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2h TO TRADE - VERY STRONG SUPPORT TO WATCH OUT - TN1! - 30MNThank you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated! _________________________________________________ The market has shown amazing entry point for a long trade down. The formation of a large wick followed by volumes later on gave us very profitable trades today. The support line is very strong and the market failed to break it . This is it for today! Another tentative might come in the next 2H but for the moment any entry done will be in the long direction. The probability of seeing the market rebounding on the support trend line being very high. Trade from Monday and keep an eye in this strong support line.
CBOT:TN1!Long
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets. The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
Corn Futures - Area Chart Analysis - Monthly ViewHello everybody, Here is my chart analysis for Corn Futures. Monthly timeframe & long-term vision. Since its historical top at 806'4 Corn is on a downtrend. Its bearish potential is really interesting. Nevertheless, 300'0 price level could be the next support. Indeed, Corn has been drifted in a range area between 320'0 & 440'0 since July 2014. If the actual price breaks this level, Corn could reach the 200'0 price level which has been hit several times. Between August 1998 & October 2005 but before also, I just don't have more space to show you that in this publication. However, Pay attention for a possible pullback on the 300'0 price level ! I hope you'll like it ! Follow me for Futures Chart Analysis ! Thanks & see you !
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn4544564
ridethepig | Squeeze!Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely mentioned "local banks will come under pressure and show severe distress above 7" ...increasingly this is becoming the target as weak fundamentals and dictators limit ability to invest in the currency. Expect some consolidation over the coming days before further funding issues add upward pressure via USD demand. Good luck all those buying the dips, highly recommend tracking TRY as a good benchmark to health in EM FX. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, as usual jump into the comments with your charts, view and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example: After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by... If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY. Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | USDTRY 2020 Macro MapWith the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste. For those who have been tracking the previous swing, the underlying Lira weakness is set to continue over the coming years with an eventual grind towards the widely tracked 7.8xx target since 2018. Expecting markets to remain on the back-foot as long as Erdogan remains at the helm, this will dislocate from the USD devaluation as simply the TRY side is far weaker... all short and medium term flows will lack follow through so targeting 6.00 in Q120, and 6.50 in Q420 seems reasonable. For those really wanting to stick the knife into the bearish TRY story 7.80 in 24m. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
Long
by ridethepig
5
corn trading analysisthis is an idea based on fundamental and technical analysis, we are at a potential buy setup as the fundamentals(the report referred) suggest a minor supply and bad planting timing of the crop. it has to be remarked to read the comment of the acreage report at the end of the document and understand how the crop grows. if focused only on the first page of the acreage report (acreage of corn +3%) you can see that at the date the market receipted as a major supply(a sharp drop of price) but it did not account for the very late planting time and it can affect the developing of the crop. all the important reports: USDA acreage acrg0619 pdf (28/06/2019) USDA crop progress prog2919 pdf (15/07/2019) (search by your self) the setup is a buy if do not drop significantly below the parallel channel and watch the further development of the crop to maximize the profits in the closing of the positions. the latest report of the USDA indicate an improvement of the growing stage of the corn, but it is still significantly below compared year on year, also the crop quality has this deficit.
CBOT:ZCU2019Long
by UnknownUnicorn2034851
$BTC LOG SCALE ON COINBASE FAT BEARIf you look at the daily Coinbase chart and switch it to a log scale chart. Then you will see that the uptrend is stronger than you thought but you will also see that we have been in a Bear market since price closed below the 200 EMA back in January of this year. I have been told that many long term institutional investors use Log Scale charts -vs- standard Linear Scale charts when they are making TA decisions. Either way I feel that it is in my best interest to try and swim in the direction of the current. With that being said institutional money has been short since last December when the $BTC Futures contracts launched. Who do you think ran the price way up to $20K just so they could short it at the tipsy top? Every week since they have been short, balance heavy in the futures market so until we see them swing their positions to the long side then I feel that we are looking at more downward pressure. Not only do we have problems with several adult man children fighting over their toys ($BCH Drama) but their is no one with a vested interest to defend $BTC at this level. What I mean by this is, when the CME and the CBOT decided to launch $BTC futures contracts then on that day they started buying physical $BTC and how many years did it take them to stand up their products? How many years ago was that? The institutions are into $BTC much lower than many would think so don't be surprised to see $BTC slide to $1,500 or lower. Just my 2 nickles. DCA + HODL = Success. Viva La Crypto!!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dipdizzywizzle
FCPO Price moving in channelPrice hit 2260 at the top of the trend line and reverse back into the range today. Price closed respecting the channel and the significant level at 2238 (again), and is Holiday tomorrow. Moving forward to Thursday, we may see bearish momentum pushing it towards bottom trend line and start moving in ranges, before any news / data releases that will build up any momentum. Also to observe the movement of CBOT - movement may affect the FCPO price direction.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by kkgoh87
DJI (CBOT)B&B Pattern. Trade setup with Buy Limit position (EP) at 25387 Stop Loss (SL) at 24531 and Take Profit (TP) at 26186. Money Management I have 22,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 2,280 USD. I will Trade MINI DOW JONES ($5) Position Sizing 1 Tick = $5 1 Contract size need IM = $3,685 (I can open not more than $22,800 / $3,685 = 6.187 Cons) It is 856 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 856 * $5 = $4,280 To lose 2,280 USD I need to open 2,280 / 4,280 = 0.53 Con Then I will put 1 Contract If I win, I will gain (26186 - 25387) * $5 * 1 Con = $3,995 P.S. I will not trade this position because stop loss is beyond my acceptable number
DJ:DJILong
by SuppasitWechprasit
WN2017 - July '17 Wheat FuturesAs the market made lower lows, the MACD indicator made higher highs. This is very powerful bullish divergence. Circled is where the MACD crossed over to the upside, further indicating bullishness. Stops should be placed slightly below the most recent low of 429'4, which occurred on March 31. Profit targets are at the Fibonacci retracement levels. Target 1 - 459 Target 2 - 483 Target 3 - 503* *Following the same pattern as the other upward movements would put price at this level on June 21, the summer solstice.
