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Gold suffers amid month-end flows Gold prices edge lower on Wednesday as the greenback is on the rise against major rivals on the back of month-end flows, supporting the US currency. The trade war fears persist, and risk-off mood still prevails in the global stock markets. However, as the yellow metal has lost its shine as a safe haven asset, it doesn’t get any boost from the current environment. Spot gold is extending its bearish correction from mid-February highs just below the $1.357 mark and is already trading close to the $1.333 figure. A break below will open the way to $1.330, should the greenback continue its intraday ascent. As the USD’s bullish potential still looks limited, there is a low chance for extending the retreat to the $1.315 area for the time being. In the longer term, considering high volatility in the stock markets, especially in Wall Street, gold may eventually regain its safe haven status, should the potential trade war start to pose a threat to the global economy. The medium term prospects will further depend on USD moves. So far, there no any significant signs of a reversal in the current bearish trend in the greenback.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent eyes $70 ahead of API dataAfter the initial jump on Monday morning, crude oil prices lost their steam and retreated on a daily basis. Today, Brent is attempting to regain the bullish momentum but the impetus looks limited as the market eyes fresh weekly API data. Brent is treading water around $69.70, +0.36 per cent on the day. The overall tone in the market looks bullish and the asset feels the additional support from the improved risk sentiment as the trade war fears continue to recede. The bulls also hope for possible tighter sanctions on Iran. However, we wouldn’t assess this factor as positive for the longer-term prospects as Tehran may simply diversify its exports and find other buyers for its oil. Brent remains below the $70 threshold ahead of weekly API report. Should the numbers reflect just a modest increase in inventories, the current upside bias won’t be hurt much. Some market participants expect to see a drawdown of stockpiles. In this case, the barrel will likely attack the $70 level again, though the market will be traditionally more focused on the official EIA data due Wednesday. In the longer term, the market mood will continue to depend on US data as well as on further signals from OPEC.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: bulls need fresh entry pointsBTCUSD continues to trade in a bearish mode since Friday, after another failed attempt to break above the $9,000 mark. The digital currency is trading with a strong negative bias on Monday, losing over 6% on the day. The recent weakness in the market was mainly due to two major factors: the announced ads ban by Google, as well as the story between the Japanese Financial Service Authority and Binance exchange. But following the emotions, technical factors got into the game and now they set the tone for bitcoin, along with the ever-present speculative factor. The local bearishness may well send the virtual currency to one-week lows around $7,200 or even lower as the price is testing the $8,000 psychological support, signaling further losses ahead. As we remain more bullish over bitcoin’s longer-term prospects, another sell-off is likely just a new opportunity for opening long positions going forward. As soon as the current bearishness is exhausted, the speculators will likely start to look for fresh entry points, assuming that there are no any negative steps, reports and news in the industry in the nearest future. The key to the upside is the above mentioned barrier at $9,000. A break above could open the way to $12,000.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: rally is over?After a spectacular ascent earlier this week, bitcoin struggles to regain the bullish momentum. The price touched mid-March highs just above the $9,000 figure but failed to make a decisive break of the psychological level and gave up to the bears. The cryptocurrency is attempting to keep above $8,000 on Friday. The latest sell-off, though not a very aggressive one, came after reports of further crackdown on digital currencies by Japanese authorities. In particular, the national Financial Services Agency has issued a warning against Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency exchange Binance for operating in the country without registration. The regulator also warned about some penalties against the company. The regulatory warnings and actions are not new to the cryptocurrency market, and a relatively tepid bitcion response to the news confirms this. However, as Binance is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by traded value, the industry may yet feel the impact from the potential steps by the Japanese regulators. By the way, against this backdrop, Binance is reported to plan opening an office in Malta which is considered by the company as “very progressive when it comes to crypto and fintech”. As for the technical picture, BTCUSD needs to close above the $8,000 level in order to avoid further bearish pressure in the short-term. The immediate local resistance lies at $8,700 – this is the barrier on the way to $9,000 and above.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
