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Bitcoin set for range-trading mode After a 10% decline, BTCUSD started to recover and climbed back above $9,000 on Friday. The latest retreat, triggered by profit taking and the sale of the Mt. Gox trustee funds, was taken as buying opportunity, and the $10,000 is back on investors’ radars. Good news for the industry this week is that cryptocurrency exchange Gemini announced its partnership with Nasdaq, which will allow the company to better monitor trading activities on its platform. Meanwhile, John Pfeffer, partner at Pfeffer Capital, said that bitcoin is the first real asset that could meaningfully replace gold. A quick rebound from lows around $8,600 highlights the cryptocurrency market is getting healthier and more consistent. The Relative Strength Index for bitcoin points to a neutral stance for the time being. It means that we may see some consolidation in the short term. The price will hardly break the psychologically important level $10,000 any time soon as the market will need some additional impetus to do it. On the other hand, there are no significant bearish signals as well. Therefore, the pair is likely to further oscillate around $9,000 looking for further direction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
BTCUSD: $10k is a hard nut to crack Bitcoin price is sinking lower for a second day in a row as a result of a corrective retreat from mid-March highs. BTCUSD attracted sellers as it was trying to challenge the $10,000 mark on Wednesday, and since then, the price has dropped to the $8,600 area. The most obvious reason behind the fall is profit taking. It looks quite natural that some market participants decided to partially exit longs at six-week highs as the psychologically important $10,000 mark looks like a hard nut to crack from the first attempt. The depreciation could be exacerbated by the statement from the former CEO of PaypalBill Harris who called bitcoin “the greatest scam in history”. However, in the bigger picture, this message is not a major driver for the market, which has already got used to similar criticism. In April, the digital currency has appreciated an impressive 40%, and the bullish trend may well be resumed after a local correction, as the price is sinking to lower levels, which look more attractive for opening new long positions. The industry fundamentals look much healthier now, when the market has survived all the regulatory mess at its early stages.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Gold: all eyes on 100-DMA Following yesterday’s limited recovery attempts, spot gold prices are back under pressure. The yellow metal failed to keep above the $1,330 level and staged a retreat on Wednesday, threatening the $1,322 area once again. The key driver behind the metal’s bearishness and lack of sustainable upside impetus is the dollar’s widespread rally, fuelled by the 10-year US Treasury yields that jumped above 3% for the first time in four years. Should the yields continue the ascent after a break of a psychologically important level, gold could fall quite dramatically in the nearest future. The additional downside pressure on the yellow metal comes from easing North Korea tensions and the decreasing risk of a US-China trade war. As for technicals, the prices are now within striking distance from the key 100-DMA around the $1,318 figure. The metal is trading above this line since late December. Should the mentioned level give up, we could see another bearish wave, probably, to $1,1312 in the medium term. To cancel this scenario, the asset needs to climb firmly back above $1,335 zone.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin bulls back in action Bitcoin gained more than 10% over the last week and continues its bullish ascent for a seventh day in a row. During the morning trading on Tuesday, the price has refreshed a 40-day high just below $9,300 and looks set for another leg higher. Earlier, the bull run has accelerated after a break above the $8,500 resistance. The current dynamics may show that the industry has already gone through major concerns over regulation around the globe. If so, the market will look healthier and more stable going forward. The local factor which could bring the digital currency a relief as tax-related selling ahead of the U.S. tax deadline last week is over. It looks like the cryptocurrency bull run is back. At least, technicals signal a substantial upside pressure over the last few days. A break above the 100-DMA around $9,100 also shows there is further growth potential in the short term, especially if we see a daily close above the psychologically important level $9,000. The next upside target is the $9,400 area which may turn out a rather strong local resistance.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent: profit taking is a buying opportunity Brent is trading in a corrective mode today after a nearly flat closing on Friday, with the barrel is now treading water around the $73 level. The current profit taking looks limited for the time being, and should the prices refrain from losing the intermediate support at $72,80, there will be a chance of regaining the bullish move in the short term. Aside from technical factors, positive sentiment in the crude market was tempered by further rise in the US drilling activity. As Baker Hughes reported, the drillers added five oil rigs in the week ended April 20, to 820, which is the highest since March 2015. It signals that another rise in the US crude production is on the way, and fresh data this week may confirm this dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s tweet on “artificially” boosted oil price had only limited and short-term impact on Brent. The broader picture in the oil market remains bullish as OPEC’s efforts, Venezuelan crisis and the risk of reimposing US sanctions against the Iranian exports continue to support prices which are also propped up by increasing global demand amid a steady growth in the global economy. However, in the short term, further downside correction is possible, which looks like a good buying opportunity with the prospect of a recovery above $74.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin escapes the range After yesterday’s consolidation, BTCUSD has accelerated its ascent on Friday. The coin has finally managed to make a clear break above the $8,250 threshold and reached $8,500 for the first time since late March, up 3.5% on the day. The latest move is more of a technical nature, as there is no any meaningful news in the industry at the moment. It looks like bitcoin finally dared to follow altcoins which are growing substantially. Following a dip below $6,500 earlier this month, the digital currency was gradually recovering towards the $8,000 mark and spent a few days in a consolidation mode around this psychological level. Now, after a spectacular bullish break, the coin may target the next local resistance at $8,900 over the upcoming weekend. However, there is a risk of profit taking at the current levels, therefore, traders should be cautious with longs above the $8,000 figure which has become a support again. Should the retreat take place in the coming days, the pair will need to keep above the intermediate support at $7,840.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Oil bulls inspired by Saudi Arabia Crude oil prices jumped Thursday to the highest since late 2014 amid speculations that Saudi Arabia set for pushing prices even higher. US crude oil inventories decreased over the last week, which also supports the bullish move in the market. Tomorrow, OPEC and its partners will meet in Saudi Arabia, and market participants expect the group to announce its preliminary plans on prolongation of the deal in order to further support the global market. On Wednesday, it was reported that Saudi Arabia would like to see crude prices at $80 or even $100. This was taken as a signal that top oil exporter is committed to a longer-term cooperation in order to reach this goal for a successful Aramco IPO and funding its major economic reforms. Brent broke above the $74 mark and refreshed three-and-a-half-year tops around $74,70. The bulls were also inspired by crude inventories fall in the US, despite production continued to rise. From the technical point of view, prices may challenge the next psychological barrier at $75. However, to do this, the market needs strong signals from the upcoming producers’ meeting due tomorrow.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin will stabilize after the US tax day BTCUSD registered a fresh three-day low on Tuesday and failed to close above the key $8,000 mark. However, today, the cryptocurrency jumped 3% in minutes and is trying to keep above the psychological level at the moment, +2.25% on the day. The cryptocurency market remains volatile, and in this case, it may well be connected with the US tax deadline. As the tax day passes, bitcoin could stabilize somehow, and its further prospects may get more bullish. As such, there is a growing chance of extending its recovery from lows below $6,500 to $8,500 and above. From the technical point of view, the key on the downside is the $7,600 area. It I important for the pair to keep above this local support in order to escape a more aggressive sell-off in the future. The goal for the bulls now is the intermediate resistance at $8,200. The digital currency needs a daily close above this figure to stage a more sustained ascent. There are short-term bearish risks for bitcoin, while its longer-term prospects look more constructive, despite the continued regulatory crackdown around the globe.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent set for further bearish correction After a five-day winning streak, crude oil prices retreated on Monday, as geopolitical worries have abated. Easing concerns about escalation in Syria fuelled a partial profit taking at attractive levels. Brent is trading flat today, following failed attempts to regain the bullish impetus during the morning trading. As global oil markets come closer to rebalancing, prices start to show a more significant reaction to geopolitical risks posing a threat to supplies from Middle East in particular. However, this factor is traditionally unstable and unreliable in the longer term. In a broader picture, the market is still supported by OPEC+ efforts as well as by expectations of extending oil cut deal in June. On the other hand, the bullishness is restrained by US shale drilling and production increase. In the sort-term, Brent will focus on fresh US inventory and production data, which may show another rise and therefore put prices under a bearish pressure, especially as the geopolitical factor recedes. As such, Brent will hardly be able to climb back above the $72 mark in the nearest future. The immediate support comes at $71. Should the asset lose this level, profit taking may accelerate in the short-term.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
1
Bitcion needs a move above $8,500After a 2% gain over the weekend, bitcoin price is correcting lower on Monday. However, the downside momentum looks limited for the time being, which highlights the decreasing volatility in the cryptocurrency market. BTCUSD rallied from $6,900 to levels close to $8,500 within seven days, and the current retreat looks quite natural from the technical point of view. Many market participants feared a major correction to take place after an abrupt rally, when the price spiked aggressively to $8,000 within just 30 minutes last week. But the digital currency stayed afloat and hasn’t fuelled profit taking, which may point to market stabilization and its nature which is gradually getting less speculative as day traders leave the industry. Going forward, however, it’s too early to call a bottom as sellers may still reemerge. In the short term, bitcoin needs to keep above the key $8,000 figure in order to continue its ascent. But the selling pressure could intensify around the $8,400-8,500 area. Cryptocurrency traders should always remember that sentiment in this space can shift very quickly.