Get started

CAT

Bitcoin is confirming the next Bear MarketHello Everyone, Quick post for today. After a 20x gain over an entire year, I believe Bitcoin is confirming the next bear market cycle. Here are the technicals: 1. Rejection of the Hull Moving Average: The hull moving average has been a consistent determination in whether we remain in cycle or not. In both previous cycles, we see Bitcoin lose the hull moving average then on an attempt to regain, it rejects or fails and price continues downward. 2. Death cross: After rejecting the hull moving average, there is a death cross of the 20WMA and the 50WMA. This immediately happens after rejection and is another confirmation of a bear market. 3. Dead Cat bounce: There were 2 distinct dead cat bounces right after the fall from each cycle ATH. This is noticeable with the bearish price action: low volume higher price 4. Negative RSI: RSI seems to be going down as bitcoin continued to make highs. This is a bearish indication 5. Weakening MACD: MACD is weakening as bitcoin has another attempt at the 65k all time high. Although some of you may be discouraged, angry, or depressed the bear market is the best place to DCA and restock swing trade buys. My guess is the bottom is consistent with the 200WMA as it has been the bottom of each of the other two bear cycles. My plan moving forward is to DCA between the 100 and 200 WMA as well as look for swing trade plays during the bear market. As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
17
$BTC rally-base-drop reversalMy view on #bitcoin non-religiously considering the simple facts. Short-term we are going to be ranging between 200 DMA and 21 WMA, with strong rejection from 200 DMA sealing the faith of this dead-cat bounce. From S&D perspective #bitcoin is now completing the rally-base-drop reversal pattern perfectly. I will be saving all money I can to buy the 200 WMA. As said in my previous publications, this is where bulls with balls are being made and the ever running $BTC bull run resumes.
Short
by MarianusInconnuX
5
Certainty is dangerous - BTC downsideThis run up from 29k has been fast paced and well accepted by most. Most are certain downside isnt feasible at the current state as BTC is so bullish however given confluence at 54k mixed with a few other indications , i feel our current position is not going to be held for long ! Mapped out are two price ranges highlighting the drop size required to go to 27k . Notice how in the first dump we dropped 34k in 70 days and now we could be looking to dump 26k , sending us to 27k in 70 days. Currently the dxy looks weak and is showing signs it could return to 90.This is a potentially bullish sign for BTC however that also fits in with my idea here considering we are still 4k away from 54k. I do expect a pull back to 48k at some point within the next week if we make no attempt at 54k. 27k is still very unlikely however certainty is dangerous -Ozwald
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by ollie_oz
2
Komatsu; Digging a way into Mother Earths heart & ESG PortfoliosDISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's background, fundamentals, and assets through various lenses to determine what is a good potential investment. The function of this write up is to serve as an educational resource for investors looking to understand how to find good investments. So read and learn some things about a company that might just make mining a lot more eco- and human friendly. Thesis "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." -Neil "Stretch" Armstrong If progress is measured in leaps and bounds, then it is the slow crawl of the steady steps up that power human achievement. While this author would love to present a company that has developed innovative technology promising to revolutionize instantly, the closest thing available was a tried and true heavy machinery powerhouse rotating through decarbonization and bringing remote work and AI to the mining and construction site. On top of that, the company doesn't even meow. However, Komatsu has the foundation and ethos of a Japanese company of Olde with the clear and present desire to be the big dog of construction, mining, reforestation, and automating all of it. It is in this three pronged approach that Komatsu looks to amplify their growth; carbon neutrality, automation, and ESG. Carbon neutrality is a silly term to use when discussing mining and construction, but the fact is that the world is using dirty machines to do a dirty job, and extremely inefficiently. Komatsu looks to take heavy machinery into a cleaner world with a goal of complete carbon neutrality by 2050, and halving CO2 by 2030. The most obvious methods are in developing heavy machines with alternative energy inputs, a project that Komatsu has titled "power agnostic". A major presentation on this will be at MINExpo 2021 on September 13-15. Intriguingly, Komatsu aims to, and does, use their vast experience in mining sites, and their ability to utilize modern digital equipment and technological software to analyze the physical workspace and create the most efficient network for actual labour. A 10% reduction in time to and from dumping is a 10% increase in trips done. Using simple, yet intelligent, steps to cut CO2 use where ever possible is an easy way to stack CO2 reductions and help Mother Earth. Automation builds on to carbon neutrality, by developing an integrated network of machines, all meant to serve their function and move on, the mesh of the construction/mining site becomes infinitely efficient. Humans are still necessary for complex tasks, but mining isn't. Allowing machines to do the repetitive tasks mechanically, without standard deviations of human chaos, the machines will perform quicker and without risk to human life. Mining and construction are terribly dangerous, with 14 and 10 deaths per 100,000 workers per year, miles ahead of Finance's .4. Killing humans is bad for business for many reasons, and killing employees is often worse. Taking technological steps to reduce the need for physical labour at labour-sites provides a dramatic cut to the worse costs in business. Not to mention the wear and tear physical labour of the magnitude and scope as these professions, keeping people out of mines and out of construction sites is a net positive for society. Leading to Komatsu's self-establishment as the ESG boy-wonder of the mining world. Doing what could never be thought done, making mining just a little more earth friendly. Taking on major projects and developing high throughput heavy machinery for reforestation projects. Establishing a culture of employee-enrichment and appropriate risk management, HR policies, and management behaviours. Any guidelines or criteria the SEC chooses to go with to police the ESG world, Komatsu will easily crush. Komatsu's PE of 20 is extremely undervalued given the extreme favourability and leverage put on other ESG darlings, especially the EV car manufacturers. In some regard, Komatsu, an EV manufacturer of excavators, dump trucks, diggers, and more, deserves a second look by major institutions and prominent investment groups looking for a cheap ESG pick. Where Komatsu itself succeeds internally, they supersede externally with massive growth in Africa, the Middle East and Asia/Oceania (not China, RIP Evergrande). Komatsu recognized their need to rotate heavily into developing regions, and have found major success in 2021. While sales are still immature in these regions, their ~100% YOY gains suggest massive potential in strengthening Komatsu's global presence and long term profitability. Furthermore, leveraging their "power agnostic" platform to fill construction companies demands for decarbonization, Komatsu has significant long term profitability focused on key geographic regions while $CAT is focused on America's $3.5 trillion infrastructure deal. No thesis can be without negatives, and Komatsu's OTC status is definitely a strong one. On one hand, there are no options available for Komatsu, preventing the usual derivative nonsense on main exchanges. On the other, OTC is poorly policed (as bad as the SEC do, they still do a lot but not there). To this end, this could be a very temporary issue that turns into a major positive as Japan is set to launch the Japanese stock exchange as a blockchain exchange, leading to a massive improvement in clearing, preventing basically every single problem that makes the stock market so easy to manipulate. To this end, this author strongly believes Japanese equities see a massive surge in the future as the inefficiencies of the current stock market infrastructure are removed and price discovery becomes unimpeded. And so the greatest issue with Komatsu falls to Japan's economy, and their ability to handle a major global financial crisis such as the one brewing. Previous articles illustrate this author's view on this matter, but nothing can change the brazen evidence that China's major financial groups are failing. Evergrande will collapse, whether into debtor's hands, or Xi Dada's welcoming arms, and with it, so will China's construction boom, and possibly the major construction projects across Asia and the Middle East that China has been funding through their bank in their attempt to financially consume smaller nations the same way the big banks did. Komatsu's ability to thrive and grow relies on the world growing, and mining. While a "global financial meltdown" could hurt any company, there is little to assume that Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan collapsing would prevent Latin America, Africa and Asia to continue building and developing. In fact, any drastic rebalance in capitalist goals and foundations are sure to be towards an ESG compliance, especially with the ECB parroting the demand for business to fight climate change. While the world might want to stop coal mining immediately, it can't, and powering development will continue to use this. However, the resources need to make the future, and an ESG compliant future, relies on mining and construction. Combined with Komatsu's push into reforestation machinery, likely to be useful in future terraforming capacities, there is significant upside to current financial system risks. Investor Relations Material Analysis/Breakdown + Fundamentals Komatsu is a big company with their stuff in order. Thus, there are a lot of documents to cover, little nuggets to digest and data to breakdown. This analyst has a favourable view of the company's outlook, and thus data is looked at in a favourable scope. It is absolutely imperative to understand that no matter how many lenses any investor uses, there will always be an inherent bias towards an explanation of a datum. This section is a breakdown of key media, investor relations documents and