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Capitulation

BTC: Indicator Showing Potential Bitcoin BottomI was granted access to the Hall and Co Trading 2.0 indicator. This is a weekly (W) indicator for bull periods that show buy areas , targets , and stop-losses . The BSO signal forms on a weekly candle, and when it closes it indicates a buy opportunity. However when used with the BTC daily (D) chart it seems to show where the peaks are, and interestingly where the top was. Now if we look back to 2014 we can see that something similar happened that is happening now: a lack of a daily BSO for a long time. In 2014 between the last BSO and the capitulation final bottom was 1.5 years, then 3 month later another BSO. Using the same logic, then we should see a final bottom in late February/March (1 month time roughly speaking), which should take us to the 2xxx level that everyone thinks we are going to. This also ties in with the wedge and decreasing volume we are in currently. Last time this happened we crashed from 6k to 3k due to the nonexistent volume. However, this bear should technically take longer than last time due to the maturing market. You can ask TomHall for him to grant you access to the indicator.
by bobjames1
ETH nearing capitulation History shows that BTC has a cycle of roughly 55-60 days from low to low. The last bear market completed 7 cycles before capitulation and BTC is currently nearing the end of the 7th bear market cycle now. I'm expecting that in the next month BTC capitulates in a similar manner to the end of the last bear market in 2015. ETH however has a longer cycle of roughly 70 days and is nearing the end of its 5th cycle in this bear market. I'm expecting that this cycle will be its last in the bear as the cycle is currently due to complete around the same time as BTC's. If BTC capitulates as expected, I doubt that ETH will continue in a bear market and will have a similar capitulation to BTC and not wait until the end of the next cycle which will complete around the start of May. The difference in cycles was demonstrated at ATH when BTC hit ATH a full month earlier (BTC 17 Dec 17 and ETH 13 Jan 18). The vertical lines on the chart show the start/end of each cycle and the horizontal lines are areas of previous support. I expect capitulation to happen in the lower of the two blue boxes and I believe it was begin from the higher of the two boxes. I am currently short and I will go long after the capitulation event at the end of this cycle.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Chirgz20
2019 in a nutshell. The bottom depending on who you talk to! Good day traders As I'm sure a lot of you are aware, technically, there are many similarities between the 2014/2015 bear market and the current 2018/2019 bear market cycles but there is plenty of debate going on as to where we will actually end up bottoming. Many analysts are calling for a bottom close to $2500 as this fits the 2014/2015 bottoming criteria on the weekly chart where, like in Jan 2015, we would again find support at the 88.6 fib retracement level ($2400), however, other credible analysts are calling for a more turbulent capitulation and a bottom closer to $1000. There seem to be 3 camps of bottom-callers: 1) The "we have already bottomed" analysts who think $3157 was it and it's only up from here. 2) The $1800 - $2500 bottom-callers 3) The close to $1k bottom-callers Personally, I think we will have a strong bounce from all 3 levels but we will probably eventually bottom below $1k in August/September later this year, when true capitulation kicks in. If we are following the same pattern as the bear market in 2014/2015, then recent flash crash to $3400 on Tuesday might have been a temporary double bottom and we might actually be heading through our daily SMA50 to potentially test our daily SMA100 instead as the herd slowly fomo when they start believing the bottom was in at $3157. In the blue-shaded ellipses, we have our 2018 downtrend to our $6k support and our 2014 downtrend until July where we broke minor uptrend support. Notice we also had a minor uptrend before we broke that $6k support and fell to our current $3157 low which is reflected in the yellow ellipses. If we continue following the same pattern as we did in 2014, as per the yellow shaded ellipses, then we should manage to get above our daily SMA50, which has been our most recent resistance and is currently sitting around $3690, and we should have a rally soon to somewhere around $5k, potentially up to $5200 depending on the level of fomo as the "we have already bottomed" bottomers pile in. Good to see that we've managed to get back above $3550 for now. We currently have strong bullish divergence on the 12 hour MFI and RSI, and should be retesting our daily SMA50 resistance yet again. This is where we'll test our daily