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin back on a bull run?Since the start of April, bitcoin was mostly treading water below the $7,000 threshold. The volatility decreased, and there were no any interesting and significant drivers in the market as of late. But three days ago, the demand started to reemerge, and on Thursday, the digital currency jumped north aggressively. Today, BTCUSD continues to attract buyers, probing fresh April highs above $8,000. Interestingly, there was no any clear catalyst behind the rally. The cryptocurrency market in general saw major bullish spikes yesterday. Partly, the reason is a technical one as after numerous attempts to break below the support at $6,400, traders started to exit shorts which eventually caused a self-sustaining chain reaction. Therefore, the key driver behind the recent jump is just the easing selling pressure. It’s so far unclear, whether the virtual asset will be able to maintain the current bullish impetus. But the market is obviously remains volatile and unpredictable. Therefore, it’s better to be cautious for now as profit taking may emerge soon. So far, it’s too early to say that bitcoin is back on a bull run, as we need to see a more sustained and less emotional gains down the road.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent enjoys a “geopolitical rally” Crude oil prices climbed to the highest levels in more than three years Wednesday amid the ongoing tension in the Middle East. Brent touched levels above $73 and retreated to $72 today. The market remains bullish as there are lingering concerns over supply disruptions due to the Syrian factor as well as the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The already healthy rally was fuelled further yesterday by Donald Trump who warned Russia to prepare for a strike on its ally, Syria. So far, the president hasn’t taken decision on the matter, which caused some relief in the global markets and therefore has somehow eased the upside pressure on crude prices. Brent has ignored the negative US oil inventories data which showed larger than expected build, by 3,3M barrels, while production topped 10,5 mln for the first time. So, as the geopolitical concerns start to abate, crude oil could turn bearish, as there are no significant fundamentals behind the current rally which looks to aggressive from the technical point of view. To avoid such a scenario in the short-term, Brent needs to keep above the $72 mark. Daily close below may open the way to further correction.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bullish signals for gold Gold prices climbed to one-week highs around $1346 Wednesday, as the greenback continues to decline against major currencies, retreating to two-week lows according to the USD index. The yellow metal is appreciating for a fourth straight day, also due to its safe haven status amid the lingering geopolitical concerns. Spot gold is yet to confirm its bullish move. As long as prices remain below $1,348, there is still a risk of resuming the slide in the short-term. The nearest test both for gold and the dollar is the upcoming US CPI data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting, due later today. Dismal inflation figures could intensify the bearish pressure on the buck, which will send the metal even higher. From the technical point of view, spot gold is ready for another bullish break in case of a successful retest of a local resistance $1,348. A break above will open the way to the next hurdle at $1,354. This scenario will realize in coming days, should the CPI and FOMC meeting minutes disappoint the USD. A fresh wave of trade war fears could also add to gold’s bullishness.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Will Brent challenge $70 again? Crude oil prices are extending this week’s recovery after a major sell-off on Friday, with Brent is approaching the $70 threshold for the first time since the start of the month. The barrel is up 1.18% on the day, and the key question now is whether the prices will have enough impetus to challenge the key psychological resistance in the short term. The major driver behind the current bullish dynamics is the abated fear of a US-China trade war which runs the risk of undermining the global economic growth and, therefore, global oil demand. Due to investors’ relief on this front, Brent has managed to shake off the bearish pressure for the time being. Nevertheless, the current picture doesn’t look sustainable as risky assets may come under pressure again, should any fresh signs of trade escalation emerge. In addition to this, there is a risk from the US data. Today’s API numbers may point to further inventory increase, and if the growth turns out substantial, the report may serve as a catalyst for profit taking at high and attractive levels. In this scenario, the asset will retreat from current highs below the $69 figure, though the bearish potential will likely be limited due to a favorable risk environment globally.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin remains vulnerable After a three-day retreat, BTCUSD staged a rebound over the weekend and attempted to regain the $7,000 threshold on Monday but the sellers reemerged recently and sent the price into the negative territory again. Bitcoin is now down 1.75% on the day. Over the weekend, the digital currency broke several upside barriers as the sentiment in the industry has improved markedly. The reason for bulls awakening was the report that George Soros’s hedge fund is planning to trade cryptocurrencies. The news was especially impressive for the market as the famous billionaire called cryptocurrencies a bubble in January. In another sign of growing acceptance of bitcoin, Venrock, a venture capital firm that is backed by Rockefellers, is planning to start investing in virtual currencies to diversify its portfolio. These are good signals for the long-term future of the industry as more and more day traders leave the market, opening the way for large and institutional investors. This should provide the market with a healthier ground and to reduce its volatility which remains relatively high amid its speculative nature. As for the technicals, the current bearish move could be limited by the $6,400 support. In this case, the pair will maintain the opportunity to regain the $7,000 mark. But on the whole, bitcoin is still vulnerable, and recovery attempts will likely remain shallow for the time being.