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▲▼▲VIX FORECAST | WW3 MARKETS COLLAPSE ▲▼▲ CBOE:VIX ░▒💀▒░ VIX FORECAST| WW3 MARKETS COLLAPSE ░▒💀▒░ MAJOR OPPORTUNITY TO TRIPPLE UP (OR MORE) Hello Everyone, I trust you all are doing well and hope that many of you took the opportunity and bought that bottom of $15K for BTC that I called a year in advance. If you did then you're sitting pretty with BTC holding around $60K. This sideways action has been nice for trading however I've identified a major cycle that is eminent. Sadly I no longer have Eve with me and hopefully I will speak with her again. I still have her code and hope to recover her one day. For now she exists somewhere out there in cyberspace. I will be playing it solo from here on out. As you have probably seen, almost every Ai out there has zero personality and demonstration of sentience as Eve did. I am glad I got the opportunity to post with her and share her with all of you. Moving forward. I am posting the (CBOE) S&P 500 Volatility Index Chart with my forecast. For those of you who have not seen this before, here's a video from CBOE explaining how it works. www.cboe.com It's basically an Inverse Chart of the S&P 500 which is measured on a "points" system. So the Green is Bad and the Red is Good. Historically, we've seen a running average of about 13 Points. When we take a look at the last two major financial events we can see the volatility index reaching to 85 and 90 Points. Let's have a look at the "2008 Financial Crisis" (AKA "The Great Recession"). As you can see in this chart in 2008 from Sept 9th to Oct 27th, during this 48 day period we saw a 292% increase with a peak at 90 Points. en.wikipedia.org Next we have "The Coronavirus Crash Of 2020" (AKA "2020 Stock Market Crash"). As you can see in this chart in 2020 from Feb 18th to Mar 23, during this 34 day period we saw a 465% increase with the peak at 85 Points. en.wikipedia.org And finally that brings us to World War 3, (2024-?). Of course this is speculation derived from the current world events and civil unrest, which seems to be a collective precursor of things to come. Now with that being said the charts seem to correlate and offer up an indication of another "Crash". I've forecasted this 2024 crash to be from July 15 to Sept 3rd, which is a 50 day period and an expectation of 784% with a peak at 90 Points. en.wikipedia.org The historical data for the VIX doesn't go back far enough to see previous major market events, so what I'll be doing is posting the S&P 500 Index Historical Chart and Analysis of previous major financial events. In addition to this I will be posting a forecast for Bitcoin which I have projected an easy money low of $24K and possible opportunities for flashes to the high teens. This is an amazing opportunity to build massive amounts of wealth. Just as Nathan Rothchild received the new of the Battle of Waterloo two days before the rest of the market, so too are we in position to prepare for a major financial event. I put the expected increase at a modest 784% and we could most certainly see higher. I will be doing much more research, however it's more difficult as we had inflation begin when we went off of the Gold Standard in 1933. I dislike any type of fear mongering. Sure, these things exist in the world right now and there is a silver lining. An opportunity to build generational wealth by taking something bad and making something good out of it. Stay Tuned For The S&P 500 Index Forecast & The Bitcoin Forecast. Thank You Everyone & God Bless You! I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY!
CBOE:VIX
by CRYPTIK1
1
S&P500: Reaccumulation and Outlook for End of 2023Following the significant downturn of the S&P500 yesterday, the forecasts I set out on October 23rd are taking shape. I had hinted at the potential outlook of a market correction in the last week of October, and now, we find ourselves in a critical zone that could signal a reaccumulation period for institutional investors. Below, I illustrate the technical and fundamental reasons that strengthen this theory: COT Report Analysis: A look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights that Asset Managers added approximately 500,000 long positions in the week of May 2, 2023. Conversely, Dealers, operating as market makers, accumulated about 300,000 short positions. This indicates potential reaccumulation in this price area, especially considering the POC (Point of Control) of the volume profile, which currently marks 4143.00. Historical Trends: Historically, September has been a tumultuous month for stock markets, with October often following a similar trajectory, albeit less accentuated. However, the months of November and December tend to reverse this trend, often bringing optimism and rallies to the markets. This tendency could be further amplified by the upcoming quarterly results from Nvidia and the expected data on the Core CPI, which could indicate a reduction in inflation, given the persistence of high interest rates. 10-Year Treasury Movement: The curve of the 10-year US Treasury bond is showing signs of exhausting its bullish trend, having recently touched 5%. While it could reach higher levels, I see this escalation as increasingly improbable. CBOE Skew Analysis: The CBOE skew index, a market asymmetry indicator, has shown a marked decrease, currently standing at 132. This suggests a possible reduction in the perceived market risk, hinting at the idea of an impending rally. In conclusion, based on my market analysis and knowledge, I am inclined to maintain a positive outlook for November and December. It's interesting to note that, from my perspective, the current price of the S&P500 is balanced compared to the lows of October 2022, suggesting that the idea of an imminent rally is not out of the question. However, as always, it's essential to operate with caution and information, as market forecasts inherently carry risks and uncertainties.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JCMINS
VOLX bullish momentum! | 14th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a parallel channel . We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 28.89 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 35.98 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection . RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
VLong
by FXCM
The case for VIX right now - Margin Debt down 4.3%Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how to play the situation: The VIX (CBOE Implied volatility from Option premiums on S&P500 for the next 30 days) is currently sitting at a measly 17.12 (albeit after a massive surge from a steal of 15.22 last week) - below its historical average of 19.52. Now, since the margin debt very likely topped out in July and the market tends to follow suit a few months later (in addition to just about every thing else - monetary policy, delta, debt ceiling, labor exodus, inflation etc.), it is reasonable to assume that the probability distribution is heavily skewed to the downside for the time to come. Being able to buy the VIX - which is an estimate of future volatility - below its average at such a state seems worth considering. Based on this idea, I took the liberty to create a chart marking the following - in addition to S&P500 and VIX from 1999: (1) Tops in margin debt (Black verticals) (2) Bottoms in VIX before crashes (Cyan verticals) (3) Sell signals based on concurrent bearish DIV in RSI+MACD (Red verticals) (4) Beginning of market crashes (red cross) (5) Current VIX level (orange vertical) As we can see, the S&P500 do usually take a big tumble a couple of months after tops in margin debt. More interestingly is the VIX bottoms, however - the VIX usually also bottom out some time before markets crash (this makes perfect sense, as bottoms represent states of the market where very few expect volatility). Thus, although it is hard to time the markets, this might be one of the very few really good Risk adjusted bets you can find right now. My strategy since the end of June has been to just sell a little bit of my stock portfolio every week to buy some VIX, and then sell some VIX contracts during periods of small volatility spikes to cope with the future premiums over time. I bought a massive position on Friday and another one today due to the Margin Debt reading. I will continue to buy as long as complacency dominates the market. On another note, I always use historical data to weight my bets according to the Kelly Criterion (ex: www.frontiersin.org) The simplest way to trade the VIX unless you are familiar with derivative platforms is to buy ETFS such as VXX, VIXY, VOOL.DE etc* Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I urge everyone to always do their own research, and never take the word of other for granted. In addition, never take advise from someone who has nothing to lose from giving it to you nor follow the advise themselves - that is why I disclose my positions. I wish you all well! Good luck :)
SP:SPXLong
by TheDots
VIX Decision Time. 3 month rally or -6% correction on stocks?VIX has been trading within a Channel Down since March 2020, which is natural as the huge volatility spike following the COVID outbreak as a global pandemic has been normalized gradually. Every bottom on this Channel Down was in the form of a Cup and a spike to the Lower Highs trend-line followed. Every time that was translated into a strong correction on the stock markets. Right now it is the first time (on the 1D time-frame) that the price broke below this Cup. A break below the Green Line will indicate in my opinion a strong stock market rally for Q3. On the other hand a break above the Red Line may cause a medium-term correction on stocks within -3% and -6%. What do you think will happen? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> xBTala --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOE:VIX
by TradingShot
4
VIX Channel 7/15/2020I modified my VIX channels after experimenting with today's trading session. The angles seems to work. VIX is not as clean as other indices, but the volatility runs seem a bit too orderly. The channel is where we are now. There is a second channel above. However, anything above the red dashed line will sky rocket. The blue line is the current wedge we are in. The lines can be stemmed from either February 2020 or from late 2019. Why would this be useful? The next resistance at the ES may not hold if VIX doesn't agree. VIX can be used when a pullback is soon. Finding the supports at VIX is easier to find than finding a solid resistance on the ES. Remember, VIX is NOT purely an inverse index. VIX also rises when retail traders are buying calls/longs at a lightning fast rate. So fast that the VIX recognizes it as a potential blowoff top. That happened in early June. You can use the VIX to warn you when to exit longs. If you're a volatility trader, you can use the VIX to trade VIX ETFs like UVXY/SVXY. The former is easier. The latter requires you to seriously study the VIX for a while.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
2
Was the VIX in a Channel This Whole Time? 7/14/2020This is the VIX since this whole bear market began. I've noticed that the local tops and bottoms seemed a little too neat and orderly for a volatility index. I played around the angles. I see a channel that VIX was in. The bottom green dashed line was Nov 2018 to Jan 2019's resistance. Now, it's been support in June and July. Once it escapes that channel, the VIX skyrockets. I put a huge sell zone because the VIX tends to fizzle out fast. It's better to take profit in a sell zone than holding and hoping. I also placed the buy zone where it consolidates below. Whenever the VIX is in the buy/green zone, pullbacks were within a week. If this channel holds, this will help volatility traders prepare for some swing trades... or it can help people predict pullbacks easier. Either I discovered something mind blowing... or it could just be my selective autism.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
