Watch out! Iceberg ahead!As we trade at the top of this wedge, volume has been on a decline. Also, bearish divergence on the weekly TF -- not great! And, it would only make sense for us to go down for the E wave before breaking out. This is strictly a technical analysis, so yes, Carnival could definitely pump if they come out with some great news -- doubtful though as cruises keep getting cancelled and delayed.
I am personally picking up $30 puts with a 8/20 expiration. I am certainly not betting heavy on this move as I rarely have luck with puts. (This is not financial advice)
Carnivalcruises
Carnival Corporation… find the lowers and BUYas we know the US government is continuing to maximize the vaccination process.. this is good news for the travel industry or cruise ships. They have started operations, although not yet optimally, but after all Americans get the vaccine, we can be sure that this industry will run again.. this is an opportunity to buy CCL stock…
$CCL Breakout To Wave 5?Carnival Cruise Lines shares have completed wave four with a bounce off of an important trendline, the 50 day SMA, and a key structure level. The MACD has also crossed on this daily chart. Shares are now approaching resistance, which indicates that we may see a breakout to wave five very soon. Leave a like and comment your thoughts :) Good Luck!
Long Carnival CCLCarnival stock CCL is trading above its exponential moving averages after finding a support at $24.30.
CCL violated the downward trend line upwardly in an attempt from the bulls to take control over prices.
Sellers tested the violated trend line, then prices retread from it opening the door for targeting $29.90.
This looks badThe Carnival Corp. is in the focus of many investors and traders. This can be seen in the significant increase in volume since 2020.
The idea of the most behind it, is very simple. The stock was significantly punished by the Covid 19 pandemic and "must" rise again when Corona is over.
Basically not a bad idea... BUT...
Investors should rethink their idea, because nobody expected it to take so long to fight the virus. Although it is foreseeable that the virus will be less present, this does not immediately mean that the "ships will resume full speed".
If you also look at the chart from the perspective of technical analysis, it becomes clear that the rise in 2020 is only a correction of the downward movement. It also shows that Carnival Corp. was already in a downward trend before Corona.
Investors should therefore pay attention. For me, this stock is only an alternative again if there is a clear rise with massive volume and at the same time a breakout out of the channel.
Going by volume, the market considers the stock to be fairly valued at around $15.
CAUTION!
Carnival Cruise Line - "Megaphones"Currently, I'm still looking for the best price to enter a long-term investment. The technical analysis gives a hint that it possible for CCL to recover. We can see a potential Golden cross on the daily time-frame and a Broadening Wedge Patterns or "Megaphones" on the weekly.
Sooner or later, the business and tourism will be back to normal. Carnival will be on my watchlist for a long-term investment.
Here's below the "Megaphones"
Catalyst:
- Golden Cross
- Megaphones
Carnival Stock Analysis with Technical AnalysisBased on Technical Analysis the best option would be to hold for now, before going long.
NYSE:CCL
Fundamental Analysis
Cruise ship stocks gave back some of their recent gains on Thursday, as surging COVID-19 case counts threaten to delay the beleaguered industry's recovery. By the close of trading, shares of Carnival (NYSE:CCL) (NYSE:CUK), Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NASDAQ:NCLH) were down 7.8%, 3.9%, and 3.4%, respectively.
Cruise ship stocks surged on Monday after Pfizer and BioNTech said their experimental coronavirus vaccine could be more than 90% effective at preventing COVID-19. A safe and highly effective vaccine would be a boon for cruise ship operators, who have suffered billions in losses with their ships stuck at port due to coronavirus-related sailing restrictions.
However, even if Pfizer and BioNTech receive regulatory approval, their vaccine may not be widely available until well into 2021. In the meantime, Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line are burning through nearly $1 billion in cash per month in aggregate.
With COVID-19 case counts soaring in the U.S. and many international markets, health officials could choose to extend sailing restrictions into 2021. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings have all raised cash to survive such a scenario, but each month that goes by eats into their cash cushions, thereby increasing the risk for investors.
$CCL Swing Trade AnalysisIn this post, I will be going in detail with regards to my view of $CCL from a technical perspective.
As of the time that I am writing this post, $CCL closed at $17.69 with a pre-market trading value of $17.75. Currently, I am bullish long-term on $CCL unless there are new developments that impact the fundamentals of the cruise industry negatively. I also have multiple entries on $CCL in which I averaged up to an average cost price of $16.02.
Technical Analysis
I believed that I have broken down the technical aspect of $CCL's chart quite clearly in the candlestick chart above, but just to add on a few things:
1. With regards to my price target, if an Ascending Triangle forms, I will take profit when $CCL breaks out towards the upside into the downtrend trading channel which I have drawn in the charts. From there, I may or may not re-enter a position. This will depend on how $CCL reacts to the channel.
2. With regards to my price target, if a Rising Wedge form, I will take profit when $CCL breaks out from the Rising Wedge towards the downside. However, because the downtrend that came before the Rising Wedge is a downtrend that was driven by COVID-19, a black swan event, it is likely that if market sentiments are bullish enough due to the wide availability of COVID-19 vaccines, positive news regarding the cruise industry, etc., prices could still break out towards the upside. As such, these require further monitoring.
3. However, if neither an Ascending Triangle nor a Rising Wedge form, where the market remains uncertain, I will likely hold my position while averaging up/down accordingly, PROVIDED that there are no fundamental changes towards the company and the industry itself.
