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CBI

Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 04] Quick update on the CBI. So far this indicator has helped us to navigate the current cycle bottom pretty well. For the current forecast to work out, the scenario I could see playing out is as follows: * Bulls push price up to the daily order block to put in a decent Monthly Close. This would also keep the adjusted long growth curve model intact (shown as the light green zone in the chart). * Bear push price back down early June. We put in a lower low on in price and a higher low in RSI on the daily, giving use our Bull Div (Bullish Divergence) NOTE: I have built this indicator with the same tolerance as the CTI, Cycle Top Indicator (i.e. 3 days). Potential Path is shown by the Purple Path arrow. From a Technical Analysis point of view, sweeping the lows into the supply zone of the 18th of June dump wick would make sense (as bears look to attack bull stops before going long themselves). It is interesting to note the following at our current local bottom at ~USD$17,592K: * Hit the S2 Pivot on the Daily * Hit the M-Buy (Macro Buy on the Over Bought / Sold MAs indicator) It is worth noting we hit the M-Buy oversold signal multiple times in December 2018 during the 2018 cycle bottom. Obviously we are tracking this indicator performance for entertainment purposes only. Risk management should be applied at all times with your investment strategy and no one input should be used when developing your investment decisions. Good luck and stay safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
BTC Cycle Bottom - Bearish Liquidation Scenario ConsiderationsHi All, I thought I would do a quick post this Sunday night I have been meaning to do for the last week or so to cover the bearish scenarios and max possible bearish scenarios I think may be possible for BTC current thinking is proven incorrect. My current thought process for a potential new cycle bottom for BTC follows my reasoning in the below charts. Will be fun to see how wrong or right this is as we track close to activating the CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicator). The above providing invalid with the LOG support lines and we do not hold the 300W SMA levels; the risk in the market as I see it for Btc is with the significant leveraged positions whales will find it hard to resist not to target. See some FUD on this topic below. fortune.com If liquidation levels are hit, I do expect volatility and may see some COVID / may 2021 price action volatility. This would provide an amazing opportunity for Whales (and the like) to scope up some BTC at high volumes and low slippage on exchanges. However, such volatilities will make it hard to know at what price range the next accumulation range will sit over the short run. For this scenario, BTC will be historically in uncharted waters in terms of where it has been on many metrics in terms of over sold. We have no other inputs at these low levels to go by other the confluence of TA and market structure. The chart in this post looks at market structure, Order Block Support over the Daily (Blue), Weekly (Orange) and Monthly (Orange), and Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) from the COVID bottom, Cycle bottom and our 2017 ATH (All Time High) , and the FIB from the COVID bottom to our Cycle ATH (on the log chart settings for price). I have done this analysis on the BINANCE BTC UTC chart as this has very good volume representation of the market. Key Confluence levels which may hold up as support in a liquidation panic dump are shown in Navy Blue * ~USD$19,798.68 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$16,474.49 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$13,670 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$11,820 MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT * ~USD$9,157 MAX PAIN - (CME GAP bottom 9630 to 9,157) - MARKET STRUCTURE SUPORT MAX PAIN levels would close the CME GAP at the ~$9,630 levels. GAP Boys from 2020 may finally be happy if big money can push markets down to these levels (would be a crazy ride). See below chart for a supporting post explaining CME BTC Futures GAPS NOTE: FRVP represents the volume of traded BTC for the horizontal price over the selected range. The longer the gray bar, the more volume traded at that price level over the selected range. Price generally respect levels of high FRVP.
by Brodie
CME Future GAPThis chart has been developed for use in supplement posts. CME chart reflects the futures treading for BTC derivatives (see link before for more information). www.cmegroup.com CME Futures allowed a lot of investors money to now short the asset. CME Futures like other 'traditional' assets close their markets over the weekend and operate Monday to Friday (Shown as Thursday to Sunday corresponding to my Time Frame in Australia). A 'CME GAP' for the purposes of this post refers to the 'GAP' which often forms with the Friday close and Monday open price of CME Futures, due to BTC (like other cryptocurrencies) continuing to trade over the weekend. 'Big Money' in Futures Markets are 'Speculated' to drive the BTC price to cover positions when big gaps form at the Monday Close. In this post, we referee to a GAP being closed when the price of BTC drops through the gap price, allowing these positions to be 'closed' at break even if large short positions have been created and the price rises. See below Legend with reference with this chart: * Red Rectangle: CME GAP yet to be closed * Yellow Rectangle: CME GAP partially closed * Green Rectangle: CME GAP closed Historically, since CME BTC Futures began operations around the time of BTC 2017 bull top in in December 2017, all CME GAPs have been close. This has held true up until the 2021 Bull run where CME gaps post July have left many only partially filled and some open. The questions now as BTC searches for a new bottom and big money are hunting over leveraged positions and pools of liquidity is will these gaps have their day and fully fill or will btc leave these gaps partially filled for ever and we will not see BTC at these prices again? Significant CME gap close prices awaiting to be closed: * July 2020 - ~USD$9,615 * October 2020 ~USD$11,110 * October 2020 ~USD$11,110 * November 2020 ~USD$16,925 * December 2020 ~USD$18,020
