which is the last line of defense ahead of the key $1,200 support. A break below this level will open the way to fresh long-term lows and will mark a new bearish phase for the market. As the US-China trade jitters showed, gold has really lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset as the risk-off sentiment fuels USD demand instead. The same is in the case with the Turkish crisis that came into focus amid a dramatic decline in the Lira. Considering the changing status of the precious metal, there is a risk of further drop, despite the record net short positioning points to a risk for an upside reversal. As such, a challenge of the mentioned psychological support will open the bearish road to $1,997. This is the intermediate support on the way to $1,190. On the other hand, should the $1,200 figure remains intact, the metal could try to regain the $1,215 area.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush