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Rising supply could act as a headwind for uranium pricesThe price of uranium, known as yellow cake, has more than doubled in the past year amid a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the global market, sending uranium-related assets soaring to the sky. In addition, the return of Japanese appetite for carbon-free energy and the restart of two nuclear reactors last year, along with plans to restore more units in 2024, also contributed to rising prices. Then, more recently, the announcement of the U.S. ban on Russian imports of uranium and the approval of the GX Decarbonization Power Supply Bill in Japan, aimed at creating a carbon-free energy supply, have had the same effect, helping uranium to regain strength after a brief selloff in February and March 2024. Illustration 1.01 Uranium-related assets, including Global X Uranium (URA), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF), Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM), and Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC), all recorded huge gains in the past year or so. Since the start of 2024, uranium has gained approximately 4.7%. Yet, for the year, its performance has been flat, which begs the question of whether the rally is not overdone at this point when the supply is coming online around the world, raising chances of the market moving toward balance and potentially leading to stabilization or reversal in prices. According to the quarterly Domestic Uranium Production Report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), uranium production in the United States for the first quarter of 2024 already surpassed the total output last year. Moreover, data from 2021 and 2022 suggest countries like Australia and Canada are also trying to ramp up their production in response to rising prices. Illustration 1.02 The image above illustrates the weekly graph of Global X Uranium ETF (URA) and a major resistance at $31.60. Regarding Global X Uranium ETF (URA), it recorded remarkable 353% gains since its lows in 2020, coupled with a nearly 15% increase in the current year alone. However, despite these impressive gains, the ETF has encountered a significant hurdle at the $31.60 mark, signaling a potential barrier to further upside momentum. Besides that, there is a growing perception that events traditionally viewed as catalysts for price appreciation are losing their potency over time, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish Monthly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
AMEX:URAShort
by Tradersweekly
CSIX/USDT Primed for a Bullish Momentum? CSIX Analysis💎Paradisers, let's turn our attention to #CSIXUSDT, where recent market movements have led to a breakout from its descending channel pattern. 💎Presently, #Carbon is poised to retest the Bullish Order Block (OB), a zone that previously acted as a supply area. There's a strong possibility that the price could rebound from this zone, propelling its trajectory upward, and aiming for the next hurdle at the bearish OB region. 💎However, if #CSIX fails and descends below the demand zone, we might see a pullback to the Bullish OB vicinity around the $0.061 mark, where it could gather the strength needed for another ascent. 💎The Bullish OB zone has historically been a pivotal point, often leading to significant rebounds upon its test. Yet, if this zone fails to hold, indicating a shift to bearish momentum, the price may seek to establish a new path from a lower stance. 💎In the event that $CSIX doesn't harness the momentum from this or any subsequent level, it could face a continued downtrend. Rest assured, your ParadiseTeam remains vigilant, ready to offer insights and guidance through these intricate market dynamics.
Long
by MyCryptoParadise_Simon
(NSE:OCCL )Oriental Carbon on move up Market Share: # OCCL is the sole manufacturer of Insoluble Sulphur (IS) in the domestic market. Majority of demand for insoluble sulphur is derived from the automotive tyres industry. It enjoy a domestic market share of nearly 55%-60% and around 10% market share in the global market. OCCL has established itself as a preferred first/second supplier to all major tyre manufacturers in global markets Capacity as of FY20: # IS plant spread across 2 units (Dharuhera & SEZ Mundra) of 34,000 metric tonnes per annum. Upcoming Capex # Capacity expansion underway to expand the Insoluble Sulphur capacity by 11,000 MTPA & Sulphuric acid capacity by 42,000 MTPA, spread across two phases at its Dharuhera facility. Total project will cost 216 Cr, funded with a debt equity ratio of 2:1. Phase-I of IS capacity expansion by 5500 MTPA along with Sulphuric acid capacity at an outlay of 156 Cr is underway. Commissioning for the project has been pushed to July2021 from Q3FY21 as envisaged earlier for phase-1. reference: Screener.in
OLong
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
A Golden Cross for EUA FuturesEuropean Union Carbon Allowances (EUAs) rose close to 19% in the past month (16/01/2023-15/02/2023). In its quarterly publication released on Monday 13th February 2023, the European Commission revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% in 2023 from 0.3% previously. Moreover, it expects the trading block to avoid recession. With the European Union on a healthier footing than previously assumed, market participants are more optimistic and hence have upgraded their expectations on carbon allowance demand. The compliance deadline for 2022 emissions is 30th April 2023. There could be strength in demand as we approach that date. At the same time, markets are anticipating an announcement on final decisions from trialogue discussions (between the European Council, European Commission and European Parliament) on the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative proposal package put forward in 2021. The preliminary agreement announced in December 2022 was more aggressive than the European Commission’s initial proposal on many fronts affecting the European Emissions Trading System (See summary table of some of the provisional agreements below). A tighter Linear Reduction Factor; wider scope of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms; an extension of the Market Stability Reserve intake of 24% to 2030 are all positive for EUA prices. The market awaits confirmation that these will be in the final wording. Still risks linger with the financing of REPowerEU, where the Commission had proposed monetising some of the EUAs in the Market Stability Reserve. Parliament voted on 14th February to partially accept the idea of using Allowances in the Reserve to finance REpowerEU (by taking €12bn from the European Innovation Fund and then compensating the Fund with 27 million Allowances)1. The remaining €8bn will come from front-loading planned auctions of EUAs. If the Council also approves we see this as a price negative move. With close to a 19% gain in EUA futures prices in the past month, the market has entered a “Golden Cross” in technical analysis jargon, where the 50 day moving average (DMA) price rises above the 200 DMA. It is interpreted by technical analysts and traders as signalling a definitive upward turn in a market. Sources: 1 Peter Liese Press Release - Overcome dependency from Russian Oil and Gas breathing speace for electricity consumers and industry
ICEEUR:ECF1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
From Fossil Fuels to Wind Power: The Transformation of Repsol Alright folks, today we're talking about Repsol, the Spanish energy company, and their joint venture with Ibereólica Renovables in Chile. They've just announced the opening of their second wind farm project, the Atacama wind farm, which has an impressive installed capacity of 165.3 megawatts and is expected to produce over 450 gigawatt-hours of clean energy a year. Now, here's the thing - this is a positive step for Repsol in expanding their renewable energy portfolio and supporting Chile's goal of reaching 70% renewable energy by 2030. The 14-year power purchase agreement between the companies reflects a promising double-digit return on the asset, which is certainly a good sign for investors. However, we can't overlook the fact that the energy industry is facing significant disruption and challenges due to increasing pressure to shift towards renewable energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. Repsol's financial performance has also been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and declining energy demand. So, while this joint venture and the Atacama wind farm project are certainly positive developments for Repsol, investors should also consider the broader market conditions and potential risks associated with the energy industry before making an investment decision. It's a complex and rapidly evolving landscape, and it's important to stay informed and evaluate all the factors before making any investment moves.
BME:REPLong
by FxCryptoWaves
Update on European Union Emissions Trading Scheme Trialogue discussions in progress The ‘Fit for 55’ legislative package proposed by the European Commission in the summer of 2021 is likely to be the catalyst for the most meaningful reform of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme since the programme began in 2005. A lot of progress had been made in getting to a final agreement, with the European Parliament having concluded its debates before the summer recess and the Council of European Union (chaired by Czech Republic) finalising its position around the same time. However, discussions between the three groups (The European Commission, Council of European Union and European Parliament) on ‘Fit for 55’ legislation has been slowed by concurrent REPowerEU discussions. REPowerEU is the European Commission’s plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Both REPowerEU and Fit for 55 should promote energy transition and decarbonisation and the therefore are pace and ambition in one initiative will have implications on the other. Trialogue discussions on the ‘Fit for 55’ legislation between The European Commission, Council of European Union and European Parliament are currently taking place. There is a lot of hope that these discussion will be concluded before Christmas, while the current chair of the Council is in place (Czech Republic). What’s been agreed and what’s next? So far a number of things have been agreed : 1. A lower threshold for the cost containment mechanism (Article 29a) 2. No restriction of market access to “speculators” Provisional agreement has been reached on : 1. 40% emission reduction by 2030 from 2005 in Effort Sharing Regulation (non-ETS sectors) 2. Provisional agreement on starting the phase-in of shipping into the ETS in 2024-26, later than the 2023 as originally proposed 3. Phasing out free EUAs for the aviation industry by 25% in 2024 and 50% in 2025 and completely by 2026. A total of 5 million allowances that were allotted to aviation companies will now go into an innovation fund. Only intra-EU aviation is covered by the EU ETS. In 2026, the EU will access if the International Civil Aviation Organization’s CORSIA is doing a good enough job at decarbonising the international aviation industry. If it isn’t they will seek to include international flights into the EU ETS. Tentative agenda for remaining discussions : 1. December 14th 2022: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 2. December 16th 2022: Revision of key formulas including overall cap, linear reduction factor and expansion of ETS to buildings and road transportation 3. December 19th: Social Climate Fund Swift agreements will be useful As we approach the final days of the calendar year, open interest and trading volumes on EUA futures tend to decline. Important news flow on days with lower-than-normal liquidity could have an outsized effect on price. Thus, it will be prudent for the trialogues to conclude swiftly. Moreover, it will be convenient to conclude before the (rotating) Presidency of Council of Europe switches to Sweden on January 1st 2023. With center-right Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson dependent on the far-right, Euroskeptic Sweden Democrats (SD) for his parliamentary mandate, some fear EU legislative processes could be slowed. However, if key agreements are made before the switch, it will be difficult for the Council to back out in the New Year. Article 29a reform Under Article 29a of the