WLong
by darkmorg
cbot soybeans weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows a very interesting picture with a long term resistance trend line that has its start at around 1765 in September 2012 when the bear market started and that descends via the 1500/1530 region during April/June 2014 to the 1185 level during June 2016. This line is significant because of the long period of time that is exists although the amount of times that it actually offered resistance to price is rather limited. There is a shorter resistance trend line that starts in June 2016 at 1185 and that leads to the 1170 level in January and February 2017. Between these two lines we have coloured a red triangle which is representing a strong resistance to price and which is found between, roughly, 1060 and 1085 during the coming week and of which the values gradually decline. The supportive forces on the chart are found in a trend line (displayed bold and in dash) that starts at around 855 during late February 2016 and leads up via the 935 level during September/October 2016. There is a shorter supportive trend line that starts at 935 in September 2016 and goes up via 990 during January 2017 and 1015 during last week. Between these two supportive lines we have coloured a green triangle which is representing a strong support to price and which is found between, roughly, 1000 and 1020 during the coming week. Hence, price currently finds itself between the proverbial ‘rock and a hard place’ and has to break either the, roughly 1070 resistance and the, roughly, 1015 support. We expect price to bounce a bit further between the two during the coming 1 to 2 weeks after which the pressure will have become too high which will result in a volatile outbreak either way. Taking the daily chart as well as the EW counting (not displayed) into account we have a slight preference for a solid move to the upside from here although we will need to wait for a confirmation from price after it broke through its resistance convincingly.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Remko
CBoT soybeansThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price of the May contract has been gradually moving up within the parallel lines of an ascending price channel that started during July/August 2016 and which took price up with the relevant supports and resistances. This chart clearly shows that price is moving in a short term uptrend with a long term downtrend. In other words: price is making a corrective move up within its long term bear move. With all the supportive spots on the lower boundary line of the price channel we have to assume that price will make a move up from here, same unless the contrary is proven. The EW count (not included in the chart) suggests that a wave 2 of (3) is complete and that we are now in a wave 3 of (3) which should take price initially to the upper boundary of the ascending price channel. We need to see confirmation of that during the coming week by price breaking the 1056 level to the upside after which we need to see the 1075 level broken to the upside so price still has quite some work to do before we can be certain of a solid move to the upside indeed but the picture favours the upside over the downside. A break below 1001 (marked with a green 1) would make us decide to abandon the favourable odds for a move to the upside. After price has broken the 1056 resistance to the upside we will trail our pivotal support to 1017 (marked with a green 2) and after price has broken the 1075 to the upside we will trail our pivotal support to 1028 (marked with a green 3).
CBOT:ZSK2017Long
by Remko
CBoT soyameal weeklyThe weekly continuation chart especially shows that there is not such awfully much to show. There is a gap between, roughly, the 450 and the 465 level and the rules of TA teach us that gaps always are filled. Regretfully, however, same TA rules do not teach us when that gap has to be filled so that doesn’t particularly help us a lot here and now. Price has developed an ascending price channel that is drawn in the chart with dashed lines and that is rather wide due to the rally during April/May 2016 so the upper boundary of same channel does not help us too much here either. The lower boundary of same channel, however, shows various supportive points during February/April 2016, during September/October 2016 and during January 2017. During the past 7 weeks, price has been moving rather sideways within a channel between, roughly, 330 and 350. We have coloured a green triangle between the lines which represents a strong supportive zone between, roughly, 330 and 320 during the coming week. The most logical move to expect from here and now is a possible further decline of price into its support and a bounce up from there with, possibly, 400 or even up to 475 as target. Too early to assume right now but to keep in mind as possible future play.
CBOT:ZM1!
by Remko