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Oil capped by lack of progress in trade talks Brent crude gained 1.35% on Tuesday and registered fresh late-September highs above the $63 handle. Oil prices saw three days of gains in a row amid a widespread optimism over a possible US-China trade deal. However, as the positive momentum in risky assets wanes due to a lack of fresh signals from the trade front, Brent struggles to extend the rally as well. Also, traders were disappointed by a bearish API report which pointed to a rise in crude oil inventories by over 4 million barrels. Now, market participants, fearing negative data from EIA due later today, are shifting to a partial profit taking. However, the downside impetus is fairly limited so far, and the $62.50 area serves as a local support zone. In the short term, oil prices dynamics will depend on the general risk sentiment in the global financial markets which seems to be turning sour amid a lack of further progress towards a partial trade deal. As such, there is a risk of losing ground in the oil market – Brent could get back below the 100-DMA around $61.50 should the prices fail to make a clear break above the $63 handle. In the weekly charts, oil looks neutral as long as Brent is stuck between the 100- and 200-SMAs. To improve the technical picture, the futures need to confirm a sustained trading above the $60 psychological handle.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Gold struggles amid trade optimism Hopes that Washington and Beijing will manage to strike at least a partial trade deal fueled risk-on sentiment across the board in the global financial markets. As a result, safe-haven gold failed to extend the rally initiated in the second half of last week. The bullion registered local highs just below $1,516 on Friday and retreated back to the levels marginally above the key $1,500 psychological handle. Both China and the US expressed confidence in striking a phase one deal, with Washington considering rolling back tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese goods and expecting Beijing will make similar concessions. Against this backdrop, major global indices continue to post records, anticipating a final deal at some point. In turn, a widespread optimism caps the upside attempts in gold prices at this stage. Nevertheless, should the two sides fail to give some fresh positive signals in the near term, the optimism could fade gradually. In this context, the bullion may receive some boost after a local retreat. Also, gold may trim losses if the upcoming US service PMIs come in worse than expected. Should the prices fail to stay above the $1,500 level in the near term, the immediate support will come around $1,495 and then at $1,491.
by HelenRush
1
EURUSD unfazed by a pickup in risk sentiment EURUSD failed to keep the bullish momentum going on Monday despite the risk-on sentiment fueled by positive noises on the US-China trade talks, as mixed European PMIs weighed the common currency. The pair struggled around the 1.1175 area which caps gains since mid-October. In a wider picture, the euro still remains in a range limited by the 200- and 100-DMAs. Eurozone PMIs came in a tad higher than expected, with German figures pointed to a slight pickup for the first time in four months. However, in general, the activity in the region remains depressed and will likely pull down GDP in the fourth quarter. Against this backdrop, the euro struggles to extend gains even as risk sentiment improved decently, with Chinese yuan rising to the highest levels since mid-August since both China and the US highlight further progress towards a comprehensive trade deal. Technically, EURUSD needs to clear the above mentioned local resistance in order to challenge the 200-DMA just below the 1.12 handle, which is the key level to watch for euro bulls. On the downside, the pair should stay above the 1.1120 zone, where the 100-DMA lies, so as not to lose the upside bias.
by HelenRush
Pyramiding money management. 2 part. Short LTC/USD This is the second part of the training material on the method of capital management - pyramiding or scaling as it is also called. Let me remind you once again in the first part of working long with an uptrend, we earned $ 20,000 - $ 52,000 time. Read more about the process of working in long in this trading idea: Pyramiding How to earn 52000 with a risk of 5% from 20000 1part After the breakthrough of the upward channel and exit from a long position, a downtrend and a downtrend are formed for us on the LTC / USD pair. Here is my idea for June before breaking through the rising channel. LTC / USD June The trend is broken. A downtrend and a downtrend formed. Here is my trading idea for August: SHORT LTC uptrend is broken. Trading in the downward channel. LTC / USD August ______________________________________________________ Let's go back to our example of LTC / USD money management by pyramiding in a downward channel. When working long in an uptrend, we earned $ 52,000 on this coin from an initial deposit of $ 20,000 . Round up to $ 50,000. Divide the amount into 3 parts of the entrance. A less risky entry point is the first, like a coin at the beginning of its downtrend and a big profit from the uptrend. Therefore, the first purchase will be a large amount. First purchase - $ 30,000 Second purchase - $ 10,000 Third purchase - $ 10,000 Stop loss is always 5% and moves behind the price of a downtrend. Stop loss should always be behind the downtrend line. (outside the upper boundary of the downward channel). Breaking it will mean a potential change in trend. _____________________________________________________ As a result of currently open trading deals, we have a profit: 1 purchase for $ 30,000 + 42% = $ 42,600 (net profit $ 12,600) 2 purchase for $ 10,000 + 19% = $ 11,900 (net profit of $ 1900) 3 purchase for $ 10,000 + 0% = as soon as we opened a deal (there is now an option to break the downtrend). The risk is always 5% The total net profit of work in the downward channel is currently + $ 14,500 $ 6,400 total position ______________________________________________________ If all 3 sales target work out as planned, then the potential from the entry point: 1 purchase - $ 53400 (net profit of $ 23,400). 2 purchase - $ 17,000 (net profit of $ 7,000). 3 purchase - $ 16,200 (net profit of $ 6,200). Total short profit: $ 86,600 (net profit $ 36,600). _____________________________________________________ If we take into account the work in an uptrend that we started with $ 20,000, then the net profit is $ 66,600 and this is on the same coin with a 5% risk and during this period we will only make 8 transactions. This is not fantasy, this is reality. I worked like this for more than a year on the ETH / USD pair in the downstream channel, all the ideas and work in the channel were published in my chat, also partially had ideas here, for example this one for December 2018 I complicated the work a little, but I increased my profits several times, I worked from trending channels. Also, most of the trading transactions were made from the trend lines of the internal channel. This trading idea for December 2018, but I started trading this downward channel from March 2018. ETH / USD _______________________________________________________________ Money management by pyramiding or scaling. The pyramiding method of money management (scaling) today is very popular among traders with experience. The essence of this method is the sequential opening of several transactions on the trend. We increase our position as profit grows, not loss. Pyramiding method of money management is perfectly combined with a positional trading strategy. Also, this method increases the deposit well when a trader trades in upward (long work) and downward channels (short work). Pyramid trading is a strategy that involves adding a new position to an existing profitable position. In other words, these are purchases or sales in order to add to an existing position, after the market has developed movement in a profitable direction for you. You are increasing your position. At the same time, the size of each next transaction may change taking into account the result of the previous one, that is, the position increases when you make a profit in the previous transaction to increase the deposit at a faster pace or after receiving a loss to accelerate the exit from the drawdown. This is the main advantage of using pyramiding in trading. If you did everything right, then do not expose your trading capital to additional risk. In fact, you reduce risk as the market moves in a profitable direction for you. The main thing is to correctly determine the trend and "sit" on it. The most difficult moment is to determine the beginning of a trend. On a bull trend it is better to always work on the bull side; on a bearish trend , on a bearish side. Always follow the trend! However, just as pyramiding can be profitable, it can also be dangerous if used improperly. The main thing is to determine the trend correctly. Many experienced traders consider this method the only possible way to quickly disperse the "deposit". One well-defined trend lasting only 1-2 weeks can double, triple the deposit with the right approach. Moreover, the risk is only 2% -5%. It is very important, do not confuse averaging and pyramiding, since these two approaches are completely different. Averaging occurs when the price goes against our position. And pyramiding is the other way around when the price is in your favor. Pyramiding allows you to achieve a super effective profit / risk ratio by transferring stop loss as the trend moves in your favor. ______________________________________________________ How to carry out a set of positions according to the trend, when to enter. Another important issue in pyramiding is: when do you actually enter a deal, gain a position more? The answer to this question can be divided into several approaches. Each of them has its pros and cons and in different situations will give different results. Just who is comfortable and who is more used to what they trade. Entrance to the transaction during the construction of the "pyramid": 1) On kickbacks. 2) On signs of continued movement. For example, it can be a powerful volume entry or a hammer candlestick pattern. 3) During the breakdown of important levels. ___________________________________________ How to use stop loss when building a "pyramid". Naturally, with pyramiding, stop loss is used. It is recommended to use a separate stop for each entry (to buy the position). As the trend develops, it should be pulled up. For example, I use 2 stop loss. Regardless of how much I had as the trend of inputs on kickbacks grew. The first is the top, which is about 30% of the entire position. As a rule, it is equivalent to the stop loss level of the last entry (buy by trend). The second is 70% of the position, this is when the trend breaks. Both stop losses are tightened as the trend grows. It is logical to use stop loss outside of some important levels. The trader as a whole should decide on the overall risk that he is ready to bear. For example, it is 3% -5%. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the following positions in such a way that, taking into account the profit of the previous steps, compensate for the loss of the subsequent ones and keep within 3% -5%. You need to understand that with the correct determination of the trend, and the correct scaling of the pyramid, a loss of 3-5% is purely arbitrary, as long as you have a stop knocked out, you can already double or triple the total profit. The main thing with the price increase is not to forget to tighten the stop loss. And so put so that they are not knocked ahead of time. As a rule, I go out when stop loss is touched, just two, as the first one can knock out, and the price can go up further. It is also worth adding that sometimes on some coins due to their volatility , their feet are knocked out by 5%, so that this does not happen, the size of the stop is not so important as the moment of entry. ________________________________________________ Profit taking. How to take profit when managing money using the pyramid method? There are several different methods of closing positions: 1) According to the planned profit. For example, you planned to take profit + 100% from this tool. You have reached your take profit. We left the position, took profit and forgot about this tool. 2) With a slowdown in profit growth. For example, you have already doubled the profit on this trend and this is quite enough for you. The trend has moved in a lateral movement, profit is not growing, or growing slowly. It is more advisable for you to close this profitable deal and transfer the profit to the trend that is emerging, thereby building a new "pyramid" on a more rapidly growing trend. 