Disclaimer
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment, or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
If this post has helped you out in making your investment/trading decision, do it give it a like, and follow for more updates regarding this ticker symbol!
CCL - Carnival Cruise Lines We haven't checked back in with the Cruise Industry in a bit so lets take a look at where we stand.
The Cruise industry was one of the hardest hit by Covid19 and to top it off they didn't receive any US stimulus relief money to keep them afloat, making them one of the riskier plays. As the saying goes, with great risk often comes great reward. That being said, if we're going into an already risky industry, might as well pick the company most likely to succeed. In this case, while so far most of the cruise lines are staying afloat, Carnival is the one most likely to make it out ok.
We went into this with more detail on our previous CCL posts, but to sum it up, they cover the most territories, have the largest fleet, have the most capital, and can survive the longest without sailings than its competitors. At the moment, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) has announced the decision to voluntarily extend the pause in U.S. cruise embarkations until Oct. 31, 2020. CCL estimated its monthly cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 will be around $650 million, but they have also managed to raise over $10 billion through a series of financing transactions.
Technical Analysis:
At the moment, we're bullish long term on CCL unless something changes (increase in cases during winter, extended cancellations, etc.)
Targets:
1. $21.00
2. $25.30
3. $31.91
Feel free to give us a follow and shoot us a like for more analysis updates.
Cheers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Feel free to give us a follow and shoot us a like for more analysis updates.
30c CCL 08/21/20 or 32.5c CCL 09/21/20Macro Formation: Bear Flag.
May 15: Micro Formation
Bullish Pennant. Exploded to $25 after breakout. Reached target at June 12. (1 month's time)
June 30: Micro Formation
Falling Wedge. Estimate Explosion to $30. Estimate reach target at August 4. (1 month's time)
Healthy Indicators: Daily MACD, Weekly MACD, and Monthly MACD (beautiful)
CCL (Carnival Cruise Lines) Now, I know a ton of People that bought into CCL becasue of the "Bargin Deal". But lets not forget that cruise lines were one of the main vectors for SARS2 into the states. if you read the 1st 10Q for CCL they tell you that their reputation might not recover because their ships name associated with SARS2-COV19 and that they may not recover from that. Its under the risk factors section of their 10Q and i think their 10K aswell. Here we have a bearish flag pattern and if PA breaks the channel and failes the restest i am afraid alot of people are going to be out of pocket alot of money. I dont do much stock trading as its too expensive with the Commissions, slippage, broker fees and everything else. but i do like speculating. Lets hope im wrong and everyone makes money and CCL makes rebound because i like cruising!
NCLH Grade 5 math = easy short opChanging sentiment on a huge material change PR that wont see operations all summer.
NCLH endured an operation net loss of $1.8B in q1 (after having ticket sales of $1.2B)
Imagine the q2 book after no months of ticket sales.
They have $16B in assets, $1.3B of that is cash but with $12B in debt.
Bringing us to bottom line book equity of $4.3B
Customers from q1 sales are going to want their money back, I'm not even pricing that in here.
They really needed to open this summer.
Sure the company can last 18 months, but at what cost to shareholders? They will 100% require another debt round or equity round to exist.
My price target is 10$ in the near term & i'll be adding to any fake squeezes. Math supersedes the RH pump.
Short $NCLH to single digits.
Carnival Corp (CCL): Carnival surfs the second wave of COVID-192020 AUG-1: Carnival Corp will resume cruise ship travel with 8 trips planned starting Aug 1st.
Just as most COVID cases have peaked in New York and around the world, CCL is announcing a return to business-as-usual. This announcement was made despite CDC warnings.
A second wave is highly anticipated. The stay-at-home protesters (although a small minority) aren't helping to contain the spread. However, cruise vacations may not a be a priority for the economically troubled middle and lower classes. Difficult to tell how high demand will be. Then again, consumers have been bottled up at home. Enough will book cruises to create positive (short-term) outlook. Unless Carnival enacts social distancing measures that succeed on their ships, I don't see them exceeding 3 trip this year before an outbreak forces them to suspend travel again.
I have no faith in them or the travelers aboard to follow strict guidelines. We can't even do it at home. Imagine a boat full of entitled travelers looking to break from the reality that is COVID.
Thanks for reading my non-technical mumbo jumbo. I read the news and speculate human stupidity and greed. Also, science trumps all.
What do you think of this idea?
References:
COVID has peaked: www.cidrap.umn.edu
Carnival Cruises resumes August 1st: www.cnbc.com
Carnival is not yet ready to Party! Need Volume ConfirmationAnalysis:
1/ Price retraced above 50% - It's unlikely to create new low
2/ Consolidating to build strength to take our $13 resistance
3/ Overbought in the last 20+days - likely for price to go down to do a fakeout
4/ Boom!!! The party happens after fakeout - expect at $10 range
Confirmations for a big run:
1/ Already oversold for the price to go down for a fakeout - Timer set to alert me to start entering trade.
2/ Waiting for volume to cross above my timer for change in trend
3/ If/when price breaks $13 resistance, I'll add more.
CCL - The Fun Ship Is Finally Ready to Break Free and PartyFull disclosure. My first post. I hope I do a good service with this analysis.
My Analysis:
In short, CCL retraced a hair above 50% of its previous high. History says it's not going to create a new low. So I'm bullish with the consolidation I highlighted, its building strength for a big bull run up to $18.
I set FIB to whole numbers -- $19 (high) /$8 (low) because computer algorithm is programmed to hit those numbers.
What do you think?
Feel Free to leave a comment.