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Capitulation

Capitulation on BTC ~ MacroCapitulation is defined as surrendering or ceasing to resist. In the market, it means when investors give up any previous gains in any security or market by selling their positions during periods of decline. Historically speaking, it is also the very best moment to enter the market. For as long as we have been able to use the 200 weekly weighted and simple moving average, the range within has worked as a range where capitulation has happened. 2015-2016 lasted 42 weeks 2019 lasted 20 weeks 2020 lasted 6 weeks Everyone is expecting the 30K level to hold, if it doesn't, we will see capitulation.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by dorfmanmaster
3
Will it be lower? Many things tell me YES! 🆘🆘☠️XRPHello everyone, We are approaching a very strong, downward trendline, from which we bounced twice lowering the price. It is very likely that it will be the same at this point. ONCHAIN ​​data shows that a lot of BITCOINs have been deposited on exchanges. Which could mean a whale play with this trendline to dips. My first target is $ 0.51, if the candle closes below I expect an elevador down. A conference on the regulation of stablecoins is to be held on February 15. I predict negative information, which will contribute to further downhill rides. Even around $ 0.35, where there will be capitualation. Many people think that this is a hole, but in my opinion it is not the end of the downhill ride. Cryptocurrencies are the future and they will do anything to get you out of here :) Comment and like, Greetings
Short
by SayMoney
5
Lets Talk ARKK Weekly Baby! Capitulation! One of the most important chart patterns is the buying and selling climax. A classic example of the pattern, in the form of a potential selling climax (S/C) is showing up in the daily and weekly charts of ARKK. Climaxes are exhaustion patterns, they develop as the last needful seller (weak hands) capitulates and hits the bid. Sellers are essentially exhausted. 1) Selling climaxes exhaust the available supply and often mark an important change in the market state. a. Even if they don't mark the end of a trend, they often lead to a period of consolidation. It is not unusual to see a trading range develop after the completion of the secondary test. b. Climaxes are fractal, appearing in literally every time frame. c. Climaxes appear after a long period of trend. 2) Climaxes typically appear concurrently with terrible news flow. a. Late last week I overheard an obviously frustrated fund manager on Bloomberg state that "I'm liquidating and going back to the real fundamentals." Down nearly 60% over the course of the last year he, and many other investors were finally throwing in the towel. 3) Climax patterns occur on extremely heavy volume. a. A clear reversal bar (often a key reversal) is typically evident. b. But modern climaxes can take several days to complete. c. Often the liquidated shares are distributed from weak hands, to strong hands. d. The new buyers are not necessarily long term investors and they often take advantage of the reaction rally to take trading profits. 4) There is often a sharp rally just prior to the selling climax. Wyckoff labeled this as preliminary demand (P/D), a point where strong handed longs are beginning to accumulate shares. The P/D is an alert to begin monitoring for a selling climax. In the case of ARKK, this P/D warning did not occur. 5) Immediately following the S/C is the automatic rally (A/R). Since sellers have been exhausted, the A/R can often cover significant ground. Buyers of the selling climax often use this rally to sell a portion of the position built during the climax. 6) In the case of ARKK, there is a micro test of the S/C. The successful test set the stage for the A/R. 7) A much larger secondary test separated in time must be completed before the S/C can be trusted. Its important to note WHERE the behavior is occurring. In past entries, I have talked about building confluences of support and resistance to create zones. These zones can then be monitored for patterns that are consistent with a change in trend. 1) Price is resting at the bottom of both short term and intermediate trend channels. I generally view channel tops and bottoms as more reliable indicators of overbought and oversold than most of the momentum suite of indicators. The two channel bottoms formed a support confluence in the 61.81 to 63.63 area. 2) There is a clear three wave move (A-B-C) that can be used to generate Fibo extension targets. I use the A-B-C pattern to generate three targets, 1, 1.382, 1.618%. The distance is then projected from the top of C. In this case the tool generated equality with the first wave at 63.38. You can use the Trend Based Fib Extension tool in MV to generate the calculation. 3) The three levels (two channels and 1 Fibo) produce a support confluence in the area between 61.81 and 63.38. This is the zone where the S/C occurred. Most momentum oscillators are deeply oversold. I have included the weekly RSI to illustrate. Note the curl higher. Odds are good that the selling in ARKK is essentially exhausted now. My guess, given the broader backdrop, is that it will form a trading range lasting several weeks, maybe months that will allow strong hands to redistribute shares before beginning a fresh markdown. But, opinion not withstanding, I will follow the evidence and clues as they build. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