3) At the first sign of a trend reversal. Not breaking through important resistance levels, reversal patterns, breaking the trend line . 4) By tightening stop loss. Knocked out stop loss. Depending on which stop loss ordering technique you use, either single or fractional for each entry separately. Stopped, took profits and forgot about this trading tool. They began to search for a new instrument with a good entry point at the stage of trend emergence. Started the construction of a new "pyramid". In my opinion, a reasonable solution is to partially take profit at some maximum levels with the trend growing. I am also part of the position about 30% aggressively trading increasing the asset. An important point at local maximums I sell these 30% almost completely, I already shop a large amount of assets from the support if I trade in an uptrend. As the trend progresses, I constantly pull up the lower stop loss (main position). 70% of the position is exited when the trend unfolds completely. _______________________________ Benefits of money management by pyramiding or scaling. Pyramiding works well with strong steady trend movements. The advantages of pyramiding: 1) the bistro is increasing the deposit. 2) minimal risks, and with the development of a trend, there are no risks. 3) psychologically comfortable trading due to the absence of great risks. _____________________________________________________________ Disadvantages of money management by pyramiding or scaling. As you already understood, pyramiding works well in the trending market. If the market turns into a flat or a trend movement is accompanied by deep pullbacks, then the pyramid can be destroyed very quickly. On few liquid, weak instruments, this method does not work! On cryptocurrencies, this method only works on TOP. Coins such as BTC , LTC, ETH. This method does not work: 1) In lateral flat movement. 2) With a weak trend. 3) In a trend with deep pullbacks, in which there will be uncertainty about further movement and they will knock out stops. _______________________________________________________________ We all heard the well-known trade axiom: reduce your losses, and give the opportunity for profit to grow. This is the aspect of money management in your trading system that issues major winners. Money management throws aside the subjective sensations present in people. Richard Dennis
BITFINEX:LTCUSDEducation
by SpartaBTC
Pyramiding How to earn 52000 with a risk of 5% from 10000 1partPyramiding. How to earn $ 52,000 with a risk of 5% from 10,000 1 part. LTC/USD Jobs in Long. Money management by pyramiding or scaling. When building a "Pyramid" from money using the pyramid method - your foundation of the pyramid is knowledge and experience. One of the main features of this method is minimal risks with high rates of income. In let's look at an example on the chart. LTC is a strong uptrend. Entering a transaction is not from the bottom of the price itself, but when the trend is confirmed. Trading only according to the trend, exit of the price for trend aisles - means exit from the position. Stop loss is always 5% below the uptrend line that you are trading. As the price rises, the stop loss pulls up. This is very similar to positional trading. But unlike position trading, you buy an asset as the trend develops, thereby increasing the position. From the example, we see that $ 20,000 is allocated for the coin. They are broken into at least 3 parts. 1 entry is the largest at the beginning of the trend-$ 10,000. The next 2 entries as the uptrend develops for $ 5,000. Risk is absolutely always observed 5% of the position. Breaking the uptrend line means a complete exit from the long market position. If you are not sure that the trend has finally reversed, you can exit part of the position. In this example, the profit was $ 52,000 + $ 32,000 net. I also want to emphasize, we did not buy at the very lowest prices and did not sell at the very peak of the price, 2 transactions were done quite already at an expensive price. The main thing is to follow the plan, understand what you are doing and what is happening. It is necessary to kill the “herd instinct” in oneself, try to buy the cheaper, sell the more expensive, buy for good luck, work without a strategy and plan. You work like everyone else - it will be like everyone else - nothing! ________________________________________________________ Pyramid mechanics in numbers. The amount allocated for this coin is $ 20,000. Broken into 3 parts $ 10,000, $ 5,000, $ 5,000. Profit from purchase №1 of $ 10,000 + 225% = $ 32,500 (net $ 22,500). Profit from purchase №2 5000 $ + 145% = $ 12,250 (net $ 7250). Profit from purchase No. 3 of $ 5000 + 45% = $ 7250 (net $ 2250). Total profit for all 3 purchases $ 52,000 Net profit $ 52,000-$ 20,000 = $ 32,000 The risk has always been 5% Next, I will describe in more detail this method and all the nuances. _______________________________________________________________ Money management by pyramiding or scaling. The pyramiding method of money management (scaling) today is very popular among traders with experience. The essence of this method is the sequential opening of several transactions on the trend. We increase our position as profit grows, not loss. Pyramiding method of money management is perfectly combined with a positional trading strategy. Also, this method increases the deposit well when a trader trades in upward (long work) and downward channels (short work). Pyramid trading is a strategy that involves adding a new position to an existing profitable position. In other words, these are purchases or sales in order to add to an existing position, after the market has developed movement in a profitable direction for you. You are increasing your position. At the same time, the size of each next transaction may change taking into account the result of the previous one, that is, the position increases when you make a profit in the previous transaction to increase the deposit at a faster pace or after receiving a loss to accelerate the exit from the drawdown. This is the main advantage of using pyramiding in trading. If you did everything right, then do not expose your trading capital to additional risk. In fact, you reduce risk as the market moves in a profitable direction for you. The main thing is to correctly determine the trend and "sit" on it. The most difficult moment is to determine the beginning of a trend. On a bull trend it is better to always work on the bull side; on a bearish trend, on a bearish side. Always follow the trend! However, just as pyramiding can be profitable, it can also be dangerous if used improperly. The main thing is to determine the trend correctly. Many experienced traders consider this method the only possible way to quickly disperse the "deposit". One well-defined trend lasting only 1-2 weeks can double, triple the deposit with the right approach. Moreover, the risk is only 2% -5%. It is very important, do not confuse averaging and pyramiding, since these two approaches are completely different. Averaging occurs when the price goes against our position. And pyramiding is the other way around when the price is in your favor. Pyramiding allows you to achieve a super effective profit / risk ratio by transferring stop loss as the trend moves in your favor. ______________________________________________________ How to carry out a set of positions according to the trend, when to enter. Another important issue in pyramiding is: when do you actually enter a deal, gain a position more? The answer to this question can be divided into several approaches. Each of them has its pros and cons and in different situations will give different results. Just who is comfortable and who is more used to what they trade. Entrance to the transaction during the construction of the "pyramid": 1) On kickbacks. 2) On signs of continued movement. For example, it can be a powerful volume entry or a hammer candlestick pattern. 3) During the breakdown of important levels. ___________________________________________ How to use stop loss when building a "pyramid". Naturally, with pyramiding, stop loss is used. It is recommended to use a separate stop for each entry (to buy the position). As the trend develops, it should be pulled up. For example, I use 2 stop loss. Regardless of how much I had as the trend of inputs on kickbacks grew. The first is the top, which is about 30% of the entire position. As a rule, it is equivalent to the stop loss level of the last entry (buy by trend). The second is 70% of the position, this is when the trend breaks. Both stop losses are tightened as the trend grows. It is logical to use stop loss outside of some important levels. The trader as a whole should decide on the overall risk that he is ready to bear. For example, it is 3% -5%. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the following positions in such a way that, taking into account the profit of the previous steps, compensate for the loss of the subsequent ones and keep within 3% -5%. You need to understand that with the correct determination of the trend, and the correct scaling of the pyramid, a loss of 3-5% is purely arbitrary, as long as you have a stop knocked out, you can already double or triple the total profit. The main thing with the price increase is not to forget to tighten the stop loss. And so put so that they are not knocked ahead of time. As a rule, I go out when stop loss is touched, just two, as the first one can knock out, and the price can go up further. It is also worth adding that sometimes on some coins due to their volatility, their feet are knocked out by 5%, so that this does not happen, the size of the stop is not so important as the moment of entry. ________________________________________________ Profit taking. How to take profit when managing money using the pyramid method? There are several different methods of closing positions: 1) According to the planned profit. For example, you planned to take profit + 100% from this tool. You have reached your take profit. We left the position, took profit and forgot about this tool. 2) With a slowdown in profit growth . For example, you have already doubled the profit on this trend and this is quite enough for you. The trend has moved in a lateral movement, profit is not growing, or growing slowly. It is more advisable for you to close this profitable deal and transfer the profit to the trend that is emerging, thereby building a new "pyramid" on a more rapidly growing trend. 3) At the first sign of a trend reversal. Not breaking through important resistance levels, reversal patterns, breaking the trend line. 4) By tightening stop loss. Knocked out stop loss . Depending on which stop loss ordering technique you use, either single or fractional for each entry separately. Stopped, took profits and forgot about this trading tool. They began to search for a new instrument with a good entry point at the stage of trend emergence. Started the construction of a new "pyramid". In my opinion, a reasonable solution is to partially take profit at some maximum levels with the trend growing. I am also part of the position about 30% aggressively trading increasing the asset. An important point at local maximums I sell these 30% almost completely, I already shop a large amount of assets from the support if I trade in an uptrend. As the trend progresses, I constantly pull up the lower stop loss (main position). 70% of the position is exited when the trend unfolds completely. _______________________________ Benefits of money management by pyramiding or scaling. Pyramiding works well with strong steady trend movements. The advantages of pyramiding: 1) the bistro is increasing the deposit. 2) minimal risks, and with the development of a trend, there are no risks. 3) psychologically comfortable trading due to the absence of great risks. _____________________________________________________________ Disadvantages of money management by pyramiding or scaling. As you already understood, pyramiding works well in the trending market. If the market turns into a flat or a trend movement is accompanied by deep pullbacks, then the pyramid can be destroyed very quickly. On few liquid, weak instruments, this method does not work! On cryptocurrencies, this method only works on TOP. Coins such as BTC, LTC, ETH. This method does not work: 1) In lateral flat movement. 2) With a weak trend. 3) In a trend with deep pullbacks, in which there will be uncertainty about further movement and they will knock out stops. _______________________________________________________________ To be continued...
