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Carry

The Secrets to Forex & Protecting Your CarryYou must read the prior articles first. If this was a video game you would probably be trying to skip the conversation boxes at this point. Don't try to speedrun this, you'll die at the boss. --------------------------------------- I'm sure you're tired of all the poetry and want to get straight to the money. Money, after all, is the best form of entertainment. Now, last time we left off with timeframes and carry conditions, key components of the overall risk management message I want to get across. I figured that most retail traders operate on multiday/multiweek positions. Most know next to nothing about carry risk or other unique risks present only for non-intraday traders. If you intend to hold positions across several weeks/months (see pt. 3 for the definition), then this section is the most important of all the articles to come. In addition, I recommend doing additional research, especially if you have a job, are in schooling, or other responsibilities; because understanding this risk (and potential reward) can be very beneficial for those with limited time to spend. Part 1: Country-level Assets All wealthy people own assets. Assets can appreciate. If you 'own' a lot, you are, by default, wealthy. At least, for a brief moment in time. When you trade in forex, you are investing in a type of asset underwritten by a 'country' and paired with a similar underlying. The country creates the supply, and sets minimum standards in demand via tax law. Like businesses with stocks, countries with currencies and bonds can default, and flatline, leading to a breadline utopia. Inversely, they can also grow, and produce something of market value; and then provide returns to everyone that bet something on them. Some countries are flailing about, some countries are stable, and some are growing with seemingly no obstacles in sight. Which one would you want to invest in? Remember the dividend question? Before some median-salary economist gets in a huff, yes it's not always as simple as 'growing country = growing interest rates.' But here's what's important for retail traders: Central banks manage these 'country-level' assets with an evolving toolbox to variable acclaim. I recommend doing your own research into that topic, because it's too far outside the scope of these articles, and there are no unified verdicts on the 'science' behind any of it. The important thing to understand is that when you invest in these country-level assets, some countries demand a fee rate, and some offer a dividend rate. THAT'S IT. Room temperature or higher IQs will get this. Part 2: Free to Play vs Fees to Play You can find these rates by googling: 'central bank interest rates.' Those negative rates are FEES TO PLAY. Zero or higher is FREE TO PLAY. If you hold currency at a broker, these rates are realized and charged or credited to your market position at the daily rollover event. This occurs at the end of the 24hr cycle set to City time. So if you hold positions over 24hr cycles, you will be charged or credited REAL MONEY (no delivery gimmicks). Now, you can't trade currency in isolation in forex, it's always in the form of a pair. In case you haven't figured this out yet, the forex trader is the type of player these articles are designed for. This means, in lazy phrasing, that you are betting on the demand for the money (investor appeal) of one country AGAINST another. If you want to invest in a country as is, you can opt for national or municipal bonds, but note they do have slightly different carry conditions. But to stay on target, what do you think happens when you match a higher rate with a lower rate? The USD is a higher rate than the JPY. The USD is free to play, the JPY charges a fee to play. When you open a position in the market, you are FUNDING one of those currencies (basically against the other). This means you are liable to the interest rate gap. Brokers have an unnecessarily complicated explanation for why they HAVE to pay you money (or take your money) even though price action may not technically move from 23:59 to 00:01. They want to balance the books in a way they are comfortable with, because they have lots of liabilities with major liquidity providers. The net takeaway is that most brokers will generally charge or credit based on the interest rate gap between the currencies in your selected pair. So carry conditions are relevant accross most brokers unless you have a based Islamic account. Note that most brokers have a separate fee (usually .25%), which means if the interest rates are equal then you still get charged at rollover. There are other subtractions brokers will make as well (never in your favor), sometimes cutting deep in the rate gap. Unsurprisingly, they want to pay you as little as possible; in some cases, you can be charged on rollover regardless of gap or position direction. This is why you need to check the 'specification' of the pair in your MT4 to see the swap (or use a calculator provided by your broker.) Some brokers have special rules for emerging currencies with high rates like 8%, other brokers may offer advantages for trading these depending on their business structure. Wed to Thurs rollover is a x3 event , basically to make up for the lack of a rollover event on Sat and Sun night. You're probably wondering why these 'small percents' matter. After all, you're in forex to make highly leveraged