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Cocoa

Cocoa Cacao #CC1!#Cocoa can’t seem to take a clear heading, the august attempt failed. USD keeps consolidating (@109) harming commodities such as cocoa. On a technical view: cc tried for a run above 2400 on the 22nd of August, but this push was cut short by negative world news from higher inflation, more worries from China, Europe, and mostly the energy crisis that will seem to obliterate the european market if leaders don’t find a solution to their problems. The EU is facing an increase of up 500% over their utility bill and that will convert many businesses to bankruptcy. Chocolate will most probably be less consumed in this third and fourth quarter as Europe digs its way out of the energy crisis. On the positive note, CC managed to hold above 2300, on its 12 months support. If it is tested again then I fear the next support is 2150. At 2150 it enters what I call the green zone where it becomes attractive to get back in. Nevertheless CC is still very far from its 50 day MA, 140 points on the weekly graph. There are some signs of improvements on the MACD indicator holding a positive trend since 22/08. On the longer term graph, it is still far from showing a change from a downtrend. As we approach the end of year, which usually denotes higher consumption for chocolates, I am hoping to see a reversal of trend by seasonality effect. Macro events will definitely take over any micro trends possibilities. **** Cacao parece no tomar rumbo, el intento de inicios de agosto fracasó. USD sigue consolidándose (@ 109) perjudicando materias primas como el cacao. Desde un punto de vista técnico: #CC intentó romper por encima de 2400 el 22 de agosto, pero este impulso se vio interrumpido por noticias mundiales negativas de mayor inflación, más preocupaciones desde China, Europa y, sobre todo, la crisis energética q asombra europa si los líderes no encuentran solución a sus problemas. La UE se enfrenta a un aumento de hasta 500 % en su factura de electricidad y eso llevará muchas empresas a la quiebra. Lo más probable es que el chocolate se consuma menos en este tercer y cuarto trimestre a medida que Europa se abre camino para salir de la crisis energética. En la nota positiva, CC logró mantenerse por encima de 2300, el soporte de los últimos 12 meses. Si prueba nuevamente, temo que el próximo soporte es 2150. En 2150 ingresa a lo que llamo la zona verde donde se vuelve atractivo ingresar para especuladores. Sin embargo, CC aún está muy lejos de su Media Móvil de 50 días, 140 puntos del gráfico semanal. Hay algunas señales de mejora en el indicador MACD que mantiene una tendencia positiva desde el 22/08. En el gráfico a más largo plazo, todavía está lejos de mostrar un cambio de la tendencia bajista. A medida que nos acercamos al final del año, que generalmente denota mayor consumo de chocolates y por ende una mejoría en el precio, esperare ver una reversión de la tendencia por el efecto de la estacionalidad. Los Macro eventos definitivamente tendrán mayor peso a las posibilidades de las micro tendencias.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Short term Cocao Analisis On the daily graph, #CC is attempting a break-out from its mid-February downhill from 2800 down to 2250. It has tried monthly to break through that resistance (RED) and failed, it is now on 9th of august attempting yet again. However, this time it looks more supportive as its MACD has turned positive since mid-July and better buy volumes also. Its short term moving average is also trying to turn positive. It is in process. On a longer-term chart, weekly, and which will be showing, the black arrow is attempting to reverse trend. It is so far a weak attempt, as averages are still far from giving any confirmation, and volumes are still largely negative. Nevertheless, higher lows can be a positive indication of a higher price if this tendency maintains itself. I would call this at the crossroad. En el gráfico diario, cacao está intentando romper de su descenso de mediados de febrero desde 2800 a 2250. Ha intentado romper mensualmente esa resistencia (ROJA) y ha fallado, ahora el 9 de agosto lo intenta una vez más. Sin embargo, esta vez parece mejor posicionado ya que su MACD se ha vuelto positivo desde mediados de julio y también muestra volúmenes de compra. Su promedio móvil a corto plazo también está tratando de volverse positivo. A largo plazo, periodo semanal, como se ve en el gráfico, la flecha negra indica que intenta revertir la tendencia. Hasta ahora, parece un intento débil, ya que los promedios aún están lejos de dar una confirmación y los volúmenes siguen siendo en gran medida negativos. Sin embargo, bajos más altos suele ser una indicación positiva de un precio más alto si esto se mantiene. Yo lo llamaría: la encrucijada.