BITFINEX:LTCUSDEducation
by SpartaBTC
2
US jobs data is a short-term risk for gold Gold looks set to post third straight week of gains, mainly due to a two-day rally after the Federal Reserve decision which sent the greenback lower across the board. However, the precious metal has yet to confirm its recovery above the $1,500 psychological handle, with the bullion shows some signs of weakness early on Friday. The Fed’s interest rate cut provided a fundamental support to the yellow metal but the positive reaction was limited as the central bank signaled a pause in its easing cycle after three cuts by 0.25 percent each. Also, traders continue to monitor developments on the US-China trade front, after Beijing admitted that it is doubting the long-term trade deal is possible with Trump. The headlines fueled risk aversion nearly across the board, which lifted gold prices to one-week highs around $1,514. In the short-term, the precious metal could be affected by dollar reaction to the upcoming US NFP employment data. The ADP report pointed to a healthy jobs growth and should the key release confirm the bullishness, including wages data, the greenback will shift to a widespread recovery mode. In this scenario, gold prices will have to retreat. Once below the $1,5000 handle, the billion will turn negative in the weekly charts.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
The Fed hints signals pause in easing, what’s next? The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected and signaled a pause in its easing cycle. At the same time, Powell highlighted that the central bank would need to see a significant move up in inflation before they could consider raising rates. The dollar was hit hard by this statement and suffered losses across the board. As a result, EURUSD jumped to 1.1150 and extended gains to 1.1170 early on Thursday. Now, as investors have nearly digested a rather neutral message from FOMC, market attention shifts to fresh economic updates, both out of the Eurozone and the United States. As such, the European CPI and GDP data could affect the euro’s dynamics in the short term, while in the US, personal spending and income will be in focus. But the key release is the NFP employment report due on Friday. The ADP numbers were solid enough, and should the upcoming data come on the positive side as well, the greenback could receive a boost and stage a local recovery at the end of the week. EURUSD needs to clear the 1.1180 area which is standing on the way to the 1.12 psychological level, where the 200-DMA lies. This resistance area is fairly strong and could send the euro lower after four days of gains, which will depend on the above mentioned data. Should the USD demand pick up again, the pair could get back below the 100-DMA around 1.1120.
by HelenRush
Powell may move the markets today The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point later today despite some of the arguments for a cut are now not so strong as earlier. But as this move has been priced in already, the central bank will likely ease the monetary policy further in order not to disappoint investors and avoid a sell-off in the stock market. The question is whether the Fed leaves the door open for further cuts in December and in 2020. Considering easing trade tensions between the US and China, as well as a much lower likelihood of a disorderly Brexit along with weaker dollar, the monetary authorities could signal a pause in easing with shifting to a wait-and-see mode in order to assess the impact from the three cuts this year. In short, is could be some sort of a “hawkish” easing. In this scenario, Powell may send the greenback higher across the board. EURUSD risks plunging below the 1.1070 intermediate support with the next target around 1.1030. However, if the Federal Reserve won’t dare to close the door to further cuts just yet, the dollar will have to extend recent losses. Anyway, the Fed’s verdict and Powell’s statement will likely trigger a pickup in market volatility.
