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Inside the current correction on SQToday, we will take a look at Square INC. The main context for the price is the previous corrective structure (white lines). In August, the price apparently made a breakout which then got back into the structure once again, creating a secondary structure (yellow lines) We always work with the idea that the price moves between zones of the same degree, so, in this case, we expect the price to reach the lower zone of the current structure (support level) IF that happens, we want to observe a breakout of the inner trendline (white line inside the yellow structure). IF that happens, we will wait for a small retest, and then we expect a bullish movement towards the higher zone of the current correction (shared area between the primary and secondary corrective patterns.) The filters we are using to validate our view are: a) Contact with the support level b) Breakout of the inner descending trendline c) retest IF all the previous items are true, then: d) Wait for a bullish impulse towards the higher zone of the correction if we observe a clear breakout of the small retest we are looking for. Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view/chart or any comment about this. ;)
NYSE:SQ
by ThinkingAntsOk
8
#PLTR - Reversal H&S under formation. Get ready to go...Palantir is showing a right shoulder under formation, with the characteristic that the volumes on the head are low, as it should be for this kind of reversal pattern. In my opinion the price is now targeting the 21.30$ level, where it will probably and ultimately breaking the H&S neckline. This might be happening today or on Mon-Tue next week and not necessarely in today session Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
PLong
by FrancescoMerlettini
3
#PLTR reacts well on 20$ support and closed above yesterday highAs I shared this morning, I hoped for a daily close abve the high of the yesterday doji candle. The price managed to close higher than that and this is to me a great sign of possible reversal and confirmation of the rebounce from the 20$ level. I just would like to mention that the last two times the RSI touched the oversold territory (May and July 2021) the price reacted reaching an average of 45% increase and I want to think that this might be happening again this time. Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
PLong
by FrancescoMerlettini
9
Pending setup on ARKK based on Historical BehaviourToday we will share a pending setup we have on The ARKK Innovation ETF managed by Cathie Wood. Another great asset in terms of technical behavior. What's the key idea of this setup? -Once we have a CLEAR correction, EXAMPLE: a formation with more than 150 days or a significant drop in the price like 2020. We draw the MOST external trendline using Higher lows; the idea is that any candlestick must not be visible above that line. Ok, once the price makes the first breakout of that line, we wait for a small corrective pattern, which can be something like 3 days or more than 15 days. IF that happens, we trade above that correction with a stop loss below it and a take profit level at 2.5 Risk to Reward ratio. In the following picture, you can see the historical result of this strategy, EVEN in situations that we should NOT have entered. (we use a stop loss of 150USD as an example on every setup) Alright, so is this setup going to be a take-profit? I DONT F@%#ING now. And honestly, I don't care about the specific result of it. The only thing I know is that I'm executing a setup under a strategy that I have a clear edge over, so I don't know the result of the next setup. However, I'm certain that the result of the next 10 setups will have a positive edge. The risk I will be taking on this setup is 2% of my capital on the stop loss. That means that if everything goes wrong, I will lose 2% of my capital. The duration of this setup can be between 20 to 45 days. Thanks for reading! Feel free to add any comment or idea.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
ARKK 1D - Golden Cross Coming UpARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) led by Cathie Wood is shown a possible near break of the triangle with a possible golden cross on the MA coming up very soon. I plotted fib levels to see how I we can possibly go. There has been consolidation since March 2021. It seems that a breakout is coming very soon. What are your opinions on this? Comment below, hit the like and follow me. Thank you! Check out more below for recent Altcoin, Bitcoin and Stock Ideas. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
AMEX:ARKKLong
by MillionaireEconomics
2
$DKNG GETTING READY FOR A +40% MOVE!What Is the Accumulation Area? The accumulation area on a price and volume chart is characterized by mostly sideways stock price movement, which is seen by investors or technical analysts as indicative of large institutional investors buying, or accumulating, a large number of shares over time. Source: www.investopedia.com 1HR - Price trading sideways since late September. Analyst Price Target on $DKNG (TipRanks) High: 105 Average: 70.06 (44.01% Upside) Low: 41
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by ivanlarav
Are we on a relevant bouncing level on ARKK? Today we will take a look at Cathie Wood´s flagship, ARKK. Main elements of the chart: a) The price is against a resistance level + Lower trendline of the flag pattern (bigger white structure) + Lower trendline of the inner descending channel. b) Generally speaking, every time we find this level of alignment between technical elements, we tend to observe good reactions. c) So, should we BUY? No, remember that you should always use confirmations or filters before taking action. In this case, we want to see a bounce + small correction on the edge of the inner descending channel. If that happens, we can think about trading towards the higher trendline of the flag pattern (bigger white structure) d) What are the targets I can expect? We have two to propose. The first one is the higher trendline of the Flag pattern, and the second target is the resistance level at 130.00 e) Speaking about duration, we can expect a 50 to 70 days movement for a full movement like the one we are expecting f) We also have defined a red horizontal line that represents an invalidation level for this analysis. That means that we will assume that the price broke the current level, and we should expect bearish pressure until the next support level. Thanks for reading!
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Tesla and ARKK correlation!While Tesla and ARKK have had a significant positive correlation in the past 5 years, they have lost it 20 days ago! This is very unusual for ARKK to be negative when tesla is positive..! It could be because ARK selling its stakes in Tesla: According to Ark's daily transaction reports, three of the firm's funds, including its flagship Ark Innovation ETF, sold a combined 142,708 shares of Tesla on Wednesday, representing a stake worth about $108 million and adding to separate sales of about $166 million since late July. The newest transactions come just days after Wood touted Tesla's success and gave shares a price target of $3,000 (nearly 300% more than current levels) in an interview with Yahoo! Finance, saying the company's growing market share makes it poised to benefit from a nearly 18-fold increase in electric-vehicle sales by 2025. It seems she does not believe in her own analysis! www.forbes.com
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Moshkelgosha
8
High-Quality levels on DraftKings.Today we will take the last year of price quotation and we will work on all the relevant levels we will e paying attention a) The main aspect we can see are the exteriors support and resistance levels (these are our framework) b) Inside our range, we can draw a trendline that may work as a relevant support level. From there, we can expect a bounce and the following correction (Trading Opportunity 1). As we are breakout traders, these corrections are what we are looking for before entering the market c) If the price breaks the previously mentioned level, we will aim to see the price on the next support level (lower zone of our range) at 35USD. From there, we will expect the same sequence: bounce + the following correction. d) Both trading opportunities will share the same target 64USD, however, it is important to mention the inner resistance level at 56.00 USD (there we should be open to possible corrections) e) Final Idea: Remember, the best way of developing high-quality setups is by waiting for the price to reach high-quality zones. Working setups from there increase your odds of success Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:DKNG
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
$ARKG - Forget Noah, Cathies ARK will keep you afloat! Prime setup for $ARKG as we hit the midway point of Bloody September, the worst month for returns. We've already seen several pullbacks, and with quad witching coming on Sept 17, we're bound to see some volatility. I fully expect ARKG to fall a little further as the broader market bleeds, but come the quad witching hour, you'll start to see the tides shifting. Growth stocks are looking ready to launch off, and this fund which reflects not only biotech but also AI (as a lot of biotech companies stand to benefit from advancements in AI such as Googles Alpha Fold) is a prime example of the wave count that's prevalent across the board. Here we have: 1) W2 golden zone target between 80.50-76.79 (green) 2) Leg Y of W2, A = C equal legs target also matches 78.6% retracement of W2 (arrows) 3) Leg C of Y reaching its 14.6-23.6% fib targets between 76.34-75.34 (yellow) 4) Leg Y reaching its 23.6-38.2% fib targets between 77.63-75.70 (red) 5) Large volume profile node peaking around 76.30 This ETF should be in your growth portfolio, and now is the time to get your money ready. Remember, these funds have a 5 year time horizon. Ride the wave!
CBOE:ARKGLong
by ir-rizzle
1
Komatsu; Digging a way into Mother Earths heart & ESG PortfoliosDISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's background, fundamentals, and assets through various lenses to determine what is a good potential investment. The function of this write up is to serve as an educational resource for investors looking to understand how to find good investments. So read and learn some things about a company that might just make mining a lot more eco- and human friendly. Thesis "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." -Neil "Stretch" Armstrong If progress is measured in leaps and bounds, then it is the slow crawl of the steady steps up that power human achievement. While this author would love to present a company that has developed innovative technology promising to revolutionize instantly, the closest thing available was a tried and true heavy machinery powerhouse rotating through decarbonization and bringing remote work and AI to the mining and construction site. On top of that, the company doesn't even meow. However, Komatsu has the foundation and ethos of a Japanese company of Olde with the clear and present desire to be the big dog of construction, mining, reforestation, and automating all of it. It is in this three pronged approach that Komatsu looks to amplify their growth; carbon neutrality, automation, and ESG. Carbon neutrality is a silly term to use when discussing mining and construction, but the fact is that the world is using dirty machines to do a dirty job, and extremely inefficiently. Komatsu looks to take heavy machinery into a cleaner world with a goal of complete carbon neutrality by 2050, and halving CO2 by 2030. The most obvious methods are in developing heavy machines with alternative energy inputs, a project that Komatsu has titled "power agnostic". A major presentation on this will be at MINExpo 2021 on September 13-15. Intriguingly, Komatsu aims to, and does, use their vast experience in mining sites, and their ability to utilize modern digital equipment and technological software to analyze the physical workspace and create the most efficient network for actual labour. A 10% reduction in time to and from dumping is a 10% increase in trips done. Using simple, yet intelligent, steps to cut CO2 use where ever possible is an easy way to stack CO2 reductions and help Mother Earth. Automation builds on to carbon neutrality, by developing an integrated network of machines, all meant to serve their function and move on, the mesh of the construction/mining site becomes infinitely efficient. Humans are still necessary for complex tasks, but mining isn't. Allowing machines to do the repetitive tasks mechanically, without standard deviations of human chaos, the machines will perform quicker and without risk to human life. Mining and construction are terribly dangerous, with 14 and 10 deaths per 100,000 workers per year, miles ahead of Finance's .4. Killing humans is bad for business for many reasons, and killing employees is often worse. Taking technological steps to reduce the need for physical labour at labour-sites provides a dramatic cut to the worse costs in business. Not to mention the wear and tear physical labour of the magnitude and scope as these professions, keeping people out of mines and out of construction sites is a net positive for society. Leading to Komatsu's self-establishment as the ESG boy-wonder of the mining world. Doing what could never be thought done, making mining just a little more earth friendly. Taking on major projects and developing high throughput heavy machinery for reforestation projects. Establishing a culture of employee-enrichment and appropriate risk management, HR policies, and management behaviours. Any guidelines or criteria the SEC chooses to go with to police the ESG world, Komatsu will easily crush. Komatsu's PE of 20 is extremely undervalued given the extreme favourability and leverage put on other ESG darlings, especially the EV car manufacturers. In some regard, Komatsu, an EV manufacturer of excavators, dump trucks, diggers, and more, deserves a second look by major institutions and prominent investment groups looking for a cheap ESG pick. Where Komatsu itself succeeds internally, they supersede externally with massive growth in Africa, the Middle East and Asia/Oceania (not China, RIP Evergrande). Komatsu recognized their need to rotate heavily into developing regions, and have found major success in 2021. While sales are still immature in these regions, their ~100% YOY gains suggest massive potential in strengthening Komatsu's global presence and long term profitability. Furthermore, leveraging their "power agnostic" platform to fill construction companies demands for decarbonization, Komatsu has significant long term profitability focused on key geographic regions while $CAT is focused on America's $3.5 trillion infrastructure deal. No thesis can be without negatives, and Komatsu's OTC status is definitely a strong one. On one hand, there are no options available for Komatsu, preventing the usual derivative nonsense on main exchanges. On the other, OTC is poorly policed (as bad as the SEC do, they still do a lot but not there). To this end, this could be a very temporary issue that turns into a major positive as Japan is set to launch the Japanese stock exchange as a blockchain exchange, leading to a massive improvement in clearing, preventing basically every single problem that makes the stock market so easy to manipulate. To this end, this author strongly believes Japanese equities see a massive surge in the future as the inefficiencies of the current stock market infrastructure are removed and price discovery becomes unimpeded. And so the greatest issue with Komatsu falls to Japan's economy, and their ability to handle a major global financial crisis such as the one brewing. Previous articles illustrate this author's view on this matter, but nothing can change the brazen evidence that China's major financial groups are failing. Evergrande will collapse, whether into debtor's hands, or Xi Dada's welcoming arms, and with it, so will China's construction boom, and possibly the major construction projects across Asia and the Middle East that China has been funding through their bank in their attempt to financially consume smaller nations the same way the big banks did. Komatsu's ability to thrive and grow relies on the world growing, and mining. While a "global financial meltdown" could hurt any company, there is little to assume that Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan collapsing would prevent Latin America, Africa and Asia to continue building and developing. In fact, any drastic rebalance in capitalist goals and foundations are sure to be towards an ESG compliance, especially with the ECB parroting the demand for business to fight climate change. While the world might want to stop coal mining immediately, it can't, and powering development will continue to use this. However, the resources need to make the future, and an ESG compliant future, relies on mining and construction. Combined with Komatsu's push into reforestation machinery, likely to be useful in future terraforming capacities, there is significant upside to current financial system risks. Investor Relations Material Analysis/Breakdown + Fundamentals Komatsu is a big company with their stuff in order. Thus, there are a lot of documents to cover, little nuggets to digest and data to breakdown. This analyst has a favourable view of the company's outlook, and thus data is looked at in a favourable scope. It is absolutely imperative to understand that no matter how many lenses any investor uses, there will always be an inherent bias towards an explanation of a datum. This section is a breakdown of key media, investor relations documents and interviews. There is a lot of overlapping information in these, but in an attempt to illustrate the reasoning behind the conclusion, and providing a thorough analysis of key documents. The