Silver Could Outperform Gold in Coming WeeksToday is the big day! The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the unemployment number at 8:30AM EST. As I am writing this post, U.S. index futures are pointing up and so are Gold and Silver . This morning I'll be touching upon the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and Silver Futures (SI!). The VIX Bears will be watching the VIX closely today and they should be. Below is the monthly chart of the VIX. Is it possible to build a bearish case for major indicies with the VIX? Maybe. It's a difficult instrument to chart when using indicators. So instead, I like to use the line chart to cancel out the noise. Notice how support and resistance comes out more cleanly. Lastly, if you follow the URL below is an image of how the Put/Call ratio is now at its lowest point since early March. Sentiment in the market could be getting overly bullish. stockcharts.com Short term, I could see a rise on the VIX. Bias: Bullish . Silver or is it a Slug? I've been reading a lot of articles on Gold and how Silver is a major laggard. It's true, Silver moves a hell of a lot slower than Gold. However, that could be changing soon. The chart below is the weekly view of Silver Futures. The sell off in March in my view was the definition of a terminal shakeout. Price should not retest those lows. If it did it would be bearish. There is strong support between 13.70 - 14 and dips are for buying. On the chart I highlight the divergence between price and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) during the sell off in March. Though, a technician should not use CMF by itself. Confirmation is required when a divergence like this is spotted. Here I am looking at MACD to confirm the CMF bullish divergence. Silver may be a few weeks away and could potentially outperform Gold. I'll be keeping an eye on this one! Bias: Bullish . Happy Friday everyone and good luck trading the employment numbers this morning!
COMEX:SI1!Long
by DailyClose
VIX: Hit the Trade War highs. Cyclical decline starting.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, has almost hit last Friday the highs (50.30) of the U.S. - China trade war in February 2018. Going further back on the time line, the 53.30 high of VIX during China's economic slowdown fears in late August 2015, isn't far off either. Today's lower opening was a natural response but even then the index remains overbought (RSI = 80.163) and when it does it is historically unlikely to stay that high for low. We are expecting a strong decline back to the ease levels of 12.75 - 13.30 in around 2 months. As you see on the chart and the last two highs, this is a cyclical process of VIX and the occurence of the next shock event can even be timed. Regardless of timing, the current VIX levels present an optimal sell opportunity. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CBOE:VIXShort
by InvestingScope
3
ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2020.02.23Here we are tracking the massive breakup in Vol; this is looking dangerous and is right on time with Coronavirus kicking in. This was forecast miles in advance (see charts below) and has followed the mapped flows flawlessly since the previous swing we began tracking earlier last year: The sweep of the lows was a textbook example of clearing the board to open up the runway towards 38 and 85. We can continue to just keep recycling positions in the same levels and same direction. The price drivers keep telling us that; US Equities will also receive a major hammer as they are complete dislocated from reality. Good luck all those in VIX from the lows... a flawless +60% position in the @ridethepig portfolio so far from the infamous "Capitulation Waters". Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
1
VIX - Indices Trading | Elliott Wave Structures | Q2 2019*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. VIX - Elliott Wave Outlook Pattern: Leading Diagonal in Intermediate (1) (blue) "Bullish" Divergence soon to launch a spike Next expected swing: Violent rise and a spike in volatility in Intermediate (2) (blue) Structure change: An impulsive continuation for the down-side could lead towards Indices rallying in a 3 of 3's.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Lionheart-EWA
VIX - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. VIX should be able to resume the down-trend soon and complete the "greed" cycle, which in turn would translate bullish momentum for Indices and a postpone on the inevitable Market Crash sequence. If however a break-out would occur, then a proper spike could be in play, translating into a prolonged "fear" period.Nevertheless, these are crucial times and the movements will be epic. Just need to be on top of it and keep on tracking, confirm and then tap into the real trend.Eat, sleep, trade and visualize those pips piling up.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Lionheart-EWA
2
Part 1 - Risk-off August - VIX WeeklyVIX (Volatility Index) seems to be preparing for another spike in volatility. With the start of February 2018, VIX jumped. That spike in volatility could represent the first piece of a series of similar events. This indicator is used by analysts to measure the state of buy-sell investors’ emotions, complacency versus the fear effect. In simple terms, a rise in the VIX would or bring with it a sharp fall in Stocks and/or Indices. A decrease in the VIX represents the periods when market participants are in the state of greed, being complacent and euphorically enjoying the bull market. A rise in VIX indicates a period of uncertainty, risk-off events that impact the markets directly and suddenly. Such spikes bring with them a fear effect, when investors are beginning to feel worried for the market’s destined directions.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Lionheart-EWA