by HelenRush
3
Oil market at a crossroads Brent crude extend the decline on Tuesday as risk sentiment looks mixed despite some positive headlines on the US-China trade deal. Traders express a cautious tone, fearing another rise in the US crude oil inventories. The American Petroleum Institute will release its stockpile numbers later today, with the Energy Information Administration follows it on Wednesday. Oil registered fresh highs around $62 on Monday but retreated quickly and got back below the 100-DMA. Brent is challenging the $61 handle today, threatening the $60.25 intermediate support that lies on the way to the $60 psychological level. Brent could retreat further in the short term should the US inventories show a decent spike, or the Federal Reserve sounds more hawkish on monetary policy that traders expect. On the other hand, the downside potential is limited due to the lingering hopes of additional measures from OPEC+ aimed at supporting global oil prices amid the record production numbers in the US shale fields. As such, the market is at a crossroads at this stage, with fresh trade-related or industry news could set a clearer tone for Brent.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Focus shifts to FOMC At the start of the week, positive comments from the US and China fueled positive market sentiment and put the greenback under some negative pressure. The two countries are getting closer to a deal but a lot of issues are yet to be resolved, which caps the risk-on sentiment. Apart from trade news, investors mulling prospects of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the two-day meeting which starts on Tuesday. The market has priced about 90% for a 25 basis point rate cut, so the central bank is unlikely to disappoint. At the same time, the dollar will show resilience should the committee indicate that it is done cutting for now. In other words, the greenback could even strengthen should the FOMC signal a pause in its easing cycle. On the whole, the argument to ease after the October meeting has weakened, as the country’s economy is broadly on rather firm footing, with household sector continues to show resilience. Moreover, the trade- and Brexit-relayed concerns have eased in recent weeks, which is also a positive development. So should the Federal Reserve signal a pause after a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, EURUSD could lose ground further and stay below the key moving averages. In the short term, the inability to get back above the 100-DMA around 1.1130 could lead to a break below 1.1070.
by HelenRush
Brent could slip back to $60 Crude oil prices struggle to keep the bullish momentum after three days of gains. Brent has encountered the 100-DMA which serves as the immediate local resistance around $61.50. The sentiment in the market looks cautiously positive, with the effect of US inventory decline gas faded already and economic growth worries continue to weigh. Today, economists in a Reuters poll said a steeper decline in global economic growth remains more likely than a synchronized recovery. On the other hand, the prospect of another round of production cuts in December and the expectations of the Federal Reserve rate cut next week are providing the market with some support now. However, this is not enough to fuel a more sustained rally, as uncertainty around Brexit and US-China trade talks persists. Technically, Brent remains above the previous bearish channel but gains this week failed to bring a meaningful breakout despite the prices have settled above the $60 handle. Also, demand worries continue to cap the upside momentum in the market. In the short term, the futures need to hold above the $61 figure as a break below this threshold will bring $60 back in focus.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
EURUSD: PMIs mixed, focus on ECB and Pence EURUSD briefly jumped to the 1.1160 area as traders cheered positive PMI numbers out of France. But the euro pared earlier gains quickly along with risk assets following German and Eurozone figures which knocked down the optimism as the numbers came in lower than expected and confirmed that the regional economy continues to struggle in October. In particular, the German services PMI hit a fresh three-year low, with the Eurozone composite index fell to the lowest level since June 2013. Now, focus shifts to the ECB meeting. However, this time, it will likely be a non-event as this is the last meeting for Draghi as the president. Besides, the central bank delivered additional stimulus measures at the previous meeting. Nevertheless, any dovish statements on the state of the European economy could hurt the common currency in the short term. Also, traders will closely monitor the upcoming US Vise-President Mike Pence speech on China. Should the policymaker criticize Beijing and its policy, risk sentiment could turn sour, which would be a negative signal for the euro as well. Technically, EURUSD needs to hold above the 1.11 handle and regain the 100-DMA in the immediate term in order to avoid a more intense selling pressure. US PMI data could affect the pair’s tone later in the day as well.
by HelenRush
EURUSD turns sour ahead of ECB meeting EURUSD extends the pullback from monthly highs around 1.1180 registered at the start of the week. The pair retreated below the 100-DMA and now threatens the 1.11 handle as the greenback gradually regains strength against the European currencies amid the prevailing risk-off sentiment. Also, traders are getting more cautious ahead of the ECB meeting due tomorrow. It is widely expected that the central bank will retain the current monetary policy but will emphasize that it stands ready to adjust its policy instruments after a raft of easing measures implemented at the last meeting, including lower rates and the reintroduction of quantitative easing. Besides, it will be Draghi’s last meeting as the president, so he is not expected to announce any new measures. As such, the potential downside pressure for the common currency from this event will likely be limited. On the other hand, further Brexit developments could negatively affect the euro in the short term. According to the latest reports, Labour MP Richard Burgon said the party will back a general election if the EU agrees to extension. Technically, the inability to hold above the 1.11 support in the near term could lead to further losses to the 1.1070 area. On the upside, the pair needs to regain the 100-DMA in order to challenge fresh highs should the ECB’s tone come as neutral.
