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Cattle

How 'bout them Apples... Or Corn, Cattle, Cotton, Gold, Coffee. Based on my analysis I see commodities markets offering investors above average returns heading into the next decade. During the expansion of our economy from 2008, prices in the commodity market have been fairly low and producing dismal returns. This is ranging from several factors such as energy prices falling, subsidized farming, the price of precious metals collapsing, and even cyclical trends. Which we will cover later... Investing in commodities can be difficult because it covers a range of different industries not just one. Often time commodities are broken down into two groups: Hard Commodities (Gold, Silver, Rubber, Crude oil, etc.) these types of commodities are often mined or extracted from our beautiful earth. Soft commodities on the other hand are usually grown (Coffee, oranges, corn, wheat, sugar. Soybeans, etc.) Because commodities range from different sources it makes capitalizing on the investment tricky due of the prices fluctuation of goods (i.e. sugar may go up while, oil prices decline.) However, there is one indicator that can help gauge the movement of all commodities classes and that’s inflation. Inflation effects all good that can be purchase on the market, not just one- therefore leading to a rise in commodities as a whole. As a consumer, who likes inflation? When the price of goods rise it can severely dampen ones pay check. Unless, you shop at Whole Foods then you are screwed at the register before and after inflation. If you’re an investor in commodities on the other hand, rising inflation can be advantageous as one would expect a higher return as the prices of consumer goods rise. Taking a glance at the chart, we can see over the past decade as inflation began its accent from 2008 the rise in the commodity index has done the same. It is also worth noting, this is NOT a default action, but more often than none- throughout history commodity prices have moved well alongside inflation. Another factor to consider is the current administration’s stance on trade and protectionism. Bringing back jobs from overseas into the United States will definitely increase the prices of goods because of the higher production cost state side. Again- great for commodity investors and producers, bad for the overall economic well-being. As I mentioned earlier, price cycles can also play a larger role when looking to invest in commodities. Though it is heavily debated on whether cycles hold any merit in commodities-we have seen the price of commodities rise and fall at precise time intervals. Through my research I've noticed Commodity prices usually move in 10 to 15-year price cycles. The Peaks and troughs of prices have been fairly consistent and are set to gain ground in 2018. However, super cycles in commodities are nearly 50 years long and we are also seeing both short and long term cycles harmonize. Usually in this occurrence we see a sharp uptick in commodity prices that end up lasting for decades. Name one thing that can get up that fast after 50 years…I’ll wait. While there this is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to complex markets such as commodities. We believe there is empirical evidence that tells us now is the time for this asset class.
AMEX:DBC
by gardua24
Live Cattle Elliott Wave Idea Live Cattle futures appear to be coming to and end of a multi year correction phase. If WXY completed at $94.6 then the motive phase may already have begun, however, if the $130 highs seen during 2017/18 were just X2 of WXYXZ then price may fall further; in WXYXZ Z must be equal or longer than X2 which suggests a double bottom at $94.6. Some details on the waves: Wave 1; appears to be a leading diagonal > An ending diagonal for wave 5 of 5 (of 1) > The big WXYXZ; made up of multiple 3 wave (ABC) structures >
CME:LE1!
by Joseph_King
LIVE CATTLE futures . Long on retracementLive Cattle -0.04% prices tend to follow clear trends , as can be seen by the descending channel from 2015 to 2017 (almost 2 years) Options expiration is February 28. I will look for support on the current parallel or retracement to the lower parallel for a long entry. Stop below previous low and take profit at 25 centile. Depending on price action I may keep the trade open and move stop up to 25 centile. Possible trades are outlined. I would become bearish if price falls below the lower parallel
CME:LE1!Long
by a1Keith
LIVE CATTLE - Finding a bottomIn the chart above I've plotted average cattle prices since February of 1980. I found that a 30 year view is typically enough to see the big picture in a market. Prices closed today (9/6/16) nearly exactly at par, which has been a major level since 2003. From its all time low (53.xx in July 1985) to its peak (170.xx on Nov 2014), the .618% retracement sits at about $98 per cwt. Since Feb 1980 price has never declined over 30% (avg major peak to major trough was about 28%). Since Q4 of 2014 price has declined 40%, so by all standards this is considered a somewhat rare decline in price. Though, given how high prices have gone, it is far from out of the ordinary to see a decline of this magnitude or greater. This recent price action is reminiscent of oil in January/February. My thought is we'll see a bottom somewhere between 96 - 88. 88 seems more likely. I am going long with low leverage at 96 if price action signals a long on the short term chart. I am going long at 89 with an automatic buy order regardless of the short term price action. Oil is the chart above - Live cattle is the chart below Source for data: www.investing.com
CME:LE1!Long
by Lanmar
Live cattle - Let the bears take control of the cattle, short.HA candles to make the PA clearer. PA is in clean downward pitchfork and is nicely oscillating between the upper and lower areas. PA is about to cross the Ichi cloud which could be the start of a short trade. However the lagging span still has some layers to go through before being free. This could occur within the blue ellipse area. Note the lower support within the pitchfork that could prevent the PA from reaching the lower prong. This is where the TP can take place. Some fundamentals: www.agweb.com Some news that could maintain the price flat during the cloud traversal: www.agweb.com
CME:LE1!Short
by albert.callisto