current Directive, if for more than six consecutive months, the allowance price is more than three times the average price of allowances during the two preceding years, the European Commission (EC) shall convene a meeting of the Climate Change Committee. As a second condition, the EC Climate Change Committee has to determine that the excessive price fluctuations do not correspond to market fundamentals. If both conditions are met, Article 29a is triggered, whereby the EC can release an appropriate number of Allowances from the Market Stability Reserve. To date, this has never happened. The reform agreed is to lower the threshold to 2.4 times the average price of allowances during the two preceding years rather than 3x. This is less bearish for EUA prices than lowering to 2x as we were projecting in our last blog - Suspension of EU ETS unlikely. The current Article 29a doesn’t specify how many EAUs need to be released. The EC would need to decide on an appropriate number given the scale and circumstances of the misalignment with fundamentals. The reformed Article will involve 75 million allowances released automatically. While still less than the 100 million discussed earlier this year, removing the ‘second condition’ of judging if the price movement is out of line with fundamentals may in fact drive more instability in EUA pricing. Had this reform been in place in 2021-2022, it still would not have triggered the release of additional EUAs, during this period of heightened price volatility, although it would have come close. If implemented in 2018, Article 29a would have likely been triggered. Are we there yet? Not everything in the Fit for 55 package has been agreed and even what has been a greed is not yet law. Any provisional agreement reached in trilogues is informal and has therefore to be approved by the formal procedures applicable within the Council and Parliament. In Parliament, the text of the provisional agreement has to be approved by a vote in committee after which it is confirmed in plenary.
ICEEUR:ECF1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Progress on ‘Fit for 55’ breathes life into EUA marketOn Friday 28 October, EU carbon emission allowances (EUA) had extended their largest weekly gain in 5 years following a strong rally over the preceding six days1. This happened during a week when the first ‘Fit for 55’ proposal was agreed2. The EU has strengthened targets for CO2 emissions from road transportation. To understand this price action, it is important to reflect on what happened in the EUA market between August and October. EUA prices fell sharply in August after reaching an all-time high of EUR98.42/MT3. Two main things triggered the collapse in prices. First, Poland’s Prime Minister called for a suspension of the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) to deal with the stress of rising prices. Poland’s state-owned electricity company even launched an advertising campaign blaming the ETS for the country’s high energy prices. Second, there had been much talk about reforming Article 29a of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Directive – the mechanism designed to reduce instability caused by price spikes. Despite the high price volatility of EUAs and the sharp price increases in the past two years, the clauses under Article 29a have never been invoked. In September we outlined how the past sequence of events, that were weighing on EUA prices, were unlikely to materialise further. The suspension of ETS had neither any legal basis nor any political will. And the triggering of Article 29a is an ambiguous process and it wasn’t certain that its thresholds were likely to be hit. Even if we disregard the technicalities of Article 29a, the principle remains that the ETS Market Stability Reserve was designed to reduce the historic oversupply of EUAs and used only to counter any major shocks to the system. As a result, we took the view that markets had overreacted even though the fundamentals for EUA remained strong. In the blog, we also suggested that post summer, we expect to see more momentum on the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative front. As per the press release by European Council from 27 October 2022: The Council and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement on stricter CO2 emission performance standards for new cars and vans. The goal of the agreement is to move towards zero-emission mobility. Pending a formal adoption, the co-legislators agreed to a: 55% CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and 50% for new vans by 2030 compared to 2021 levels 100% CO2 emission reduction target for both new cars and vans by 2035. The proposal to revise the CO2 emissions performance standards for cars and vans is part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package. Presented by the European Commission on 14 July 2021, the package aims to enable the EU to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels and to achieve climate neutrality in 2050. At WisdomTree, we believe this development sends a strong signal to markets that the EU is committed to the ‘Fit for 55’ package. As rules covering other sectors not currently legislated under the ETS (like buildings and shipping) are unveiled, we may see more positive price momentum in EUAs. This does not rule out volatility in the short-term. Europe is still faced with a precarious energy situation over winter. Oil and natural gas prices can have an indirect effect on EUAs. For example, if energy supplies are ample and industrial activity continues at or close to normal levels, demand for EUAs will also stay at normal levels. If activity needs to be curtailed, emissions will automatically fall and so will the demand for EUAs. In the medium term however, Europe’s focus remains on the energy transition. REpowerEU – the policy proposal to wean off Russian energy dependency – also focuses on speeding up the energy transition away from hydrocarbons in general. In short, the energy shock is unlikely to derail EU ETS from being the cornerstone of EU’s climate policy. The recent rally in EUA prices appears to be a realisation of this from markets. 1 Source: Bloomberg. 3 On 19 August 2022, source: Bloomberg.
