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ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.03.02Fed rate cuts taking full control of the FX board as virus disruptions start to fade - it's time to go shopping in G10 and EM FX and the intervention policies will provide some USD relief. Here looking for a rebound into previous ranges in USDRUB as a pro-cyclical currency. A test of the previous range we were trading looks around the corner: The spread of the virus is naturally impacting global growth, and tipping OPEC towards intervention in Oil as well as a number of CBs. Markets now price Fed to cut 75bps by June - similar story in Australia with RBA, UK with BOE and BOC in Canada. Tracking closely for risk to find a temporary floor this week. As usual thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming .. jump into the conversation below with your views on RUB!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.19As widely expected USDRUB selling off from the 64.2x highs and a good time to collect half our chips from the table. Well done sellers, a textbook zigzag and flawless trade since the channel breakup so far. The spike was a textbook flushout with US sanctions acting as the catalyst. For those tracking the previous diagrams the flows are wide open in the range, actively playing it makes complete sense to me in this environment: Eventually expecting the grind towards the lows, risk sentiment around the COVID-19 will continue in the driving seat for further action here. Tracking closely 62.7x lows. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.18As widely expected we got a test of the highs at 64.2x once the channel was broken (see diagram). The ladder is light and I like to play this tight range and look for a test of the lows. "Eyes here, looking to sell 64.2x on the day..." - This is currently in play, although risk is showing now signs of abating the low sizings are keeping a test of the lows on the cards. Tracking closely the highs, if we get a breakup then I will not be stubborn and hold onto the shorts, I will close. This is a tactical range trade. Good luck all those in USDRUB, we can open the short-term sentiment conversations in the comments if we get enough interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open. Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Spot Commentary 2020.01.20Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience. The first compelling chart shows the highs being set in this monthly swing; the total removal of its lows opened up the same flows in EURRUB: The swings we have just glimpsed at are quite typical and although it will likely not feel necessary here, the importance of in checking the 60 handle for headlines and masses. Mostly only one player benefits from this entire flow, but that is quite sufficient. I expect sellers to show some strength over the coming days and weeks. A lot of talk of few large hands in Oil buying dividends. In any case looking for the infamous 60 target. Thanks as usual for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the conversation with any questions.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.01.09Here markets are starting to see shorts pick up momentum, this has been a very very easy ride so far since our initial entry (see diagram): Oil has drastically sold off, and risk sentiment in the M.E is fading. While we failed to clear 70 we managed to unwind some at 65 on the Iran spike. No reason to change course here yet, market sits itching to breakdown. Remain on the sell side. Tracking closely for the flush in USDRUB to 60 with NFP tomorrow to kickstart the next iteration in flows. For the flows: Sell LMT Entry 61.2 | TP 60.0 | SL 62.0 ... It is the same story in EURRUB as we complete the final few ticks: GL those trading RUB into NFP.
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2019.02.12Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More activity coming with NY session, a good level to pick up offers as the cross drives through technical momentum at 64.3x. Best of luck all those in RUB
Short
by ridethepig
3
CBoT wheat weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows that the price has been moving in a long term descending trending price channel that started in July of 2012 at around the 900/930 level and gradually channeled price down to 466 in September 2014 after which price made, although reluctantly, a new low at around the 485 level during August 2016. From late December 2016 onwards price hesitantly started making modest new highs and has not tested back the most recent low. The interesting in this price channel is the fact that price has not been testing the lower line of the channel since September 2014 and made only one modest lower lows on the chart since. Price has developed a descending wedge that roughly started between May and September 2014. The TA rule of an ascending wedge is that price, eventually, will break out of same wedge to the upside which usually happens between 2/3rd and 3/4th of the wedge and which has happened 3 weeks ago indeed. Usually, price then makes a test back to the upper line of the wedge which then serves as support which now seems to be developing.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Remko