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Brent and its fear of heights Crude oil prices extended a spectacular rally yesterday and touched early February highs around $69.50. But the major psychological resistance of $70 has scared the bulls, and Brent faded its earlier spike on Thursday, trading almost 1.5% lower on the day. The bullish move was recently fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, increasing the risk of reduction in oil export from one of the largest OPEC producers. Against this background, traders started to eagerly price in a faster global market rebalancing after the expected introduction of new US sanctions against Tehran. The US inventory data gave the additional impetus to prices as the EIA reported a decline in crude oil inventories of 2.6 million barrels for the week to March 16. However, the rally was to aggressive and made Brent a bit overbought in the short-term charts. Besides, prices have reached very attractive levels for profit taking. So, the market participants decided to use this opportunity, which has triggered a downside correction. The barrel is now approaching the $68 mark, and to prevent a more aggressive retreat, the asset needs to keep above this area for now. The immediate risk for prices is the potential fresh wave of risk aversion on Trump’s announcement of new import tariffs against China.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Gold remains vulnerable Following yesterday’s sell-off, spot gold attempts to recover and resume the ascent, with prices fail to show a robust bullish move since mid-February, when the current downside correction started. Since the start of the week, the yellow metal can’t regain the $1.320 mark which is the key obstacle for bulls now. The local recovery attempts are limited by the $1.1318 level, and the bullion hasn’t recouped the yesterday’s losses yet. While the longer-term prospects for the market still look decent, the immediate risks are pointing to the downside. The precious metal could resume the bearish move, should the Fed hike rates today and signal a possibility of four hikes this year instead of three during the upcoming meeting. The new Fed governor Jerome Powell can give the markets some hawkish signals, as he did it in February. In this scenario, the greenback will appreciate across the board, which in will turn put gold under a bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the risk of a deeper sell-off in the medium term is rather low as long as spot gold keeps above the March low of $1.302.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent: bullish potential is limited Crude oil prices have resumed their ascent on Tuesday after mild losses overnight. Brent extended gains to fresh March highs around the $66.50 area where the barrel has bumped into resistance. Despite the current recovery, the bullish potential remains limited on the back of lingering concerns over the US shale production as well as the persistent risk aversion in the global markets. The local support for the crude oil market comes from tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The additional bullishness is the result of the latest signals from the joint technical committee of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, who highlighted the upcoming market rebalancing between 2Q and 3Q this year. The group reported further global inventories decrease in February. Meanwhile, shale producers continue to expand their activity, and the upcoming data from the US will likely signal continuation of this trend, which could derail the current recovery attempts in prices. Another risk event for Brent is the results of the two-day Fed meeting. The potential Powell’s hawkish comments on hiking rates will trigger the greenback’s rally across the board. In this scenario, oil prices will resume the downside move. Therefore, chances of breaking above the $66.80 resistance are low at this stage.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin is nervous ahead of G20 meeting The cryptocurrency is recovering strongly after a weekend meltdown, with bitcoin is back above the $8,000 mark in early trading on Monday. On Sunday, the price briefly dropped to almost 1.5-month low of $7,247.50 but encountered dip buyers and recouped losses quickly. The recent plunge was attributed to report that Twitter Inc. was going to ban cryptocurrency ads in the coming weeks, similar to Google’s decision last week and Facebook’s step in January. However, the company itself has not confirmed the decision yet, and the market participant decidednot to overreact to unconfirmed rumors. Aside from technical factors, the trigger for a spectacular rebound was the Financial Stability Board (FSB) president Mark Carney’s letter to finance ministers where he noted that “currently, these crypto-assets do not pose a risk to global financial security”. This unexpectedly soft rhetoric by Carney gas somewhat decreased market concerns over today’s G20 meeting, where digital currencies regulation will be on the agenda. Though there is a risk of some aggressive statements and comments from European ministers in the over the coming two days, the downside potential for bitcoin will likely be limited, and “buy the dips” strategy will remain attractive for traders. So, in case of another sell-off, BTCUSD could attract buyers around the $7,000 mark. Anyway, the volatility may be higher in coming days, which requires caution from traders.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent is at a crossroads Crude oil prices struggle to find a clear direction on Friday, continuing their consolidation around the $65 level. Market participants are somehow apathetic due to a lack of meaningful drivers in the commodity markets for now. Brent is attempting to overcome the $65 local resistance, but can’t clear the $65,40 area for the last three days already. Such a dynamics may point to conflicting factors in the market. On the one hand, the lingering concerns over US shale production continue to weigh on prices, as well as a widespread risk aversion on the back of global political tensions. On the other hand, the greenback’s persistent weakness and high OPEC discipline play in favor of the asset. However, at this stage, these bullish factors are just limiting the downward pressure and can’t fuel a sustained demand for Brent. Therefore, crude prices will likely continue to struggle in a relatively tight range until fresh drivers emerge. In the short term, a break above the 20-DMA at $65.20 is needed in order to accelerate the ascend and avoid the intense selling pressure. This scenario is at risk however ahead of the upcoming Baker Hughes data which may reflect a higher number of oil rigs and send the prices lower.