SMA100 as resistance for the first time since October 2018. This will also be a 161.8 fib extension of our recent wave up between $3157 and $4273 in December 2018 where recently we had a 61.8 fib retracement afterwards. We should then get rejected by the daily SMA100 and crash back through our $3k support (when the herd realise that's not the bottom) to our temporary bottom between $2150 - $2400 where the second camps of bottom-callers will be waiting with their buy orders. There will be plenty of liquidity at these levels for a strong bounce as the herd will again believe that this is the official bottom, only to repeat the fomo yet again, with an upper limit of our $4k-4400 resistance. This is where we will drop and true capitulation will take place as we slice through that $2k support like a hot knife through butter, then the $1k, finding support somewhere around $800. This is where we will revert back to the initial uptrend of the prior bull cycle and a new market cycle will commence from there. The herd will be shocked as expected but this will be the true despair stage of the market bubble. Good luck and happy trading! 2014/2015 Bear Market Cycle: 2018/2019 Bear Market Cycle:
BNC:BLXShort
by Corn_Reaper
Bitcoin looks over leveraged This is likely the ramblings of a clueless idiot but I've watched enough YouTube video's to consider myself an expert on drawing lines in places that might possibly mean something is going to happen at some point in time in the somewhat near future. For the record I'm not a technical trader so I'm not sure why you are even reading this. Don't follow my advise as I rarely do either! Now that we cleared that up I'm trying to look at longer indicators to get an idea of where the market is. Comparing the long/short ratio trend to where price has trended. I'm concerned to see longs piling up while we are sitting near yearly lows. In the past when longs were this high we had seen a large move up in Bitcoins price. However in this case we are seeing longs piling up just to hold the price in the $3400-$3800 range. While we can certainly move up it doesn't look like we have much gas left in the tank before another move down. A double bottom is possible as it would reduce the over leveraged longs to but this seem less likely to play out in my mind simply because altcoins have moved up nearly 50% since hitting there yearly lows while Bitcoin remains hanging on just above it. Shorting here seems potentially disastrous and may lead to green wick of destiny melting ones face. Like much of the Cryptoverse I'm simply looking for the right time to add to my stack. I am a hodler of last resort and true believer in the one coin to rule them all. However lately more and more personalities are claiming the bottom is in. Which is reminding me of what happened when BTC got stuck at 6K for several months. The best move is to be patient and not look to deeply into every $100 gyration for answers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RyanRogus
Will BTC really capitulate with a long wick?I know that there is a lot of controversy among traders at comparing the current bear market with the 2014/2015 bear market, but studying the historical behavior of BTC in previous markets may provide a lot of insight in the current trend. I myself did not experience the previous bear market personally. In the 2014/2015 BTC bear market the weekly RSI of the first capitulation went down to 30.4 and the second capitulation went down to 27.5. In the current bear market, the recent low in BTC brought the weekly RSI down to 29. The question everyone is asking: will BTC have another dip from here and how low will the price and the RSI go? If BTC falls rapidly it might create a lower low in the weekly RSI , but it is NOT to say that the price will create a lower low, or that it will capitulate with a long wick candle as in 2015. My reasoning behind this is that the market today is larger and more liquid than in 2014/2015, and also, everyone is looking to buy the lows in a "long wick candle capitulation". The buzzword of the day is "capitulation", which makes me question if we would ever see that type of capitulation again in this bear market. If we compare the daily RSI of 2014/2015 with 2018/2019 there are interesting similarities: After the first capitulation in the 2014 bear market (look chart below), BTC created an failed ascending triangle that did not break to the upside. This created a rising support trendline in the daily RSI that finally broke through downward. In the current bear market, the daily RSI created a rising support trendline that looks scary similar to the one in 2014/2015 (between the two capitulation points). BTC formed a (sort of) symmetrical triangle that broke to the downside, however we might be just in the process of making an ascending triangle like in 2014/2015. (illustrated by the orange doted lines in the picture below) Conclusion No one can predict how BTC will bottom in this bear market. I think most traders expect it to bottom with a long wick candle, thus BTC may act contrary to the belief of the majority, as markets always do. Please Like if you found this somewhat helpful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Cybermosfet