by HelenRush
1
Gold lacks impetus amid US-China trade hopes Gold prices remain in a consolidative mode for over a week already, with bullish attempts are capped by signs of progress in the US-China trade talks and prospects of approving the Brexit deal. The bullion failed to challenge the $1,500 figure last week and struggles for direction since then. On Monday, the yellow metal was rejected from the $1,495 intermediate resistance and slipped back to $1,484. In early trading on Tuesday, gold prices are making shallow recovery attempts as investors cheer positive developments on the trade front, with both the US and China made encouraging statements which lifted hopes that further progress could be made in negotiations before the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries due in mid-November. Also, let’s not forget that the prospect of lower US interest rates at the end of October remain alive, which could increase the appeal of the precious metal at the expense of weaker dollar. Besides, risk sentiment could deteriorate at any moment should Brexit developments turn negative. Technically, gold needs to get back above the $1,500 handle in order to see a more pronounced upside momentum down the road.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Oil prices: upside potential limited Oil prices failed to confirm a break above the $60 handle and slipped back below $59 on Friday. Today, the prices are making some recovery attempts but the selling pressure still persists as investors show a cautious tone amid the ongoing Brexit turmoil, US-China trade frictions and weak economic data. As such, the British parliament delayed a crucial vote on a Brexit withdrawal deal. In the latest news, the UK Chief Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak noted that the government will introduce Brexit legislation shortly. As such, uncertainty on this front remains elevated despite the risk of a no-deal exit has declined substantially. In other news, Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He said the US and China made concrete progress in resolving their trade issues. On the data front, Japan’s exports fell in September for the tenth straight month, while South Korea’s exports for the first twenty days of October declined by nearly 20% year-on-year. The figures highlighted the risks stemming from the trade war and capped investor optimism. Against this backdrop, Brent will hardly be able to stage a decent and sustainable recovery any time soon, and bullish attempts may further attract sellers. Technically, the downside risks could recede partially in case of a decisive break above the $60 psychological handle.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
GBPUSD in limbo In less than a week, GBPUSD gained nearly 6% against the greenback. Yesterday, the pair refreshed five-month highs around the 1.30 psychological level which served as a resistance. On Friday, the pound retreats marginally and has settled around 1.2850, awaiting further development surrounding Brexit. The recent rally came as the EU and UK agreed on a Brexit deal. Still uncertainty remains. As such, DUP leader Foster reaffirms that they will oppose Johnson's Brexit deal while Wilson, another DUP official, said they will encourage Tory lawmakers to oppose Johnson's deal. Now, traders are bracing themselves for a crunch vote in the UK Parliament tomorrow, with the outcome of the vote will trigger a significant market reaction early next week. Should the Parliament vote against the deal, the pair could decline dramatically from the current levels and get back below the key moving averages. In the immediate term, GBPUSD may stay afloat, with sterling derives some support from recent comments by Bank of England’s Ramdsen who said that smooth Brexit would put rate hikes on the table.
by HelenRush
Gold may gain in the short-term Gold prices have been trading with a bearish bias since September, with the bullion had to retreat from long-term highs just below $1,557, down to the current levels below the $1,500 handle which now stands as the immediate resistance. Once above, the yellow metal could try to regain a more robust momentum. In the short term, gold may resume the upside move after yesterday’s rebound should risk sentiment in the global financial markets continue to deteriorate amid uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union and over further progress in the US-China trade relations. Also, investors are nervous ahead of a much-anticipated EU leaders’ summit, which could bring more Brexit news. As the DUP party said it will not support the deal, market participants will likely be cautious ahead of a major event. Technically, downside risks prevail as long as gold remains below the mentioned $1,500 handle, with the chance of a break above this hurdle remains high. On the downside, the yellow metal needs to hold above the $1,475 figure in order to avoid further losses down the road. Meanwhile, in the weekly charts, there is a scope for further decline, probably to $1,440, where long-term buyers could reemerge.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Oil prices: downside risks persist Brent crude extends losses for a third day in a row. Trade-related optimism has waned quickly and investors show a limited demand for risky assets. Moreover, tensions between the world’s two largest economies could reemerge as recent developments demonstrate. In particular, China vowed to take countermeasures against the U.S. in response to a bill that favors the Hong Kong protesters. This could be followed by a respective reaction from Washington which could trigger an even more cautious tone in the markets. Another bearish factor for Brent is another downbeat growth outlook from the IMF which soured expectations for global demand. The Fund has downgraded growth estimates to 3.0%, which is the weakest rate since the 2008 financial crisis. Also, Brexit-related headlines affect the market these days. Today, hopes of a Brexit deal got dented as the UK government is downbeat on chances of a Brexit deal. In these conditions, oil prices will likely remain under pressure in the short-term, with traders focus now gradually shifts to US oil stockpiles data from API and the EIA due today and tomorrow respectively. Technically, Brent may remain below the $60 handle in the near term and will continue to threaten the $58 level which stands as a local support area.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
EURUSD lacks a directional bias EURUSD finished marginally lower on Monday, and the upside bias resumed earlier today, with the pair continues to hold above the 1.10 handle. In general, the common currency continues to fluctuate in a limited range, with bulls remain cautious ahead of German ZEW survey. The economic sentiment index is anticipated to fall further to -27.3 in October from -22.5 in the previous month. Should another economic report confirm the rising recession risks in the Eurozone’s largest economy, the selling pressure could reemerge. In this scenario, EURUSD will get back below the 1.10 figure in the short term. In a wider picture, downside risks persist, with market participants remain cautious as the latest US-China trade negotiations lack details and make investors doubt in a significant progress towards a full-scale trade deal some time later. On the other hand, the pair could receive a boost from positive developments on Brexit front, but this boost will likely be a short-lived one. Technically, EURUSD could target the 1.0960 area once again should the pair fail to hold above the 1.10 support again.