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: $6,000 back in the game? BTCUSD extends its bearish momentum, setting fresh downside targets following a break below the key $8,000 threshold, to a five-week low of $7,603. By mid-day, the pair has trimmed intraday losses and is attempting to regain the psychological level, trading around $8,150. After the initial attempts to shrug off Google’s decision to ban online ads promoting cryptocurrencies, ICO and related products from June, bitcoin attracted a bearish wave and as a result intensified its bearish correction that started earlier this month. In other words, the step from the tech giant, which is similar to Facebook’s ban in January, served as an additional catalyst and a new selling opportunity, while bitcoin and its peers had already been in a corrective mode by the time Google’s decision was announced. As the dust has mostly settled, the digital currency could show a recovery in the short term as the asset looks more attractive for bulls at current levels. However, the broader picture shows the price may yet dive to lows around the $6,000 mark, should “Google-style” news emerge. A daily close above the $8,000 level will signal a better short-term technical picture, while a sustained break below could bring more bears to the market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin still focused on $10,000 Bitcoin remains in consolidation mode after failure to hold above $10,000. The recovery attempts look too timid this week, but the currency remains on hunt for the psychological resistance. The price ran into offers around $9,400 on Tuesday, and settled just above the $9,000 threshold today. Interestingly, the digital currency has mostly shrugged off a fresh portion of negative news. In particular, following Facebook’s lead, Google is reported to ban cryptocurrency and ICO ads starting from June. Meanwhile, Thailand plans to impose a 15% withholding tax on gains from cryptocurrency trade. Later this month, the government will introduce a law to regulate cryptocurrencies and ICO. A limited response from the BTCUSD pair signals the digital asset is getting more immune to regulatory news as traders learn to take the gradual legitimization for granted and hope that current crackdown is good for the longer-term future of the industry. Bitcoin remains somehow unsettled, though the volatility continues to decline. In the short term, BTCUSD will likely continue to fight for the $10,000 level, but there are few chances for a decent and sustained growth at this stage.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Shale boom deters oil bulls Crude oil prices are trying to regain the bullish momentum after yesterday’s dip below the $65 mark. However, Brent lacks the impetus as the threat of US shale production prevents the asset from a steady rebound above the 20-DMA above the key local level mentioned above. As long as the asset remains below this area, the downside risks prevail. The market participants refrain from buying crude oil futures amid risks from the US. The concerns increased following a new report by the Energy Information Administration on Monday. The agency expects that shale output at seven major oil and gas plays in the country will climb by 131,000 barrels per day next month and will hit a 6.954 million bpd. In the short term, Brent will likely further struggle to break above the $65 mark. By the way, the longer prices remain below this area, the more likely the asset is to fall the victim of stronger bearish risks. Another negative trigger may come from today’s API report on crude oil inventories. Should the release reflect another increase in US stocks, the downside pressure will intensify. In this scenario, the barrel could retest the $64 support, where dip demand may follow.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin finds dip demand againFollowing a five-day losing streak, BTCUSD regained the upward momentum on Friday and is now within striking distance of the $10,000 threshold. Over the past week bitcoin shed about 20% of its value, but it was not the only digital asset suffering big losses, with the whole market was bleeding as well. Technically, the latest retreat looked rather appropriate on the back of profit taking after another rally to local highs above $11,500. The reason for the sell-off was another wave of fears about the regulatory crackdown around the globe. In an unstable regulatory environment, it’s quite logical to cut exposure in the volatile and still immature market. The cryptocurrency was hit particularly hard after the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced it will require digital asset exchanges to register with the federal agency. Despite the continuing speculations about the vague future of the highly underegulated and inconsistent cryptocurrency market, bitcoin continues to show a more stable dynamics since the December rout and therefore attracts more traders. The fact that the price makes higher lows in the daily charts, favors fresh bullish attempts in the short-term, with $11,500 area remains key for buyers. As long as the price is below this barrier, the upside risks are limited.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
EUR: will the ECB drop its “easing bias”?The EURUSD pair is extending its bullish run, headed toward the fifth daily gain in a row. The price faced local resistance around 1.2450 and has moved off highs slightly, while keeping the upside bias. The current euro’s strength is mostly due to the persistently negative dynamics in the greenback across the board. Meanwhile, the ECB meeting is due tomorrow, and euro bulls hope the currency will find additional support from the central bank’s statement. Many traders expect the European regulator to drop its so-called “easing bias” and signal the coming “hawkish” shift in the monetary policy, which could be perceived as the first step towards policy normalization. Such assumptions are based on the minutes from the last meeting that showed the ECB could announce changes to monetary policy in “early” 2018. Should this happen, EURUSD will get a significant bullish impetus and rise back above the 1.25 threshold. However, there is a risk for this scenario as the central bank also mentioned in the minutes that the euro exchange rate was a source of uncertainty. Considering the currency remains strong and continues to trade close to its three-year highs, Draghi may opt to be patient and keep the cautious approach, which will be a disappointment for the bulls. But even so, the potential downside pressure on the pair will likely be limited as the greenback remains under a significant pressure.