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Cocoa #CC Cacao Analysis I will start with Base Support (SB) which in my last analysis I said: ‘Base Support SB at 2315 still holds, if this breaks next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150.’ On July 1, the price of CC touched the base support level, and bounced back up only to fall on July 7th again and close the week on the SB level. This is clearly not a positive and may be indicative of further weakness to come. Resistance D (red line) continues to serve as a ceiling and cocoa is still far from approaching this R. The MACD indicator is still showing a downward trend, as well as the EMA’s averages. Likewise, the DXY indicator (dollar) continues to rise, in this case weakening the price of cocoa. THERE IS NO CHANGE OF TREND at the moment but these next few days will be important. If cocoa fails to recover, we will be seeing new levels, possibly around $2,200 per ton or $80 per quintal. Europe & the US continue on a recessionary path with higher inflation. Consumption decreases as the purchasing power of the consumer is eroded and chocolate will most likely also be touched. Next week grinding data will be out and that will give us a clearer indication regarding the real health of the consumption of chocolate. If the volume of grindings remains the same or rises, then a positive, if they fall, it indicates that the recession is affecting the chocolate market, and consequently the purchase of its raw material, cocoa. Comienzo con el Soporte Base SB que en mi último análisis dije: ‘El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte sería alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150.’ El 1 julio el precio del cacao tocó el nivel del soporte base, y rebotó con debilidad el 7 de julio para de nuevo recaer y cerrar la semana al SB. Esto claramente no es positivo y puede ser indicativo de mayor debilidad por venir. La resistencia D (roja) sigue sirviendo de techo y por lo visto aún está lejos de acercarse. El indicador MACD aún muestra una tendencia a la baja, así como los promedios EMA. Igualmente, el indicador DXY (dólar) se mantiene en alza debilitando en este caso el curso del cacao. NO HAY CAMBIO DE TENDENCIA por el momento pero estos proximos dias seran importantes. Sí el cacao no logra recuperarse estaremos viendo nuevos niveles posiblemente alrededor de $2200 por tonelada o $80 por quintal. Europa & EEUU siguen en una trayectoria recesionaria con mayor inflación. El consumo disminuye a medida que se erosiona la capacidad adquisitiva del consumidor y el chocolate también tendrá afectación. La próxima semana saldrán datos de moliendas y eso nos dará un indicativo más claro en cuanto al consumo real del chocolate. Si volumen de moliendas se mantiene o suben entonces un positivo, si bajan indicador de que la recesión está afectando el mercado del chocolate, y a consecuencia la compra de su materia prima el cacao.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Cocoa Futures (CC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ReversalType: Bearish Reversal Resistance: 2645 Pivot: 2607 Support: 2557 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot level at 2607 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support level at 2557 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection along with a graphical swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price might break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level at 2645 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by Genesiv
LONDON Cocoa Future C1! - Short Term AnalysisPrices have been in a squeeze for a very long time ... The last days of this scramble will be like the middle of June. Prices will probably decide which way to go by this date, Up or down? In this sense; It is worth watching the 1840-1890 band for prices that are supported by the 50-day exponential average. However, we would expect prices to hold on to 1690 and then 1650 in a repeat selling pressure. It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
ICEEUR:C1!
