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Corn CBoT further developing as anticipatedCorn: Price traded further up and reached our first target which is not a reason for us to square the position but rather to trail our intra-day stop up to a level where we optimize the profitability of the position just in case that the picture radically reverses. We would like to see a bit more impulse of the move up during the coming week in which case we will probably move our target 2 up a bit as well. For now we are comfortable as we are and we see no reason to start fumbling this chart.
CBOT:ZCN2016Long
by Remko
Soybeanmeal CBoT in neutral modeSoybeanmeal: Price made a another move up to a new high which could be an indication that even higher highs want to be put on this chart. Our target has been reached already at some 8-10% lower level than what is being traded today but rather than regretting having 'missed' the last dime we count our blessings that we had a good ride on this wave. The current development of this chart is really not giving us any solid handhold to decide entertaining a short play from here. We first want to see that a tradable top is in this chart and only after that we will seek for a comfortable entry point. Nothing to be done for us here and now.
CBOT:ZMN2016
by Remko
Soybeans CBoT target reached and position squareSoybeans: Price has reached our target during the past week and made an impulsive overshoot to even higher levels. Price is also forming a 'ascending broadening wedge' which is a reversal pattern. We believe that price is at or close to the end of its current move up and that it will reverse in a corrective move down of 10-15% soon. The candle of last Friday has a long upper shadow and a narrow real body at the lower end of the candle which could be the bode that the reversal is imminent. At the same time price made a new high which indicates that it wants to go even higher. Our bias is neutral from here until we see a clear sign that the top is in the market indeed and only after that we will start looking for a possible trade to entertain. In case that we miss the next move we will patiently wait until we feel comfortable for the wave after the next.
CBOT:ZSN2016
by Remko
Soybeanmeal CBoTSoybeanmeal: Price made again a new high during the week which, as per the rules of engagement, could well be a sign that it wants to go even hight. The pattern that price drew during the past 3 trading days could be a reversal pattern. The RSI is in oversold area but is not diverting with price and the MACD is not in divergence either. There are too many contradictory signs in this chart for time being. We believe that there is a fair chance that price will start making a solid move down during next week but to 'believe' is not a reason to take a position. We stay away from this market right now and wait until we see a clearer picture.
CBOT:ZMN2016
by Remko
Beanoil CBoTBeanoil: Price has made its test back to the resistance level of 3200 which has set the floor for a solid bear move. Initial stops are at 3260 for this run and if price would break the 3385 level we will have to turn back to our drawing board and reconsider our bear bias again. In case that our initial stop gets hit we will look at a renewed short entry opportunity later on. Initial target has not been set yet as we first want to see price to get on its way so that we can trail the stop to entry level but we are in for a 10% move at least.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
Weighted Basket of 5 Agri Commoditeis - Hyperinflation Coming*EDIT in text quote on left of chart - *Synchronicity in between I have created an equally weighted portfolio of 5 sustenance based commodities including Soybean, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Wheat, and Maize (continuous fwd contracts). This is an update to the first chart I have published (rough rice) which isn't updating for some reason but if you see the RR1! graph on another website you will see that my analysis is 100% on point so far and even identifies exact msp level prior to breakout. I am expecting sustenance based commodity hyperinflation in the coming years as we enter a macroeconomic environment that the economics textbooks have never described. The money manager commitment data points to breakout, technicals show clear range suppression and evident accumulation pointing to impeding breakout. Global trade statistics are abysmal, statistics of subprime/consumer debt/corporate debt delinquencies are abysmal, PE ratios of leading equity markets are abysmal. I do not wish for this to happen because this will affect billions of people but this is most likely what is going to happen. Best of luck.
BLong
by RahulAndra
9
Soybeanmeal CBoTSoybeanmeal: Price has reached our target during the past week and showed a very strong performance during Friday's session. Price made a 50% advance in just 6 weeks (!) and we believe it is time for price to make sizeable move to the downside from here. However, as long as we do not see a reversal pattern being drawn on the chart we will have to wait for an even more overbought status. The sign goes on 'neutral' from here and now and we are going to wait for a short trade set-up.
CBOT:ZMN2016
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT N16Beanoil: Price initially followed our preferred routing quite precisely but suffered a pull-back during the last two sessions that was deeper than we would have liked to see. Our bias with price target remains intact although a decisive move further down to 31.50 would be a conclusive sign to us that we should reconsider our short term bull bias. Our longer term view on beanoil is bearish but for now we still keep our eye on the 36 target by the end of May and we have not changed the chart.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko
Soybeans CBoT N16Soybeans: Nothing much changed from our picture of one week ago: price is still in an impulsive move up and has made a 3-day corrective move down after the very strong soar of early last week. The pattern of the corrective move down during the past 3 trading suggests that there is more room to the upside. The soar of May 10 took the price from, roughly, the 1030 level to, roughly, the 1080 level. We favor a continuation of the move up from here starting Monday to, roughly, the 1020 zone with a possible overshoot.
CBOT:ZSN2016Long
by Remko
Beanoil Long PlayPrice has been following our preferred path quite nicely last week and tested the downside of the ascending price channel from where it made quite an impulsive bounce up during last Friday's session. Friday's candle was a strong one and had the characteristics of a 'Bullish Engulfing' candle which is a solid sign that price wants to reverse and go up from here. The candle was also a 'Double Key Reversal' candle with a lower low than the previous day but a higher close than the two previous candles which is a very solid bullish bode as well. As far as we are concerned the price is on the way to our target of around 36/37 by latest the end of May which is at the upper boundaries of the price channel and some 8-10 percent up from its current level.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko
Soybeanmeal Long PlayPrice did not make the corrective move down to 315/305 last week as was preferred by us but rather traded a sideways pattern between, roughly, 336 and 350. This price moves very much like the soybean price which is not so uncommon. We are adjusting our short term bias a bit and we are now looking for a move further up from here although we do not want to exclude a test of last week's low one more time before price will start trading up next week. We are putting our price target at around the 370/375 latest by the end of May with is some 8-10 percent up from the current level.
CBOT:ZMN2016Long
by Remko
Soybeans Long PlayPrice did not make the corrective move down to 975 during last week as was preferred by us but rather traded a sideways pattern between, roughly 1010 and 1050. It doesn't change our general expectation of the development of this price but we need to adjust our preferred path a bit. We take our view to the upside from here and have a bias with 1100 as target which we would like to see reached latest by the end of May. If price breaks the 1000 level, however, we will have to go back to the drawing board again and start considering the correction down after all. For now we are in for a 5% swing up from current levels.
CBOT:ZSN2016Long
by Remko
Wheat No Play yetPrice did not develop as per our preferred path during last week and broke through the downside of our ascending price channel. This makes us feel less comfortable although the critical supportive level of 450 remains intact for now. However, with the price making a move down last week we will only start feeling more comfortable if price breaks the 480 level and settles above decisively. For now price is rather in an area that is probably best described as 'the jungle from where we do not see the exit' and we should rather hold back for now and see when price gets out of that jungle and, especially, on what side.
CBOT:ZWN2016
by Remko
1