Komatsu Report www.komatsu.jp Part of analyzing is calling out bad data. Page 4 and 5 are graphs showing two different things; Page 4 is the demand in units from 1950 to 2000, showing a capped demand in units starting in 1988, while Page 5 is 2001 to 2019 net sales in Billions of Yen. If demand in units had increased from 2001 to 2020, it would have been one graph, which means they aren't getting an increase in demand, year over year, but that inflation is the key to their increased sales. Truth be told, in a time of hyperinflation, that business model works out well enough, after all, a company enabling growth, whose growth depends on global growth, in a time of unparalleled economic growth, is in a great spot. Plus, the real money comes from service contracts and technical training/repairs. As the total number of existing units increases, and the average age of those units increases, the profits will continue to build. This being illustrated on page 9. Page 8 shows 4 case examples of Komatsu's innovation. The coolest one being the electric mini-excavators, especially the part where it comments on the reduction of noise pollution. Electric construction machinery will be quieter as the internal combustion engines on these beasts are so loud, and that is amazing to think about as this analyst has lived in an active construction zone. Page 10 shows they relied on an acquisition to get a big chunk of their mine training portfolio, suggesting Komatsu knows what it is doing with those Investment expenses on their books. Page 19 has an interesting tidbit on issuing green bonds. There isn't much to note here, actively growing and working companies issue debt all the time, but they also constantly pay off debt, this is a natural cycle. The green bonds mean Komatsu is going to position itself as the ESG-friendly construction/mining company. With a goal by 2050 to be carbon neutral, and by 2030 to halve 2010's CO2 production, Komatsu is making serious strides in this direction. This puts Komatsu in a great position for future funds and institutions to make space in their portfolios, as well as opens up Japan buying the bonds, and giving the company a huge investment. As of this time of writing, BOJ's Kataoka wants the government to increase bond purchases to ramp up the economy. Komatsu is a Japanese corporation, with shareholder mechanics insuring that 51% of equity in the company is Japanese. This could be a match made in heaven as Komatsu looks to rotate into carbon neutrality and the "eco-friendly" mining/construction phase. Page 26 has a video-gamey picture of what the digital Smart mining space could look like, as well as serving as a great example of the usefulness and potential of the technology at this level and on. Page 27 illustrates the safety issues in construction and mining, turning as much of that into remote/AI is going to be key, in congruence with national social buffering legislation to the tune of a Universal Basic Income to protect those whose jobs are no longer needed, for better or worse. Page 28 has the biggest potential impact in the future, especially as the middle east and Africa build up their reforestation projects, and as this technology develops in an efficiency and productivity manner, meaning increased reforestation, Komatsu stands at the head of being the primary provider in a field with few others (CAT doesn't have this stuff, the same way Komatsu doesn't have some CAT stuff). Page 32 through 53 illustrates the ESG vision and is a thorough report on why Komatsu belongs in an ESG heavy portfolio. Thing is, it's good and they're right. They are taking the steps, acknowledging the picture, and filling in every box way before the SEC even thinks to check. This is a great example for other companies in filling out their own. But most importantly, its actually ESG. It is clear that Komatsu has been taking massive steps in giving themselves the right image, if only for narcissism then still better than 99% of companies. www.komatsu.jp Secondary presentation with much the same as the longer, but worth the skim to shore up questions or looking for a summary after a long scroll. Financial Documents 41% YOY increase in net sales with a 151% YOY increase in EPS. Projections for 2022 show Komatsu believes in its future, with a 327% increase in EPS by March 31, 2022. A super interesting point on Komatsu's Financial reports is this share treasury they have. I have often thought about this concept of a company playing market maker to itself, being able to profit off of their own short squeezes and taking advantage of maleficent attempts to short their stock, as well as creating a pool for immediate liquidity should the need arise; Komatsu has just under 28 million of its own shares, having bought over a hundred thousand of their own over the last quarter as well. While some investors might be wary of this, I don't see any need for Komatsu to raise capital from the stock market, and being a dividend stock, there are considerably great reasons to pull as many shares off the market and keep them for yourself as possible. Komatsu's management performance report makes it clear that a significant part of Komatsu doing well is the Japanese Yuen depreciation (deflation for Japan) has given Komatsu strength in comparison to Japan's economy. This author has little ability in understanding how this macroeconomic event will impact Komatsu, as it is an international company based on growth and development in a critical field no matter the underlying economic condition of the country; gut feeling is Komatsu should remain unscathed by Japanese economic events at large due to the growth in sectors like India and Brazil (and as the world continues to develop no matter how much gold or dollars are worth). In truth, the only thing to do is to look at the global distribution of sales and compare year on year in the hopes of identifying the growing market. Page 7 is the table for just that. Basic rundown, North America is the biggest market, and grew 34% yoy, but it isn't by much. Latin America grew the same percent, and with these countries in a much more underdeveloped spaces as is, there is plenty more room to grow no matter a global downturn. Just because the economy is bad doesn't mean that 2nd and 3rd world countries aren't putting in the hours building and mining. Europe & CIS were miniscule parts and grew poorly, which is not a terribly large surprise. The biggest area of growth this author would truly like to see would be in Africa, Asia + Middle East. And it did. 120% yoy for Asia, 168% Middle East, 86% Africa. The real values are low, coming in at ~30% of total sales, but the most important component is creating a base and a name. As development continues in these regions, the need for construction and mining equipment will grow. Furthermore, they have about 35 billion dollars of assets and 8 billion in debt. That leaves Komatsu at $27 billion in worth, with a market capitalization of $22.9 billion. With a PE ratio of 20 and PS (price to sales) ratio of 1, there looks like nothing but upside. Net increase of 930 million dollars on the books for the quarter (conversions from Yuen to USD are done at 1:.15). Page 15 showing Komatsu paying more debt than borrowing, of course the cycle of debt is obnoxious to see but that is how business works and is a completely normal sight. There is no way to put it, but China is going to hurt. It is going to hurt potential growth, cutting the forecast from a super big positive % to a smaller positive %. Evergrande is going under in one form or another, and China is going to have to take a stranglehold of their economy, likely pulling back from Capitalism for another batch of years similar to their back and forth in the 2000s with the previous global financial crises. Invariably, this is going to less Komatsu construction machines going to China, and potentially decrease the already decreased sales into China. The most important thing to look out for is how this will also affect the rest of Oceania/Asia where China's bank has inserted itself and funded construction projects in developing countries. If this financial support collapses, and many construction projects get abandoned or cut in size, Komatsu could find that big growth in these sectors getting cut. Still, India, Brazil and Africa could carry a big chunk of the business. Another element that tickles this author's noggin is the CAT infrastructure deal. While Komatsu will certainly reap something from the $3.5 trillion infrastructure deal, most likely from a secondary relationship as the bill will focus on American companies, CAT will get the biggest reward. However, CAT has a limited ability to produce, and perusing their technology selection, seem to be at the remote control business segment as well, but not past, meaning if Komatsu has the goods at MINExpo, it could force a fun play on Komatsu taking over the global segment as CAT funnels its supply line into America alone, and Komatsu could keep that global share as its technology dominates the field. www.komatsu.jp www.komatsu.jp Backup presentation: www.komatsu.jp Geographic Sales: www.komatsu.jp Perhaps the Piece de resistance of Evergrande's and China's upcoming issues, this document beautifully shows Komatsu's growth has been amazing in 2021, but China is drying up, preparing for Evergrande's collapse and the potential halt in major building projects across the country. Interview covering Electric Excavators and "Power Agnostic" Dump trucks im-mining.com Great article covering 2 major business plans. First, Komatsu looks set in going after electric excavators, with a lithium ion battery version coming into mass production in 2022. Second, a clean definition of what Komatsu is developing and what they mean by "power agnostic": Regarding mining dump trucks, we will proceed with the development of “power agnostic” dump trucks that can operate with a variety of power sources – such as engines, batteries, trolley systems and hydrogen fuel cells – by 2030. What this means as far as if Komatsu is just using a burner line akin to something Lordstown would say, or if this means Komatsu has plans for all of these. The interview with the CEO shows a model of one of their massive dump trucks with a battery and hook-ups for a trolley-line, but investors should know better than to fall for that. The only thing giving credibility to Komatsu's claim is their proof of work in the Lead-acid battery mini-excavators, and the fact that Japanese CEOs who lie tend to wind up fleeing the country in boxes with breathing holes. Earthbrain: Komatsu + Sony + NTT DOCOMO Komatsu gets 54.5% of the new company, offers their data, platform and heavy lifting (pun intended), while NTT DOCOMO will handle the AI and computer systems, SONY does the sensing equipment. A basic search for NTT Docomo yields nothing impressive; Japan's major mobile network operator, with a few patents that don't suggest a foundation in AI or robotics, the space is relatively mature enough that scooping up the right team isn't impossible, and Japanese academic labs are ripe with cheap talent and market ready products that it is completely reasonable to expect Komatsu to follow through. The only thing making this deal look bad is Nomura's role as the salesforce, mostly because Nomura gets very little right. This definitely won't start as fully automating the field, but it does look like Komatsu et al are pushing towards that with the obvious statement of AI intent on NTT Docomo, but the general idea stands to be fleshed out as Sony fulfills their part and gives the tools necessary to make it happen. gateway.smartconstruction.com www.earthbrain.com www.constructionequipment.com www.komatsu.eu Bull Theory Keeping this brief as the entirety of this analysis feels like bull theory; Komatsu has more upside than downside, with the obvious twists and turns of the nascent market. This author is under the pretense that money does not disappear, but is stolen, and thus any market downturn is due to a large amount of money being taken out of it, and put somewhere else. In turn, the Global leaders understand that the only way to fix a problem on fiscal policy, is to make it very small, hence the push for hyperinflation right now by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, PCOB, etc, etc, etc. They fully see the inflation rates are well past their mark and far greater than transitory, but they also see the need to make the current problems not as big so as to manage them. This leads to a conclusion that the world governments will work out a plan so as to accelerate the hyperinflation, but to put a lot of these assets in developing the 2nd and 3rd world countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America. By offering technology and assistance, the hegemony remains in place and the G7 can avoid collapse, while actually doing a good thing. This has happened before, the 2008 financial collapse was absolutely central to a huge amount of international debt forgiveness and further developments in developing countries. Back to Komatsu; this author is under the assumption that any global financial slow down would negatively affect Komatsu's growth, but not to a negative number. Furthermore, Komatsu has a strong history of remaining unaffected by the greater global financial ups and downs, mimicking the viewpoint that construction and mining are inflation, deflation, and collapse proof. As Komatsu fleshes out its autonomous fleet running on carbon neutral energy sources, they will secure their position as the global leader in construction and mining equipment, breaking down CAT's walls. MINExpo is unlikely to be as significant a catalyst as one would expect with the unveiling of drastic technological upgrades, but a near-term tick up followed by some noise from the underlying system, should all lead to massive gains upward, especially as investors look for sympathy plays from the infrastructure bill with some major growth possibilities. Bear Theory Global Financial Collapse to end them all hits, economies crumble, armies can't get paid leading to all out anarchy and militaristic triads and elephants in the Alps, everything just goes to shit. Or, things just slowdown hardcore, governments go on austere measures and try to play the rules of their own game and dig out of the hole slowly, leading to a global recession similar to Japan's past few decades. The entire equities market sinks as investors leave for cryptocurrencies, bonds, gold, commodities or crowdfunded VC, etc., etc., etc. Because that is what it would take for Komatsu to not have an amazing run. CAT has no ability to suffocate them out, and supply chain alone keeps start-ups out of the game. If there is a downturn in Komatsu's stock price or sales, it would be entirely out of it's own hands, meaning they won't mess this up. Management has shown they can rotate well into whatever happens, and the internal departments understand the markets they need to continue to push in to secure their future. While many old school investors think ESG is bullshit, the fact is that the world government's do not, and with continued ecological devastation caused by pollution and the destruction of Earth's atmosphere: ESG is here to stay and will only get bigger. And thus the argument is skewed towards success, the inherent bias shown, and the reader left with a need to research and verify for themselves. Disclaimer Thank you for your time, I truly value it and hope that this brings value to it. This analysis is not to serve as primary financial advice, rhyme or reason. This work is to serve as an editorialized overview of the parts and pieces of the investment, as well as the different ways this author analyzes it. As of the date of publication, 9/2/2021, this author has no investment in Komatsu $KMTUY in any form. As the primary purpose of this article is to be informative of the company, the stock market, and relevant market mechanics, please feel free to ask any questions. Thank you.