by HelenRush
Brent: bearish risks re-emerge Crude oil prices showed biggest one-day jump in nearly three weeks on Monday. The momentum has slowed down since then, however Brent keeps afloat today moving towards the immediate goal at $66.00, up 0.43% on the day. The combination of risk-on mode that returned in the global markets and a weakening US dollar has created the proper conditions for extending the upside momentum in commodities. The recent Genscape report showed a drop in crude inventories at the U.S. storage hub in Cushing, which added to the positive dynamics in the oil markets, in addition to the International Energy Agency’s positive comments on global demand growth. In the short-term, the industry is focused on the news from Houston, where a CERAWeek conference takes place. Traders expect the U.S. producers and OPEC will discuss the current environment in the global oil market and give some encouraging signals that could support prices. The current Brent bullishness is mainly due to these hopes. Further on, the market will be digesting fresh inventory numbers from API which are due later today. Another build up in crude stocks may derail the impetus and prevent Brent from a break above the $66 threshold, especially if tomorrow’s official data confirm further production growth. In this scenario, the prices could dive below the 64.50 support.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin chugs along Slowly but steadily, bitcoin is gaining its bullish momentum, rising for the fifth day in a row. BTCUSD has refreshed two-week highs around $11,500 during the morning trading and is trying to keep above the psychological level $11,000. The market has largely shrugged off the recent comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who called bitcoin a failure and a lottery. It looks like the industry is getting used to such statements and learns to ignore this kind of criticism. Meanwhile, behind the recent bullishness around the cryptocurrency is the released full support for the so-called SegWit. The new update makes bitcoin transactions cheaper and faster, therefore, attracting more buyers into the market. The additional support comes from the growth of the Lightning Network technology, which allows almost free bitcoin transactions. From the technical point of view, the digital currency is yet to confirm its break to the upside. The key signals point at further bullish bias, but the buyers need to overcome the local resistance around $11,800 in order to challenge the next psychological barrier $12,000. A daily close above the $11,000 mark could confirm the bullish short-term prospects of the BTCUSD pair.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Trump sinks AUD and CAD The commodity currencies – Australian and Canadian dollars – have steepened their decline provoked initially by falling crude oil prices, along with the greenback recovery. The additional bearish driver emerged following the Trump’s decision to impose major tariffs on steel and aluminum from other countries – 25 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. The bearish pressure has eased somewhat on Friday, though both currencies remain vulnerable to further losses amid potential negative trade developments. It is so far unknown, whether Canada is on the list, but traders accelerates looney sell-off on the announcement yesterday evening. As Canada is the largest supplier of both steel and aluminum to the U.S., the risk for the country’s industry is high. Trump promised to impose tariffs next week, so in the short-term, the nervy traders will likely continue to short CAD which reached fresh lows for 2018 around 1.2895 on Thursday and is now trading around 1.2840. The aussie also pressed the mid-December lows yesterday and touched levels barely above the 0.77 mark. Risks for AUDUSD are also bearish, considering that the Australian annual steel exports worth around $130 million. Besides, the growing fears of a real trade war between the US and China will inevitably put commodity currencies, including AUD, under a more intense pressure. With this in mind, the next downside goal for the aussie is the 0.77 level, while USDCAD could test December highs above 1.29 on fresh signals from Washington.
