Chubb Stock Jumps After Buffett's Berkshire Reveals $6.7B StakeChubb shares ( NYSE:CB ) jumped over 8% in late trade on Wednesday after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $6.7 billion stake in the Zurich-based insurer. Buffett recently told shareholders that property-casualty insurance provides the core of Berkshire's well-being and growth. Berkshire had been building its position in Chubb since 2023, but had not previously disclosed the stake after the SEC granted it permission to keep the holding confidential.
Berkshire's stake of nearly 26 million shares in Chubb ( NYSE:CB ), one of the world's largest publicly traded property-casualty insurers, had a market value of around $6.7 billion as of March 31, making it the conglomerate's nineth largest holding. The investment is driven by Berkshire's heavy footprint in the insurance industry, which Buffett recently told shareholders that "property-casualty insurance" provides the core of Berkshire's well-being and growth.
The stock has continued to track higher since bottoming out in June last year, with the trend gathering momentum after the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day MA to form a bullish golden cross signal. Recently, the stock has traded within an ascending triangle, indicating a continuation of the longer-term uptrend.
Moreover, Chubb ( NYSE:CB ) has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71.75 which is overbought hence, a trend reversal might lurk in the corners.
CB
CB is a good buy stock for long term investors For the investors who look for long-run performance, this is for you.
Chubb Limited, incorporated in Zürich, Switzerland, is a global provider of insurance products covering property and casualty, accident and health, reinsurance, and life insurance and the largest publicly traded property and casualty company in the world.
The insurance sector is the best opportunity for long-term investing especially for a global company like Chubb.
By reviewing the company profile we noticed:
The net income for the last 3 years was :
(8,816B for 2021) ( 3,533B for 2020) (4,454B for 2019) ( 3,962B for 2018)
Year over year ratio YOY %:
+149.53% for 2021
-20.68% for 2020
+12.42% for 2019
EBIT:
(10,515 B for 2021) ( 4,678 B in 2020 ) ( 5,801 B in 2019) (5,298 B in 2018)
Year over year ratio YOY % :
+124.77% in 2021
-19.36% in 2020
+9.49 % in 2019
Free Cash Flow 11,093B for 2021
9,785B for 2020
6,342B for 2019
5,480B for 2018
Cash Flow incresing rate
13.36% in 2021
54.28% in 2020
15.73% in 2019
for the assets
Total assets & Debt
199,054 B for 2021 with 15,131 B (Debt)
190,774 B for 2020 with 15,256 B (Debt)
176,943 B for 2019 with 13,867 B (Debt)
167,771 B for 2018 with 12,395 B (Debt)
Debt-to-assets ratio %:
7.60% for 2020
8.00% for 2020
7.84% for 2020
7.39% for 2020
Top Institutional Holders
Holder ---------------------Shares------------- Date Reported ---------% Out -------------Value
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) : 35,555,260 Sep 29, 2021 7.90% 6,168,126,504
Wellington Management Group, LLP: 28,179,660 Sep 29, 2021 6.26% 4,888,607,416
Blackrock Inc ^ : 27,411,957 Sep 29, 2021 6.09% 4,755,426,300
Capital International Investors ^:22,357,084 Sep 29, 2021 4.97% 3,878,506,932
State Street Corporation ^ :22,003,925 Sep 29, 2021 4.89% 3,817,240,909
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Final view
The net income is increasing annually with a high ratio
EBIT is increasing with a high ratio
The cash flow increasing ratio is high
Asset value increased over the years
The debt ratio is low which is a good sign
Chubb Limited is a good buy stock for long term investors
For the position:
Buy limit on 190$ -185$ area
Buy limit at 157$ -163$ area
buy limit at 140 $ -143 $ area in case the price makes a strong move against our position
Targets:
Take profit every 50% profit
We expect to see a continuous increase in CB stock
Chubb has been oversold on news. Buy This Dip?I have changed up how to best display projected movement. In the case of CB, 1 of my algorithms signaled a BUY on March 22, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move up, but sometimes it may continue to move down first.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 3 Hour chart after a BUY signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement downward before the stock finally moved upward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement downward, before the stock moved upward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential bottom in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final top.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could rise the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never rise (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
US Inflation, damage to the global economy & PM BorisAccording to The Economist, the trade war between the United States and China has already caused the global economy irreparable damage, disrupting the supply chain that had been creating for several decades. The point is that, there are a lot of Chinese companies have found the way of delivery of goods to the United States. For instance, across Vietnam. The scheme is very simple: the label “Made in Vietnam” is glued to Chinese goods and the goods are sold in the United States without the additional costs associated with duties. The downside of this was the destruction of the old logistics chains, and the creation of new ones, apart from the general riskiness, requires additional costs.
As proof of the damage, the information has been given as an example that the current business cycle is ending. Since the crisis in 2008, the world economy has gone through a very long period of recovery, and the business cycle usually enters a recession phase every decade. This assumption is confirmed by the data on exports from the developed countries, as well as exports from developed countries to other developed countries, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2009.
In general, it is worth preparing for the worst. In this regard, we recall that our recommendations are buying safe-haven assets.
It is worth noting yesterday's inflation data from the United States. Consumer inflation appeared below forecasts and reached the Fed target. This is quite an alarming signal for the dollar. Note, that the markets still believe that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged next week, but in a month in July, the US Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25% (the current probability of this event is more than 80%).
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has launched his campaign to get a post of Prime Minister. His main slogan is "Brexit at any price". This is an alarming signal for the pound, because "at any price" includes a no-deal Brexit. In this case, the consequences for the UK economy as a whole and the pound, in particular, could be unpredictable.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the US dollar sales against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
Trade war price, short dollar and Bank of CanadaTuesday turned out to be another quiet day. So, we have time to talk about global things. For instance, about the possible price of a trade war for the United States, China and the world as a whole. The fact is that trade wars have been discussed often, almost constantly, but at the same time, some things are sounded as self-evident without any refinements to detail.
Therefore, today we would like to talk about the price of trade wars. In the end, this problem will be solved until the end of this month (the meeting of the United States and China leaders at the G-20 summit), and the losses are already taking place now.
So, economists at Bloomberg Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik analyzed the main scenarios of a trade war and its consequences. Their main conclusion is: if tariffs spread to all trading process between the USA and China, then global GDP will lose about $ 600 billion by 2021. By the way, this year will be a peak in terms of losses from trade wars.
If tariffs turn out to be at current levels, in a couple of years China’s economy will lose 0.5% growth as well as the United States - 0.2%. If tariffs are distributed to all groups of goods, then China will lose 0.8% of economic growth, the USA will lose 0.5%, just like the world as a whole.
So, the trade war is, indeed, a key aspect for the modern global economy. No wonder its is paid so much attention by markets and analysts.
Meanwhile, Brandywine Global Investment Management LLC. - an investment fund with $ 72 billion of assets – is predicting the end of the dollar rally. The reason is that the United States will agree with China: the damage from trade wars is too high for both sides. In addition, a trade war hurts US consumer, and setting people up against, on the eve of the US Presidential election, is the last thing Trump wants to do.
Returning to the current situation in the financial markets and the news background, we note that the main event of the environment will be the results announcement of the Bank of Canada meeting. The rate is likely to remain unchanged. We also are not waiting for aggressive comments from the Central Bank - it is not the time to show aggression. Trade war escalation is more than a serious reason to continue to pause. Despite the fact that we do not expect a hawkish position from the Bank of Canada, we believe that the current price of USDCAD is simply excellent in terms of its sales. So, we recommend today to look for points for its sales. In general, you need to sell about 1.35. We place stops above 1.3550, and put profits at the bottom 1.33.
The rest of our trading positions have not changed: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Worst record of pound, Fed, dollar growth & drop in price of oilEscalation of a trade war has led not only to concerns expansion about global economic growth, but also to a fall in the rates of developing countries’ currencies. Since quotation mainly goes against the dollar, it has become an unwitting beneficiary because of this. The correlation between the dynamics of the dollar and the currencies of developing countries reached a maximum value. So the dollar reigned on its throne again. Given the current US attack on China’s technology sector (just yesterday, Huawei also received 5 more Chinese technology companies from the US Government), analysts at Nordea Investment Funds are expecting the dollar to strengthen further in the foreign exchange market, especially against the currencies of developing countries. However, our position goes contrary to the above. We believe that the dollar climbed too high, and will continue to look for points for its intraday and medium-term sales.
The pound, however, is continuing to experience serious difficulties. Against the euro , the dollar is experiencing the longest series of falls in history. May confidently goes to her fourth defeat in an attempt to approve a contract test in Parliament. According to current information, the date of voting is scheduled for June 3. But the pressure on May is increasing also many people are no longer sure that she will generally hold out at the helm before the voting, let alone after its results.
Despite a more than obvious fundamental negative, it seems like current prices are already interesting enough to begin the first round of medium-term buying. This is a long game, so you need to be prepared to endure several hundred accumulated losses and periodically average position. But in the end, of course, in our opinion, the transaction should gild or, at least, significantly increase the financial result.
The motivation for buying is still the same – “rigid” Brexit, that markets are being discounted for, is an extremely unlikely option, which means that the markets got caught up in selling pounds and went below its fair value, especially in the case of the most gate-breaking outcomes of Brexit: the parties either agree, or a repeated referendum will generally remove this issue from the agenda.
The minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting were published yesterday. Representatives of the Central Bank announced that their "patient" approach will remain relevant for some time. That is, the pause is delayed.
As for other news and macroeconomic statistics, inflation in the UK is slightly lower than expected, but markets are not interesting at, for now, so no conclusions can be made about this. Retail sales in Canada came out better than expected and only strengthened our desire to look for points for buying the Canadian dollar.
About the oil , perfectly fulfilled our sales recommendations yesterday. The formal reason for the start of sales of steel data from the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the US, which increased by 4.74 million barrels over the week (the markets were preparing for reduction by 1.7 million barrels). Recall, we recommend medium- term and intraday sales of oil .
Thursday promises to be quite a busy day in terms of macroeconomic statistics. First of all, we pay attention to the indicators of business activity in Europe and the USA, as well as the state of the real estate market in the USA.
Our trading positions today are as follows: we are looking for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar , sales of oil and the Russian ruble , as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen .
The Eve of RiskOur Second Idea on Tradingview
=> Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions.
=>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April.
=>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play.
=>We are choosing Gold as the perfect asset class to trade this as we expect some mild profit taking from Dollarbulls
=>Gold long @1227| TP1 1260 | TP2 1305 | STP LOSS 1208
=>In the background we also have EZ and US inflation numbers mid week, both expected inline providing further pull factors to Gold
=>Good Luck all
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC Bat+AB=CD+Gartley Daily ChartVery harmonic stock, first bat pattern start at July, which completes and reverses nicely in Oct. The D point of the first Bat Pattern forms the C point in AB=CD. D point reversal also forms the X leg of the second Bat Pattern of which the A point completes where AB=CD, and sharply reverses. Price reverses off the .886XA in the Gartley Pattern which Fibonacci highlighting areas for TPs.
Any comments/Criticisms??
EURAUD: Looking for a Bearish RunIf we end up getting a LLLC here on the EURAUD, my prediction for the next place that we'd see some buying pressure at is down at the 1.5050's-1.4950's level.
As a buyer, that's where I would look next if I'm interested in trying to catch a pullback. If I'm a seller, then I'm looking for a retest of previous structure & a chance to hop on the downward move in anticipation of the level mentioned above.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst & Head Trading Coach
www.TradeEmpowered.com -The Premier Online Trading Education Company
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GBPNZD Scenarios1) AB=CD pattern completion at 1.1960 (1st chance to short)
2) Possible BAT patttern at the same level -also a DT (2nd chance to short)
3) Break of 1st minor trend line (3rd chance to short)
4) Break and retest the mayor trend line - We are in an uptrend so maybe the pair to check the mayor trend line and continue upward
Each trading setup has different rules about the TP targets and SL so make sure you follow them