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AMEX:ARKKEducation
by CMT_Association
92
BTC - First Initial Capitulation Very Likely Over It took 3 months for btc to finally capitulate completely. I still expect btc to remain in this price area, maybe even set double or slightly lower bottom to really scare the last weak hands off. By now it is safe to say that 30k will hold for now. Like i sad many times now, expect some kind of an ABC retracement back into 55k zone. We could also just go into the retracement right from here but usually bottoms get re-tested, like we saw in the summer 2021. As far as fib. retracement levels go, when ABC retracements come after initial rejection from the ATH, you typically see the A wave going near the 0.618 level and wave C going to 0.702 where we should expect massive rejection of some kind, taking us well below 30k. Alt season is still expected during an ABC retracement of btc price. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advice. Be well. BINANCE:BTCUSDC
by CR35
Will BTC hold 40k?Here's a quick look at the BTC Daily chart . As we can see, the price has been continuing its downtrend within the bigger falling wedge for some time now. The price is currently at the top of the falling wedge, and a rejection here will lead to further downside. The price needs to break above the falling wedge in order to build some bullish momentum. If the 40k support zone can't be held, then the price may very likely revisit the 33k-37k zone. ------------------------------------------- What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?: "A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts. Key Takeaways for Falling wedges: 1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods. 2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction. 3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals." ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MBM_Crypto
3
BTC - Potential Price Areas To Look ForAs BTC is grinding lower and lower there are still two potential scenarios that could happen in the upcoming days. First there is the support area where we are in right now at the time of writing (orange box). I still see it as being quite good of a support area and also a resistance during the summer of last year. This is why i think that if this orange price area holds for now it could trigger massive short-squeeze to the upside, where if it breaks above orange area we could expect to even go as high as reaching to 55k area (green box), but of course not further. This is where it is expected for the price to reverse from (if such short-squeeze even happens). 54-60k is such a massive resistence that i don't see it breaking until the next bull run, years in the future. If the short squeeze happens or not i still expect BTC to dip into a capitulation area (red box) eventually. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be Well. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by CR35
Stupid money is still playing the bitcoin gameWill not say much... Since stupid money is still in the game regardless of the sweat and tears, more blood should be seen. As soon as you'll see a move which will make you hold your head make sure to hold your crypto as well at the same time... Soon come. This is an informative post that includes my personal opinion as well and not a financial advise what so ever. Make sure to do your own research and analysis before making any investment.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by moshikomemi
2
HTR/USDT ongoing Final capitulationFollowing my yesterday post The first "kiss test" was made however and regardless of the fact that fear is in control there was no panic and the crypto market does feel stable as long as the bitcoin holds 40k support line. Having said that, and as far as I see things an uptrend will not start unless the stupid money will be shaked out. Waiting on a drop to 32k-36k and then if you ask me only God will save the bears 🐻 🐻‍❄ 🙏 This is an informative post which includes my personal opinion as well and not a financial advise what so ever. Make sure to do your own research and analysis before making any investment.