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart & Historic Bottom AnalyThis post looks at the following items to assess BTC possible upcoming cycle accumulation ranges, next cycle bottom and historic lowest price possible: * Cycle Bottom Indicator & CBI Extensions * Log Chart key support and resistance levels * 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support * Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone * 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range. CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs). GOLDEN BOX As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference. GREEN BOX The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference. LOG CHART The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 02]A quick update relating to our previous post. BTC has continued its trend to quickly drop to the 200W SMA once it has broken the 600D SMA and we are now in our Golden Box accumulation zone between the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA with potential to drop down to the green box and visit the 300W SMA. If our 'BTC - Historic Over Bought / Sold MAs' indicators holds true, then we are more likely to visit the 300W SMA than hold at the 200W SMA. The first test of the Cycle Bottom Indicator (CBI) is aligning with potential TA support targets if the MA's continue on their current path. The custom Fear and Greed indicator on the daily is heading toward dark red undervaluation territory, historically aligning with cycle bottoms. The % undervaluation from the 200D & 600D moving averages are both in the green zone, aligning with cycle bottom territory. There are also other Macro time frame indicators such as the Stochastic RSI, RSI, MACD and on chain metrics which are aligning with conditions which have resulted in past cycle bottoms. For fun, I have overplayed the 2017 market cycle bottom for a scenario where we accumulate and find out bottom at the 300W SMA. Keen to here your thoughts (comment below).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
ridethepig | ILS Market Commentary 2020.04.29The first 3.50 test triggered development from the Bank of Israel, it shows how quickly the zone can be protected and the tables are turned. Intervention is clear, smelling it a mile off here and makes the short-term opportunity towards the highs an attractive option. When the CB like Israels comes out to say that the currency has gone too far and they wont hesitate to step in... you know the swing that follows from that will illustrate the use of fundamentals in particularly striking fashion. The attack on EM FX raises the stakes; because we have the second iteration of the virus to come in the Southern Hemisphere and another leg lower to track in Global Equities. We can keep an ear to the ground on local Israeli politics, without any surprises a leg back towards the top in the range looks imminent. Will look to dial back below 3.50. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts, questions and etc coming!
Long
by ridethepig
2
My Take On Chicago Bridge Elliott Wave MovementsEverything looks upward moving for CBI. Although a test came for dropping below the bottom at 12.10 on April 23, the bleeding stopped at 12.12. I believe the stock is currently in: Grand Supercycle: 1 Supercycle: 5 Cycle: 1 Primary: 3 Intermediate: 1 Minor: 3 Minute: 3 This chart displays my projected path through end of August 2018. The chart below is the projected movement through May 7. The chart below is the projected movement thorugh May 21. I will continue to monitor this movement as I am long with exit plans around August-September 2018. My ultimate target is 31.00 by September. Also expect 24.00 before end of July.
CLong
by StockSignaler
Breaking Down CBI Wave 3Currently CBI has just begun the important wave 3. Based on the statistics observed during the current overall Grand Supercycle Wave (white roman numerals), our current wave 3 will most likely end around 31.41 around the end of August 2018. This will provide massive gains if buying stock and even larger ones with call options. The solid yellow lines represent the average levels observed throughout the Grand Supercycle. The average Fibonacci Extension from Wave 1 is 105.78% which is move to at least 22.66. The average days observed for a wave 3 coincides with the end of August 2018. The median Extension is 177%, and 176.4% is a Fibonacci number so this area is why I believe the movement should go at least here by the end of August. I have arrived at the solid red lines when the standard deviation is applied (added) to the average of the days elapsed and Fibonacci Extension percentages.
CLong
by StockSignaler
1
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) Could Be In For YUUGE GainsChicago Bridge & Iron Company has been in a long bearish trend since 2014. On multiple occasions through this trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar or lower levels, than they are now. These instances have resulted in nice short-term gains for the stock. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may gain while it most likely continues its long-term trend. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 23.5869. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI oversold. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.6590 and the negative is at 1.2802. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The negative value is high, meaning the stock has been moving down, however, it is trending downward. This means the stock has ended its downward trend and should begin to move up soon. The stochastic oscillator K value is 11.3245 and D value is 11.1765. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is oversold. The D value is below the K and the stock is beginning to move up. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria which culminates in an oversold or overbought alert. That signal will occur over the next two days. The only thing holding this signal from going off now it continued gains in the stock. Because this signal will go off after continued gains, now is the best time to enter a position and take greater advantage of the pending upward movement. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled oversold status 18 times in the history of the stock. The stock gains at least 0.20% over the following 30 trading days after the indicator date. Eighty percent of the time, the stock gains 3.50% and seventy percent of the time gains 7.25%. In the history of this stock, it always gains a minimum of 1.88% when the negative VI conducts a double cross above its current level at the same time the RSI is at or below its current level. The additional study requires the stochastic to be oversold as it is today. Six similar occurrences were studied. The median gain for the stock is 10.18% and the gain takes a median of 6 trading days to occur. Four of these six instances occurred at the same time the SAG gauge determined the stock to be oversold. The minimum gain for these instances is 6.81% and the median gain is 11.70%. All of these statistical gains happen fast so anticipating the stock to go up and up is not recommended. The maximum movement for this stock could occur within the next 10-15 days. Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could gain at least 7% over the next 31 trading days if not sooner.
C
by StockSignaler