by HelenRush
Cryptocurrency market is getting healthier The price of bitcoin has mainly shrugged off the bearish news from the U.S. where the SEC shows signs of ramping up pressure on the ICO market. On Wednesday, the regulator issued scores of subpoenas and information requests to ICO-related companies. BTCUSD retraced following the report, but managed to keep above the key $10,000 mark and regained the bullish bias, trading around $10,600 on Thursday. The cryptocurrency market seems to be gradually getting adjusted to the idea that the industry is going to be regulated globally and that this is positive for its longer-term future as a more healthy market will attract more participants and will be able to build trust among traders eventually. Technically, bitcoin looks set for another attempt to regain the $11,000 level which keeps bulls in control since February 21st. This scenario will remain relevant as long as the pair keeps above the $9,200 support. Overall, since the mood in the crypto space has improved over the last month, more traders may get attracted to the market and therefore follow a “buy on dips” strategy in the medium term on the back of lower market volatility and more sustainable BTCUSD trading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent is ready to go below $66 Brent attempts unsuccessfully to stay in the positive territory on Wednesday following a yesterday’s sell-off on the back of global risk aversion and US dollar demand fuelled by rather optimistic comments from the new FED Governor Powell. As a result, prices had to give up the $67 mark and retreat to lows barely above the $66 level which is now the immediate support. The additional bearish driver for the oil market was this morning’s report that reflected the decreasing factory activity in China, the world’s largest oil importer. Besides, it is reported that Iraq has agreed a deal with Kurds to resume crude oil exports through its pipeline to Turkey. So far, the market hasn’t reacted to the news, as many traders doubt the deal will be implemented immediately, while in the longer term it may become a bearish signal for prices which tend to retreat on decreasing geopolitical tensions. The market continues to closely monitor the USD dynamics while looking forward to the upcoming official weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA. Should the report show further increase in production, Brent could pull back to the recent lows and even test the $66 mark in case the crude oil and gasoline inventories rise as well.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin poised to extend rebound Bitcoin is continuing to march higher as it jumped back above the $10,000 threshold and now aims for the next psychological target of $11,000. The digital currency spiked 4.5% on the day, having already recouped last week’s losses. The cryptocurrency market remains rather volatile, but the range of fluctuations is gradually narrowing, which tends to attract more buyers. Another positive development in the market is a more restraint reaction to the regulatory news. The latest example of this is the latest mute response from digital assets to the comments from the EU financial service commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis who noted that the EU stands ready to regulate cryptocurrencies and could draft new legislation in months to come. All this seem to indicate the industry is getting more stable and steady. Keeping in mind the December events in the cryptocurrency market, investors do not rush into crazy buying and prefer to trade bitcoin in a narrower range. Still, there are still risks of more abrupt moves as more and more traders return to the market. In the short term, the digital currency needs to keep above the $10,000 mark so that to retest the local resistance at $10,800 which in turn will open the way to $11,000.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
EUR: challenges ahead The EURUSD exchange rate has resumed its recovery on Monday, with the greenback is again under pressure on the back of easing Treasury yields and rising global stocks. The price is back above the mark 1.23, trading within a striking distance from the 20-DMA at 1.2365. The short-term prospects for the single currency look relatively healthy, mainly due to the US dollar weakness. The USD still can’t attract sustainable demand, despite the signs the Fed may have to hike more aggressively in order to prevent the economy from overheating. A fresh signal for the interest rate hike expectations will be the US GDP and PCE numbers on Wednesday. Should the data exceed expectations, it could boost USD buying and send the euro to the lows in the 1.2250 area. A more significant risk for the single currency will be the “super Saturday” when we will know whether the members of Social Democratic Party approved the coalition deal, while Italy will hold the general election. The prospects for rising political tensions in the region may trigger a wave of profit taking in the EURUSD pair later this week and send the single currency back below the 1.22 mark.
by HelenRush
Gold: longer-term prospects remain bullish Gold prices are retreating since last Friday, with yesterday’s losses were the largest since June 2017. Today, the metal is trying to slow down the downside move witnessed on the back of a widespread recovery in the greenback. In the short-term, gold may remain under some bearish pressure, while the longer term prospects remain positive. The USD demand is rather a local technical correction after an aggressive sell-off seen last week, then a sign of an underlying demand coming back. The dollar’s fundamentals still point to the downside, as the U.S. faces the so-called double deficit, as well as the threat of narrowing the interest rate differential with other global central banks embarking on monetary policy tightening. Therefore, the current bearish correction in gold prices could reverse as soon as the dollar bears return to the market and send the USD index to three-year lows. The immediate resistance lies at $1,331; a break above will open the way to the next target at $1,339. The key level to the downside remains at $1,300, while the short-term support is expected in the $1,322 area.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent heads toward a more significant slide Brent crude futures failed to shake off the yesterday’s weakness and look set to suffer another disappointing day on Tuesday, with prices slipped below the $65 mark again. The market lacks momentum to preserve gains and seems to attract more bears in the short term. The recent move lower is on the back of a widespread dollar appreciation amid increasing Treasury yields. A lack of risk appetite doesn’t bode well for Brent as well. These are the local bearish drivers for the asset, while the broader picture shows the market participants continue to fear the soaring U.S. production which is threatening to offset OPEC members’ efforts. This is the reason why crude prices have mostly ignored OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo’s statement that the cartel’s compliance with the provisions of the agreement reached 133% in January. In the short term, Brent will likely to continue to follow the greenback’s dynamics. Tomorrow, the market will focus on API data. Should the report show an increase in crude oil and gasoline stockpiles, prices will head toward a more significant slide and may threaten the $64 level with the next target at $63.20. This scenario could be exacerbated by a continued USD demand.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush