Get started

Catalyst

HCMC a lot of hype - how do we play this move - deep analysisSo we are looking at HCMC on a 1H chart - a short time frame because we must see all the clues in the chart so a short time frame is in order. A couple of lines on the catalyst news just to make sure you are up to date: The company deals with health products mostly organic foods and has several vape shops in the USA. They filled a lawsuit against the giant Philip Morris for patent infringement (‘the 170 patent’) on what they refer to as ‘Electronic Pipe’ this is taken from the SEC report (file number 001-36469) : “An electronic pipe, comprising: a battery, an electronic module, a combustible material reservoir, and a heating element fixed in the combustible material reservoir. combustible material loaded into the combustible material reservoir. wherein the pipe is structured to transmit an electric current from the battery to the heating element, the heating element initiating a combustion reaction in the combustible material reservoir.” Ok Let’s try to break it down: 1. - First thing we saw is a healthy trending asset. From 0.000096 till 0.001475- moving in a correction motive pattern which is what we want to see on a stock. -RSI not overbought and except for rare peaks overall looks good. - Notice ADX is NOT trending in that part and that means gradual moves up. - Notice the massive wick on catalyst news that gave us a clear signal that the hype is coming (red square – red star – super important to spot these clues in the chart early!) 2. - Then it exploded upwards – this is HYPE and a lot of it – stock because ‘meme’ trading and was trending on social media and every kid with a TikTok and a trading account started talking about it like we discovered Microsoft in the 90’s – which is obviously not the case . The stock took off from 0.0016 to 0.0064 in 3 trading days – but what goes up must come down. - RSI peaking to overbought and pullback is in order soon - ADX losing trending momentum and crossing down from the 60 level of ADX – pullback coming- 3. - Smart money started exiting and left a lot of new retail traders holding the bag. If you ask me we had a lot of money pulling out from the 8th of Feb and started dollar cost averaging out of the trade gradually. - Notice we have 2 Fib retracements on the chart : - One from the beginning of trend (26 of Jan) - Ne from the beginning of impulse move (8 of Feb) - If we look at the 50 levels of both we will see most pullbacks was already done – but I emphasize the word – MOST – because I think we can get in at a cheaper price on the stock around 0.0032 – that doesn’t mean the pullback will go directly to that level but as we always remind our union traders – patience is in order! so we can see accumulation with a bit of a rise but buying power is getting weaker and who knows if we are also seeing inside buys -which can be reasonable. 4. So what’s next? FDGT will wait on a pullback and for the hype to slightly calm down because we are looking at a lot of new traders in the stock at the moment – which means they can be easily shaken off by drops of price – we will wait to see if we can get the asset on the lows of 0.0032. 5. Given the catalyst of the trial I would suggest easing into the trade with small orders and buying dips till we see the interest peaking again to the higher levels and to start dumping out shares above the 0.007 price. that doesn’t mean our price target is 0.007 but our first stop on taking profits and we need to monitor volumes to see if the hype is getting bigger or smaller to know when is our next stage. If you want me to cover the next stage just comment here and we will follow up if there is demand. Let's just quickly cover volumes – so we understand what to look for as a comparison in the upcoming moves : Avg volume 3 months: 6B Last month volume : 13.5B (average) Last week: 20B ( mostly sell volume) Target volume for future moves: above 10B but must be a buying volume! currently not the case. 3 things worth noting here as the pessimistic view : 1. PM has probably the best lawyers in the world! 2. this trial can go on for years if PM will not offer a settlement! 3. the cost of running a trial for so long will cost Healthier Choices (HCMC) a LOT of money in a court battle! just keep those points in mind. Trade safe and be safe – the traders union is here for you!
OTC:HCMC
by FDGT_academy
14
$MRK ELLIOTWAVESMy current waves on $MRK would love some feedback, this catalyst and original chart was brought up originally by @tomikazi It broke out of the downtrend channel and now is in wave 1. Has a catalyst on Wednesday 1/20/21 PDUFA VII Decision for MRK's Vericiguat: Merck Seeks Approval For Heart Failure Drug Company: Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) Type of Application: NDA Candidate: vericiguat Indication: heart failure Positive ER expected : Merck & Co., Inc.'s earnings, with the lowest EPS estimate coming in at $1.32 and the highest estimate coming in at $1.38. Merck & Co., Inc. reported earnings of $1.16 per share during the same quarter last year, which indicates a positive year over year growth rate of 16.4%. The firm is scheduled to issue its next quarterly earnings report before the market opens on Thursday, February 4th. -Marketbeat
NYSE:MRKLong
by SigCharts
Nova Leap Health Corp (NLH)Executive Summary Nova Leap Health is a consolidator of an extremely fragmented space of home care and home health care agencies. Nova Leap buys them at ~5x EBITDA and subsequently improves EBITDA margin. As the company scales its operations, the operating leverage would lead to margin expansion. The stock price has an upside of ~100% in 1 year. Opportunity 1) Small Cap (50m) 2) Sell side has not discovered it yet 3) Flying under the radar Nova presently has a $2.1m cash pile and a long term debt of $2.7m, debt was $5.3M in August with a $2.7M cash pile Business Overview NLH is home care and home health care services company operating in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nova Scotia. NLH all entered into all these markets (except for Ohio) through M&A transactions. Home care covers such activities as: Dementia care Personal grooming like bathing or getting dressed Moving around: getting in and out of the bed/shower Medication reminders Errands like grocery shopping and picking up prescriptions Light housekeeping Meal preparation Home healthcare covers such activities as: Skilled nursing At-home physical therapy Pain Management Caring for wounds Prescription management Customer Value Proposition Home care and home healthcare enables senior citizens to stay in their homes even after they cannot live completely on their own. Homecare crates a buffer from when a senior citizen needs to move to a nursing facility COVID-19 Tailwind Senior citizens living at nursing facilities suffered greatly from COVID-19. There were instances where a big part of a nursing home’s population got infected by COVID-19. Second, many senior citizens got locked down at nursing facilities and were not able to see family members for very extended periods of time for safety reasons. Needless to say, that was a real hardship. Thus, I expect that both senior citizens and their families (e.g., children) would be trying to avoid or at least delay moving to a nursing facility as long as possible which would provide strong tailwinds for home care industry and Nova Leap. M&A Strategy 1. M&A Criteria Nova Leap has the following acquisition criteria: 1) U.S. and Canada geographic focus 2) Positive EBITDA with strong reputation/brand 3) Normally 5+ year history 4) Opportunities for operational synergies 5) $1M-$15M of Revenues Nova Leap is going after targets that are too small for private equity players and as a result faces limited competition. The space is very fragmented, and Nova Leap has many potential acquisition targets in front of it. M&A Playbook and Integration Nova Leap buys home care businesses that are primarily private pay. After that Nova Leap makes incremental changes at the acquired operations. First, Nova Leap implements price increases where it is appropriate. Second, Nova Leap reducea overtime because overtime destroys gross profit margin. Third, Nova Leap consolidates the back-office functions such as accounting. For example, instead of an accountant looking after one agency, such account working at Nova Leap HQ would be looking after 3 or 4 home care agencies. Fourth, better scheduling using scheduling software. Operating Philosophy CEO Chris Dobbin runs Nova Leap in a very decentralized fashion. Most locations’ leaders have lots of autonomy. HQ are responsible for setting up standards and back office / accounting. Chris Dobbin spends his time heavily on M&A and overseeing the agencies’ leaders. Unit Economics The key operating drivers are the number of client service hours and revenue per hour. Revenue per hour has been quite stable and is ~$25. Cost per hour has also been stable: ~$16.50 - $17.00. Thus, the profit per hour is ~$8.50 to $9. Four-Wall Economics and Four-Wall EBITDA “Four-wall EBITDA” is of course a misnomer because there are no tangible walls to speak of, but the concept still applies. I want to analyze profitability of field operations first and then overlay HQ expenses on top of that. The key issue that Nova Leap is facing today is its small size of field operations vs. HQ. However, with a few more acquisitions and de minimis growth in HQ expenses (see more on this below), the operating leverage would kick in and lead to a disproportionate increase in EBITDA. In 2019 segment EBITDA margin (e.g., before HQ costs) was 11.88%. However, in 1Q 2020 and 2Q 2020 it was 10.91% and 10.39% respectively due to the COVID-19 impact. Revenue run-rate (ex-COVID-19) is ~$5M per quarter or ~$20M per year. With ~12% segment EBITDA margin, NLH should be able to generate ~~$2.4M of segment EBITDA. With the EV of ~$19M, the EV/Segment EBITDA is ~7.85x. HQ Operations The HQ team based in Halifax is small and includes CEO, CFO, controller, and business development person. This is purely corporate function. The HQ also has 5 accountants. However, they work with field agencies. Nova Leap wants to do 4 to 6 M&A transactions a year (there was zero during COVID-19 pandemic so 2020 number would probably be lower than this target). Doing these M&A transactions will not require hiring any more HQ personnel. However, Nova Leap would probably need to hire an accountant for every 3-4 acquisitions (maybe 5). HQ expenses are ~$280K - $300K per quarter when there are no M&A transactions. Let’s call it $1.2M per year. Scaling What the numbers above is mean is that Nova Leap needs to get another $1M of EBITDA to show the strength of its operating model. That would probably require $5M of capital. I expect that it will be done with a very small dilution to existing shareholders. Valuation and Upside Potential As I alluded above, current headline multiple of EBITDA is not particularly attractive. However, with getting more scale and proving the model, I would not be surprised if Nova Leap trades at 12x – 14x EBIDA in 1 year could generate a 100% upside Risks M&A Integration M&A integration risks are inherent for any roll up / consolidation strategy and NLH is not exception. 2. Leverage NLH has ~$2.0M of debt which is a lot given its EBITDA today. If NLH does not grow its EBITDA, its leverage can become an issue. Catalysts 1. Continuous M&A 2. Operating leverage showing up as the company continues to scale its operations.
TSXV:NLHLong
by JabroniCapital
1
XRP 2021 Bull Run projectionIt is clear that though we can use fractals to possibly pinpoint price projections that is just all they are price projections. Nobody hadsa crystal ball here In Crypto land so looking for this elusive perfect peak is a downright myth. Can we guestimate? Of course, we can, and this is why I am overlapping price bars from the 2017 XRP bull run on to the possible 2021 Bull Run we will be having. Could XRP hit over $100 by the peak? I don't know but if history proves a similar fate for this upcoming Bull Run then a big Yes is likely. I do not know if the channel that I have represents the second bottom point for xrp currently as we could possibly drop lower and test the 100 day moving average. Not sure on this one but time will have to tell.
Long
by altcoinb
8
SSTK over 69.03 with 12/2 catalystTight price consolidation on this one with an upcoming ex-dividend catalyst on 12/16, although purchase on or before 12/2 is required to receive it. This means we should see some buying on and before that date. From Yahoo Finance: "If you purchase the stock on or after the 2nd of December, you won't be eligible to receive this dividend, when it is paid on the 16th of December. Shutterstock's upcoming dividend is US$0.17 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of US$0.68 per share to shareholders." Note it is a stock that trades on lower volume and has some illiquidity in the options chain.
NYSE:SSTKLong
by SpinTrades
NZD/USD Drop to 0.65000 Hello Fellow Trader! Equity markets under pressure as presidential debate has the world scratching their heads on what unfolded. We can expect money flowing back into the DXY for safety which will weaken all denominated pairs like NZD/USD. The daily chart is now consolidating below the multi-month trend line break where we can expect some further downside pressure to 0.65000. In the short – term, NZD/USD has the 50 EMA to break for confirmation. Key Points: - Price holding below the 200 EMA - Price hugging above the 50 EMA - Daily – Trend line break and consolidation as a flag for continuation downside. - RSI has crossed below the 50 mid-point - Watching price at the next 1-hour trend line for a bounce or break. If enter as supporting entry, moving the stop to break even could be a wise move if a strong bounce occurs. Key Levels: Support – 50 EMA, 0.65400, 0.65110 Resistance – 0.65910, 0.66035, 0.66120 Entry Zone: Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals. Optimal Entry – 0.65880 Supporting Entry – 0.65785 Candle Reversals for entry - Bearish Shooting Star - Bearish Engulfing - Bearish Dark Cloud Cover The Risk: As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios. If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital. IF: Price breaks above 0.66035 level and violates 200 EMA– this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter. Reward / Reward Targets: Optimal Entry 0.65880 – Target 1 0.65400 = 3x Reward to Risk Optimal Entry 0.65880 – Target 2 0.65110 = 5x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 0.65785 – Target 1 0.65400 = 1.6x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 0.65785 – Target 2 0.65110 = 3x Reward to Risk
Short
by tradetheday
1
Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutEYPT chart is building up for another run. Potential catalyst before year end with an sNDA for Short Duration Yutiq. accumulation has been slow and steady indicating EYPT oversold conditions. Technical's: weekly chart --> Harmonic Gartley (bounced off significant support level) and been in uptrend since. Symmetrical Triangle/ Breakout setup has been known to act as a pre-courser to huge upside moves (40%+). Bull flag building in the symmetrical triangle. . . Read the rest then check out the rest of our trade ideas HERE Disclosure: I am long EYPT. I am not a financial advisor and this is not a buy/ sell recommendation but for education purposes only. Please do your homework before investing.
NASDAQ:EYPTLong
by follow_the_money
99.9% down from ATH. A play for biotech catalyst investorsRegenerative medicine company developing novel placenta-based cell therapy products. The Company has reported robust clinical trial data in multiple indications for its patented PLX cell product candidates and is currently conducting late stage clinical trials in several indications. PLX cell product candidates are believed to release a range of therapeutic proteins in response to inflammation, ischemia, muscle trauma, hematological disorders and radiation damage. The cells are grown using the Company's proprietary three-dimensional expansion technology and can be administered to patients off-the-shelf, without tissue matching. Pluristem has a strong intellectual property position; a Company-owned and operated GMP-certified manufacturing and research facility; strategic relationships with major research institutions; and a seasoned management team.
P
by warrenhochfeld
1
Soliton $SOLY Will Likely Trail Down Until Next CatalystSoliton reported highly anticipated results from its study on cellulite reduction on Monday, July 15th. In anticipation, the stock ran from $12 to $20, but on the day of, the stock closed down 15%. Soliton is a small cap medical device company that has an acoustic shockwave technology for tattoo removal called Rapid Acoustic Pulse (RAP). The treatment works pretty well, needing only 2-3 visits to remove tattoos vs the standard of care (lasers) which take about 10 doctor visits. They have also put a lot of press out about the potential of using their device for cellulite. It's worth nothing that this was their second cellulite trial. The company presented their first trial results using RAP to treat cellulite on May 11 at the National Aesthetics Conference. They also went on Yahoo Finance Video to talk about the results. The trial "succeeded" said management, however, the stock responded less than enthusiastically. The Full Article Is At BehindTheBid.com (CLICK HERE)
SShort
by behindthebid
3
Catalyst investing with T2 Biosystems (TTOO)Shares of T2 Biosystems (TTOO) have fallen by roughly 75% since the company's IPO was priced at $11 in 2014. Over the past 3 years, the share price has lost roughly two-thirds of its value and so far 2019 has seen further decline. Technical argument Limited: it’s no easy task trying to evaluate identify trading opportunities in price trends and patterns seen in small market capitalisation biotechnology. TTOO stock price is volatile because it is in possession of a breakthrough technology with its success relying on pivotal data that has not yet been made public. In addition, concerns remain, including cash burn and near-term financing. Even if TTOO is successful in achieving approval for various products the company may have difficulty getting hospitals and labs to adopt the technology. I have included indictors such as MACD, momentum, Moving Average MA, Relative Strength Index RSI and Point of Control POC. The conclusions from these indicators are limited, I have explained each individually on the graph. What I do draw from the graph is that TTOO has fallen back into the Point of Control: price point with the highest trade volume. We can see a bullish RSI divergence: TTOO makes a lower low and RSI forms a higher low and volume has started to increase. If investors consider the stock to be oversold the volume with continue to increase as traders buy stock and we will see a price rise. I would NOT buy stock based on this analysis because the volume spike could be investors offloading stock, even if we are at an all-time low. So let’s ignore the technical analysis because in this situation making an investment decision based solely on evaluating price trends won’t have any bearing on the outcome of upcoming catalysts and therefore the stocks potential value. Upcoming catalysts The company is in possession of a breakthrough technology for the detection of sepsis. A possible near-term catalyst for upside is results of the T2Bacteria Panel pivotal FDA clinical trial to be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal in Q2 2019 T2Lyme Panel is currently in a pivotal Phase 3 trial with very encouraging results so far and a $700 million market being targeted.
NASDAQ:TTOOLong
by warrenhochfeld