by EmoteK
Weekly cocoa market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed lower at $2,506 a ton. Cocoa prices fell sharply last week from over $2,650 to just $2,500. Even the falling dollar could not provide support for cocoa. Last week was therefore a weather-oriented market. Indeed, above-average rains combined with sunny periods in most cocoa-growing areas of Ivory Coast should improve the quality and size of beans at the end of the main harvest. Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March, when rains are normally light and infrequent. Producers welcomed a second consecutive week of good rains, which they say will trigger a new flowering mid-harvest from April to September and also boost the yield of the last stage of the main crop from October to March. Farmers said they expected large volumes of beans to leave the bush until the end of January. Fears of reduced demand with an ICCO report predicting a surplus in the 2020/21 crop and a crop that looks good explain last week's drop. For the 2020/21 season, the arrivals in Ivorian ports are 996K tons as of November 22, against 883K tons at the same period the previous season. Cocoa stocks are down to 2908 thousand bags of 60 Kg. The International Cocoa Organization ICCO has revised down the cocoa surplus to 19,000 tons compared to a previous forecast of 42,000 tons. The ICCO estimated world cocoa production at 4.697 million tonnes, about 27,000 tonnes less than its previous forecast. World cocoa grindings are forecast at 4,631 thousand tonnes, 4 thousand less. On the international level, the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that an agreement of 900 billion would have been reached. The Fed said its stock purchases would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases. The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average rainfall of more than 150mm. They were more mixed in November. The southern parts of these 2 countries received above normal rainfall and the northern parts were 50mm below normal. Cocoa trees are more affected by rainfall than any other climatic factor. The dry season started in Ivory Coast and Ghana and lasts from mid-November to March. Producers hope that the Harmattan will not come too early this year. It is a dusty wind from the northeast of the Sahara that blows during the dry season. Harmattan can have a negative impact on crops. The wind would already be present in the northern part of the country, which explains why rainfall was already more concentrated in the coastal areas. Last week, the rains were higher than normal. ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are down to 2908 against 2967 thousand 60 kg bags last week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks are above last season's stocks at the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue. Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is up this week to 34.575 K instead of 32.379 K.
ICEUS:CC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cocoa market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed lower at $2,622 a ton. Ivory Coast lifts suspension of sustainability programs imposed on industrialist Hershey. Indeed, the U.S. chocolate maker has committed to pay the LID, a premium introduced by Ghana and Ivory Coast to ensure a decent income for producers. This marks a break in the tensions between the two countries and the manufacturer. Cocoa prices fell to 2520 dollars per ton, before recovering over the weekend regaining 100 dollars in 2 sessions. The downward movement seems to be running out of steam between the hopes brought by the vaccine, the vaccination campaigns that will follow, and low ICE stocks. Cocoa stocks are down to 2967 thousand 60 kg bags. The International Cocoa Organization ICCO has revised the cocoa surplus downward to 19,000 tons from a previous forecast of 42,000 tons. The ICCO estimated world cocoa production at 4.697 million tonnes, about 27,000 tonnes less than its previous forecast. World cocoa grindings are forecast at 4,631 thousand tonnes, 4 thousand less. The dry period in West Africa has begun and runs from mid-November to March. Producers fear the arrival of the Harmattan. It is a dusty wind coming from the northeast of the Sahara and which blows during the dry season. The above-normal rainfall last week, however, improves the prospects for the end of the main harvest between January and March, and reassures producers in the more central parts of Ivory Coast, which had received less rain. Ivory Coast seems to have turned the page on its troubled presidential election, and it is now the turn of its neighbor and world's second largest cocoa producer Ghana. President Nana Akufo-Addo is re-elected, but the opposition rejects the results of a close ballot. Half a million votes separate the incumbent president and his opponent, John Mahama. Internationally, the ECB has increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, the U.S. support plan is still slow in coming, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases. The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish. WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average rainfall of more than 150mm. They were more mixed in November. The southern parts of these 2 countries received above normal rainfall and the northern parts were 50mm below normal. Cocoa trees are more affected by rainfall than any other climatic factor. The dry season started in Ivory Coast and Ghana and lasts from mid-November to March. Producers hope that the Harmattan will not come too early this year. It is a dusty wind from the northeast of the Sahara that blows during the dry season. Harmattan can have a negative impact on crops. The wind would already be present in the northern part of the country, which explains why rainfall was already more concentrated in the coastal areas. Last week's above-normal rainfall of more than 25 mm in some areas has reassured producers. ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are down to 2967 from 3048 thousand 60 kg bags last week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks are above last season's stocks at the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep. A low dollar is generally favorable to dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is down this week to 32.379 K instead of 35.147 K.
ICEUS:CC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Short term long - broke out and retested downwards channel A possible long in Cocoa, after breaking from a downtrend channel (now retesting it) and finding support at the 50% fib retracement level, cocoa might yet again go higher to retest the 2700 key level or 2730 (projected height of the broken channel). Cocoa's seasonality is somewhat against higher prices at least until February-March, so beware of the short term perspective. Also, a weaker dollar is bullish for commodities like Cocoa.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by SenorBurgales