internet magic money, not some quarterly dividend payment like your boomer parents. Part 3: Make America Think Again But it's just pennies a day right, who cares? Carry conditions can cost or credit you pennies a day or thousands of dollars a day, depending on the size of your position or the pair in play. On some pairs, you can make 15~ USD a day with just 1 lot in the market. That's over 5k a year USD. That's the equivalent of 540 pips a year, WITH 1 LOT ON 1 PAIR. And all you have to do, is fund a high rate currency bet against a low rate currency on a popular broker. That's it. No technical moonworshipping required. No stalking some coin startups social media for pump and dump schemes. No staying up all night worrying about the West going to war with Iran because you longed the Euro before dinner. It's the opposite of the coin flip, its coin printing. Many retail traders are from developing and emerging countries, it can be an excellent opportunity for men and women of all ages. Its like working at Wall Street and sending the remittances back, all from the ease of your home; without any political, religious, cultural, or economic barriers to get in your way. Sure it's not really that convenient. But the analogy would've been really cool if it worked. So what can happen, for example. At .40 lots for a full position, you would net 1.80 USD a day. Assuming 2 weeks to fill a position at optimal entry points (we'll talk about this later), and a remaining 2.5 month duration (5 fortnites), you net about 130 from carry credit payments during that trade period (1/4 a year), and be able to close with a very profitable or at least at a net-positive price level. Keep in mind, the average yearly takehome is anywhere from 2k-10k in developing countries. 1.8 a day can represent significant supplimentary income, and you only need 100-250 (in USD equivalent value) to support margin at most brokers. You could reinvest those winnings over the course of the first year and start the next year earning 7-8 USD a day. Now some of you might have more cash to waste. With a career in a developed country, maybe you have 25-50k to responsibly throw around in your 20s, no family, STEM job, good rent contract, little student debt, etc. We can upgrade that position size to 4 to 8 lots. 18-37 USD per day. You'll be doubling (before tax) your initial capital every 4 years. Part 4: Fields of Pink But wait, what if you have the opposite position? You fund a low rate currency against a high rate currency, or your trash broker demands fees on both. Your inverted head and shoulders 4h pattern looks (and smells) great, and you're ready to long the EURUSD. You plan to hold this one for a month at least, until it hits some absolute number like 1.200 (because it's the fifth wave in some model a statistician invented 40 years ago), and therefore, must happen. You decided your 'RR' would be 3 to 1, a 150 pip stop loss and a 450 take profit. You're already taking a tendie loan out at KFC in anticipation of a big win down the line. Meanwhile, you're losing 13 dollars a day (or let's say 0.5-2 pips worth of loss), guaranteed. Because you're paying a fee to play, while taking a bet that fails at a near 50% rate (much higher for retail), while throwing away weeks/months of time in anticipation of a result/delivery (capital opportunity cost). Now, if you had ten thousand years of nutritionally deficient ancestors, I can't blame you for this decision-making. But most of us haven't. So here it is, another forex secret: Quite simply, there are pairs the vast majority of you shouldn't be trading, and that includes majors with poor carry conditions (losers both ways with rollover). Pairs like CHFJPY, or any pair that has you longing the JPY or CHF (and usually EUR). Betting against the USD is another insured risk, when looking at majors. It doesn't mean you should never fund a low rate against a high rate, but you need to think in terms of FEES. Is it worth paying a daily fee to make this trade? Now, for the greedy. You'll need to do your own research, to decide if hunting extremely high rates on emerging/exotic currencies is the best course for you and your margin, of if settling with minimal (but not negative) rates on crosses or other majors is good enough for your strategy. My guidance is to look into emerging currencies if you don't have much time to trade daily (someone with a full-time job or family) or you don't intend to sink 1,000s of hours into mastering the intra-day trade (nightmare mode). Part 5: Washington Consensus Trading with carry conditions in mind can even be advantageous compared to other asset classes (like stocks or corporate bonds). It's like trading a high yield junk bond, only you have far less risk from defaults. What's a safer institution? Some 5 month-old, toothbrush-sharing, 10 slide company with 8 employees, or the full might of a nationstate? Sure, a few nationstates have defaulted in modern history. The upside is you usually have lots of heads-up, because default tends to be political in nature. That is, if you're a nation in need of cash, you can always get a loan. It's simply a matter of if the terms are politically acceptable for your faction. This all factors into the 'heads-up' period, alerting you to pull out or reverse your position. The US tends to sanction them beforehand (conveniently) kicking you out of those markets ahead of total economic disaster. The complete opposite occurs with some shady junk bond at 15%, where the company disappears overnight. Companies fail for the smallest things, they fail all the time, and the world goes on. A country failing is always geopolitical in nature and market rules about fair play are thrown out the window. This is an intrinsic advantage to forex and global macro tradables in general. I'll talk more about the future risk of national defaults and the utility and primacy of forex as an asset class in the final article. So beyond the obvious consideration, which is to fund a high rate currency against a low rate; what pairs should you trade and how else could you mind carry conditions while holding a long term position? Should you stick to emerging (exotic) currencies against safe-haven currencies? IE, you only short the EURMXN or fund against the CHF? And what indicators/models (from article pt.2) should you use to achieve the safest average price entry? Part 6: Not All Edges are Sharpe Forex is highly volatile, so you may have an advantage in the carry conditions, but suffer a net loss from a poor initial position when you decide to close. A currency with a negative rate could move against you, bigly. Remember, the future holds unlimited risk. But the distinction here (as mentioned in the prior article), is the resilient value in understanding that contracts can have insured risk outcomes. Cost/benefits that are legally settled (from the past) at the point of opening position and at the rollover event, even if brokers tinker with the point payouts, the 'deal' is still there in some form. Here's a poorly kept institutional secret, greed often drives the price in the direction of the higher interest rate currency in a pair over multi-month periods, so this doesn't really matter. Wealthy investors are greedy for higher payouts from emerging countries: where labor is cheaper, new factories spring up all the time, and real estate can be opportune. Part 7: Bat Soup vs the Fortune 500 Old school risk theory in markets argues that high volatility = high risk, but in recent years it has evolved beyond such mathematical explanations, especially as consecutive market challenges broke paradigms. Boomers are slow learners, but they adapt quickly when they start losing money. The subprime crisis cost them big time. And it's true today for our sniffle pandemic. It's simple: On high timeframes across longer-term positions, macroeconomics and geopolitics reign supreme. This isn't just a forex rule. This has been true since the dawn of markets in human society, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. Regulation and interest rates are variables that follow those leaders (not precede). That is, their behavior is shaped by the first two; macro and geopolitics. Think about COVID-19. Look what a few bats and one strange wet market did this world. Macroeconomics and geopolitics produce basic patterns in the human brain that propagate through our societies as two different frequencies: the short wavelength called fear or the long wavelength called security (interpreted in complex ways by players in markets). These are filtered by timezones, languages, civilizational and organizational biases, technology, individual upbringings, and the incumbency of delusion and greed. Nanoseconds, or years later, this all gets represented as a market outcome on a chart. Amazing that people spend so much time analyzing the chaotic patterns of some shit on a floor instead of what was on the menu last night, when they try to understand what went wrong. So if you can understand markets during these strong periods of psychological stress, and during soft periods of algorithm auctioning and market making (call it ranging), then you can sail all the seas and survive all the storms. This is where concepts like seasonality, ATR, regressions, psychological origination, hedging, news trading, major moving averages, and others come into play. In the coming weeks, I'll start to break down the major components of those, and where the center of price gravity and extremes are for these higher timeframe, longer-term positions. So you can find the optimal entry opportunities for longer-term trades, while also taking advantage or hedging against carry conditions. It's time to start charting the course.
Education
by CountofCoins
The Secrets to Forex & Miller's Planet (pt.3)You must read the preceding parts first. This one is a real doozy. Watch your reading comprehension levels go up in realtime. ------------------------------ "Very, very few people could appreciate the bubble. That's the nature of bubbles – they're mass delusions." - Buffett Last time we talked about how people who speculate are inherently delusional and are all in the process of losing; usually just money. The only way to 'win at losing' is to survive the delusion game by understanding the players and their psychology; not by guessing if price will be higher or lower in 10 years. When you survive, you are rewarded; all the money from big losers goes to the remaining players at the table. That's the derivatives, near zero-sum market in a nutshell. Sometimes players take their winnings and walk away, sometimes new players join the table. But in the end, 'the bucks are all that matter, everything else is just conversation.' The charts, the econ news, the geopolitical shocks... they only matter insofar as they influence the psychology of the players at the table. This is why you have to align your trading philosophy with player psychology first, and at the same