OTC:KMTUYLong
by DoctorFaustus
9
Ginkgo Bioworks; An Incubator of Endless PotentialDISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's background, fundamentals, and assets through various lenses to determine what is a good potential investment. The function of this write up is to serve as an educational resource for investors looking to understand how to find good investments. So read and learn some things about a company that might just change the world and kick off a rapid cycle of development for industries across the spectrum using microorganisms. Pre-Thesis First, read the companies investor presentation here . Thesis A pre-addendum to this thesis, and the greater body of work; this author loves Ginkgo. All of it. Everything makes sense and the company gets it done. Scientists from top to bottom with a clear value in people. Fundamentals scream buy on every front, Ginkgo Bioworks has potential to be more than just the Google of Biology. In earnest, the company is an absolute win, and as the market comes to understand what exactly synthetic biology is, Ginkgo will earn respect deserved. The market has never seen a company like Ginkgo, even chemicals giants like 3M don't seem fit to compare. Every once in a while a company comes along that changes the definition of the industry, where biology might be thought of as limited to medicines, or synthetic biology might have been thought of for novel chemicals; Ginkgo is the breakthrough technology that the market will recognize. However, everything about the current fundamentals and the origins of the company scream caution. While SPAC the term is mocked in financial media, the full issue underlying has not gained hold. Ginkgo the company, and $SRNG, the ticker, will be set to unite ~September 19th, 2021, making Ginkgo $DNA. Ginkgo, and the Soaring Eagle Acquisition Group will not fully separate for quite some time. As the initial "investors" flea the scene of the crime, the price will be in an unpredictable pattern. The options chains for Ginkgo are over-weighted, a possible sign of significant retail interest, while the market makers writing those options take on more shares, and keep the price in a wide-fixed channel for their percentages. While each investor must decide if the investment is correct for them, and when to make it, as well as the risk, this author cites $SRNG as extremely volatile with significant upside. Due to the nature of an open PIPE-line of a SPAC, it is unlikely a squeeze, short or gamma, will occur. While the regular cast of criminal hedgefunds making money off of forced volatility are present, a significant number of institutional buyers that would suggest a more bullish cast are buying. With the big three, Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock, not in the pool, and a clear need for Ginkgo to fill a number of ESG portfolios, there is the possibility for heavy institutional desires. Adding to the mix are the number of asset management and bank holders that would be reminiscent of a large percentage acquisition bid. And standing at a theoretical $15 billion market cap post deal at $10/share, there is little reason to not assume a significant upside. Following previous SPAC patterns, it might be safer to extrapolate SRNG is closer to halving than doubling, but if current market events hold true to major hedgefund liquidations on the horizon, the future for $SRNG is unclear. From this point on, this is a love letter to Ginkgo's ($DNA) potential, and a hopeful comparison to their present. Synthetic biology is a fancy way of saying "making yeast, fungi or bacteria to make something new to them and useful for us". Ranging from practicality to pure imagination, synthetic biology is likely to be the last stop of development cycles, barring the invention of magic. The development cycle for jet fuel has been to mine it from the ground, to chemically synthesizing it, to now using yeast to make it. This will be the final developmental step for jet fuel until innovation to a new fuel/energy source. Diamonds were mined, now chemically in the lab, until eventually, some fungi is made to form massive diamonds from nothing more than waste feed. This is the rudimentary start for synthetic biology as well. Ginkgo recently partnered with Bolt Threads, a group trying to use synthetic biology to make spider silk in massive quantities, enough for scalable commercialization. And Ginkgo is going to do it, as long as it can be done. For now, scientists push synthetic biology in novel ways to scalable structures, that is to say, micro-structures building micro-structures. In this way, Ginkgo working with Cronos to make yeast produce THC antiderivatives models little cells making little compounds. How Ginkgo is going to come at filaments will be very interesting to see, and if it works, could be used to make far more than just spider silk. On the endless possibilities of synthetic biology, each reader becomes the author as every concept could become actualized. Creating living structures that heal through wear and tear, surviving flooding, earthquakes, and massive wind forces. Creating localized factories capable of outputting essential materials and nutrients for the population to ensure food security. Creating rare materials out of recycled waste for massive industrial development. From healing the planet to building new ones on Mars and outward, synthetic biology is all of that. And humanity has reached the point where the doors have been opened to the future, it is walking through it without realizing, and as more and more synthetic biology successes are popularized, Ginkgo will reap the reward of being the first, the best, and a proven partner. The way early Google incubated the dreams of their employees, so too does Ginkgo. Motif FoodWorks, itself just gaining an impressive valuation, is a seed from inside Ginkgo that is blossoming both in and out of Ginkgo, all to the tune of 30% equity ownership and persistent contracts for R&D + future manufacturing. From all regards, this is likely just the start of the game for Ginkgo, especially as they show no signs of slowing down on growth and risk. Perhaps the greatest signifier is their impressive team size . In a world where R&D platforms do their best to slim down, Ginkgo moves to build. To their reward, they earn the R&D funding of countless future partners, and significant to now, Bayer, Roche, Biogen, Cronos (of $CRON), and more with significant revenue streams. To this end, Ginkgo plays the role as a mobile R&D unit for big players, a R&D wing for smaller startups allowing them to focus on business, an R&D extension providing expertise in the world of Synthetic Biology to other R&D groups, while also building their own brand of companies like Motif. Illustrating the potential market for these Synthetic biology projects is Gevo ($GEVO), which this author has written on before. Gevo's platform, using biomass waste like corn growth material to generate isobutanol which can be used as Jet fuel or made into a carbon neutral fuel for internal combustion engines, is all enabled by synthetic biology. That is, a Nobel prize winning biochemist, Dr. Frances Arnold, modified yeast to make isobutanol instead of alcohol. Ginkgo's specialty is taking yeast and getting them to do novel processes just like Gevo did. In the context of their partnership with Cronos, they are tasked with getting the yeast to make the precursors of THC, something done in specific plants. A sample workflow for this process would look like the following: Identify the synthesis pathway for THC, put the enzymes in yeast and see if they make drugs. Their recent success was with the synthesis of CBGA, the Cannabinoid precursor for the first major project arm of their partnership with Cronos, guaranteeing them ~1.5 million shares of Cronos in equity, while opening the path for ~9.5 million more with the final synthesis of three derivatives of CBGA. Progressing this project, Ginkgo will add the enzymes thought responsible for the natural synthesis of the derivatives in plants into yeast synthesizing CBGA. While the process seems simple enough, the work is grindy and failure-ridden, and unprepared startups would spend tens of millions of dollars and years of setup time, where the partnership with Ginkgo looks to cost ~$4M on average depending on project logistics. In one regard, more companies shuttering their R&D arms saves everyone money, and creates more capital to put into riskier projects without the need to account for startup costs and heavy research lead times. On the other, less R&D groups means less jobs in an already terrible job economy for Research, driving demand even lower, supply constantly increasing, all without consummate pay increases for the lucky few in the great positions; enabling science foundries like Ginkgo runs the risk of causing long term harm to the future supply of competent researchers. Again, on the other, Ginkgo has a clear predilection to hire before they need to, and establishing a center for researchers running on ethical and logistical lessons of researchers allows the possibility of a fair market unionization of research laborers. The social aspects to Ginkgo's success are sure to be interesting the same way that Google's, Facebook's, Microsoft's, etc. are to the investment media, because Ginkgo belongs in the same tier. Whether Wall Street wants to believe in retail or not, their money will be respected, and Ginkgo's courtship with retail investors borders professional and genius. Honestly and harshly, the only way to &$%# this up for Ginkgo, is if Ginkgo @#^%'s this up. Respectfully speaking, bringing on twitter and reddit investors is a fantastic idea if they are in as long and patient investors looking to learn, but the population seeking X000% gains on options with