Bitcoin forms lower low; 1hr deathcross quickly approachingWe have followed the recent lower high with a lower low putting the bears fully in control after hitting my last ideas drop target with exact precision...we have seen a decent bounce since hitting the target but probability highly favors this as nothing more than a dead cat bounce. There is a possibility of forming a lower high here but I don't see much more being offered to the bulls than that....if that....which will ultimately be more or less a bull trap if it does occur. We can see that this drop has caused the 1hr 50ma(in orange)'s trajectory to dip significantly which should greatly speed up the timing on the 1 hr death cross. I also expect the 2hr 3hr and 4hr deathcrosses to occur soon after and for the 4hr 200ma to flip to solidified resistance..to me this seems like it could very well be the beginning of our capitulation we have been waiting on to finally bring this bear market to an end. If so I anticipate we will at the very least see the price action revisit the weekly charts 200ma where we have always seen great support...I have a feeling we could send a wick below it but ultimately believe we will be able to close any weekly candle that dips below that above the 200 weekly ma...in fact I anticipate the normal huge rebound bounce of 50 percent or so to occur once we hit bottom and that bounce will be what allows us to close above the 200 weekly ma....just my own speculation of course and not meant to be financial advice...anyways thanks for reading and good luck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
BTC BOTTOM IS IN? This chart stretches from back in 2012 using a logarithmic trend to support it all the way up to the current time. We have not yet hit the logarithmic trend which has proven to hold several times the last 5 years. We got a meeting point of the log-trend and the major weekly level from 2017 at $2950 (Bitstamp) $3000 (Bitmex). These two major trends meeting at the same place in the upcoming weeks makes me believe the bottom for this cycle COULD be in for this time, at $3000. As this is a long term chart I'm not going into detail on the lower timeframes, but I'm expecting one more leg down to $3000 with possible wick to $2900 if the $3630 level breaks before the major bounce. This study is largely speculative based on this single trend and trend-analysis, and short term positions should be taken in combination with other time frames and indicators for better strategic planning. Hit the follow button to make sure you get notified on my upcoming short-mid term analysis!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Pineapple1k
Please Sir can I have some more?Now for some optimism in this era of anticipated FUD and panic. The technicals might be bearish but just consider the divergence between the actual Bitcoin price and all of the pipeline institutional developments on the horizon for Q1 2019. Consider that Bitcoin might actually be printing a parabolic arc and is very very close to the actual bottom. This parabolic arch makes sense based on what's still to come and based on the trough aligning with our weekly SMA200 which many believe to be our last line of defense before capitulation. If you look at our SMA200 resistance on the daily chart (SMA1200 on the 4H), you'll see this is around our $6500 resistance which acted like an iron curtain during our extended stay during the $6ks. I think a daily close above the SMA200 should signal the beginning of a strong new uptrend which could potentially set us up for a golden cross between SMA50 and SMA200. If this arch plays out, then the general pattern could fit quite well within a large ascending channel where resistance is formed by connecting the 15 October swing high to the height of the arch, which gives us an upside target of $15-$16k. SMA200 on the daily chart also coincides with 29 December, the SEC's decision date regarding the Van Eck bitcoin ETF. An approval might just be what we need for a close above the daily SMA200 and since the decision has carried so much weight in the media these past few months, a rejection or deferral to 28 February could be the catalyst for capitulation, in which case the price could reach $1k based on the 168.1 fib extension from the 200 week SMA. If we do have capitulation, we still have Bakkt bitcoin futures launching on 24 January, Fidelity launching their institutional platform for Bitcoin sometime early next year, and if the SEC decision regarding the Van Eck bitcoin ETF is deferred to 28 February 2019, then this might be the catalyst since it is the very final decision date and the Van Eck apoplication has carried a lot of weight in the media these past few months. Good luck and happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
Bearish Pennant coupled with that H&S#Bitcoin found support at the base of the ascending channel to potentially form the right shoulder of that H&S. I mentioned in the previous post that we might not break channel support because there was hidden bullish divergence on the 4H so to watch the $3900 area for a possible rebound which happened at $3950, but price is now right at the apex of a large bearish pennant which gives us a potential breakdown target of between $2800 - $2860 and which is also a 138.2 fib extension from the height of the flag pole. Without a break above $4600 the bears still have the upper hand and it doesn't look like the bulls have the momentum to even get above the $4500 yet. A move above $4500 invalidates this setup. There has been gradually decreasing volume which doesn't give me much confidence in a move back above $4500 right now . I think when volume does come back, it will probably spike to the downside. Not sure it will reach $2800 just yet because we still have strong levels of support around $3500-$3600 but ultimately I believe this is where btcusd is heading, possibly this month. Before I consider the bottom to be in, I want to see a larger bearish volume spike than the one we had on 22 December 2017. We haven't had true capitulation yet and price hasn't reached our weekly SMA200 which is currently around $3100. Once we reach the weekly SMA200, hopefully we get a swing low to around $2800 but a candle close back above the weekly SMA200. A close below $2800 will probably get messy. At least $2800 has been a major area of support and resistance in the past so hopefully should hold. Good luck and happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Corn_Reaper
2014 Fractal Market Cap signaling near or at bottom*** PLEASE VIEW IMAGE BELOW AS THIS IS WHAT THE WRITE UP IS REFERENCING *** serving.photos.photobox.com 2014: 2018: We can no longer view BTC as the main source of a fractal from the 2014 crash because there are so many alts now that make up a bigger % of the market cap. Thankfully we are able to use other charting services who provide total market cap and from there are able to see uncanny results of a fractal. Shown in the attached photo below you can see the numeric points identifying the fractal set up and that we are in final capitulation. Let it be known that if we are seeing final capitulation this week then the cycle is moving about 21% faster vs. 2014 as we will achieve a bottom in ~ 320-330 days vs. 410 in 2014 from Market cap high to low. What comes after from 2014? 8 Months of ranging markets, where we see high lows being made an the bull run starting in about 260 days after the low (roughly 8-9 months). If we are moving 20% faster this should account for about 205 days/ ~ 7 months or Mid July. These are just fractal predictions, as the market could move a lot faster or slower. My guess would be faster as we see on boarding of making cryptocurrrency easily invest-able for the retail investors. The final question here is how deep will this capitulation go before we get relief? If we round out I'm forecasting a move back to $4600 or a tag of .618 (.382 if you place fib 0 to 1 upright). I believe most of the alts will be the increase in market cap where as BTC will only be about 20% of that increase. If you are interested in more updates like this and trading opportunities please contact me as I run a group called Surge Trading. We cover every alt on binance and the majors. Thanks for looking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mythrin
Parabolic Acceleration / CapitulationAfter we hit target perfectly yesterday, I decided to extend my "bottom" theory a bit. Yesterday was not violent enough, it was still tradable and simply didn´t feel like bottoming. So I tried to figure out what would feel like a bottom? A very violent parabolic drop. I assume it´s possible the last wave could be a wick and mark the end of the 2018 consolidation. Let´s see! You will know it´s bottom if you can´t manually trade anymore.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Gl4diator
1
Next bear wave incoming til end november?No-trading zone for me, I will simply wait for a breakout, considering this could be solved sideways, downwards and upwards. What I would wish for is a weekly candleclose tomorrow night above the historically important weekly EMA200 which is currently our strongest support. If we close underneath by next week´s sunday close (capitulation in a big wick down to $2.9k possible), it will probably take a long long time to recover from that. I am still learning Elliott so please don´t judge too hard if the waves ain´t fully correct...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gl4diator
2
Bitcoin referenced with historical data.(A lost cause)people dont care for the technology really./ - "fact" A wild goose chase. Nothing more. This almost most accurate representation of previous Historical Pump&Dump take the levels with a salt of grain. nobody really knows shit.But we cant even tell whats going to happen in this moment in time how the fuk are we supposed to predict the future. TA only works cause people see this happened last thus this will happen this time.(this is also just a 50% probability.) At this moment in time sitting in my room I dont even know when Im gonna sleep its already 2:14 AM. I just wanna end with this note from "The office": "bears beets battlestar galactica.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by blankz13
A Crypto Year In Review - Life ends, but death lasts foreverIt's been exactly a year since I got into this market, and it's been quite an adventure. I've learned a lot about myself, psychology, and market behavior. It hasn't been easy. However, a year of my life has gone, and I'm not really comfortable with losing any more of my life to observing this market. So, this will be my final analysis until I see fit to return, which will probably be tomorrow ; ). Just kidding. I really need a break, and it's possible you won't see me until sometime in January. Mental health is important, and this market is brutal. This is only to my small group of followers (and to myself). If you want to skip most of the text, just read the 4 bullet points at the bottom. I had a feeling that we'd eventually need to meet the log trend line formed at the end of the previous bear market. Didn't think it would happen this quickly, but here we are. As you can see, today's "bounce" happened right on that line, in the 4200 area. There are no long term supports below 4100 or so, which means bulls better hope it holds. Right now, it seems like it's failing, but the 4K-4.1K area is holding FOR NOW. The only "supports" below here that I can see are 3K, 2.5K, and 1.8K (dotted lines). It's actually pretty good that we've gotten to this area so quickly, because now we can get it over with and see if there's any real strength left in the market. There are definitely a large amount of buyers here, which is good (confirmed by volume). They may need to see this log line continue to hold before confidently entering bigger positions though. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar really does look like it's on the verge of collapse. This would be good for Bitcoin. This really doesn't look like a convincing bottom yet, which is concerning. This next drop needs to cause a significant spring, ideally all the way up to the 5200 area. Either that, or we need to stall here and slowly move up along the log trend line, as we did at the end of the previous bear market. Since this market is so crazy though, anything can happen. Bitcoin can crash all the way to 2K and rebound in a single day, if a group of whales plan accordingly. So be extra careful. I'm posting this as a YOLO long trade just for fun. If it goes up from here, it would be nice to see my chart turn green when I push the arrow :P If it crashes and burns, so be it. Lessons learned. Alts are showing some bounce attempts now...though most of these bounces are continuing to get sold, which is good for day traders, as they can just keep swing trading to accumulate more for the "real" bounce up, or the next breakdown. Volatility is clearly back with a vengeance, and if you're caught on the wrong end of a trade at this time, it wouldn't look good. This market is not a very forgiving casino at the moment. I am still more bullish on alts like XRP and XLM than Bitcoin. This can change, but they've shown such strength recently that I have become a firm believer in their resilience, and their ability to become true payment methods in the future. They are starting to show some signs of weakness though. There are also hidden bullish divergences going on in alt price action as well. For example, we should have seen BAT crashing down below 3K on the BTC ratio, but it has held 3500 quite well so far. This signals to me that it may be ready to reverse its long term downtrend against Bitcoin. Also, NANO, which I have used often to gauge market sentiment (as speculative investors see it as a "new" Bitcoin alternative), has gotten back to its 2600 support pretty quickly, although it's still struggling to hold. This is fairly bullish, nonetheless, and it's still above the $0.75 bottom from August. For future reference, I am making a list of which popular alts have shown the most strength (in my opinion), and which have shown the most weakness. This is based on a variety of factors (volume, ability to hold support since the August 13th 2018 bloodbath, active communities, strong marketing, good investor sentiment overall, etc). I speculate the ones that have shown the most strength will have the biggest returns in the near future, and many of the weak alts will remain flat for a while until improvements are made, or until they fade away completely. As with every huge speculative market crash, certain assets never recover. What goes up must come down, but what goes down doesn't necessarily have to go up. Life ends, but death lasts forever. This is why I can't waste more time on this market. Anyway, this is not a complete list. These are just specific ones I've been keeping track of over the last year, and observing their performance. I have held each of these coins, at least briefly, in the past year. Bitcoin would actually be on the weaker list, along with Bitcoin Cash, because they've been having an identity crisis (investors will likely be turned off by this), and have inferior technology to XRP and XLM. They have also dropped below support levels more than some alts. Some of the strong alts are making a case for potentially flipping Bitcoin in the future in terms of market cap value. This has something I've been saying for a while. I'll admit, it's totally speculative, but I was right at least in the short term, that XRP and XLM would continue to do well despite the market sell-off. You can read about why I predicted that in my previous analyses. Here is the list: STRONG ALTS: XRP XLM BNB NANO EOS GVT SLT (1000% since February, 500% since I bought in, even in this bear market) - The biggest winner in my portfolio, but the smallest investment (oh the irony). I sold half my stack recently back to XLM to take some profit, but I have a feeling it could go up much more long term. Still waiting to buy back lower. Patience is key in any market. NEUTRAL ALTS: IOTA BAT ADA TRX VET WEAKER ALTS: NEO ETH ENG WTC ICX OMG This list is obviously subject to change, but this is how I see it now. We'll see how all these coins do in the future. Anyway, for anyone reading this, I hope you've enjoyed some of my analyses. A year constantly observing this market is enough for me. It'll be fun to look back in a few months time to see how everything plays out. My speculations in summary: 1) XRP may very well surpass Bitcoin, and XLM may very well surpass ETH 2) Bitcoin IDEALLY needs to hold 4100-4200 to remain bullish long term, but a GIANT bullish wick to extreme lows (3K-1.8K) IS possible, so be careful. 3) Some alts look much better than others 4) Life ends, but death lasts forever. Get out and enjoy your life. Here is my recent post about the market (on the XRPBTC chart): And my recent Bitcoin analysis: This is not investment advice. I am clearly not a professional financial advisor. Just someone who knows a bit of TA and has been following this crazy market over the last year. Bye for now. Good luck! -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
2
Load up your trolleys and grab a mary poppins umbrella!Bitcoin fell to new lows as I'm sure everyone frantically knows and my previous trade was stopped out. In hindsight I should not have been using Bitfinex charts. The discrepancy between exchanges makes for inaccurate TA so I'll be sticking to Coinbase for my market direction until there's parity again. Not all bad news though, we may have had the capitulation we were waiting for. Before all the lucky perma bears start screaming the dirty $3k number all over the place, Bitcoin seems to have found support on the larger previous trendline connecting the highs in December 2017 to the highs in July 2018. This could potentially mean that the pop we had on 15 October was a break out from a prior falling wedge and we have now successfully tested that wedge as support. If we drop back into this wedge I am expecting a large rebound. RSI is also oversold at the lowest levels it has been since January 2015, so I don't believe that there really is not much room for additional selling pressure. Same applies to all relevant time frames so get shopping and load your trolleys. A move back into the apex of the previous wider falling wedge will hopefully see a breakout from there. When tether drops like this the market becomes unsettled so hopefully the volatility keeps on creeping back over the next week so the breakout can take place with strong volume. If we have a deathcross on the 3D chart between MA50 and MA200 then this trade is trade is invalidated and we stay below the trendline resistance at least until SEC decision date on 29 December 2018 imo so keep an eye on your 3 day moving averages and use appropriate risk management, especially at these levels (if you're swing trading).
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Corn_Reaper