time, reduce your risk presence when you take 'bets' in the market. Think of 'reducing risk presence' as surviving or holding on and think of 'surviving' as taking a piece of the pie from the losers when they hit zero. Remember, markets existed long before Adam Smith 'invented' capitalism. The original merchants and traders achieved longterm profitability by two methods: collusion, or by navigating wars, famine, oppression... Things haven't changed as much as you might think. Chapter 1: The Margin of Psychology Now, after the 2 parts, you've probably had enough of this distilled pseudo-academic fluff and you're ready for the valuable details. Too bad chief, here's another fluffy paragraph. Again, get used to losing. In the last part, I ended it by questioning if disorder can be consistent enough to be orderly. Now, we don't have to assume an orderly interpretation of disorder. It's proven by the presence of profitable traders/investors. The household names like Buffett and Soros. They operated, to a degree, on something investors call a 'margin of safety.' Which is: 'the intrinsic value versus the current or last price offer.' This is similar to what I've been presenting all along, only I disregard this Plato-like intrinsic value notion; please refer to my part 2 sectioned 'Emergence of Estimation' and read through 'Fact, Fiction, & Forecast' if you want the full take on this. Using fair value, or the center of price gravity, or more simply: 'resilient value;' especially when we are talking about derivatives and forex, serves as a better frame of mind. Because.. value only exists in the mind in a near zero-sum game. But thanks to psychology, there is some element of order present in the otherwise disorderly markets. You can worry about the ethical issues of big zero-sum money games later, after you can afford to read Das Kapital on your yacht. Chapter 2: Counting Cost I have spent a long time trying to find reliable patterns or orderly events in derivative markets. I have used or tested over 3000 indicators, experts, or scripts. So many that my MT4 terminal stopped showing them and I had to start an indicator genocide worthy of a binding UN resolution. Countless all-nighters across both small and large forums evaluating both the popular and wildly unconventional strategies and theories of forex. Books, videos, etc. 4, 5, 6 years and on. The stranger and more contrarian the idea, the more interested I became. More interesting to me than the idea itself was the line of thinking that created the idea in the first place. Why did retail traders think this way? Why did commercial traders think this other way? I was able to both regard and disregard the most qualified, and do the same for the least qualified. It's not a surprising lesson, but you have to go out of your comfort zones and destroy your biases to learn valuable things. Peter Thiel's contrarian thinking runs on this kinda stuff. Think about what has happened in the past several years. Contrarian thinking can turn idiots into geniuses these days. Chapter 3: Hidden vs Too Close to See Eventually, I stopped looking for a hidden far-off solution and started looking closer. You ever search your house to find your lost car keys only to later realize it was in your jacket pocket all along? Too poor to have a house, a car, or a jacket? Well, then keep reading. So I started looking at the in-betweens. What's as close as possible to the decision making agent itself? The first finding is that charts rarely have clear patterns, but human minds often do. From then on, research became straightforward and fruitful. How do I turn that theory into something that makes money, or at least doesn't lose money? I found the major candidates, the independent variables that create these flashes of order, these predictable events or parameters. It's not perfectly rigid, but its the next best thing in the highly volatile world of forex. Chapter 4: Executing 66 Orders First off, it's not as simple as a single mind's biases resulting in huge moves on a chart. To use a basic military analogy, you have to think in terms of a chain of command. From a few big 'minds' to many small 'minds.' Or, you have to follow the killchain step by step. From psychological origination to execution. Obviously, execution is when the order is filled and liable to p&l. We have lots of charting and analytical tools for market movement and execution. But what is the origination? How do you properly connect them? Can you chart or summarize origination and its 'plane?' So far I've talked a lot about psychology, but not much about specific biases relevant to forex. Or how a collection of 'psychologies' in the 'real world' might constitute a broader social factor, which, as a unit of analysis, goes on to influence markets in predictable ways. Does a commercial fund have biases? Does a central bank have biases? Does Wall Street have different biases than the City? Four broad but related questions: What is psychological origination and why do social factors matter? Based on the above, how do you setup or build an 'orderly' chart to find that resilient value? How do you use that knowledge to better manage risk and reduce uncertainty? And by extension, how exactly does that make you a more profitable trader? These questions will be fully addressed across the next several parts (maybe 7 or 8 more). I'm going to skip a deep dive into the first question for now, so you don't get too bogged down on the abstract thinking stuff, and instead mix it a bit with something familiar and more visual in question 2. For the rest of this article, we gotta talk timeframes and contracts first. Chapter 5: Murph's Law Time matters in forex. It matters a lot, and in ways some of you probably have yet to consider. In markets and finance, time shapes the parameters of most contracts. I would use a long analogy from Interstellar and Miller's planet (just watch the movie), but the key here is that: SOME RISK IS NEARLY GUARANTEED (written into the contract) while SOME RISK IS TIED TO SPECULATION ONLY. It's the difference between limited risk that is insured by the past versus unlimited risk that exists only via the future (you can have both as well). Up until now, we have dealt with the second, and not the first. Forex standards and practices (de facto contract rules), give us the first. Let me introduce timeframes, and then return to this so everything connects neatly. There are many different approaches to categorizing timeframes. By the common candlebar duration (1h, 4h, D; in other words it's categorized specifically by the 24hr clock); group A , or by abstract accumulation (like renko or heatmaps or orderbook data); group B . Now, the latter is a loose fit for a timeframe concept, it can be discrete and confusing, but you can argue 'realtime' or 'all-time' as a timeframe in itself. I won't be discussing realtime very much, and I strongly recommend you read the disclaimer far below if you are a crypto trader or have access to prime data or level two data in general. IF you are a forex trader that fits into group B, let's say a Renko trader, then you need not worry about the indicators or models I present. However, I've only known one successful Renko trader, and he had custom designed analytics. So good luck with Renko, gentlemen. I will focus on the group A category of timeframes: OHLC, Henken, line, etc. Everything that follows will be based on those. Chapter 6: Don't Fail Science Class The more you think of markets by real life principles, the clearer everything becomes. Which is why I want to explain timeframes by analogy. You could argue that markets share some basic similarities, at least from a layman's impression, to classical and quantum mechanics. The smaller the timeframe, the more random and chaotic they appear. And vice-versa. The center of price gravity at higher timeframes is more resilient to chaotic bits of new information. It's more certain . To use Bohm's term, you could argue its 'enfolding' or 'enfolded.' That while the general state of things is a chaotic flowing river, whirlpools with a set of persistent parameters can still exist in those rivers. All this really means is that different timeframes/sessions/days require different indicators and/or applications of those indicators. In addition, a full risk management approach takes into account the pairs/currencies chosen as well since their behavior may vary (choosing the river), and the nature of the contract itself (does it have a waterfall or extend forever?). Simple summary: some things are more certain at long-term timeframes and some things are more uncertain at short-term timeframes . Most of you will already know this. Chapter 7: Slaves to the Timezones When I'm talking about short-term timeframes and long-term timeframes, I mean intra-day versus weekly or monthly. Technically you could trade something like the 4h or daily within a single day. (but to avoid confusion, I want to focus on timeframes as the periods from which you open and close positions, not the duration of the candlebar). In other words, opening and closing positions within the 24 hour period (from open to market close). Versus. Positions held across multiple days/weeks. This is very important because they are effectively different types of market contracts because of the risk of rollover. (unless you have an Islamic account) In general: IF YOU ARE HOLDING POSITIONS ACROSS MULTIPLE WEEKS, you need to have either a genius technical or fundamental system OR, you need to be designing your trades with carry conditions in mind. 99% of you will fit the latter. Inevitably, this means your long term risk management must be quite different than short term risk management; particularly in the weighting of seasonality models and interest rates. I'll explain this stuff in the next article, but for now, make a selection: Imagine owning a stock that pays you a dividend (😏), now imagine owning a stock that pays no dividend (😴), and now imagine owning a stock where you pay the company a dividend (😂). Keep your "obvious" selection in mind, because it's gonna upset retail paradigms when I tell you why you're trading the wrong pairs on the wrong timeframes. See you next time. ------------------------------------ DISCLAIMER: Now, I should've mentioned this earlier but IF you are a cryptocurrency trader, and some of you reading this may very well be, let this be clear: I did not design these articles for your consumption. Though crypto is arguably a currency, it's core mechanics are different, as is the psychology of the players involved and the market structure. The legal, tax, and broader financial components vary (the nature of the contracts, the timezone/session influences). Indeed, regulation is the main fundamental in cryptocurrency right now, making it a market potentially susceptible to a near-total collapse (at least for blocks of investors) depending on the providence of your broker or income tax obligations.