Long
by moshikomemi
XRP - Let's See If We Can Hold $0.70 (or at least $0.60)As expected BTC has created a new local low at around 40k. This drove the whole market down, but actually by not that much compared to BTC. Even though i do not think btc has found a major local bottom yet, xrp price could have already finished the crashing after capitulating to $0.60. First it would be nice to see holding $0.70 as that would further prove how bullish the chart actually is. Theoretically price could dip down to $0.50 and still be bullish (but not further) so don't get worried if that happens. Most realistic scenario that i see is the price going sideways in the range of $0.80-$0.65 especially if btc does one more push down from here. For now $0.70 area seems to provide good support. Again let's hope we hold it, if not you can see that as a even better buying opportunity (not a financial advice). I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advice. Be Well. BINANCE:XRPUSDT
by CR35
BTC Is Still Deciding What It Wants To Do First First of all, Happy new year to you all. Weather you are trader, investor or you just like to be here, i wish you all successful year (even though stock market will collapse in 2022 haha) good health and loving things. Now to the BTC. As far as my last idea goes for BTC i still think we will form a new bottom eventually, but before we do btc still has to decide where it wants to go first. We could just collapse from here or we revisit 55k area (yellow box), provided that we don't get rejected on the way up again (orange/blue box). Short squeeze is still in the cards, just don't take this to the bank. Alt season is just arround the corner as BTC dominance keeps tanking. That does not mean it could still spike up a bit before going down even further. Great news for alts is all i am gonna say. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advice. Be Well. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by CR35
BTC - It Is Possible That Next Capitulation Is HereOn Dec. 27th BTC has only managed to set a new local high before getting a hard rejection. We also did not hold 49k area (blue box), not even 48k (orange box), which was a local low set a day prior (26th). This is a definitely a sign of weaknes, therefore i am expecting that we will not revisit 55k (yellow box) area and are just going into final capitulation. As for the alts.. btc dominance keeps falling and is expected to fall even further. What this could mean is that this last capitulation could impact btc more than alts. Usually heading into a new year means bullish for alts and crypto in general. I coulb be wrong and we could still trade sideways for a while, it is just that it is a bit more likely for a price to capitulate after getting rejeted that far. Just my opinion. After we capitulate i still expect slow retracement so this grey arrow is a bit to steap. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by CR35
EOS $~90 Realistically Still In PlayEOS is one of my favorite alts, besides XRP and DASH. It has great price history, and it did perform exceptionally well in 2017/18. It is still listed on the biggest exchanges and so therefore i still believe that this market cycle will have its turn to shine. If we extend fib. extensions over previous bull run, where level 1 is sitting at ATH, it just so happens that level 0.236 sits on top of the rally prior to capitulation. This further confirms that levels could be respected and price to eventually reach $90, maybe a bit more but not by much. You can also see that if we overlay the first 2017/18 rally from the recent bottom you can see that if we did something similar in length now, we would get to near $90. That is even further conformation for me for that target. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well BITFINEX:EOSUSD
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by CR35
11
ADA Had A Phenomenal Run in 2020/21ADA had a phenomenal run in 2020/21. It has reached to a full 4.236 fib. ext based on the rally prior to capitulation where .236 is sitting on top of. Even though i think ADA still has i bit more to go. Not to much but still 200-300% could still be in the play here. To get the final clue where the final target could be, we have to extend fib. levels over the full 2017 bull run. (level 1 sitting at ATH, 0 at the low). If we do that than the full 4.236 extension gets us to around $5.5. (will show that below in the update) I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. KRAKEN:ADAUSD
KRAKEN:ADAUSD
by CR35
2
BTC Looking For A Possible Short Squeeze To HappenI know I've mentioned this many times now, but still... Either it happens from here, or maybe we have to grind a bit lower to shake retail investors and grab large orders between 42-45k area. In such situations price first moves up relatively fast into the capitulation area (54-58k), that presents a huge resistence right now, then it BTC continues to crash. It is also a low possibility, that we could just broke 42k from here and finish the crash then go into a retracement, but i highly doubt that. I still expect prices to fall into the 33-38k, depending on how laveraged BTC is or will get especially if we get that massive short squeeze. A lot of retail investors will get euphoric on the squeeze and will open over laveraged long positions right at the end of a squeeze. What comes next is a massive liquidation event largely because of over laveraged market. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by CR35