NIB BUYING OPPORTUNITY - COCOA Nib is an ETN which invests in Cocoa futures. It has broken through a downward trendline. It appears to be setting up for an inverse head and shoulders.
Trading plan:
Buy around downward blue support line. Stop loss just under the support line.
Targets are at the neckline of the Inverse H&S and also at the previous high where the green arrow shows.
Based on my study of the patterns in cocoa, I believe Cocoa is one of the most bullish commodities at this time. What do you think?
Cocoa
1W Channel Down. Short.Cocoa (CC1!) is on a very aggressive long term Channel Down on 1W (RSI = 37.498, MACD = -53.170, Highs/Lows = -176.9286, B/BP = -379.8580) and is currently also trending lower on the latest 1D bearish leg, equally as aggressive (STOCH = 21.862, Williams = -90.823). This is the third leg downwards on this Channel Down and based on the previous two it should reach a Lower Low around 1735. Our TP is higher at 1800.
COCOA TO GO 'LONG' for the futureQuick chart for my followers, cocoa to go long, if you have been following my other publishes then you would understand my chart without yellow full details, there may be further downtrend on the bottom yellow line but overall cocoa is on the uptrend as it has hit top yellow line.
Top yellow line at 2051
Bottom yellow line at 1800
Please study your indicators understand some, as they would help you determine a suitable entry point. use lower timeframe views such, Weekly and Daily view for a suitable entry point to go uptrend.
Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
Cocoa Sell IdeaCocoa Sell Idea @ Monthly Supply Zone (2628 - 2847)
Sell Limit: 2625
Stop Loss: 2850
Take Profit: 2150
Cocoa daylevel resistance 2443. Short or long? fibonacci analyseCocoa is at a heavy resistance now, 2443. Will it go Short or long?
Price is exactly between two fibonacci resistances now; 2524 and 2368. I think price will bounce between these two before it breaks long or short.
When it breaks the long resistance 2524, I see a target of 2674. When it breaks low; target 2153.
Most difficult part are the exact positions where to buy and positions stop loss.
I have some ideas about which positions to place orders, but I'll try some movements before opening them.
After years of studying, learning and practicing I have developed a way of trading which can provide an profit every month by trading cfd's.
The strategy I learned from an visionair is 'Cycle trading' and I have developed this further and made it my own.
How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse:
- sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode
- I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts, as; is the trend horizontal / uptrend or downtrend or volatile.
- and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! one of the indicators I use here to help me is the Fibonacci sequence.
- and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are Other positions than the resistances in the market! Here I work with 'the total expected possible profit' and an percentage from this total opportunity where I mostly close the trade to be safe.
And that's not all at all. Also I check if the opportunity is interesting, by analyzing the charts and when I can make the conclusion that when I should open an certain trade and the possible profit would be 2/3rd of the amount you can possibly loss. So, in bad case lose 100 dollar and best case win 300 dollar it is worth the try! losing these kind of trades, I see as an investment on the possible loss. Stop loss needs to be tight here.
Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment!
Sometimes we are in huge loss, before we end the month in good profit. This is all part of the game. Without trading positions which we lose, we could never win more than we lose. Losing orders is investing in the knowledge to trade the right one to earn money.
Thank you for following and Succes with trading !
Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
Cocoa at heavy resistance now 2443. Short or long? check my ideaCocoa is at a heavy resistance now, 2443. Will it go Short or long?
Price is exactly between two fibonacci resistances now; 2524 and 2368. I think price will bounce between these two before it breaks long or short.
When it breaks the long resistance 2524, I see a target of 2674. When it breaks low; target 2153.
Most difficult part are the exact positions where to buy and positions stop loss.
I have some ideas about which positions to place orders, but I'll try some movements before opening them.
After years of studying, learning and practicing I have developed a way of trading which can provide an profit every month by trading cfd's.
The strategy I learned from an visionair is 'Cycle trading' and I have developed this further and made it my own.
How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse:
- sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode
- I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts, as; is the trend horizontal / uptrend or downtrend or volatile.
- and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! one of the indicators I use here to help me is the Fibonacci sequence.
- and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are Other positions than the resistances in the market! Here I work with 'the total expected possible profit' and an percentage from this total opportunity where I mostly close the trade to be safe.
And that's not all at all. Also I check if the opportunity is interesting, by analyzing the charts and when I can make the conclusion that when I should open an certain trade and the possible profit would be 2/3rd of the amount you can possibly loss. So, in bad case lose 100 dollar and best case win 300 dollar it is worth the try! losing these kind of trades, I see as an investment on the possible loss. Stop loss needs to be tight here.
Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment!
Sometimes we are in huge loss, before we end the month in good profit. This is all part of the game. Without trading positions which we lose, we could never win more than we lose. Losing orders is investing in the knowledge to trade the right one to earn money.
Thank you for following and Succes with trading !
Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
COCOA CC1!I rarely publish these longterm ideas but here i am pointing out the current wave 4 on a weekly chart.
So in the long run we will be short the CC1! but since we are currently in a wave 4 we will be looking for long positions.
For a starter position i placed a long entry @2000, next @1975, @1935 and finally @1900
Soft targets start @2290,@2610 and very distant and unlikely @2800.
Targets 2610 and 2800 would be the area of adding big short positions for the long term trend continuation and commencing of wave 5.
Long term Short Targets start @1300, all the way to @790.
Long Term Cocoa Prices in Gold (XAUUSD) Similar to oil, the price of cocoa 3.18% is due for a recovery in terms of gold. Long term trajectory is likely downward once price hits my red region level.
Cycles in Cocoa vs Sugar Demand has been established at the blue diagonal for decades. Everytime price hit that level of equilibrium we've seen a massive reversal. We're once again at the level of extreme reversal.
Better get on this...
Cocao Feb17Long term looks very bearish
- Supportive trend line (green) from started in 2002... broke down last year
- H&S pattern set up
- H&S neckline touched up but 1870 not taken out yet
Looking at potential pull back to broken trend line (green), up into 3000
CC1! @ daily @ nearest commodity (of 32) to ATL still not a buyThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
CC1! @ daily @ nearest (of 32 commodities) to it`s alltime lowsThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
CC1! @ daily @ worst Commodity (-33%) 2016, closed yearly lowTake care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
44 COMMODITIES (2016 Yearly Performance) from Chicago, New York & London @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
Cocoa Nov'16 - 3000 before 2300?Heading into long term support (green).
Model predicts a rally up into 3,000 before we sink and take out long term support.