ICEEUR:ECF1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
EKI ENERGY SERVICES. its a great model business. as the new future is of EV sector, EVa vehicles and so on.., this stock will come in demand with many other automobile making company, to check their carbon offsetting. government will too focus on this sector, too make the the country pollution free. currently, now its in demand sone(support level), it should rise. good for swing trading. and the best part of stock is- it recently launched its IPO, ipo was subscribed in a great manner, and within some time itself, it gave a good divident along with a stock split.
BSE:EKILong
by raghavchoudhary2016
Ripple Commits $100M to Invest in Carbon MarketsBlockchain company Ripple has allocated $100 million to accelerate carbon removal activity and aid in modernizing such markets with the help of investments in innovative carbon removal firms and sustainable financial tech platforms. According to the official press release, Ripple also plans to create a “portfolio of additive, long-term, nature and science-based carbon credits, back innovative carbon-removal technology companies and market makers.” Some of these will be utilized to meet its own commitment to accomplish net-zero in less than a decade. The funding will also focus on supporting new functionality and developer tools that allow carbon credit tokenization as core NFTs on the public blockchain – XRP Ledger (XRPL).
BINANCE:XRPUSD
by johanpedersen
Carbon Credits Play with First Mover Advantage OFSTFThesis & Carbon Credits Outlook Analysis by midagedinvestor86 $1.40 Price Target: $5 & above. Carbon credits are a relatively new commodity that few people have even heard of yet. The market is growing at a rapid pace and is estimated by at least one leading natural resource investor (more on him later) to be larger than the oil market by the year 2050, maybe even as early as 2040. That is not a typo, the growth in carbon credits is expected to make carbon credits the largest commodity market in the world in 30 years time. This is from a base of only about 1.5 billion this year total and only $320 million this year in the voluntary carbon market specifically. (www.cnbc.com) www.carbonstreaming.com Why will this market grow so much in the next few decades? Because going green is good business! Regardless of whether you believe in man made global warming, this is one of the greatest money making opportunities of a generation and it would be foolish to not recognize and capitalize on it. The ESG (Environmental, Sustainability, Governance) trend is unstoppable and requires that businesses around the world change their practices to make the world a better place. One of the biggest ways of doing this is to lower their carbon emissions. While many countries around the world are creating cap and trade schemes, there is also a rapidly growing “voluntary” carbon market. Some companies such as large oil producers are in a business that will always generate massive amounts of CO2 emissions however they can “offset” this by producing or alternatively purchasing carbon credits. Why would they do that? Because they want to lower their cost of capital and make their shares attractive to the rapidly growing pools of capital that are mandated to only invest in ESG friendly companies. By lowering their carbon emissions by purchasing carbon credits or building projects that generate carbon credits the company is then able to issue “green bonds”, which have a lower cost to the company than regular bond issuances: katusaresearch.com The green bond market is massive and growing all the time. These are bonds of companies that meet certain ESG specifications. Global ESG debt issuance just surpassed 3 trillion dollars in total this month. (Source: katusaresearch.com) And that will not stop growing. It took 12 years for the first trillion in ESG bonds to be issued, the second trillion took one year, the third took only six months! The cost of capital is critical for large scale capital intensive businesses like hydrocarbon production firms such as Exxon or Chevron or large industrial metal producers like Rio Tinto or Freeport. By lowering their cost of capital these businesses create huge cost savings for their operations and by going green these companies open their shares up to be bought by far more institutional investors who, because of many factors, are often now required to only buy shares in businesses that have a good ESG scorecard. While it costs money in legal fees, compliance officers etc. to make a company ESG friendly, the savings a company experiences from a lowered cost of capital more than makes up for it. Oil giant Shell unjust lost a court ruling in the Netherlands that will now require them to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030: www.reuters.com Risks While the stock has a sizable market cap already the shares are very illiquid and if a market crash were to occur before the stock becomes more well known it may be tough to get out of a sizable position quickly without trashing the stock price even more. Competition-Carbon Streaming has first mover advantage in the space but I expect numerous “me too” companies to pop up in the next 6-12 months with the same business model and this will create competition for the carbon streams that may drive down the Internal Rates of Returns on streams as companies try to outbid each other for the various deals to be had. Trump gets back in in 2024 however I think this would merely create an initial shock lower in the stock and it would soon recover given that their assets will likely be located all over the world. To put this in perspective, this will require Shell to buy and/or create 100 million carbon credits per year for the next decade. Is Shell just a one off? No! 24 hours after the Shell court ruling, the board of directors of Exxon was disrupted and two board seats were won in an acrimonious proxy fight by an unknown climate fund called Engine No.1. Then the shareholders of Chevron voted, and changes will happen there too. It is inevitable that other large oil companies and large resource miners get with the program. Carbon credit prices in the voluntary market are likely to rise considerably over the