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Bitcoin has a chance of recovery BTCUSD continues to suffer losses on Friday after yesterday’s drop by 1.2%. However, the price manages to keep above the key $6,400 mark so far, which prevents it from falling to early-April lows below $6,000. The cryptocurrency still fails to attract buyers and stage a rebound, trading in the negative territory for the second consecutive week. Despite all the headwinds, bitcoin has a chance to show a healthy recovery this month after a dismal March as April is historically considered as one of the best trading months for the digital currency. Over the last seven years, its price appreciated five times in April. Moreover, the potential buying of Monex Group by a major Japan’s regulated company Coincheck could add some optimism and confidence to the industry. From the technical point of view, the BTCUSD pair is trading around a critical point. Should the selling pressure intensify in the nearest future, and the price break below the $6,000 threshold, the virtual currency will be vulnerable to more aggressive losses, before buyers emerge. But in our base case scenario, we expect bitcion to meet buying interest around the above-mentioned psychological support, though the recovery process will hardly be fast and easy either.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent lacks bullish drivers Brent has recovered from yesterday’s two-week lows below $67 but lacks momentum to show a substantial corrective rebound on Thursday, oscillating around the $68 threshold. The markets look mixed on controversial US inventory data and signals from global stocks. The US crude oil stocks decreased sharply last week, but production continued to grow and hit fresh record volumes. The initial market reaction to the report was bullish, however, we don’t see any significant reason for a sustained rally in the context of US data as the threat from non-stop increasing production doesn’t abate. The only positive driver for Brent now is the potential reimposing US sanctions on Iran next month. But the market participants shouldn’t too rely on the prospects of a major decrease in Iranian exports as it was in 2012, because China will hardly join the action this time, given the severe trade tensions between two countries. Technically, Brent needs a clear break above the $68 level and enough bullish impetus to probe the local resistance of $68.40 which will open the way to $69. However, the current rebound in risky assets won’t be enough to fuel such a recovery as the market needs some additional drivers.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Another bumps in the road for bitcoinThe first quarter was the worst one in bitcoin’s history. And the start of Q2 doesn’t look promising either, though it may turn out better down the road. After yesterday’s corrective rebound, the digital currency failed to secure its gains and slides again. The price faced resistance around $7,500 and is losing the $7,000 threshold on Wednesday, -4.55% on the day. The recent short-term rally was fueled by reports that Japanese online brokerage firm Monex is considering buying Coincheck, the exchange which suffered a high-profile hack early this year. This gave some confidence to market participants as Monex is a regulated public company, and this takeover may raise chances for mainstream digital currency adoption. However, this boost wasn’t enough for a sustained recovery and the virtual currency had to resume the descent. It looks like the market participants now tend to sell bitcoin on rallies, fearing new negative shocks in the volatile market. On the other hand, as long as the price remains above the early-February lows of $5,800, the bullish potential remains. Therefore, the cryptocurrency may continue its consolidation within the familiar range in the short-term until more significant drivers pull the price out of this channel. Daily close below the $7,000 mark will darken the short-term technical outlook for BTCUSD.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
EURUSD in wait-and-see modeThe EURUSD pair continues to oscillate around the 1.23 level since last week, with the immediate obstacle for bulls is the 20-DMA which is now below 1.2350. The single currency obviously lacks the upside impetus and drivers to show a more consistent trading. However, the pair may receive the catalyst which will help it to decide on the direction, at least, in the short term. On Wednesday, the euro area CPI numbers are due. Core inflation is expected to have accelerated to 1.1% from 1.0% YoY in March. CPI is forecast to increase by 1.4% from 1.1%. Should the consumer prices really show a faster growth, the euro will get a bullish boost as strong inflation numbers is the key precondition for the ECB to exit stimulus and start raising interest rates. Another key event for EURUSD this week is Friday’s US NFP report. The dollar could rally if employment and earnings increase as it will be a signal for stronger inflation. Therefore, the volatility in the pair may increase substantially during this week and the euro may break the current trading range. On the upside, the key is the 1.2350 hurdle. A break above will open the way to the next bullish target 1.2420. Meanwhile, below 1.2280 the price will slide to 1.2240 and 1.22.
