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CAT

THE WEEK AHEAD -- "LESS THAN SEXY" FOR PREMIUM SELLINGWith the VIX finishing the week out at 16.66, next week is setting itself up to be a less than sexy week for premium selling, particularly in broader market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA. Moving to other sectors, the Brazil ETF, EWZ continues to be hot premium selling wise, with an implied volatility rank of 72. A couple of issues in the oil and gas space follow closely behind in the 70+ club (UNG (implied vol rank 72); RIG (71)); with several gold plays remaining in the 60s (GDXJ, GDX, GG). From there, volatility in individual underlyings and/or ETF's slips off somewhat dramatically, with only a few in the 50-60 range (X at 57; ORCL, 57 (one of this season's last earnings plays); CAT, 55 (earnings afterglo vol); and GLD, 52; with the remainder of most highly liquid, options playable issues slipping below 50 thereafter. Given the fact that I'm in a gold play, in EWZ, and have exposure to oil, I don't see myself putting on a heckuvalot of new trades next week. That's not all bad; these little volatility lulls make for a good time to do housekeeping on the various messes I created during the last volatility wave, clean up the earnings plays that didn't work out this past season, and/or dry out powder for the next volatility spike or whatever comes next ... . Naturally, should VIX spike to plus 25, I'll be right back in it with some new plays to take advantage of that. In the meantime, a cleaning of my trading "garage"/"basement"/"backyard" is overdue. It ain't sexy, but it's gotta be done some time.
CBOE:VIX
by NaughtyPines
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT THIS WEEK FOR EARNINGS -- AAPL, FB, BA, AMZNThis is a "kid in a candy store" week, with a good selection of earnings plays to choose from: AAPL: Tuesday, after market close BA: Wednesday, before market open FB: Wednesday, after market close BABA: Thursday, before market open CAT: Thursday, before market open AMZN: Thursday, after market close MSFT: Thursday, after market close I'll post setups on Tuesday once I have open market options pricing to look at. Pricing in off hours is notoriously suspect ... .
NASDAQ:AAPL
by NaughtyPines
Harmonic analysis - Caterpillar probably on its way to 55$I always find it amazing how the media starts talking about crisis when it almost over. Although $CAT is still far from the important buy zone I'll mentioned below, $CAT had to lose almost half of its value for this guy to start paying attention: www.cnbc.com (Jim Cramer realizing the $CAT is in trouble). In fact, the bearish opportunity on $CAT was about a year ago as $CAT created weekly triple top with bearish harmonics - on Sep 20th (2014!) I posted a bearish setup for $CAT with the bearish weekly Bat that completed near 112$ (see the setup posted a year ago - goo.gl) The final target zone of this bearish setup was the strong structure zone near 80$ - 30$ decline from its peak. When $CAT broke below 75$, the bottom of the weekly structure zone, it actually created a very strong bearish signal that suggests that $CAT will not create higher highs any time soon. 80$ Became a major resistance zone right now (weekly zone) that should prevent $CAT from any longer term rally attempt. Still, recommending to sell $CAT now, is irresponsible (Yes Mr. Cramer). $CAT reached a weekly support zone (64-65$) that can create short term pullback, perhaps towards the 80$ zone. Buying $CAT right now is too risky, and If' I'd planned to buy it here, I'd wait for at least some sort of daily reversal pattern or at least a weekly Pinbar pattern. The better opportunity will be if (and I believe ..when) $CAT will decline towards the 55$ zone. The 55$ is a strong weekly structure zone (support) and the completion zone of a bullish Butterfly pattern. 55$ should definitely be marked as potential Buy Zone for those who seek to buy $CAT stock (obviously you need to look for smaller time frames and seek for confirmation signals before jumping in front of this speeding bearish train). So 65$ and 55$ are two potential buy zones (with clear advantage to 55$). Both of these buy zones have the same target zone - 75-80$. 80$ will a major sell zone to monitor over the next weeks/months. If $CAT will rally (Year End Rally), 80$ will be the zone to monitor for possible selling opportunities....but, pay attention also to 88$. A weekly False Break to 88$ isn't something I'd rule out (not likely at this stage but put it in mind). One last thing.. If, the highly unlikely scenario that $CAT will break below 50$ will occur, there's also a bullish Bat completing near 30$ (32$). It really looks highly unlikely but.. hey.. no one thought that $CAT will lose almost half of its value in about a year If you like this analysis, please press the like and follow. You can visit and follow my blog for more analysis and trading ideas (for stocks and Forex) - goo.gl Subscribe to the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters - goo.gl
NYSE:CAT
by themarketzone
1
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: CAT IS ON RISK OF A MAJOR DOWNMOVECAT is on risk of both long term and short term downtrend. On long term basis, price is trading below lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 80), risking a downtrend on 5-year basis. Price has also broken below 10-year mean (at 77), so it has no major support there - and is free to go down. On short term basis, price ii trading below both 1st standard deviation on 1-year and quarterly basis - thus CAT is in a full fledged downtrend there What is interesting, quarterly mean is now very close to lower 1st standard deviation on 5-year basis, ad lower 1st standard deviations from quarterly and 1-year means are close to 10-year mean. Thus CAT is on risk of a major fall, until it breaks above quarterly mean, which will cancel all risks - both on short and long term basis!
NYSE:CATShort
by Killy_Mel
CAT $84.60: Completes a 3-month double bottomCAT broke through the 85.81 range high (February 18, 2015) to complete a 3-month double bottom at 78.81/78.25 before consolidating. The bullish indicators suggest there is scope for further upside. A swing low above the 83.09/81.54 support zone remains favored ahead of further strength through 87.50 (April 23, 2015 high) to open 89.28 (January 8, 21015 lower high). Above there would expose the 94.66 lower high (December 26, 2014) near the 200 day moving average. However, a break below the 81.54 area would prolong the consolidation and retest the 78.76 support (March 27, 2015 low). Outlook: Short term: bullish Long term: neutral
NYSE:CATLong
by novvoll12
Potential Bullish TriangleCAT has the potential to be unfolding in a very large bullish triangle. I am not holding the outlook with blood in my hand but it is a structure to keep an eye on as it might help us to be on the right side of the market. Furthermore, if indeed CAT is moving sideways for a while, we know that triangle precede the last move implying two things: we might have a choppy market before the final leg materializes and end the rally from 2009. In other words, for the long term it might mean a large bear market might be ahead of us. Probably in a couple of years. for the short term, have a look at the weekly chart published here.
NYSE:CAT
by yauger
An Interesting Proxy On Oil - 6 month UCO Call OptionsHello all, if you are a bottom picker here is an interesting options play in the energy market on nothing more then a natural 'dead-cat-bounce'. I can make a realistic argument for $20 on UCO. This would be nothing more then a normal 38.2 Fib tag, gap fill and a bfrn tag (markets just love to run to big fat round numbers). I would expect this dead-cat-bounce to occur into a generally friendly time for the energy market (heading into peak summer driving season demand). Additionally, If you believe the oil price was brought down to leverage Russia into peace talks by 'the west' then today's announcement of a cease fire in Ukraine should support the idea of a bottom here too. On top of these arguments, both petro currencies (like the Cdn $) and the oil stock index's are putting in bottoms as well. So that brings us to the trade. I am certainly not saying bet the farm on this but if you have some extra cash around this isn't a bad idea. For about $55 you can control 100 shares of UCO through to the middle of July, 2015 from $15.00 and higher. Should price move to my target area those options will have an intrinsic value of more than $5.00. Not a bad reward/risk! Indeed, if one were to pick a few up here I believe one could see $1.00 over the course of the next few months. if that should happen I would be inclined to sell half the position and get your original capital back in your hands and create a 'risk free' trade. So one could take a position here today and instantly put an order to sell half the position at double your purchase price. Should you get filled on the first sale then by all means get your order to sell at $5.00 working on the rest. glgt all Brian Beamish The Rational Investor www.therationalinvestor.co
AMEX:UCOLong
by CRInvestor
BTC/USD might be calling for a mayday soon. Expect panic sellingThe ABC correction from the 305 top has finished off exactly as predicted, see chart. After the bottom of C, the downtrend resumed and touched down on the (minor) 266 support. Of course a rebound was to be expected as prices don't move straight down or up. Now we are looking at a bearish wedge forming with a possible break down sometime tomorrow, or wednesday at the latest. The breakdown will take us down to the previous low of 255-258. At this moment it is becoming more and more dangerous to short this market, even though there is a possibility of a flash crash to the lower 200's. Either way, we are approaching bottom, meaning despair phase will kick in and shortly after this we might see some pretty amazing action towards the upside. Good luck to all traders!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by moker-X
6
Looking for the Dead Cat Bounce S&P500In my quest, I am looking for Mr Dead Cat the First, the very first short recovery or dead cat bounce which might be signal to us the confirmation of the continuation of a major Bear Market. As illustrated in the previous crashes, we see that almost uncanny similarities when using the Commodity Channel Index as an indicator to predict start and end of cycles. The 1st Crash happened in 2000 which was the Dotcom Bubble, and the bear market around lasted 760 days or just about 2years and 1 month. We then enjoyed a long Bull market from Oct 2002 till June 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) happened. There were hiccups along the way, but we are looking at major crashes resulting in more then a 30% market decline from the high. After the Dotcom Bubble Crash, we had enjoyed 1765 days or roughly around slight more than 4 years and 10months of good bull market runs before the Great Financial Crisis happened which saw the fall of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns in 2007. After the GFC, the bear market this time was relatively shorter and only lasted 487days or around slightly more than 1 year and 4 months. I guess people learnt to pick themselves up faster, that's the spirit of the human race. Currently, we have the good fortune of enjoying 2039 days of bull markets and nothing major. No Black Swans were born, no bad omen. However we do need to becareful, everything on the charts is showing that we are at a critical juncture now. The crash might not happen now but it's not far from now. So if you know your poker, you've had an amazing good run the past 5 years. And you're running out of Aces. It's time to cash out the big chips in the left pocket and play only with the dimes in your right pocket. History might not repeat itself but the Smart Money, the instituitions do leave footprints. When the smart Money knows there's something bad about to happened, they need to unwind their positions. They will need to make the market think the other way. They need to create the markets to sell so that they can buy. Similarly they need to create the markets to buy so that they can sell. These are all shown in the price patterns and to a certain extent trackable. At least I believe so, due to their sheer size, the 10 major banks control more than 60% of the total money invested in the markets and they certaintly can do that. So what can we retail traders do to track the Smart Money? We try find the bodies of the Dead Cats that the Smart Money kills and leaves behind to save their own asses
FX:SPX500
by topgun76
CAT classical "h-pattern"This construction mashinery company entered into strong uptrend since December 2013 after it broke up major consoldation resistance in the mid $80ish area. Now stock with the whole sector ($MTW, $TEX, $DD, $JOY) showing relative weaknes vs broad market. I use my 8 and 21 EMA to measure short term sentiment ant to make adjustments if i am positioned. It dropped its 8/21 EMA on 20th of May first time since mid March. And settling for a nice h-set-up which is classical pattern in technical analysis. Break down below $100.72 may attract more active, swing traders and I expect to see some follow through. Stop above previous swing high at $104.50 makes this trade attractive from R/R point of view. Target is $95 previous base support level, 200 EMA. All traders should manage this trade depend on their time-frame and strategy.
NYSE:CATShort
by andrew.berg