next few years. As legendary Canadian resource investor Marin Katusa puts it: “All of this is building up a pressure chamber of demand in the Voluntary Carbon Market that has not yet reached a tipping point. When it does, there’s a lot of upside to be had. Because It’s the perfect setup for a long squeeze in the Voluntary Carbon Market: -Rising emissions from a growing population. -Tightening government mandates on carbon emissions. -Increasing consumer demand for environmental responsible. -More transparency in emissions reporting. -Corporate buy-in at every level, even from non-emitting companies. -All together, this is going to result in a desperate scramble for high-quality carbon offsets, of which there are few. If you thought the rise in the price of lumber was crazy in early 2021… Just wait until you see the VCM market in five years.” (katusaresearch.com) If you want to read more a really good primer on Carbon Credits read this: www.forbes.com Company Overview Carbon Streaming Corporation (“CSC”) just went public in Canada under the ticker symbol NETZ (for “Net Zero”) and trades in the US on the over the counter exchange under the ticker symbol OFSTF. The business model CSC is going to employ is in my opinion brilliant. They are going to finance carbon credit generation projects all over the world in exchange for streams of carbon credits. Let me explain. Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s companies like Franco Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Royal Gold pioneered a new business model within the gold industry. Instead of spending money exploring for gold deposits and putting them into production by building mines, they provided investment capital to mining companies in exchange for royalties on the mine's gold production. For example, the royalty company would invest say 150 million dollars into a miner and in exchange they would receive 2% of all the revenue generated by the mine over the entire life of the mine. By doing this the royalty company got exposure to the price of the underlying commodity but took drastically less risk by avoiding having to build and operate the mine themselves. Later this business model added the concept of “streams”. A “stream” or “streaming deal” is one where again the royalty company like Franco Nevada puts up serious money to help another firm build their mine, and in exchange they get the option, for example, of purchasing say 20% of all the gold produced by the mine for an artificially low price of $400 per ounce. This deal would be called a “gold stream”. This business model has worked remarkably well in the precious metals space with Franco Nevada returning much more over the long term than gold itself, the Nasdaq, and GDX, the markets leading gold stock ETF: www.franco-nevada.com These royalty stocks trade at drastically higher multiples than golder miners themselves and currently the three biggest precious metal royalty companies, Franco Nevada, Wheaton, and Royal Gold trade at price to sales ratios of 28, 18, and 14 respectively: www.Finviz.com Enter Carbon Streaming Corporation. This company is going to employ the Franco Nevada royalty model to Carbon Credits. The company just raised over $100 million USD in a financing bringing the total cash in their treasury to $141 million USD with no debt. With about 200 million shares outstanding undiluted this amounts to about $0.70 per share in cash. The stock currently trades at about $1.40 per share meaning that when you “net out” the cash, the market is giving Carbon Steaming an Enterprise Value of $140 million. In my opinion this is cheap given the size of the opportunity, the quality of management, and the first mover advantage the company will enjoy for the next 6-12 months. The CEO of Carbon Streaming is Mr. Justin Cochrane, former investment banker and executive vice president of Sandstorm Gold (NYSE: SAND) , a very successful gold royalty company that has grown from a tiny micro cap to a large player in the space that may one day be considered amongst the giants like Franco Nevada. He has personally been involved with hundreds of millions of dollars of royalty transactions in the precious metals space. He put up millions of dollars of his own money in this latest financing round which is critically important when considering investing in smaller companies in my opinion. The management team as a whole bought 10 million worth of the latest financing. The shareholder roster for the company is also very impressive and includes legendary Canadian resource entrepreneurs/investors Marin Katusa and Ross Beatty. Mr. Katusa recently took down almost 10% of the over $100 million dollar financing and is considered by many to be the “Young Warren Buffett” of resource investing up here in Canada. He tends to be very reserved and conservative in his valuation models and very selective about his stock picks and entry prices. He is the company’s largest shareholder. In his words: “The amount of capital that has and will continue to be deployed into the Carbonomics Sector is mind boggling—it’s in the hundreds of billions and will reach the trillions….Carbon Streaming Corp is the first company to get involved in the financing and production of carbon credits at a large scale. The company is priced attractively for speculators, given the early-stage venture risk….I do believe that by 2030, the carbon market can be larger than copper and gold markets, and by 2040 could be $2 trillion larger than the oil market. Let that sink in for a moment. The opportunity here is so compelling and we have a chance to get a core position in one of the leaders in this industry before it gets listed on a Big League exchange.” The company currently owns two Carbon Credit Streams, the Marvivo Blue Carbon Project and the Bonobo Peace Forest Project. Management has stated both of these projects have Internal Rates of Return (IRR) greater than 15% which is unheard of at this point in the precious metals sector given all of the new companies and competitors have entered the space over the last 10 years. I will not go into the details here but Blue Carbon Credits are superior to regular Carbon credits and will trade at a substantial premium in terms of price. Basically