by HelenRush
Trade optimism hurts gold but risks limited Gold prices dipped to early-October lows on Friday as investors were cheering a partial US-China trade deal. As a result, Washington decided not to raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports from 25% to 30%, which brought some relief to global markets. The bullion registered a weekly low just below the $1,474 figure and finished at $1,488 on Friday. Today, the precious metal is making some recovery attempts, though the downside risks persist as long as the prices remain below the $1,500 handle. At the same time, investor optimism over the trade truce seems to be abating gradually, with risk sentiment has deteriorated already. It looks like investors prefer not to get over excited as there is a tough road ahead to the US-China trade negotiators to cut the deal, with key issues still not resolved. Against this backdrop, the immediate downside risks for gold prices are limited at the moment, with rising bets for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve will likely support the bullion in the short term. Technically, the yellow metal needs to hold above the mentioned lows and get back above the $1,500 key barrier as soon as possible to avoid a more bearish scenario.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
EURUSD heeds to hold above 1.10 Since the beginning of this month, EURUSD has been recovering gradually, after two weeks of steep losses in the second half of September. Yesterday, the euro has finally broken above the 1.10 handle amid a broad-based weakness in the greenback. Risk sentiment improved dramatically due to positive developments in Washington, with Trump said trade talks between the US and China were “going very well”. As a result, trade deal hopes lifted the markets and the positive momentum remains on Friday. EURUSD holds marginally above the 1.10 level and keeps the bullish bias intact. German CPI figures came in line with market expectations and thus failed to affect the common currency. In the short-term, traders will continue to follow trade developments, with focus now shifts to the upcoming negotiations between Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Apart from trade talks, traders will monitor signals from major central banks. The statements from ECB’s Draghi could somehow temper euro’s bullishness should he express a dovish tone on the economy or monetary policy. Also, Fed’s Rosengren and Kaplan are to deliver a speech later today, with their comments could also affect EURUSD.
by HelenRush
USDJPY driven by trade headlines The USDJPY pair is getting more volatile as signals from the trade front are rather contradictory. In Asia, the greenback briefly jumped above the 100-DMA to register one-week highs around 107.77 after an earlier dip to 107.00. The pair has settled around opening levels since then. Such dynamics confirms a heightened uncertainty around the upcoming trade talks, with investors express some hopes for a progress after a report that the US is considering a currency pact with China. Also, investors are mulling the news that the US government plans to issue licenses to American companies to sell certain goods to Chinese technology giant Huawei, which could also smooth over tensions in a new round of trade talks. Technically, USDJPY may lose the 107.00 handle once again should risk aversion reemerge any time soon. In a negative scenario, the pair may receive support just below the 106.50 area. On the upside, the greenback needs to clear the 107.80 figure which is standing on the way to 108.00. Any sign of failure of the negotiations will drive the pair lower.
by HelenRush
What to expect from FOMC minutes The upcoming US-China trade talks are in market focus now, with the two countries continue to flex muscles. In the latest move, Washington imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials accused of involvement in repression of Muslim populations. In turn, Beijing said the US was using the excuse of human rights to interfere in the China’s internal affairs. As such, the uncertainty ahead of negotiations remains high, which unnerves investors. Meanwhile, markets shift focus to the FOMC meeting minutes due later today. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve delivered a so-called hawkish rate cut in September, Investors assessed this step as a sign that it might be done cutting rates. However, considering the latest developments in economy and trade, the central bank could express a more dovish tone and hint at further cuts, as Powell did yesterday. In such scenario, the greenback may turn even lower but the potential downside pressure will be limited as the greenback derives support from its safe haven status amid the latest escalation in the US-China trade relations.
FWB:FOMC
by HelenRush