specific dates can create a significant storm in a can that cannot be ran from, and with the bears of the market more similar to vultures, any hole in an investor base leaves them open to significant drops in price, without updated market rules, that can leave them unable to raise significant capital to pay for previous or future debt. While it is completely possible that Ginkgo never needs to go to the market again, especially as their pipeline spits out revenue in the second half of 2021, the risk is always there. Ginkgo will inevitably become the darling of the ESG funds, leading to a certain restriction to ESG guidelines and values. Their board and staff is extremely diverse, their attitudes polar opposite of UBER's, and their management style seeming to emanate the purity that only a hopeless romanticist of a scientist could paint; any fault or failure will become a sledgehammer to the glasshouse that Ginkgo will get put into. For all the deserved praise the management team could ever get, and receives, the threat of a scandal 5 years down the line from some bear firm with little true value can pose a risk. The greatest cap to Ginkgo's market cap is the market's understanding of the potential of synthetic biology, and it's acknowledgement that Ginkgo Bioworks is the Queen, King, Rook, Knight, Bishop, and Pawns of it's field. If Facebook's social database and its ability to manipulate it guarantee it a $1 Trillion market capitalization, then the market will struggle to define a limit for the company with a database on biological processes and the ability to manipulate them to synthesize complex and completely novel chemicals, drugs, materials, etc. Ginkgo recognizes this, and utilizes social media as a means to help themselves. Few companies have filed Reddit AMAs into EDGAR, but Ginkgo will be viewed as early adopters rather than lessons of caution. Illustrating the depth that scientific analysis can bring, Ginkgo's Biosecurity push, with Concentric, is a masterstroke in rotating through a growing pandemic, and a significant social evolutionary moment. Creating a network of testing for COVID infections, COVID variants, and any potential plagues in schools and airports illustrates Ginkgo identifying a need, developing a solution, and putting it into action. Of course, all while fulfilling a serious and unmet hole that the US government is going to realize more and more, creating a lucrative program with the potential for massive scaling throughout the United States, as well as internationally in congruence with or to back up national testing programs. From the risk of settling at establishing a biological and green method of synthesis for a range of chemicals, therapeutics, and rare materials, to the rewards of establishing the next phase of humanity's development on the wings of the microscopic world of synthetic biology, Ginkgo Bioworks' has significant long-term upside as the market understands the field, and Ginkgo's hold of it. While the current price dynamics and stockholder mechanics are chaotic and teeming with potential volatility to either side, the clearest solution, and soundest investment advice for $DNA, is to buy and hold. As the investor base that believes in Ginkgo's long term potential, and market potentiation, increases, the price will reflect. No investment should be a "set it and forget it", but investors looking for a future forward portfolio placement should consider Ginkgo through short term dynamics. As Ginkgo's partnerships continue through from start to finish, their equity holdings continue to accrue, leaving Ginkgo in a position to become an impressive asset manager on top, providing further routes for their Science-first ethos to dominate. As the cherry to this thesis, should an investor have any questions, their team is available on social media constantly, and as long as the tweet has a mention of tusk or wood, it'll get answered. Ginkgo Bioworks is a serious contender for any thesis investor's portfolio with flavours ranging from ESG, SciFi-Star Trek, chemicals, biologics, etc., with plenty of runway left to pick up speed for a flight that seems more likely to end in space than ever touch down on Earth. Database Framework versus Manufacturing Pipeline Specialists While Ginkgo might fancy itself the Microsoft of synthetic biology, I view it closer to the Google of Synthetic Biology. More of their press releases these days are partnerships on ramping up production of biologics from yeast to synthoids (synthezoids, or whatever badass term gets used), whether it's spider silk, Capping enzymes for mRNA therapies, dyes, or cannabinoids. The spread is impressive, but the real killer is this; Ginkgo is doing all the hardcore science. Their internal database for protein engineering might be impressive, but they put in the work with a high throughput platform for testing. Watching the videos shared by their social media team, their robotics suite is impressive. Their production facilities look amazing. Brewers can agree, growing yeast never looked so sleek and sexy. The secret to Ginkgo is their team. It is massive, but it is necessary. Investment firms can make sense of this, the more analysts allowed to specialize in their respective area, the more coverage you have over the space, and thus your dominance lies in your collective ability to conquer the problem. Their team serves dual roles; to iterate through their customers problem to find the best solution (in most cases, best enzyme), and to explore the potential of synthetic biology. While some may view the peak of synthetic biology as the single cell organism capable of performing the entire synthesis of cocaine, Ginkgo has to figure out how much science can push on cellular life to perform novel complex biochemical reactions. When thinking science fiction, envision Ginkgo's long term business plan. They need to figure out if the limit is making complex chemicals and novel synthetic materials, or if they can create cells that make infinite food while fixing the ozone. Part of that is taking on appropriate research partners, and appropriate risk. Ginkgo's platform is the mechanical testing side, and the sum of their knowledge from previous experiments. Allowing companies to plug in their knowledge base, their commercial goals, and their capital, Ginkgo only ever wins. They take zero risk from any partnership as their role starts at the development side, and R&D is covered for the first cycle. While it would be awesome to see every project end with a success and massive profits, the more likely outcome is success. Seriously, Ginkgo is knocking it out of the park with their deals and pipelines. And with each new deal comes more money with no risk, more iterations of their internal machinery, and a massive increase in their data. When the market realizes the true value of biological data, especially of this magnitude, there will need to be a fundamental change in how these companies are weighted as the intrinsic value becomes priceless. For any startup looking to step in the synthetic biology space, they must run through the same steps of formulating a plan, building a synthetic tool base, and spending the next batch of time in the research and development phase. Ginkgo serves as the synthetic tool base and the physical workspace on biological iterations. As long as they remain fair to these startups, the need to develop in house R&D departments will decrease, leading to less start up costs, less fumbling in figuring out the correct starting point for a synthetic tool base, and have a higher chance of succeeding past this initial phase, ultimately leading to increased overall successes of the initial business plan and increased profits for the VC investors, while building their own equity in startups; Ginkgo winning means the industry wins. Keeping to this plug and play format, Ginkgo allows itself the freedom to rotate through projects without long term operating attachment, while also serving as the launch pad to countless future successes and groundbreaking companies. Ginkgo surpasses Microsoft, Amazon, or any other company analogy for one simple reason: it plays nice. Except Google. Ginkgo feels a lot like early Google, and every compliment feels like this author could have made the same comments 20 years ago on a tech startup that was leveraging their expertise into an explosive field by doing something amazing, playing nice. While Ginkgo might commit to playing nice forever, it will be exciting to watch how they hold on to that over the next decade. endpts.com www.prnewswire.com cen.acs.org www.globenewswire.com Biosecurity This has been a fascinating field to see private companies rotate into. While the UK has the NIH to monitor for potential biothreats (such as plagues from viruses, including variants of COVID-19), USA is left with a glaring hole in protecting and preparing for oncoming biological disasters. Ginkgo has been going far outside their original reach, and succeeding. This author calls this attribute "rotating"; the need was present, the path clear, the gap filled and Ginkgo comes out of it looking a lot more than just a bioproduction monster house. Ginkgo rotated through COVID, absolutely hurt by the lack of productivity, not just from their own office, but when they rely on the productivity of outside groups, and they came out looking great, wow. Concentric, a pooled COVID test, allows for groups to be tracked down quickly as a means of limiting spread. While it isn't the same as being able to track person to person, breaking down the group is a god-send in keeping exposure limited. Concentric is a bit more than just a one time program as well. COVID is likely here to stay, and with the increased precautions surrounding this virus, an increase in consciousness to the spread of Influenza and other possible viral contagions leads to one salient demand; the viral ecosystem must be monitored to stay on top of future outbreaks. The scary fact at the end of the day with COVID, is that nothing absolutely special happened with it. Sure, it might be linked to some pangolin or bat in a market, but the Spanish Flu could be traced back to a pig farm in Iowa. With the dramatic increase in globalization and population density, the probabilities of plagues increases. Only by monitoring for these, as well as working on our biological defense mechanisms, can the world best protect itself from future pandemics. Ginkgo coming in first isn’t a gimmick, they are making it happen. Their recent partnership with XpresSpa is allowing themselves to serve as the biological platform for any number of future physical testing and monitoring service, and making good graces with the air travel industry is a good way to jet across the world with business partnerships. This isn't ground breaking science, it isn't too much more than a basic biology 101 lab, but it is an important tool in protecting lives and staying ahead of pandemics. What's better is they can serve as the monitor for variants. Unfortunately, variant testing is not done well and not done in high quantities. There is a significant chance that a large population of the current "delta" wave is lambda or novel mutants, and not knowing what exactly is happening to the virus as it spreads across the world, and America, leaves us vulnerable to all possibilities. As so much Ginkgo has leveraged their social media reach for their own market capitalization, they have used it to sell their system as well. This author has seen tweets from the VP of Ginkgo to a School board member in some random state selling the Concentric platform, and it worked. Want to sell the product, use the product developer. This author cannot state enough how scientists in charge of everything can be amazing as long as they are kept inside the safeguards of fair fiduciary responsibility. Their second project of note: IARPA, for sure some derivative of DARPA, sponsors Ginkgo to develop code to make sure no customer orders DNA sequences that could be used to create a biological weapon. First, that is awesomely dystopian sci-fi. The fact that the United States of America has to monitor Scientists to make sure we aren’t trying to create some monster virus that wipes out the entirety of humanity speaks to the fact that we are playing with tools that deserve more respect than we are given. While there's an argument for establishing fair market value for research work, it shall be spared from this article. This is one of those programs that needs to be funded way before it is needed, and tested way before it has to go online. This is the kind of job that scientists should be paid big money to brainstorm the destruction of biological life just to ensure no one else should be able to order it from their DNA synthesizer of choice. www.ginkgobioworks.com www.globenewswire.com lance-Tracking-in-Collaboration-with-Concentric-by-Gi.html www.ginkgobioworks.com SPAC Theory This author utilizes these write-ups for multiple purposes; First and foremost, education and research are righteous. Second, giving retail investors the tools to perform their own deep dives in companies such that Wall Street Elite's ability to make blank claims is diminished. Third, breaking down several corrupt and broken components of the stock market and exposing them to the public for greater understanding of the type of crime big banks and big money is able to do. While SPAC's are contentious for many reasons, the first being the fact that they are blank-checks and the directors of them get full control on the company bought, the biggest issue this author wants to draw to SPACs is their creation and mechanics surrounding their initial release. In a normal IPO, a bank or large investment group must be willing to co-sign the total value of the stock offering, that is to say, someone must be willing to put up money against Ginkgo's $15 Billion blank-check opening. In the past, a bank like Goldman Sachs might partner with Ginkgo, offer them a few million dollars of early funding and the hard work of powering through most of the useless barriers the SEC puts up for listing on the stock market, while gaining a huge amount of equity in Ginkgo and the right to sell the shares at the beginning. Then Goldman would go to a Market Maker, whose job is to create a buffer for the price on the stock market by creating active channels where investors can enter, buy shares, and hopefully not sell them back. SPACs are different from IPOs in that a huge amount of shares are sold off right away as all the initial investors are laundering money through the Cayman Islands, so their interest in the initial investment growing is nil, they just need the money to keep shuffling to provide more laundering. Not to say Goldman Sachs isn't doing the same, because they are, but even banks have limits to the money they'll launder (except Deutsche and HSBC). SPACs don't fix rules, they just allow more corrupt entities without control access to the market creating more room for manipulation, not less. SPACs take the worst elements of an IPO, and make it that much worse. Citadel, a market maker, broker-dealer, private investment firm, public investment firm, pseudo-bank, puppet master of Robinhood and retail trades, is able to come in and serve the role of Goldman Sachs without any one else inviting them in. Like any Vampire, Citadel loves the ability to skip waiting at the door, and their ability to flourish in SPACs is a time bomb waiting to go off. The worst part is this, the market making is so manipulative that the price is unable to leave the desired channel, even if all the initial shares are sold. Citadel is also a massive options market maker, meaning they are selling all the options for $SRNG as well, so any hope of the price breaking out is likely to be nil, until the SEC and federal government create rules protecting the free and fair market activity of price discovery. This is also a reason why $SPFR is on the chart, despite being completely separate, despite being absolutely in no way similar to $DNA, establishes similar behaviours. The price is at $10, not because the market wants it, but because Citadel is going to keep it there long after any initial shares are left. While Citadel and Kenneth Griffin might be the "genius" giants of the field, they are not the only ones, and any number of corrupt entities utilize SPACs to launder billions of dollars. The solution to all of this would be to re-write the process of IPOs, protecting investors and companies, but then the SEC and banks lose their critical cuts of their corrupt game. This authors advice in this is dual; first, only buy shares, options are for idiots and insiders (not really, but be prepared to lose everything in calls and puts). Second, demand legislative action ensuring transparency in the free market and preventing money laundering through firms at foreign banks. It is of this authors opinion that the country Cayman Islands is too underdeveloped to have the sophisticated and mature banks of Cayman Islands. This particular SPAC's history is irrelevant, and an investigation into the CEO and business creation dealings is a little painful, but futile. The SPAC creator is heavily linked to Romney's Bain Capital and a larger number of ill-repute market participants. These issues will get resolved over the next few months and years as the investor population rotates and the bull market is able to take hold. SRNG had a huge PIPE transaction, raised a lot of money and brought on investors like ARK. Now, the institutional holders have a great mix of the who's who of stock manipulation, list of great contenders for world's biggest hedgefund meltdown, and the secretive, always morally ambiguous, and often corrupt, Swiss. whalewisdom.com www.nasdaq.com There are legitimately great investors, especially of the recent buyers (not D.E. Shaw, they are evil). But the most telling names, are the ones absent. The big three bulls, Vanguard, BlackRock and Fidelity (has <100k) are no where to be seen. This could be great news as it lets investors get in before the big bulls, or it could be a sign of turbulence to come and these, and other infamous bulls, are waiting for some incoming drop. It is also possible that these institutions have not bought in as the merger has not finalized, and it is still in it's SPAC phase. Of note, there are an extremely high amount of $10 calls spread over the coming months, and with an open PIPE, nearly unlimited shares to sell, and a market that could see high level liquidations, it is more likely that SRNG will have a significant drop than a big increase in price. That isn't to say there won't be a fair share of volatility first, these groups want to sell as many calls as they can for as obscene a price as they can, expecting impulse waves to build up that market is fairly reasonable. This isn't an attempt to dissuade the reader from investing now, it is a fair analysis of the risks and benefits that a dive into the pool can bring, but it is an absolute dissuasion from playing options with SRNG. If anything, this author views investors buying shares now as the best thing that could happen to Ginkgo. As the healthier retail investors, and institutions, come in and buy up shares, there is less footing for more manipulative members to come in. Furthermore, as the company hits more and more milestones and increased successes, more and more shares will be swallowed by perma-holders, leaving a smaller pool to fight over. This will not become a problem anytime soon as SPACs are open PIPEs, meaning the chance of a short squeeze or dwindling share pool for SRNG is remote. www.prnewswire.com www.jstor.org publish.illinois.edu www.albanylaw.edu www.placementtracker.com Bull Theory ARK may be the modern Queen of pump and dumps, but their analysts get it right more than wrong, and they are great at social market making. Ginkgo is doing an excellent job of that itself as well. While it might not take decades for Ginkgo's meteoric rise, it is doubtful to be straight up. They may not have the same difficulty as other companies in showing the investor-base their potential, the market is already willing, but they still have to show a long term success. The biosecurity program is cute, and shows the true potentiation of spread by their management's philosophy, but at their core, Ginkgo Bioworks is a synthetic biology company and if they do not have a profitable and start to finish market on it, they will not join the highest end ranks. The success with Cronos and Aldevron are cute, but they aren't what Ginkgo needs to show what they are. Drawing market psychology comparisons to Tesla, it took Tesla a long time to get to such high market capitalization and most of that is because of the bear investor base. Most Bulls buy their stake and leave it. Bears are vicious and constantly attack. While it is easier to sell, it is safer to buy. Short selling drops the price, but it creates another shareholder who buys it looking to sell it for more than they bought it for. While the short seller can find more and more shares to short, whether real or phantom, those shares find homes. In Tesla's case, short sellers sold more and more shares, and expected Tesla to bankrupt or to offer more shares to fill it. Skipping the more intimate detailed logistics of why the short sellers ultimately failed here, an active participant in that process was Citadel. This author believes Citadel is using its ability to create phantom shares (synthesize for the nerds), and offering them to short sellers, without short selling them themselves. Leveraging their buying capacity, and ability to create catalytic market events usually used for shorting, and their algorithms for High Frequency Trading, they cause massive impulses up in the price. This is the pump part of the pump and dump scheme. However, that setup took years and a contentious CEO like Elon Musk, and very greedy market participants who are unlikely to try the same thing over, or surely they wouldn't… As the SEC continues to be reined in under public pressure, and if Congress ever gives them the legislative tools to do their job, and create tighter rail-guards for the market, smaller investor holdings will gain their respect as the scope of their full wealth is understood. To this end, Ginkgo reaching out and establishing an investor base now that don't care about the short term, leads to much better long term bull outcomes. The company has already shown its ability to survive, rotating into COVID in a meaningful and economic way, and the market potentiation for synthetic biology is real, the only thing left is for them to start dropping hits. Investors looking to make rotations through an unclear market capitalization in the short term will give way to investors looking to be a part of the mammoth of synthetic biology as small successes keep getting notched in, but true liftoff should not happen without a more comprehensive project success. To this regard, Ginkgo has room in any portfolio, whether as a long term moonshot, a medium term embrace of market growth, or a short term reconciliation between the current channel and true market opinion. Bear Theory Ginkgo has a brilliant road ahead, but their initial market capitalization leaves little upside when trying to break into something brand new. While every analyst under the sun can proclaim Ginkgo a buy, if investors still aren't sure what they are buying and how the road up looks, the path will be volatile. Of course volatility is playable and profitable, leaving the regular crew plenty of space to distort price discovery within gamma squeezes and market maker channels. Perhaps in this line options are already available despite a lifespan of months on the ticker. Options are usually a trap for retail, allowing more for manipulation than profitable options chains. Overall, the long term plan of Ginkgo is sound; partner with as many groups as possible, work on their projects risk free, rinse and repeat while developing homegrown profits. However, if Ginkgo is unable to succeed in little more than making weed after several years of rotating through projects, do not be surprised if the market retracts and they are forced to slim down. Making themselves the team player with all the skills and tools is a great way to start, but showing that they can close the game will be the biggest difference maker. On top of all of this, the wealth of synthetic biology research is largely trapped inside Academic labs, allowing a viable competitor to be raised without too much of a stretch. Plenty of lists exist with potential competitors, ranging from small startups like Zymergen (whose recent string of failures are both a warning sign, and a positive indication of Ginkgo's strengths as they had a crisis of confidence and high level turnover), hedgefunds trying their hands at science (company unlisted for reasons), and perhaps the big bad biotechs like Agilent. The truth is that none of these are in any place better than Ginkgo, none of them have proprietary information that might put them ahead, but nothing is really stopping any of these from moving ahead amid one good rotation through a crisis. Perhaps the greatest weapon against Ginkgo will be their investor base. While not too many companies aim to bring on the wrath of Reddit, Ginkgo rolled right in, dropped some memes, dropped some knowledge, and left their calling card in an AMA. Ginkgo knows it needs to be at the front of the conversations around how the public sees synthetic biology, the risk of it turning into the organics nonsense is a little too great to allow public discussion to go on un-moderated. Furthermore, they believe they can utilize this investor base to be loyal, and intelligent, and this author agrees. However, there will come a point when this investor base is used against them, manipulative quacks on social media have been taking advantage of the silence, and desperation among retail investors for decades in a move that mimics boiler rooms of old. How Ginkgo is able to dance with these "shills", and how they are able to spin through negative events and downtime in between major catalytic events, will show how successful they can be with this business strategy. Perhaps in some suite, it makes sense that their investor relations is there staff, and that the company spending money, time and human resources in art, writing, news, and education, is going to give them something competitive similar to Tesla's use of their investor base. In this regard, Memestocks gaining 600+ P/E is akin to Amazon/Apple gaining such high P/E's with favourability from institutional investors, and it shifts Tesla from being abnormal, to a model image for the public company. www.owler.com www.reddit.com Disclaimer Thank you for your time, I truly value it and hope that this brings value to it. This analysis is not to serve as primary financial advice, rhyme or reason. This work is to serve as an editorialized overview of the parts and pieces of the investment, as well as the different ways this author analyzes it. As of the date of publication, 8/23/2021, this author has 2 shares of $SRNG, primarily to get Fidelity's newsfeed. This author is extremely bullish on Ginkgo, with plans of significant investment in $DNA. As the primary purpose of this article is to be informative of the company, the stock market, and relevant market mechanics, please feel free to ask any questions. Thank you.
SLong
by DoctorFaustus
6
ARKG - Narrowing TriangleI see a narrowing triangle. Triangles we love especially squeezed ones with a bit of consolidation visible. I will not enter from point 1. First we need to observe bounce back from 1 and rejection at point 2 so basically one more touch on each sides of the triangle. If that occurs, I will start opening position on point 3. we see 2 influential figures coming head to head. Burry & Cathie. Although Burry is more on Tesla bubble, still these kind of names have an overall impact on whole ARK etfs. Thread carefully, my thoughts on Burry`s stance is a bit low. Yes the total market is high, yes the run after covid has been very steep but if you open a short position for that long (>1 year) eventually at one point you will see a correction. So without giving a timeline, it is easy to say there will be a market crash. Every 18 - 24 months, SnP 500 does more than %15 downwards correction. That correction might be %20-25 on ARKK. This does not mean you are right. If you say in Q3 21 I expect that crash/correction, and it happens then yes you are right. Timing is the most important thing.
CBOE:ARKG
by S5_Trading_Desk
NVTA - Gap needs to be filledBack in June 20, NVTA jumped up rather spectacularly and since late Jan 21, bears are beating it down. 24.90 was a critical point but we crashed it down and due to Jun 20 pump up, we are right now in the vacuum between a solid support of 15 and 25. 20 was a resistance in the past, we don`t know whether it will work as a support but my main point is that this gap between 15-25 needs to be filled. There will be a consolidation period and I hope it will be over 20. Considering more and more people bet against Cathie Wood which is heavily behind NVTA, I will treat this with caution. I would like to see 20 work as a support at least once to start opening position or starting averaging down. Long term, yes but in the next couple of weeks, we might see a bit more downward pressure
N
by S5_Trading_Desk