blue carbon credits are created by the growth and conservation of carbon-absorbing plants, such as mangrove forests and their associated marine habitat. A blue carbon project will have its carbon credits trade at a premium because of the enormous second-order benefits on such things as, for example, corals, algae, and marine biodiversity that have been so deleteriously affected by over-fishing and farming. I expect management to start to deploy their war chest of cash immediately to build their portfolio of high quality carbon credit streams to position itself as the Franco Nevada of the Carbon Credit space. These deals should be positive catalysts for the stock moving forward. Management has stated they are aiming to exit 2023 at a revenue run rate of $200 million USD per year. And that is only using CURRENT PRICING for carbon credits, which actually are expected to move much higher in price over the next few years. Putting a 10-20x pierce to sales multiple on that would peg CSC with a market cap in the billions in a little over 2 years. But with all the “hot money” capital that will seek to enter this space over the next two years I would not be surprised if the market cap gets much higher than that. The reason for this is simple. Other than the exchange traded fund KRBN there are still very few ways for investors to get “pure play” exposure to carbon credits. CSC is going to be the first publicly listed company that provides investors with a way to invest in an equity 100% focused on carbon credits. Given the massive amount of capital looking to get in on this emerging hot investment trend and the tiny amount of options available to those investors, there will likely be massive buying pressure on the stock. Think of a fire hose worth of water trying to get pushed through the eye of a needle! Conclusion The carbon credit market is starting to take off and is poised for massive growth over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. CSC has perfectly positioned itself to take advantage of this trend by employing the proven and golden business model (pun intended) of royalty and streaming financing to this fast emerging intangible commodity space. We have a chance to get in on the ground floor of a company that could easily be worth many billions of dollars at a tiny market cap before it lists on a major exchange. The company has all the cash and management expertise that it needs to execute its business model and create enormous wealth for early shareholders. Good luck and good investing to all!
OTC:OFSTFLong
by wallstreetsharks
UAMY - Fundamental catalysts and bullish chartBullish Thesis for UAMY: 1. UAMY share price has historically followed the raw price of Antimony. The last period that it traded in a similar price per metric ton was 2011-2012, in which the shares price traded in the $2-4 range on average. In 2021, the share price only briefly exceeded the $2 mark. 2. China is the world leading exporter of antimony and there is currently a supply shortage (along with global shipping issues due to covid), further driving up the price www.metalbulletin.com 3. Antimony is a critical element of many items, an in particular battery technology ( EV sector), and flame retardents, brake pads, and now alloys for CARBON CAPTURE as well. As part of the infrastructure deal, the carbon capture sector is benefitting with a ton of recent market interest (stocks like CEI and ENG are examples). Demand for antimony should continue to rise with the proliferation of EV's and pollution reduction legislation 4. UAMY has a subsidiary called Bear River Zeolite, which manufactures a chemical used for many pollutants, including CARBON CAPTURE and METHANE removal (worse than CO2) www.bearriverzeolite.com 5. UAMY has seen more volume in the past year than at anytime in it's history. Since peaking in March, it has been consolidating in the $0.80-1.10 range ever since, while the high price of raw antimony has remained high. 6. The current share price is sitting on a volume shelf support level Risks - 1. If prices of raw antimony were to drop, the price would fall based on historical behavior. Unlikely in the near term due to high market demand 2. 50 day SMA just crossed under the 200 day SMA (death cross)
AMEX:UAMYLong
by Jagoff
1
$ABXX GO TIME on ACH license this weekI am putting myself out there that as time passes its more and more likely that Abaxx is awarded its license to operate as an approved clearing house. I thought it could slip into August and it has but it may yet still not come this week. So we have 5 days here for it to come for this chart to perhaps be a nice call on Stock performance this week. Note prior candle sizes Abaxx has put up in March and April, also a nice one in June. Price has a history of travelling .40-.50 cents in a day on above average volume. Abaxx being awarded this license this week opens up the door for that share price action I believe. I noted that red candle from a couple weeks ago as its large red volume but doesnt tell the whole story. There was a large buy on the OTC side mid morning and the price moved up, sellers took control in the afternoon but the bulk of the volume for the day was on the buyside. If Abaxx is indeed awarded its license this week it will be easy to look back and say last Thursday was indeed a shakeout of speculators and or weak hands as they anticipated news and trading it, The sell off was bought quickly. I put it up there now to perhaps be ahead of the game, or be wrong. For fun I put up that candle with a volume range for trading. I intentionally stopped just over $4 as there is evidence that there will be *some* resistance there from the chart (trendline inputted). Also there is the psychological resistance factor to consider whenever you cross over into a new dollar amount where traders may take profit. All in all, I believe being awarded the license when it comes will be an absolute shift in trend to the upside for Abaxx. There is also the AGM meeting on August 25th where shareholders will vote to allow leadership to reduce shareholder capital in Abaxx and pay out a dividend in kind in the form of BASE Carbon shares which should also keep eyeballs and buyers on the stock. We'll have time before the actual Abaxx Exchange launch which should come in late Sept/early October if Company's current TL is maintained. So there will likely be some healthy pullback and consolidation. I am really curious to see if volume starts to ramp up. This is a relatively tight float a strong portion of which is held long. If there is significant buying interest the price could and should move in Sept to test the NEO ATH set in early April. $ABXXF traded on Dec 28th with CDN markets closed for Boxing Day holiday (BD was on weekend) and put up large run that hit an ATH but sold off intra day. For now lets see what this week brings. I have a Long position in $ABXX. Should you trade this stock please follow your own trading rules and do DD before taking a position. Hit me up on twitter if you have any thoughts/questions/callouts or want to learn more about Abaxx. Cheers, Luke