interviews. There is a lot of overlapping information in these, but in an attempt to illustrate the reasoning behind the conclusion, and providing a thorough analysis of key documents. The Komatsu Report www.komatsu.jp Part of analyzing is calling out bad data. Page 4 and 5 are graphs showing two different things; Page 4 is the demand in units from 1950 to 2000, showing a capped demand in units starting in 1988, while Page 5 is 2001 to 2019 net sales in Billions of Yen. If demand in units had increased from 2001 to 2020, it would have been one graph, which means they aren't getting an increase in demand, year over year, but that inflation is the key to their increased sales. Truth be told, in a time of hyperinflation, that business model works out well enough, after all, a company enabling growth, whose growth depends on global growth, in a time of unparalleled economic growth, is in a great spot. Plus, the real money comes from service contracts and technical training/repairs. As the total number of existing units increases, and the average age of those units increases, the profits will continue to build. This being illustrated on page 9. Page 8 shows 4 case examples of Komatsu's innovation. The coolest one being the electric mini-excavators, especially the part where it comments on the reduction of noise pollution. Electric construction machinery will be quieter as the internal combustion engines on these beasts are so loud, and that is amazing to think about as this analyst has lived in an active construction zone. Page 10 shows they relied on an acquisition to get a big chunk of their mine training portfolio, suggesting Komatsu knows what it is doing with those Investment expenses on their books. Page 19 has an interesting tidbit on issuing green bonds. There isn't much to note here, actively growing and working companies issue debt all the time, but they also constantly pay off debt, this is a natural cycle. The green bonds mean Komatsu is going to position itself as the ESG-friendly construction/mining company. With a goal by 2050 to be carbon neutral, and by 2030 to halve 2010's CO2 production, Komatsu is making serious strides in this direction. This puts Komatsu in a great position for future funds and institutions to make space in their portfolios, as well as opens up Japan buying the bonds, and giving the company a huge investment. As of this time of writing, BOJ's Kataoka wants the government to increase bond purchases to ramp up the economy. Komatsu is a Japanese corporation, with shareholder mechanics insuring that 51% of equity in the company is Japanese. This could be a match made in heaven as Komatsu looks to rotate into carbon neutrality and the "eco-friendly" mining/construction phase. Page 26 has a video-gamey picture of what the digital Smart mining space could look like, as well as serving as a great example of the usefulness and potential of the technology at this level and on. Page 27 illustrates the safety issues in construction and mining, turning as much of that into remote/AI is going to be key, in congruence with national social buffering legislation to the tune of a Universal Basic Income to protect those whose jobs are no longer needed, for better or worse. Page 28 has the biggest potential impact in the future, especially as the middle east and Africa build up their reforestation projects, and as this technology develops in an efficiency and productivity manner, meaning increased reforestation, Komatsu stands at the head of being the primary provider in a field with few others (CAT doesn't have this stuff, the same way Komatsu doesn't have some CAT stuff). Page 32 through 53 illustrates the ESG vision and is a thorough report on why Komatsu belongs in an ESG heavy portfolio. Thing is, it's good and they're right. They are taking the steps, acknowledging the picture, and filling in every box way before the SEC even thinks to check. This is a great example for other companies in filling out their own. But most importantly, its actually ESG. It is clear that Komatsu has been taking massive steps in giving themselves the right image, if only for narcissism then still better than 99% of companies. www.komatsu.jp Secondary presentation with much the same as the longer, but worth the skim to shore up questions or looking for a summary after a long scroll. Financial Documents 41% YOY increase in net sales with a 151% YOY increase in EPS. Projections for 2022 show Komatsu believes in its future, with a 327% increase in EPS by March 31, 2022. A super interesting point on Komatsu's Financial reports is this share treasury they have. I have often thought about this concept of a company playing market maker to itself, being able to profit off of their own short squeezes and taking advantage of maleficent attempts to short their stock, as well as creating a pool for immediate liquidity should the need arise; Komatsu has just under 28 million of its own shares, having bought over a hundred thousand of their own over the last quarter as well. While some investors might be wary of this, I don't see any need for Komatsu to raise capital from the stock market, and being a dividend stock, there are considerably great reasons to pull as many shares off the market and keep them for yourself as possible. Komatsu's management performance report makes it clear that a significant part of Komatsu doing well is the Japanese Yuen depreciation (deflation for Japan) has given Komatsu strength in comparison to Japan's economy. This author has little ability in understanding how this macroeconomic event will impact Komatsu, as it is an international company based on growth and development in a critical field no matter the underlying economic condition of the country; gut feeling is Komatsu should remain unscathed by Japanese economic events at large due to the growth in sectors like India and Brazil (and as the world continues to develop no matter how much gold or dollars are worth). In truth, the only thing to do is to look at the global distribution of sales and compare year on year in the hopes of identifying the growing market. Page 7 is the table for just that. Basic rundown, North America is the biggest market, and grew 34% yoy, but it isn't by much. Latin America grew the same percent, and with these countries in a much more underdeveloped spaces as is, there is plenty more room to grow no matter a global downturn. Just because the economy is bad doesn't mean that 2nd and 3rd world countries aren't putting in the hours building and mining. Europe & CIS were miniscule parts and grew poorly, which is not a terribly large surprise. The biggest area of growth this author would truly like to see would be in Africa, Asia + Middle East. And it did. 120% yoy for Asia, 168% Middle East, 86% Africa. The real values are low, coming in at ~30% of total sales, but the most important component is creating a base and a name. As development continues in these regions, the need for construction and mining equipment will grow. Furthermore, they have about 35 billion dollars of assets and 8 billion in debt. That leaves Komatsu at $27 billion in worth, with a market capitalization of $22.9 billion. With a PE ratio of 20 and PS (price to sales) ratio of 1, there looks like nothing but upside. Net increase of 930 million dollars on the books for the quarter (conversions from Yuen to USD are done at 1:.15). Page 15 showing Komatsu paying more debt than borrowing, of course the cycle of debt is obnoxious to see but that is how business works and is a completely normal sight. There is no way to put it, but China is going to hurt. It is going to hurt potential growth, cutting the forecast from a super big positive % to a smaller positive %. Evergrande is going under in one form or another, and China is going to have to take a stranglehold of their economy, likely pulling back from Capitalism for another batch of years similar to their back and forth in the 2000s with the previous global financial crises. Invariably, this is going to less Komatsu construction machines going to China, and potentially decrease the already decreased sales into China. The most important thing to look out for is how this will also affect the rest of Oceania/Asia where China's bank has inserted itself and funded construction projects in developing countries. If this financial support collapses, and many construction projects get abandoned or cut in size, Komatsu could find that big growth in these sectors getting cut. Still, India, Brazil and Africa could carry a big chunk of the business. Another element that tickles this author's noggin is the CAT infrastructure deal. While Komatsu will certainly reap something from the $3.5 trillion infrastructure deal, most likely from a secondary relationship as the bill will focus on American companies, CAT will get the biggest reward. However, CAT has a limited ability to produce, and perusing their technology selection, seem to be at the remote control business segment as well, but not past, meaning if Komatsu has the goods at MINExpo, it could force a fun play on Komatsu taking over the global segment as CAT funnels its supply line into America alone, and Komatsu could keep that global share as its technology dominates the field. www.komatsu.jp www.komatsu.jp Backup presentation: www.komatsu.jp Geographic Sales: www.komatsu.jp Perhaps the Piece de resistance of Evergrande's and China's upcoming issues, this document beautifully shows Komatsu's growth has been amazing in 2021, but China is drying up, preparing for Evergrande's collapse and the potential halt in major building projects across the country. Interview covering Electric Excavators and "Power Agnostic" Dump trucks im-mining.com Great article covering 2 major business plans. First, Komatsu looks set in going after electric excavators, with a lithium ion battery version coming into mass production in 2022. Second, a clean definition of what Komatsu is developing and what they mean by "power agnostic": Regarding mining dump trucks, we will proceed with the development of “power agnostic” dump trucks that can operate with a variety of power sources – such as engines, batteries, trolley systems and hydrogen fuel cells – by 2030. What this means as far as if Komatsu is just using a burner line akin to something Lordstown would say, or if this means Komatsu has plans for all of these. The interview with the CEO shows a model of one of their massive dump trucks with a battery and hook-ups for a trolley-line, but investors should know better than to fall for that. The only thing giving credibility to Komatsu's claim is their proof of work in the Lead-acid battery mini-excavators, and the fact that Japanese CEOs who lie tend to wind up fleeing the country in boxes with breathing holes. Earthbrain: Komatsu + Sony + NTT DOCOMO Komatsu gets 54.5% of the new company, offers their data, platform and heavy lifting (pun intended), while NTT DOCOMO will handle the AI and computer systems, SONY does the sensing equipment. A basic search for NTT Docomo yields nothing impressive; Japan's major mobile network operator, with a few patents that don't suggest a foundation in AI or robotics, the space is relatively mature enough that scooping up the right team isn't impossible, and Japanese academic labs are ripe with cheap talent and market ready products that it is completely reasonable to expect Komatsu to follow through. The only thing making this deal look bad is Nomura's role as the salesforce, mostly because Nomura gets very little right. This definitely won't start as fully automating the field, but it does look like Komatsu et al are pushing towards that with the obvious statement of AI intent on NTT Docomo, but the general idea stands to be fleshed out as Sony fulfills their part and gives the tools necessary to make it happen. gateway.smartconstruction.com www.earthbrain.com www.constructionequipment.com www.komatsu.eu Bull Theory Keeping this brief as the entirety of this analysis feels like bull theory; Komatsu has more upside than downside, with the obvious twists and turns of the nascent market. This author is under the pretense that money does not disappear, but is stolen, and thus any market downturn is due to a large amount of money being taken out of it, and put somewhere else. In turn, the Global leaders understand that the only way to fix a problem on fiscal policy, is to make it very small, hence the push for hyperinflation right now by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, PCOB, etc, etc, etc. They fully see the inflation rates are well past their mark and far greater than transitory, but they also see the need to make the current problems not as big so as to manage them. This leads to a conclusion that the world governments will work out a plan so as to accelerate the hyperinflation, but to put a lot of these assets in developing the 2nd and 3rd world countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America. By offering technology and assistance, the hegemony remains in place and the G7 can avoid collapse, while actually doing a good thing. This has happened before, the 2008 financial collapse was absolutely central to a huge amount of international debt forgiveness and further developments in developing countries. Back to Komatsu; this author is under the assumption that any global financial slow down would negatively affect Komatsu's growth, but not to a negative number. Furthermore, Komatsu has a strong history of remaining unaffected by the greater global financial ups and downs, mimicking the viewpoint that construction and mining are inflation, deflation, and collapse proof. As Komatsu fleshes out its autonomous fleet running on carbon neutral energy sources, they will secure their position as the global leader in construction and mining equipment, breaking down CAT's walls. MINExpo is unlikely to be as significant a catalyst as one would expect with the unveiling of drastic technological upgrades, but a near-term tick up followed by some noise from the underlying system, should all lead to massive gains upward, especially as investors look for sympathy plays from the infrastructure bill with some major growth possibilities. Bear Theory Global Financial Collapse to end them all hits, economies crumble, armies can't get paid leading to all out anarchy and militaristic triads and elephants in the Alps, everything just goes to shit. Or, things just slowdown hardcore, governments go on austere measures and try to play the rules of their own game and dig out of the hole slowly, leading to a global recession similar to Japan's past few decades. The entire equities market sinks as investors leave for cryptocurrencies, bonds, gold, commodities or crowdfunded VC, etc., etc., etc. Because that is what it would take for Komatsu to not have an amazing run. CAT has no ability to suffocate them out, and supply chain alone keeps start-ups out of the game. If there is a downturn in Komatsu's stock price or sales, it would be entirely out of it's own hands, meaning they won't mess this up. Management has shown they can rotate well into whatever happens, and the internal departments understand the markets they need to continue to push in to secure their future. While many old school investors think ESG is bullshit, the fact is that the world government's do not, and with continued ecological devastation caused by pollution and the destruction of Earth's atmosphere: ESG is here to stay and will only get bigger. And thus the argument is skewed towards success, the inherent bias shown, and the reader left with a need to research and verify for themselves. Disclaimer Thank you for your time, I truly value it and hope that this brings value to it. This analysis is not to serve as primary financial advice, rhyme or reason. This work is to serve as an editorialized overview of the parts and pieces of the investment, as well as the different ways this author analyzes it. As of the date of publication, 9/2/2021, this author has no investment in Komatsu $KMTUY in any form. As the primary purpose of this article is to be informative of the company, the stock market, and relevant market mechanics, please feel free to ask any questions. Thank you.
Editors' picks
OTC:KMTUYLong
by DoctorFaustus
9
Roku: Dead Cat Bounce? Roku bounced really well at the strong support zone and also changed the trend to bullish "U" on the daily and 4HR chart.Previous Resistance that turned into support $351 is crucial indicator of reversal. Making daily higher highs and higher lows gave it a confidence bounce upside. If it can hold at EMA 20 with volume, it can easily hit back to $360. Bullish trend on RSI as well. When it breaks, there will be a big opportunity. Selling pressure is slowing down and a trend change with the inverse hammer followed by a green candle. If it breaks the support of $340, its a dead cat bounce.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by yflaw1018
2
NIO: What it needs to fly again?Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at NIO today! Since it reported earnings, NIO has been in a bearish momentum, and it seems nothing will reverse it. The last support was at $ 38.66, and NIO lost it, but what does this means? We are still far from May’s bottom at $ 30, and since it dropped that sharply, it has good chances of bouncing back up, but so far, we have no bullish structure in the 1h chart. On the bright side, we are near the support level, and it seems NIO didn’t lost it completely, as we see early signs of reaction. Let’s see the daily chart for more clues: We have a bullish candlestick pattern today, which is a start for a possible reversal, and since we are near the previous support level, now is the best time for NIO react. If we close above the $ 38.66 again, it will be a false breakout from the support level, and this will be very frustrating for the bears, as they will be stopped out. Since we hit the support, the volume increased, and if we see a reaction, the 21 ema will be the target for us. Then we’ll see if it’ll be a Dead Cat Bounce or the beginning of a true reversal. But I agree that today’s reaction is not the best so far, and we must wait for more information. The situation is very delicate, and how NIO will react in this support will dictate the next big movement. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Have a good day.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
Rising wedge acting as supportThe previous trend line resistance for the wedge is now acting as support as go into the mid and upper 40's. This is normal for a s/r to flip however what I find weird is the candle we saw earlier dipping inside the wedge and bounces off the support. Previously I had stated that the 10-11th of august is a deciding day for BTC as we are likely to test the 200dma and it is the meeting point of the wedge.My fear is that the candle earlier exposes weakness in the support and that if tested again we may fall into the wedge where we remain before falling down. This ties into my previous idea about supply takeout and how if we don't reclaim this area we bounce down. The wedge deadline gives us time and actually supports us up to this area while still providing an area for us to fall. Also previously stated that if 45 is not claimed then we may see a down fall quickly diving into the many fvg we have left on this quick assent. While I remain neutral I'm still very open and more opposed to any idea that 45k will be an easy absorption
Short
by ollie_oz
4
ASX:CATHere we have the lifetime chart for ASX:CAT. - Starting with a price of $0.63 and reaching an ATH of $4.26 in only 1 year. - It then went on a 3 year downtrend back to its original $0.63. - After that we see it recover to $2.13 in 1 year. - COVID-19 pandemic brings price all the way down to $0.49, which is its new ATL. - Since then price has recovered nicely, and if it continues to do so I will be looking to enter a trade. I have marked what I would like to happen for me to enter, and the relevant buy zone. I will only be putting a small sum on this trade in the hopes that price breaks the $2.47 resistance line and holds price. Only then will I be looking at this trade more seriously. I can then average down my purchase price with small sum previously purchased. DYOR I hope this helps someone
ASX:CATLong
by jakebabula
CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top DropNYSE:CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top Drop This short biased thesis is based on the following factors: A double top that was recently formed and confirmed A Bearish Three Black Crows candle stick pattern followed the second top (of the double top) A large series of dark pool prints totaling around $882M came in on June 25th, all around the $216.31 price level. Although we do not know the nature of this trade, we are currently trading under this level and continued downside price action will further increased the probability that this trade was a sell. Possible Threats: The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from. Short term tactical sentiment for XLI is starting to recover from a bearish downtrend and may show upward momentum from here that could lift CAT up enough to hit the Stop Loss. That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred. The June 29 Bar is being used to define the following trade parameters: Short Entry: $214.58 Stop Loss: $218.71 Possible Targets: $207 - First meaningful fib level $200.17 - A previous trend high that was used as a fib definition point $197 - Based on a fib level that has show to have acted as reasonable resistance and support $190 - Based on the rounding to a whole number on the closest fib level Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice. NYSE:CAT Daily Chart NYSE:CAT Weekly Chart
NYSE:CATShort
by Rhythmic
1
An Explanation of the Symmetrical Triangles and Price TargetsGME is currently in a pattern known as a symmetrical triangle in which, following a move (up or down), there is a battle between bears and bulls to establish dominance on the market. We'll focus on a symmetrical triangle that starts with a move up like GME , but the same applies to a move down, just vice versa. This is visualized on a chart as a move up followed by a series of lower highs and higher lows which form two converging trend lines that form a triangle shape. As far as market psychology goes, this represents a few things. You should know, three parties are usually considered in market psychology analysis of individual securities, but four parties are considered when there is an influx of people who were not previously involved in that market. I think in GME 's case we can say that there are four parties. Those parties can be identified as bulls, bears, undecided, and uninterested. The uninterested party becomes interested, and therefore accounted for in analysis, when there is a lot of attention surrounding a security. The move starts with a lot of volume (which is relative, but mostly can be based on the average volume over a long period) as a result of a shift or reversal in sentiment and newfound attention on that security. The bullish party increases their position as their bullish thesis is proven correct. The bearish party closes their positions (and may even reverse their position to bullish) once their bearish thesis has been proven wrong. The undecided party becomes decidedly bullish. And finally, the uninterested party becomes interested and bullish. Following the move up, buyers and sellers are going back and forth increasing and decreasing their entry and exit points which creates a series of peaks and troughs. At the first peak, where the triangle starts, there has been bullish sentiment because bears realized they were wrong and the stock is getting attention because of the price increase, so all parties have turned bullish. GME is a tricky case because there probably would have been continued bullish sentiment if there wasn't interference with the market, but even though the price action has been interfered with, the chart still paints a picture of market psychology for us - whether it's unprecedented or not. At some point, the stock will hit the bulls price target and they will start selling their shares for profit (and possibly reversing their position to bearish, but this is less likely in a market that's trending up). At this point, bears take over and start shorting again, bulls become dormant until they see another price they like, undecided parties may stay undecided or move with the trend, and uninterested parties are again no longer interested or are also moving with the trend. This process continues in a series of a total of 5 peaks and troughs (combined) to form a wave (this ties into Elliot Wave principles, but I'm not well versed in that yet). Each peak will be lower and each trough will be higher as buyers and sellers compete for dominance. In other words, moves up should have decidedly more volume than moves down in a symmetrical triangle, because all parties have turned bullish where the opposite is not true for moves down. The overall volume from the beginning to the end of the triangle should also decrease. Symmetrical triangles are intermediate patterns which means they typically last 1 to 3 months. In the event that the patterns continues past 3 months, if the volume profile is still indicative of a continuation, the breakout will likely be more significant. During this 1-3 month period, the breakout generally occurs between 2/3 and 3/4 of the overall length of the triangle starting from its beginning (the base) to the point where the trend lines converge (the apex). If there is no breakout by the time that 3/4 of the triangle has passed, the continuation pattern weakens and it becomes more likely that the sideways trading will continue. If there is a break out, it's generally on higher volume than the past 10 days and in what's known as a gap up, or an opening price one day that is much higher than the previous days closing price. There are a few types of gap ups, but we'll focus on breakaway gaps because that's what we're dealing with in this instance. A breakaway gap typically occurs when breaking through or out of a prominent support, resistance, or pattern. The breakaway gap indicates the start of a strong trending move, is typically a large gap, and the price tends to follow through in the gap direction over the next few weeks. In order to confirm a gap up, you want to see increased volume and you absolutely do not want to see that gap filled in the following days. We just had a gap up to break out of the symmetrical triangle in GME and we partially filled it, but have not filled it all the way. If the gap is filled it usually indicates prices will go lower. Now that we've broken out of the triangle, the upper resistance line will likely become a prominent support line. So if the breakaway gap is filled we can expect a bounce somewhere around $195. If it's not filled, we can expect to continue moving higher to the price targets set by the symmetrical triangle. There are a few way to set price targets, but two methods are most common. The first is to measure the height of the base of the triangle. Use that same height going up from the breakout point to determine a price target to be met by the apex of the triangle. The second method is to draw a line parallel to the triangle's support line. Your price target will be where that line ends at the apex of the triangle. The end of the symmetrical triangle is on 11 June and my two price targets are $588.87 and $634.24. I'll post the chart now so you can see that this is a nearly perfect symmetrical triangle continuation pattern that follows every single one of those parameters that I just explained. This is a very high accuracy pattern.
NYSE:GMELong
by EricIker
Another "buy the dip" trading idea! 😁Another “buy the dip” trade, just like our idea on DE. The principle is exactly the same, but with a few more details. We have a rounded bottom, and the RSI is extremely divergent, indicating a possible rally. In the 4h chart, the RSI is at 23, and we did break the BB today, but we closed inside it in the end. Like this wasn’t enough, we are above a support at 216 area. A rally could make it hit the 231, but CAT must do the movement quickly, or it’ll lose momentum. It must not lose the 216 again, or it might keep dropping. If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉. See you soon, Melissa.
NYSE:CAT
by UnknownUnicorn21312077
8
USDCNY to Fall Towards the Lower End of the Accumulation The USDCNY continues to find itself in a solid downtrend. This is illustrated by the ADX indicator, which has been threading above the 25-point benchmark since late September 2020. The ADX reached a peak around the time the price action fell to the upper boundary of the last Accumulation range at 6.4700. Afterwards, the price went on to establish a false bullish rebound. The latter materialised in a Dead Cat Bounce pattern, which typically represents a temporary break in the development of a broader downtrend. The pattern failed to strengthen above the 20-day MA (in red), which is why the USDCNY was then able to break down within the Accumulation range. That is why the strength of the underlying Markdown - an essential component of the Wyckoff Cycle - appears to be waning down, as underpinned by the ADX indicator after February 2021. This represents an early signal that the USDCNY is once again getting ready to consolidate in a new range. Before this can happen, however, the price action looks poised to fall to the Accumulation range's lower boundary at 6.2650 once again.
Short
by Trendsharks
Industrials needs a breatherXLI, the Sultan, was the ultimate DOW mover. He ruled over everyone including hedge fund managers. Tuesdays action to the upside was great but gave it up at the end of the day. Wed and Thursday continued to the downside. On Friday, the Sultan tapped the 8 day EMA and came back up but closed below previous day high. The issue with XLI is the channels are small. If this low channel is to break, look out below cause I'm thinking of a 3 point move down to 102 as support. Based on HON, FDX, and UPS, Sultan's rule might be done for this coming two weeks.
AMEX:XLIShort
by CTRLZEEE
The 'Dead Cat Bounce' ScenarioPrice has been unable to rise clearly over the 40k level. Good news is that it almost reached 40,500 today before finding resistance to drop below support at 38,500 At this stage it is important to see Higher Lows! This means that if the price drops below the 36,000 level we run the danger of seeing a further drop / in this case the rise from 30k to 40k levels will simply be classified as one (Dead-Cat-Bounce) and we could be prepared to see a further drop to 30k. Am I bearish now? No, I am still bullish but I also need to do what the chart commands. Right now we must be careful, if 36,000 is breached under we will be worried/turning into sell positions. For the time being I have reduced my sell positions and opened some hedge positions (25% sell 75% buy). Hope it helps, the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
14
BTC Turns bearish on Daily - ShortBitcoin has dropped below the 20week and 200day moving averages for the first time since April 47th, 2020. With a triple bearish divergence, a break of the pitch fork trend and floating below the 20wk MA..I cannot help, but read this as bearish in the short term until we secure a weekly close back above the 20wk MA. Not sure how much lower we could go, there is no telling. How much longer until we reverse, unsure. Is this the end of the bull run? I don't want to believe so, but you cannot deny the chart. There is aways time to return when the whales give us a bullish sign that things are reversing, but I don't see on the chart right now. I remain bullish in the LONG. This is not financial advice, It is only my opinion.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MFGroon