Education
by CountofCoins
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years : UK interest rates = 0,74 Turkey interest rates = 23 If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is : 23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly) Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky. This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Education
by Noldo
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
Long
by auroraspot
AUDUSD: RBA SOMP HIGHLIGHTS - NFP GUIDANCE FROM HEREThe RBA was relatively neutral on the margin, keeping their inflation targets the same at 1.5-2.5. However, unfortunately for aussie shorts the RBA didnt offer any forward guidence on sentiment towards further easing, or specific reference to the aussie FX level - despite there being a strong bid bias brewing in the aud$ cross post-25bps cut. Also their forecasts for underlying inflation imo were quite positive at 1.5% vs 1.0% currently - this infers the RBA perhaps even thinks that the 1.5% rate will be sufficient to reach their inflation target, and that another cut this year isnt being thought about given they predict on target inflation with current policy. Although this does then run the downside risk of inflation staying low (as i expect) which may force the RBAs hand to cut again at years end if inflation is below 1.% or another print that misses the 1.5% expected mark. At these levels aussie looks attractive on the offer with a 0.74xx target - however USD supply has been strife since last week when rate expectations sold off amid poor GDP print to just p12% in september - down from 25% earlier in the week.. this week failed to improve, with little impetus for this to be the case, though the greenback now looks to NFP today for guidance. A beat/ firm print should help aussie offer well at these levels given we are right at the double top 0.766 level, so any USD strength arising from the NFP print has a bias to see AUD$ move lower, though as the macro landscape questionably is changing, it is uncertain if it will be enough to surpress yield seekers demand for aussie deposits for long/ a sustained period (if at all), which is expecially odd since we saw the rate brought down this week whihc should have set a bearish tone for the week, as we have seen with the BOE and GBP. After NFP we will have a clearer view. From here i think aussie positioning should be sidelined until the NFP print is clear - a miss and i actually think Aussie is better to trade bid, with 0.78 a firm target. A NFP hit and that should offer aussie lower, though for some reason I see the risk asymmetrically skewed to aussie topside, given the very week reaction to what is/ should be the biggest fundamental driver possible - a rate cut. So much of this trade is being vigilant - an NFP miss, buy a 0.766 confirmed breakout, a NFP hit - ensure AUD$ is trading with a clear bid bias.. any 10-30pips movement lower will not suffice at these levels, aussie is still likely bidding. RBA Minutes Highlights: - Underlying Inflation To Remain Under 2% For Much Of Forecast Period, Reach 2 % By End 2018 - Prospects For Economy Positive, But Low Inflation Allows For "Even Stronger Growth" - Judged Risks Associated With Rising House Prices And Debt Had Diminished - A$ Remains Significant Source Of Uncertainty For Inflation, Growth Forecasts - Economic Growth And Inflation Forecasts Little Changed Overall - Forecasts Underlying Inflation 1.5% By End 2016, 1.5-2.5% End 2017, 1.5-2.5% End 2018 - Forecasts GDP Growth 2.5-3.5% End 2016, 2.5-3.5% End 2017, 3-4% End 2018 - Says Unemployment To Fall Only A Little Out To 2018, Employment Growth To Be Modest This Year - Drag On GDP From Falling Mining Investment Looks To Have Peaked, Non-Mining Still Subdued - Dwelling Investment To Stay Strong For Next Year Or So, But Raises Risk Of Oversupply - GDP Growth Looks To Have Moderated In Q2 As Net Exports Added Less - Wage Growth Expected To Remain Low, Rise Modestly Out To 2018 - Increasing Supply, China Steel Cutbacks To Put Downward Pressure On Iron Ore Prices - Growth In China Expected To Slow Gradually Over Next Few Years, Housing A Risk - Brexit To Have Limited Effect On Australia's Major Trading Partners
by QuantumLogicTrading
11
Dollar Futures point to UpsideThe ceiling of 100 has been a historically stubborn level. But looking at the same level on a longer horizon also shows the explosion of dollar strength above 100. The market only expects two rate hikes in 2016 despite the Fed dot plot estimating four. The market has not begun to factor in additional moves and other fundamental features that are dollar positive (carry trade). Pushing through 100 may prove to be difficult but the squeeze afterward is the money maker.
DLong
by Burdman
Breakout: EURUSD new carry tradeWith the technical validation of the fundamental environment, it appears the new range for EURUSD is 1.08 to 1.055 The continuous slide of USDJPY without follow-through in the dollar lends itself to the conclusion of winding down long positions in USDJPY lacking the apparent short in dollar alone. The prevailing rhetoric is "safe haven" seeking, that leads to the appreciation of yen, with a flight from risk evident in mainland Asian markets. I believe the movement in pair is more likely removing profitable trades while the underlying factors affecting carry trades do not reflect a further return on investment. The opposite exists in EURUSD: the headlines can describe policy divergence better than this post. However, less covered is the future value of the carry trade as a product of central bank policy. Policy (carry) favors short EURUSD in addition to the bearish sentiment enveloping the pair. If this assumption stands, the pair will be subject to a somewhat wide, but defined, range. A short term reversal at 1.075 allows additional short entry opportunity at: 1.0780, 1.08, 1.0830. This is likely to be a very short term correction in order to define the trough of the range.
Short
by Burdman