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Capitulation

Bitcoin Macro AnalysisHere's another Bitcoin Macro Analysis: 1. D1 BB is max squeezed since the start of 2018 - high volatility major move soon (up or down) 2. volume is consolidating/declining - end of correction soon (move up or down) 3. some alts are starting to pump: XRP, BCH, LTC (both bullish or bearish) 4. shorts have declined from the record highs 40000 but are rising again towards 31000 and still above longs at 27000 (both bearish or bullish) 5. BAKKT launch in november soon (bullish) 6. ETF decision kind of postponed (bearish) 7. DOW S&P FAANG at record highs - possible stock market crash soon (bearish) 8. DXY starting to rise (bearish) 9. NVT Ratio at record highs charts.woobull.com (bearish. bullish only in massive adoption) 10. Fear and Greed Index rising (bearish or sideways) 11. We are making new higher lows since July (bullish) Common sense: 1. BTC will not drop while shorts >> longs. It will likely drop when shorts < longs or around the same level. - If everyone's shorting who's making the money? Whales/Exchanges simply won't give away their money to bears for free. - It will most definetely drop only when shorts are at record lows with longs high enough - they don't have enough liquidity to instantly drive the price up, people aren't bying, there's no follow through. - they make money by slightly squeezing bears in sideways ranges until enough shorts are liquidated, longs are on a rise and it's finally time to drop 2. Stock market crash/dip will also mean BTC drop and Gold rise which can happen prior to or around the same day just like in Feb 2018. - The opposite is not true. BTC collapse will not result in a stock market crash, but rather in a small dent - BTC in general does not correlate with DJI and S&P, only with major trend defining moves. - Some say the new Great Depression and Financial Crisis 2008 is coming 3. DXY sometimes reverse correlates with BTC on large TFs - Fed rising interest rates => DXY rises => BTC drops 4. Pumping alts may signify a BTC rally soon (bullish) or an alt season (bearish) - It's easier to pump a cheap alt and shift market sentiment to bullish - Alts have their own cycles and a cycle in relation to BTC. - In a normal market When BTC moves up a bit some alts follow, some decline - when BTC moons/crashes alts moon/crash 5-10x more. In anticipation of a BTC rally alts can pump 5-10x more than the subsequent BTC move - if an alt has already pumped prior to BTC move it won't likely pump again after - alt season happens during BTC consolidation after a major move. During this time alts have their own cycles and are less dependent on BTC pump cycle: ALTUSD -> ALTBTC -> BTCUSD -> ALTBTC -> ALTUSD alts are sold for BTC, which is used to buy other ALTBTC pairs which are pumped in their turn, then BTC is pumped up and sold to complete the cycle 5. BAKKT is legally required to have BTC and should be accumulating now. They might have their own ETF/Futures, they don't need SEC's approval They will rather buy it before launch and dump it after when the price rises. 6. High NVT Ratio means either massive adoption (which is definetely not) or a bubble and a crash soon. 7. Fear and Greed Index is a cumulative sentiment across all major platforms: buy when index is low, sell when index is high. It's rising now, not good time to buy. 8. Making it seem an overly Bearish Concept - when market comes to a point when there's not enough liquidity and sellers willing to sell whales use fake sell walls to continue to accumulate and squeeze last bits. - when accumulating the Market Makers usually don't sell their BTC to make the price go down further, but rather open large fake walls of shorts to scare people into selling into their longs - that's why there's no big short squeeze, because there's nothing to squeeze - whales will remove the walls once the price approaches - you can spot it when price first drops into a trading range with shorts rising and then pops back up out of it with the same amount of shorts closing (the avg shorts remain the same before and after the range) ____________________________________________________ There are 2 counts: 1) WXYXZ (red) triangle in Z and the end of correction - both bullish and bearish - Bullish - we may go up and retest 11000 pivot (thin Ichimoku cloud will soon allow that) in 12345 up trend - Bearish - WXYXZ can transform into a larger WXY and become only its first W wave, with whatever wave X up follows being just an upwards correction 2) WXY (blue) - bearish Down Trend continuation in wave Y Key levels (may trigger a major move): - Supply Line (purple) - Down Channel/Triangle Top (green) - ADCDE triangle top side (yellow) - Pitchfork top band (green) Key targets: - Pivot Retest (11750) (max possible price till year end) - Pitchfork Mean Line (4200) - 5150 and 5500 Demand Zone bottoms - 23.6% Fib level Algo Target + Y of WXY Projection Confluence - 7500 Demand Zone tops - 7400 D1 SMA/EMA 200 Good Luck! Please, don't trade based only on my analysis, confirm/disprove using other sources.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RagingRocketBull
2
Bitcoin: We're gonna ri-ri-ri-ri-rise til we fall!Bitcoin is in a bullish pennant and we have RSI hidden bullish divergence on the 4 hour chart. BTC has found support at $6560 (0.618 fib) and we will probably have some sideways action until we have a breakout to the upside within the next day. Volume has been dropping steadily so expecting capitulation once we get closer to our pennant support. The break out should coincide with a break above the Daily MA50 and the break above the pennant resistance should take BTCUSD above the Daily MA100 at around $6750. We can expect strong buying pressure once we break through the blue trend line which connects the peaks on 24 July, 4 September and 28 September. Price should then carry enough momentum to break the heavy $6800 resistance and should then reach $7026 at 1.272 fib with an extension to $7127 at 1.414 fib. $7127 also coincides with the large yellow trend line resistance which connects the peaks at 05 May and 24 July. A close above this yellow trend line above $7272 at 1.618 fib should spark a short term rally, however this will be a strong level of resistance given its fib positioning and price could turn from there for a retest of $6800 support. This yellow trend line also serves as resistance for the large bearish descending triangle playing out on the weekly chart. Remember the bear market is not over until BTC is over the daily MA200 so take caution when everyone starts piling in to the 4th quarter ''bull run". Good luck and happy trading! Previous analysis:
Long
by Corn_Reaper
How To Spot The beginning of Bitcoin Capitulation Look at chart. The perma bulls that are going to get slaughtered are going to say short squeeze once shorts reopen at at 6900/7000 after the market makers absorb all the liquidity from 5950 upward and fill their shorts at 6900/7000. Since everyone has a potential 6900 target they will break 7k making a fake breakout appear to the upside only to absorb all your liquidity since you just fillled their shorts. Whales have to make a broadening wedge down to 5950 to get as much liquidity for the final move up to the 7k region because on balance volume in the market keeps going down. They break 6k in order to liquidate the fomoshorts to fill a larger position in their longs Remember chad whale buying up all the bitcoin all the way up to 7300? He Filled his Shorts at the top, MY short squeeze we going to the moon. Who in the world is gonna squeeze them if their is no whale buying pressure left to the upside. Why didnt anybody squeeze the chadwhale's shorts at 7300? You would think some whale would have with that many shorts would be targeted by another whale for a short squeeze would have created a gigantic move up if they wanted the market to go bullish. Think like a Market Maker. Do a false breakout by breaking just over 7k to get everyone bullish to you fill their shorts. On balance volume is lowest since Sepember/August 2017 when price was 3 to 5k. The market makers need to take the price lower to increase the on balance volume in the market to provide more liquidity( look at the on balance volume). Look at the weekly order blocks for on balance volume for the most liquidity for the market makers
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSShort
by wolfofpoloniex2
4
Bitcoin Price on Thin IceBitcoin’s support zone between $6500 and $5750 has been under ceaseless attack throughout 2018 and on each occasion the buyers have come in to firm up the price, but are the cracks starting to widen? After a hard sell-off at the beginning of the month of September, Bitcoin's critical support zone (orange area) was once again tested and once again it held. This price zone is the thin ice that has staved off a plunge into icy depths which would surely make even the staunchest Hodler shiver! It is clearly noticeable that the rally off the support zone has become weaker on each occasion. Currently, volatility is low relative to historical price action which is clearly illustrated by the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands. Low volatility is a precursor for impulsive price action, which suggests that spill to the downside from here may possess the required momentum to finally break through the resilient support zone. Should we break through, I expect the price to fall hard and fast. Looking at previous levels of significance, I believe that likely areas of potential support exist at $5000 and $3000 (red dashed lines). Of course, it is also possible for the price to break out the prevailing bearish trend with a move to the upside. We will need to see the price move above at least the local high at $7500 and then $8500 before bulls can start to claim that the bearish trend is invalidated (blue dashed lines). Bitcoin has had a torrid 2018 and whilst personally I am bullish on Bitcoin and crypto in general from a fundamental perspective, the harsh reality is that in the short/ medium term things can get worse. Bear markets that follow periods of extreme overperformance, as witnessed in crypto markets last year, commonly experience extended periods of underperformance. At least for now, a battered Bitcoin continues to tread warily above the icy crust, but a crack in the frozen surface is likely to give way to a hypothermic decent.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by tennant.graeme
2
BTCUSD 4H - UpdateBTC has continued to exhibit bearish behavior over the past week, unable to close above $6540 and is now flirting near the lows of the support zone. We can see that BTC broke down from the bearflag and is now stuck in another triangle near the lows. We can expect a bounce to trigger stops above the $6500-$6600 level before continuing lower and testing the lows of the year. If the lows do not hold, we can see that most stops will be placed around the $5750 area, which would cause capitulation of the entire crypto market. If the capitulation does occur, most investors/traders will panic to get out of their positions, which will cause the market to plunge quickly and violently to the $5400-$5100 area. Unless the market gets good news regarding this months ETF decision, there isn't much bullish sentiment or news to propel BTC upwards. Please hit the 'like' button and give us a follow! As well, let us know what you think about our chart and where you see BTC price heading. Thanks
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CM_Trades
2
ETH Capitulation - Is there an end in sight? During the beginning of the crypto sell off earlier this year, Ethereum was one of the highest performing alts for a great period of time. I believe this was because during the beginning of this bear market, people were not as hesitant to take risky investments such as ICOs, AND also, many ICO developers were likely cashing out their tokens for Ethereum, all in turn, helped levitate the price. However, as time went on, and the bear trend did not reverse, people began to panic. ICO bag holders went running for cover, cashing out what little was left of their investment. All mean while ICO developer whales realized it may be time to cash out their MASSIVE stacks of Ethereum while the price is still relatively high. All in turn we get Ethereum capitulation. Now I do not know if the end is in sight, however, based on harmonics, we have a possible Bullish Gartley setup on the ETH/ BTC pair. Not only that, but ETHUSD is nearing my first support level buys at 230. Based on my trading strategy, 2 out of the 2 currency pairs show possible support around these levels. I plan leverage against my USD to start building a ETHBTC long. If all goes to plan and ETHUSD finds support, I will start purchasing Ethereum outright. My preferred entry is right at the 1.618 fib level I hope you all enjoyed my analysis! Please let me know what you think in the comments below! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Long
by oh92
2
A Theory about Bitcoin"Short now, and buy in at 5,600." Is what I would recommend if I were more confident in my analysis. I just want this post to point out a few things. Bitcoin hasn't reached a long-term RSI around 44 in quite some time. Bitcoin RSI was only this low in 2016 Q3-4. The prices was roughly $560. So why does this matter? The answer is entirely speculation. My current understanding of bitcoin is that multiplying by 10 to the price doesn't change what makes bitcoin special, the technology speaks for itself. Money should not be easy to create hence the surmounting difficulty of minting and mining bitcoin (as well as various other mineable alts). This also being attributed to the bi-yearly reward halving (ie 2018 bubble & 2020 www.bitcoinblockhalf.com ). Here is where things get a little more esoteric. If a short bull run in 2016 corrects to 560, then who's to say we won't see a bottom of 5,600. What is so special about $5,600 and $560? Psychology my dear Watson. I remember a friend of mine saying, "Do you know how long I was waiting for 5k bitcoin?" It was a huge price point for him as well as many strong-handed investors. What we are all waiting for is "capitulation," where bears and bulls cannot decide on which way to go. For bitcoin however, it's obvious the answer will be to go up.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by yourkardashian
I've seen this movie before - I know how it ends.Get your big boy pants out guys, this one is happening real quick. I'm starting to scale in. Ammo locked and loaded to continue scaling in through the low 200's Fastmarket warning. I'm going to be updating this published post with lower timeframe stuff since the daily isn't low enough resolution. Gonna get real interesting. Going to be an interesting trade considering BTC is nowhere near as rekt as ETH. I wonder if we'll set some bull divs on the lower timeframe as this thing digests the impulse move we just had. Measured move play would be quite interesting. That's the main thing I'm banking on. Regardless of what happens, I think we're at the point of "breakeven or profit" for spot longs.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by lowstrife
49
Capitulate or Accumilate?I have been day-trading almost every single day since late 2016, Overall I'm long my dream buy is 1,800 - 2,000 Everbody thinks that we are out of the woods, I am betting against that. Just another lower high, didn't even come close to 10k, watch out for old-key support/resistance levels on ALL coins. I like to check big moves and pair it up with bitcoins performance at the time, a great run in January ($3 per XRP) and BTC was 19k. If ETF does become approved this could validate consolidation rather than capitulation. Past performance of BTC is always a great time-capsule although not a crystal-ball clearly some projects are even still very overvalued or undervalued shareholders decide their fate. 90 percent of these projects keep in mind are still a huge WIP if developers stay committed so will the shareholders. Happy trading everyone, and good luck!
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by Cryptographic0322
BITCOIN : Load the FOMO train, capitulation comingHuge bearish divergence forming on 4Hr. BTC Overbought on daily for the first time since December. BTC Dominance at all time high since 8 months. Alts bleeding hard, everybody selling to put money in BTC, making BTC break important key levels, to make people think bull run has started. No retracement since the completion of inverse H&S. People buying anticipating ETF Decision. My point of view ? BTC is going to consolidate for the rest of the week. Probably going to 8.4k$ maximum. Might see some whicks above, but that will be it. Then we will see a huge sell off leading to capitulation. THEN, Bull run will be able to start. 100% Cryptosaurus Rex Certified.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Its_Gui
19
Second Bubble possibilityIf the flat phase happens this summer a bull market is likely at the end of 2018 and early 2019, and if big fundamental changes happen in the crypto-space (that could fasten crypto-adoption for example: fiat pairs on major exchanges and the removal of Bitcoin pairs, fiat gateways through tokenization, crypto-exchanges for tokenized traditional assets etc...) a second bubble is likely. For now the token mania has passed but we're still in a very irrational market, where many projects are launch while there is no demand: EOS, LISK and the hundreds of other cash-grab blockchain projects which bring little to no innovation yet billions in speculative investments. This shows that crypto is still in its very infancy. As for Bitcoin, if nothing changes the bear market is likely to continue for several years: Without changes in the fundamentals, Bitcoin won't stop losing value. It can't do many things and it does these things poorly (Bitcoin several years earlier was more widely used as a currency than it is now). What's keeping Bitcoin from going down is its network adoption, which is why its value will decrease at a slow but steady rate unless things change drastically.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TDesormiere
1
BITCOIN | The Path To Capitulation1. Starting with the big picture, and no indicators I drew the path based on simple visual balance and symmetry. It looks to me bitcoin is currently drawing a large equilibrium triangle. I think of this as fading echoes from a dramatic wave up then down. Almost like a seizmagraph or an audio wave after a sudden percussion. These echoes are getting smaller and tighter, once they flatten out, something will then catalyze movement. It could well be news, bad or good. It could go either way, however I think it may go down sharply and put in the real bottom before authentic recovery can happen. 2. Then I drew the grand fibonacci pulling from $200 to almost $2000 as that appeared to be the location of the first significant impulse after long sideways action. It also seemed balanced in that it represents very close to 10x increase. 3. Noticing the two fractals (waves 1+2 and 3+4 both look much like the grand wave 1+2) I pulled a fib on the 1 wave ($1759.79 - $4984.49) Notice reactions to the higher levels of this, even recently. 4. I then started counting the waves as I see them: I think believe bitcoin is now in the fifth wave down of the larger C correction wave. I believe we can look for capitulation to the top of the 1 wave with a possible pierce down to the .786 - this is in the range of $4984.49 to $4408.47 it should be quite fast and dramatic, only lasting a short period and then the bottom will be in for the 2 wave on the largest scale as we begin the 3 wave. I'm not sure I have the first 5 down count after the ATH correct, it's quite chaotic up there and I see several ways to count it, and I'm not an advanced enough Elliotician to know all the rules, but I don't think it matters much on the larger scale. 5. Even though I hand drew that line just eyeballing it, I noticed that I have capitulations happening on July 4. Independence day in USA. Curious. Note: I'm no pro. I'm very new to Elliot wave principals. I am a creative professional and artist with visual pattern skills and intuition.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mysticyak
6
CAPITULATION IS YET TO COMEBTC is currently fighting it's way up and forming a rising channel. I'm personally expecting a pop up within the next few days. History loves to repeat itself. That's why I expect the upcoming upwardsmomentum to be the final leg up, before we have capitulation taking place. Notice how during March the exact same channel has been formed after price boomed to the upside. We have a similar declining trendline forming right now (blue line) and it's very likely that BTC will break through, causing a further push to the upside. BUT! I do not expect this to be the trendreversal everybody's anticipating. Capitulation is yet to come. In case you've read my previews analysis, you might have noticed that I'm pretty confident about market cycles and that they always repeat themselves. Capitulation is needed, if we want a new (bull) cycle to begin. We haven't witnessed that yet. You might wanna take notice that there COULD be a reason, why Wall Street professionals rely on market cycles ;) Anyways.. In terms of BTC price behavior, you should observe the blue, declining trendline. Once we break through, I'm personally aiming for a long position until we reach 8450-8600 level. This is where I'm going to take short positions. Chart explains why. Also notice (AGAIN!) the similarities between now and 2014: It should be obvious to you what's happening right now. This does not exclude that I'm wrong. I could be. As a trader, you want the probabilities to be in your favour. Right now, the probabilities are pointing towards capitulation. I'm going to change my strategy, if the probabilities point towards a new bull run, which is not the case right now. Wish you guys happy trading, I'm going to keep you updated. Regards Shaheen
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ShaheenFahmy
31
DON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN....To be straight forward honest with you, I did not expect BTC to reach 7k before the major leg down. But there are two important things I'd like to talk about. 1. Notice how on the log scale we didn't even break through March's downtrend. Remembers me of the time when BTC broke through December's resistance on the auto scale, everybody was bullish and nothing happened. BTC actually went down again. Why? Because this major resistance hasn't been broken on the log scale. Same thing might happen here. 2. We got yet another rising wedge forming. BTC formed a similar rising wedge at the beginning of April - remember how bullish everybody was? The afore mentioned rising wedge was underlined by a (hidden) bearish divergence. Well...guess what. BTC is forming yet another rising wedge, with a hidden bearish divergence on the 1H Chart AND apparently on the daily chart. If the wedge is confirmed by a high volume breakdown, expect 5.800$ to happen and consider shorting. In case BTC manages to break through 7.250$, we might see 7.500$. Wish you a nice sunday.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ShaheenFahmy
24
WHAT IF 5.800$ IS NOT THE BOTTOM?Great evening everybody, yesterday I made a recommendation on when to short BTC. Everybody who followed my advice should have made some money. Enough of the self-praise though, let's get to the analysis. By now you should notice that the similiarties between now and 2013/2014 are NOT neglectable. It's pretty obvious that BTC is moving much faster nowadays. What took us 297 Days in 2013/2014 only took us 108 Days this year. The blue arrows illustrate where BTC price is currently moving. The main thing I want to talk about is this 5.800$ Double Bottom everybody is anticipating. To be honest with you, I highly doubt that 5.800$ will be the bottom. In terms of market cycles, we haven't witnessed capitulation yet, which is an important compoment, when it comes to an overall trend reversal. Capitulation usually feels like apocalpyse is happening. Also notice how during the 2k14 drop, BTC fell straight through the previous bottom and gave us a fake bottom around 20% BELOW the previous one, spiked up, and rolled over again to the actual bottom, which was around 150$. Personally, I think we will see the same thing in the near future. From a measured move perspective, we could see some bottoming behaviour at around 4.700$, price shooting upwards BEFORE the actual bottom, which could be around 2.600$. Take it for what it is and make sure to prepare yourself. I'm going to hold my shorts and take partial profits until we've reached 5.000$. Once we've reached that level, I'm watching out for some sort of bottoming behavior in order to take some long positions and close them before the final wave down. Have a nice day & safe trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ShaheenFahmy
4
BULLS MIGHT HATE ME FOR SAYING THISAlright Ladies and Gentlemen, as expected, the bounce from 6.500 $ towards 7.400$ was nothing but just another bull trap. We had decreasing Volume and an increasing price. Nothing bullish about that to be quite honest with you. There were multiple resistances at 7.400$ as you can see (Red downtrend channel). Right now, we are moving under July's supportline. A daily close below that one would be pretty bearish. What do I think will happen in the near future? I expect BTC to retest the 6.400$ level once again, probably breaking through towards 5.800$ / 5.500$ which proves to be a powerful support. Once we've reached that level, there are 2 potential outcomes. 1. Given that the support won't hold, BTC might be going for a fast capitulation around 2,5k-3,6k. 2. In case we get a double bottom, BTC might bounce & retest December's resistance around 7.400$. I would expect the attempted breakthrough to fail, causing a drop towards our capitulation price. Even though I don't like it, I'm expecting scenario 2 to play out. Let's see how it goes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ShaheenFahmy
11
The spam box 3. The HODL mentality will be their downfall.There won't be any lambos. Only pain misery and destruction. No, the institutional investors are not going to come into a bubble and throw money at the herd. Bitcoin is now sitting on the weekly 50 MA. It's all that's left truly holding Bitcoin till ~3000$. There's always the possibility of a whale pumping the price, that would be the best place to enter short. Risky to sell at the bottom because of that. Be very careful going long on bounces, aim for minimal targets. The idea is still the same, but it's time for a new spam box, all the filth will come here, I'll throw all the disgusting filth in here. Like a trashcan. +++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). I only post for trollertainment. Trade at your own risk +++
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MrRenev
38