CCJ
CCJ to 25.81 following rising uranium spot priceLevels from early 2000's have been defended with solid buying support. Rising Uranium spot price benefits the producers, and CCj have the luxury of some of the biggest reserves on earth. Fib trends from two blowoff tops on previous rallies lead to a clear confluence of the 0.382 from 2007 and the 0.5 from 2011.
Expected timeframe is 2-4 years depending on economic cycles outside of the scope I can predict.
CCJ - Cameco Corp. Mining - domestically sourced energy sourceNYSE:CCJ
Recent changes to using domestic sources of Ur (Uranium symbol) for nuclear power.
Cameco Corp. is also at an extreme low due to the 2011 psunami that hit Japan that
had back-up power failure causing a melt down and Japan shuttering 32 Nuclear
Power Plants until they had full double fault protection to prevent such from ever
occuring again. They are now getting ready to start back up, which will drive up the
prices of Ur futures (UX) and thus profits for domestic suppliers, as no new power
plants are being built these days. CCJ pricing in near break-out of 9.75-9.81 resistance
level.
View the 1w, 1d, 1h, 1m chart and look for pricing to go past 9.80-9.81 range for entry
upward and simply know prices are going up. Lower Fib retracement is 9.50 which it
quickly bounced off today. Below this 9.13 is the low and not likely with current
dynamics.
CCJ - NYSE CCO - TSX Powering the grid Cameco Corp. Mining Uranium stock likely recovers in breakout of FIB retracements 0.5 (recent down) and 0.382 (recent up) and near 9.81 or drop below 9.50 to 8.95-9.25 resistance.
Point of interest:
* Uranium prices beaten down since 2011 Fukashima Reactor melt-down and back-up generator cooling failures from psunami hitting Japan.
* Japan shuts down all of the 32 Nuclear Reactors to assure public safety and clean-up causing global Uranium (Ur) prices to tumble to where it now is.
* Nuclear energy is still a paid for and quite reliable energy source with proper safety measures, which Japan now has and plans to restart.
* No. Amer. power also relies on nuclear power, which Pres. Trump will not import from other countries supporting demand.
* This is one of several plays, which is safe haven mid to large-cap mining stock and away from volatility (VIX) moneyballers like, as VIX up near 5% each of last 2 days.
Viewers come to own conclusions. Like, share, comment.
Uranium - Light at the end of the tunnel?I don´t think there is a sector that is more hated than uranium. Everything looks very bleak. This is a true contrarian bet.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
4th of July Fireworks in Uranium Price ? Final low in Uranium? Harmonic bullish bat pattern in uranium price recently.
Plus 10 year GANN cycle completed on June 30, 2017 exactly 10 years from the previous peak at June 30, 2007.
So a harmonic bullish BAT pattern and a 10 year GANN (the greatest trader who ever lived ) cycle on June 30th ? I will take those odds any day.
I am no expert in GANN, but these confluence of data is impressive to say the least.
Put uranium on the RADAR.
comments please !!!!