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Caterpillar

Daily Review: CAT, BA and QQQAs U.S. markets continue to rally against all odds at the expense of overly eager bears and quite frankly rational investing. Is it finally safe to assume the low is in? Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closing in the red, a lot of positive could be taken away from this week. The point I'll make today is not to get overly bullish. I'll show you why by analyzing CAT, BA, and QQQ. Where's the Support? The first chart is Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) on the weekly. Price was strongly rejected at $126.60. Additionally, it is possible that a descending trendline has been established. The focus right now is on support and respecting the downtrend. CAT is a risky buy at these levels, especially with Q1 Fiscal 2020 earnings being reported on Tuesday, April 28. Furthermore, over the last three quarters CAT has failed to meet estimated revenue, and going into Tuesday it's a safe to say that trend will continue. There is one interesting characteristic I will note on CAT. The consolidation between September 2019 and March 2020 is characteristic of a Wyckoff distribution (see below). Could CAT be a leading indicator or just one of many sectors that have been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic? Bias: Bearish . Buy the Dip? Boeing Company (BA) rallied just over 100% after capitulating at $89 per share. Congratulations if you bought the dip and pat yourself on the back if you sold the top of that dead cat bounce ! Yes, I suspect a dead cat bounce and risk of further downside. The BA chart may be as bearish as it gets as it has slashed through its long term trendline that had been support since 2009. To make things worse, going into the monthly close next week, price is getting rejected at $164.80. This area of resistance is important, as it was previous resistance for a span of two years between February 2015 and December 2016. I would become slightly less bearish if BA can reestablish itself above $164. In the meantime, book profits and continue to sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish . Fighting the Trend One of the first lessons I learned trading was that the trend is your friend. The reason why I say this is because in my view next week is set up perfectly for more gains across the board. Reason? Look no further than the Nasdaq Composite. Above, is the daily view of the PowerShares QQQ Trust, an ETF representing the Nasdaq 100. The QQQ has recently reestablished support within RSI bull market territory. I would be holding off on shorting until weakness is clearly established. Why short into a market full of stocks that have maintained bullish momentum despite the global crisis? Reminder, Tesla, Zoom, Netflix and Amazon are all part of the index. The trend remains intact...for now. Bias: Bullish . Looking Forward The market is at a crossroads. What is the trend being established? Are we in a bear market or bull market? As a trader, I try not to get hung up with where we are and focus on where the market is heading. Feeding a bias is a good way to get left behind. Keep an open mind but stick to the principles you established to analyze the market. This weekend, I have a crypto outlook and semi-conductors outlook. Have a great evening.
NYSE:CAT
by DailyClose
5
Figure "Cat Ears" A rare bear figure. BCN / BTC exampleAn example of this figure is on a BCN / BTC coin. A very rare figure, sometimes found in its various versions on altcoins. I have never met her on TOP 10 altcoins. This formation is generated by the fact that a major player (altcoin market maker) for a long time holds one price zone (usually this is the area where the main position was set) and all attempts to raise the price and reverse the trend fail. At one point, the strength and desire to keep this zone are running out and there is a breakthrough of the scalp level (zone of support of the figure). The Cat Ears shape is a bear formation. It arises only in a bear market and predicts a further decline in prices. Visually, it resembles a combination of the "Double Peak" and "Failed Cup" formations. The figure "Cat Ears" is named because of the apparent external resemblance to the ears of a cat. The figure is a rare, but reliable figure, and gives a clear price goal. The usual duration of the formation of the "Cat Ears" figure is from 10 to 60 days. This figure is very misleading in the sense that the presence of a horizontal cluster zone (“scalp”) gives a false impression that the price has reached very strong support. The left and right ears try to deceive the trader, making them believe that the price shows signs of strong interest of buyers. In fact, the return of the price to the scalp line (support) after the formation of the right ear is an indication that interest in purchases is short-term. ________________________________________ Phase shaping. "Cat ears" is formed of 6 phases: 1) Downtrend. Price is in a strong downtrend. 2) Pause . The price pauses for a while and fluctuates in sideways movement. 3) "Left ear. " The price shoots up, then quickly returns, forming the "left cat's ear". 4) The scalp . The price again fluctuates in lateral movement, forming a "cat scalp." 5) "The right ear. " Price fires a second shot, but returns again, forming the "right cat's ear." 6) Breakthrough. Continuation of the downtrend. The price breaks through the scalp line (support line) and the downtrend continues. _______________________________ Various formation options "Ears" left / right - can have different heights. The scalp line may be slightly above or below phase 2 (“pauses”). In most cases, this figure is formed during 6 phases, but in very rare cases it happens that phase 2 - “pause” is absent. Or vice versa, when phase 2 is very long and volatile, and it appears that the price is on the “reinforced concrete bottom”. But, then further formation of the “Cat Ears” figure - makes it clear that the downtrend will continue. All these variations of this figure have only one continuation - the resumption of a downtrend. _______________________________ Formation and volume change. As one would expect, during the formation of the “Cat Ears” figure, the volume is usually average or even at low values. Short-term volume increases may occur at the tops of the left and right “ears”. The lowest volume is observed in the "scalp" phase (between the "Ears"). Penetration of the Scalp support line can occur with a high volume, and any attempt to roll back to the scalp line is usually accompanied by a low volume. Often, volume surges can be observed at the beginning of phase 2 and at the lower points of the left ear. There are sometimes cases when the volume on the right “ear” is higher than on the left. This is due to the fact that when the price returns to the scalp line after the formation of the right ear, there are many traders who bought at the last local peak and suffer losses. Roughly speaking, traders who believe in growth are trying to get out of position. Thus, the increased volume on the right “ear” may be similar to the behavior of the volumes in other cases, when the crowd is also trapped at the top. In the case of the “Cat Ears” figure, the price has already tried twice to go up (left and right “ears”), but could not do this and returned to the scalp line (support). If the price then falls below this line, negative technical factors will appear that will trigger panic sales. The downtrend will continue. It should be noted that the behavior of volumes is not significant for this figure, except in special cases, since the figure itself is a fairly strong bearish signal. ___________________________________ Setting target when working with a figure. After breaking through the support on the scalp line, we can expect a decrease in height in percent from the top of the Ear to the level of the Scalp. It is also important if the price is being traded in your favor, and according to the plan you should already fix the profit, then it is advisable to stay in position while you get additional profit instead of the planned one. But always remember - greed begets poverty.
BEducation
by SpartaBTC
1
Adam Eve Cup of Tea! I see a nice break of this flag range, Im feeling a stretch punch after this nice W formation with a possible cup but from there we need to be caution around tp1 & tp2. A horizontal range can begin around the caution orange circles. Orange eye represents us to be watchful. It seems on the hourly we are expanding and collecting orders in order to get that next push up. It is possible to revisit the purple horizontal line depending on fundamentals. Price is holding above red ribbon Should CAT go bearish upon tp1 zone and go bearish around spring through fall of next year, I feel it will be the last time we visit 100 for a long time and we will make our way to 200. This would give us an ABCD pattern breaking the daily low @ purple circles. Orange - watchful Red - Sellers are watching Blue - Buyers are watching As long as we stay above 142.00 I see us staying bullish. A break below that will take us to a 140 retest and buyers will be watching for impulses. This kind of scenerio would create an INV head&shoulder formation on the daily and have the onion effect of a slanted version on weekly marked by the green shoulder circles and take us to the 78-88% fib correction zone where "head" formations can form. This would also lead into a new flag formation outside the daily flag range we just broke out of creating a new trend. As always please trade safely, manage risk, peace. love. trade.
NYSE:CATLong
by AschraM