NEO:ABXXLong
by LeBelleChart
3
China Prepares To Roll Out The Digital YuanThe Evolution of the Global Financial Revolution Which came first, the chicken or the egg? The question has its root in ancient Greece, where philosophers used it as an analogy to opine on cause and effect. Aristotle, writing in the fourth century BCE, addressed the question of origin versus first cause as an infinite sequence, with no actual source. The paradox may be one of the most studied and debated topics in history. In the young world of cryptocurrencies, a modern-day chicken and egg question may only lie in the brain of Satoshi Nakamoto. The anonymous founder, who may exist in name only, is the only one who can answer which came first, Bitcoin or blockchain? China’s digital yuan will be the first China crackdown on cryptos to avoid competition A bifurcation in the blockchain-based currencies on the horizon- Digital and stable coins versus cryptos Carbon, security, custody, and control are the issues facing cryptos A digital dollar and euro are on the horizon, but the government needs to “get it right.” Nothing gets a bull market going like the potential for untold wealth. Anyone who purchased $10 worth of Bitcoin in 2010 at five cents and held the 200 tokens has a mark-to-market value of nearly $6.5 million as of July 25. The value was down from over $13.1 million on April 14, 2021, when Bitcoin reached the high of over $65,500 per token. Bitcoin and the expanding cryptocurrency asset class that includes over 11,000 tokens as of the end of last week continues to provoke controversy. However, there is almost universal acceptance that blockchain technology is evolutionary for finance and other applications. The growth of the asset class over the past decade has been nothing short of astonishing. However, at the $1.395 trillion level on July 25, the combined market cap remains well under Apple’s (AAPL). The world’s most valuable company had a value of over $2.479 trillion at $148.56 per share on July 23. While the cryptocurrency asset class market cap is nothing to sneeze at, it still pales compared to the stock market and many other asset classes. Through Newtons’ First Law, physics teaches that a body in motion tends to remain in motion. The trends in cryptocurrencies remain higher despite the recent correction that cut many of the tokens’ values in half. Currencies that employ blockchain technology will continue to come to market over the coming days, weeks, months, and years. The next significant issuance will come not from the private sector but from China, the world’s second-leading economy that is nipping at the heels of the US, the world’s largest economy. China’s digital yuan will be the first It is not a question of if a country issues a digital version of its currency, but when it will occur. China is leading the race as it has been working on the digital yuan or 3-CNY since 2014, long before Bitcoin and the other cryptos really took off on the upside. In mid-July, the Chinese government published a white paper in Chinese and English outlining that “Foreign residents temporarily traveling ion China can open an e-CNY wallet to meet daily payment needs without opening a domestic bank account.” With the fanfare of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing on the horizon, China is targeting the even as an opportunity to roll out the e-CNY product for visitors as the next step for its digital currency. A group of US Senators urged the Olympic Committee to forbid US athletes from using the digital yuan because of surveillance issues. China responded that “The US politicians should abide by the spirit in the Olympic Charter, stop making sports a political matter and stop making troubles out of the digital currency in China.” As of the end of June, after a year of e-CNY tests across China, approximately 20.87 million personal wallets and over 3.5 million corporate wallets were opened. Transactions values are about 34.5 billion yuan or $5.4 billion, according to the paper. China is well on the way to making its digital currency the mainstream means of exchange. The trials have expanded with programs producing a digital yuan insurance product for medical personnel exposed to coronavirus risks in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. China’s political and economic system may be better positioned to roll out digital currencies as an authoritarian approach allows the government to control the money supply and all aspects of life directly. In the US, the politicians may blame “surveillance” issues for objections to athletes using the e-CNY during the Olympics. Still, they are likely far more concerned with controlling the purse strings, which is crucial for maintaining power. Moreover, China’s political system allows the government to squash any competition to its digital currency. Simultaneously, blockchain technology will enable the Chinese government to track spending in real-time, increasing its power over 1.4 billion citizens. Cryptocurrencies became popular in China as they allow citizens to anonymously move funds offshore, which China defines as a nefarious use. Blockchains’ efficiency is a dream come true for the CCP. China crackdown on cryptos to avoid competition As China prepares to roll out the digital yuan fully, the central bank has been cracking down on cryptocurrency mining and trading. In May, the government banned Chinese financial institutions and payment companies from providing crypto-related series. Mass arrests following in June. People suspected of using cryptos in “nefarious” ways were rounded up. In July, the Beijing office of the People’s Bank of China shut down a company “suspected of providing software services for virtual currency transactions.” Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, reached a high of over $65,500 per token on April 14, the day of the Coinbase (COIN) listing on NASDAQ. The actions in China were a primary cause of the end of Bitcoin’s parabolic rally. As the chart highlights, nearby Bitcoin futures fell from $65,520 in mid-April to a low of $28,800 in late June. At the most recent $32,480 level, the cryptocurrency remains a lot closer to the low than the high. The crypto asset class’s market cap dropped from over $2.4 to under $1.4 trillion over the period. China’s crackdown on cryptocurrencies has been the leading reason for the decline. A bifurcation in the blockchain-based currencies on the horizon- Digital and stable coins versus cryptos The Chinese political system allows its leaders to squash competition from other cryptocurrencies as it rolls out its new digital yuan. While the US, Europe, and other countries will roll out digital dollars, euros, and other e-currencies based on blockchain technology over the coming years, they will not have the same latitude to crush competition from cryptocurrencies. We are likely to see a flurry of regulatory moves in anticipation of western digital currencies, but it will be a slow process. China can act immediately, while differing political factions in the US and Europe will spend months, if not years, debating the regulatory framework. I believe we will see a schism in the blockchain currency world that will separate cryptocurrencies from government-issued digital currencies and stable coins. A stable coin is a hybrid as it pegs its price to another crypto, fiat money, or exchange-traded commodities. China would like to see cryptos disappear, which is the likely sentiment for all governments as power comes from controlling money. I believe the global regulatory framework will eventually favor digital government-issued currencies and stable coins over pure cryptocurrencies. The ideological divide is vast. Cryptocurrency’s philosophical backbone is libertarian as they represent a rejection of the central bank and government’s control of money. As the asset class grows, the gap will widen. Chinese actions against cryptos could be the tip of the iceberg. While China and the US governments agree on little, they could be comrades-in-arms in a war against the cryptocurrency philosophy. Carbon, security, custody, and control are the issues facing cryptos Four of the problems facing cryptocurrencies have different ramifications for the asset class’s future. Elon Musk highlighted the carbon footprint left by Bitcoin miners when Tesla (TSLA) decided to abandon plans to accept Bitcoin as payment for its EVs. Mining requires substantial energy, so the asset class will need to continue addressing net-zero carbon extraction methods. The rising number of computer hacks poses a threat to computer wallets. Ironically, hackers have held systems hostage for ransom in Bitcoin and other cryptos like Monero. Security when it comes to wallets in cyberspace and regulations to track flows are issues the asset class. Security could be the governmental excuse, requiring transparency and strip away some of the anonymity. Custody on a grand scale is another issue that has prevented the introduction of market-based products like ETF and ETN tools that would provide further acceptance of cryptocurrencies by investors and traders. Many market participants are reticent to hold the tokens in computer wallets. A custody system that ensures ownership and storage of cryptocurrencies will go a long way to pushing the asset class further into the mainstream. Government control of the money supply is the most critical issue facing the asset class. Leaders are not likely to surrender the power of the purse string to a group of libertarian instruments. Those who control the money supply have the power. This ideological gulf will likely lead to the bifurcation between cryptos versus government-issued digital currencies. Stable coins will fall on the side of the fence depending on underlying forces. A stable coin based on crypto would be crypto, while one based on fiat currency or commodity values would likely find support as digital currencies. A digital dollar and euro are on the horizon, but the government needs to “get it right.” When questioned about the futures of a digital dollar, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hit the nail on the head with his answer. The leader of the central bank is a master of deflection and unanswered questions. When asked about the period the Fed looks to for its “average of a 2% inflation rate,” his answer was it is “discretionary.” However, when it comes to a digital dollar, he said the most important thing is to “get it right.” With so many conflicting vested interests in government and business in the US and Europe, the process will be laborious. A digital dollar, digital euro, and other cyber currencies based on blockchain technology are on the horizon. Under the current US administration, which has a far more globalist orientation, I expect coordination with G-7 and perhaps other friendly governments to challenge the emerging digital yuan, which will be the first digital currency to hit the market running. China has an advantage as the central planned political system puts regulation and other aspects in the hands of one leader with the final decision. The process in the US, Europe, and other countries will be far more challenging. Digital currencies are the children of blockchain technology. The chicken or egg question between Bitcoin and blockchain is not essential as blockchain is the concept that propels the evolution of the financial revolution. Use the links below to sign up for free early access to new posts and register for the free Monday Night Strategy Call. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CME:BTC1!
by Andy_Hecht
1