Moved too quick, is moving too quick or in wrong spotBest case--market is up tomorrow, however the high will be the highest high experienced for the next few years. See why below.
Moved too quick? There is a possible chance Intermediate wave 2 completed today at the high within the first hour of trading. The forecast zone for ending price was 4519-4536 with a median historical target based on the most relational 2C12 wave ending at 4525.03. The slightly broader median data target for C12 waves was 4536.93, while the broadest dataset for 12 waves was 4528.65. Today’s top was 4527.37. If Intermediate wave 2 ended at this top, wave 2 would have lasted a whole 5 hours AFTER Intermediate wave 1 was 65 hours. Intermediate wave 2 would have lasted 7.69% the length of wave 1. Historical waves ending in 2C12 have made it at least 14.29% the length of the preceding wave 1. Wave 2’s ending in C12 have recorded lengths that are 7.5 and 7.69% of preceding wave 1. This is the first possibility to consider. If this scenario is true, downward movement should continue tomorrow.
Moving too quick? Most models predicted at least 19 hours for the length of Intermediate wave 2. Second most agreement was 65 hours (length of wave 1), third was 32 hours and fourth was 22 hours. If the high recorded today was the end of Minor wave A AND today’s low afterward was Minor wave B, Minor wave C will be a long, slow climb or best-case end tomorrow and requiring another 70 point gain in one day (not impossible as of late). The main concerns supporting this thesis is today’s low dropped beneath the starting point of what would have to be Minor wave A. Corrective waves are the only waves in which wave B can surpass the starting point of the preceding wave which is what happened when today’s low dropped to 4577.92 which was a 105% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement. On a brighter note, Minor wave A was originally forecasted to end around 4525 IF all of Intermediate wave 2 were to sustain a top near 4532. Minor wave B was temporarily placed in a conservative position 40 points beneath A. IF the index remains in Intermediate wave 2, it is likely in Minor wave C up. There is no expectation or requirement for duration and the top can occur anywhere near the top of A, to include falling short of it. This scenario will hold true if the market is up tomorrow. A further drop below 4457.92 invalidates this theory.
In the wrong spot? There are 3 clear waves moving upward for the currently marked Minor wave A at 4527.37 from today and 5 waves down for the currently marked Minor wave B (which can are most visible on a smaller timeframe chart). Minor wave A should have 5 waves in it and wave B should have 3. The alternative is that the currently marked Minor wave A up is either Intermediate wave 2 being fully completed, or some sort of wave 2 or wave 4 action from another macro wave set which would mean we are clearly in the wrong place. The Intermediate wave 2 scenario is a possibility, and the 5 waves afterward moving down could then be the first wave 1 down inside of Intermediate wave 3. This would mean the waves have sped up almost to an unrealistic, but possible pace. This is most likely NOT Minute wave 4 from Minor wave 5 back in Intermediate wave 1 because would be called Minute wave 4 has surpassed the ending point of what was marked as Minute wave 2. A new and sustained low below 4450 tomorrow could prove this scenario true. I have received wave 3 of wave 3 indicators all of the previously mentioned and plotted locations which is part of my bias believing the chart above is marked accurately. However, even with 3 of 3 indicators in the correct position, another wave could have sped up or slowed down which could push us further ahead than charted.
The original Intermediate wave 2 forecast levels remain on the right side of the chart. If Minor wave C continues with upward movement tomorrow, the historical levels based on the currently placed Minor waves A & B are on the left. Minor wave C is not expected to move much higher than 4527.37 (the high from Minor wave A). Based on historical waves ending in C12C (light blue levels), the first quartile movement extension is 110.40%, the median is 126.14%, and the third quartile is 126.49%. This is not a typo. A large chunk of the data has had the top between 115-127%. This would be 4544 at the highest which is in line with the original Intermediate wave 2 projection at 4541.90. Models project Minor wave C to last 4-5 trading hours which would place the top toward the end of the trading day tomorrow (Friday August 11). All historical Minor wave C have travelled at least 105% of wave A’s movement placing a probable floor around 4530 (Minor wave C should end above 4530 per this data point). Based on waves ending in 12C (yellow levels), quartiles are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%. Models once again agree on 4-5 hours, with an outside chance at 8 hours long. Based on the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C (white lines), the quartiles are 116.55%, 138.4%, and 180.25%. Duration still holds firm at 4-5 hours with outside chance at 8.
Bottom-line is tomorrow could continue the whipsaw up and back down, up into the weekend, or just outright down. Intermediate wave 2 from a duration standpoint will not likely end on late Monday or early Tuesday as originally projected. The level for the top and end of Intermediate wave 2 still looks valid. I have re-adjusted the target box for the new projected zone IF we are still in Intermediate wave 2 and the market moves up tomorrow.