by HelenRush
BTCUSD set for corrective rebound Bitcoin is attempting to switch to a recovery mode on Monday after a major sell-off during the last week. The bullish momentum looks too timid so far to call a reversal from the area of two-month lows below $6,500, reached on Sunday. Having dipped to as low as $6,387.50 yesterday, BTCUSD is trying to regain the $7,000 mark as a break above will ease the immediate downside pressure. By the way, the cryptocurrency market was hit hard generally last week amid the never-ending fears over global regulation as well as crypto ads blocks by major social networks including Twitter. However, the current bearish trend starts to signal some signs of exhaustion and may come to an end in the nearest future. Technically, the digital currency is ready for a corrective rebound. Bitcoin managed to hold above the $6,000 threshold and looks attractive for buying at the same time. Following a break above $7,000, the price will target the next local resistance $7,600. The current levels may be especially interesting for long-term investors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin can’t stop bleedingBTCUSD is extending its bearish move on Friday, finishing March with losses of 40%. The downside pressure has intensified following a break below the $8,000 mark, and after failed attempts to regain this threshold, the bulls had to give up. The price was testing early-February lows below $6,600 in the morning, now and attempts to cut losses and climb back above $7,000 which is the immediate local resistance. The regulatory pressure on the industry has increased substantially recently. In another bearish sign, two more Japanese crypto exchanged had to cease their operations this week as both companies failed to secure a license from the nation’s Financial Services Agency. And more to come, with the regulator issues warnings to other trading platforms. The “Japanese factor” is a substantial blow for the cryptocurrency market as this is one of the countries that fuelled the crypto mania last year. Twitter’s decision to block crypto ads following similar steps from Google and Facebook, and Bank of Montreal’s resolution to ban its customers from using accounts to transact with cryptocurrency merchants, add to the gloomy short-term picture. Against this background, the downside risks for BTCUSD persist. At the same time, bitcoin will hardly severely extend its current bearish wave as some buyers may start to emerge and prevent it from crashing below $6,000 where fresh early-February lows lie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin enters the danger zoneBTCUSD continues to bleed since last Sunday and has now entered the danger zone. Should the cryptocyrrency fail to attract buyers in the short term, it may show an even more significant bearish wave. Bitcoin is probing fresh 11-day lows on Thursday, getting closer to the crucial $7,000 mark. In the charts, there is a distinct bearish signal. The 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average which is a death cross, traditionally warning about a sustainable downtrend. However, we should remember that we can’t fully apply similar traditional models to this market, so in this case, it could be just a signal for further sales for the time being, but not in the long term. Regulatory concerns are still there, and the recent crypto ads ban by such giants as Google, Facebook and Twitter don’t add optimism at all. The additional downside pressure came from China, where the PBOC said that they will launch crackdown on cryptocurrencies this year. Obviously, the industry is yet to overcome the regulatory challenges, and bearish risks from this front will continue to hurt digital assets down the road. But if positive long-term forecasts are anything to go by, bitcoin’s bearish periods are still good buying opportunities for patient investors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush