DOTUSD Hello traders this is a simple analysis with ichimoku as you see we have a great gap in ichimoku clouds and there are some support and resistance that they are based on ichimoku data ( I removed TS and KS for simpler chart ) and for confirmation we can see a convergence in MACD and also the price is on the historical line . so I expect up trend for this cryptocurrency ( if the price break the black line to downside this analysis will be fielded and we should wait for a better trigger price )
Centered Oscillators
$FDX Weekly - what is the path of least resistance ? FDX weekly - is the shaded box "higher lows" and thus preparing for a rally to ATHs ? Or is the shaded box a Bear flag with a break down imminent.
Time will tell ... Looks oddly similar to APR-MAY 2019 price action
My bias is to the downside but will wait for confirmation - no trade for me ... yet
Shiba Inu is it ready for another zero down?Hello Traders,
Just wanted to make a few points here and talk about my plan for shib. As you can see Shib has been forming a descending channel for 3 full months. Which recently on the last pullback within the channel the RSI reached oversold territory. Previously back in September of 2021 the RSI also hit this same area and this indicated it had bottomed. I am looking to see if it does the same this time. You can also see some bullish divergence on the MACD.
Yet, if we do see one more pullback from this area I would think the RSI would be diverged as the price action hits the bottom of the channel in the demand zone as well as the area where the trend line having a nice confluence of areas to buy, then I would enter my trade there and place my stop loss directly under this area as you can see on the chart.
Have a green week and I will see you in the next analysis!
Savvy
AT&T ready to for the next big jump? Dear TradingView-Community,
today I want to share the first investment idea and I hope it will help you making the right decisions or bring a new perspective to your analysis.
I really would like you to ask for feedback, that I can also learn from different views to become better over time. Thanks a lot for your time and I really hope it is not wasted, but for your benefit.
As you can see on the chart, it is a really long cycle of the AT&T stock performance. As many communication stocks at that time AT&T hit its all-time high shortly before the dot-com bubble reached its biggest volume. AT&T have never seen this price since. Instead over the years there were several up and downs, but all had one thing in common >> every high and low stayed within a triangle (purple lines) and the volatility went down more and more.
In October 2021 after presenting Q3 results, the stock price went to free fall and left the triangle to the lower end. But the downturn haven't stopped there, also the last significant support zone at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement - red line and active since 2005 - couldn't stop the sell off. Instead the chart went down almost until the last significant low from both - end of the dot-com correction (2002-2003) and end of the financial crisis (end of 2008-2009) (red bubbles).
Now let's take a closer look to the indicators, to find out if this also is a similar extreme reaction of the market as it was twice in the last decade.
1. RSI - Relative Strength Index
As you can see in the picture only 4 times since 2000 we could see a oversold situation in the weekly RSI chart until today. It is relatively easy to interpret the first 3 oversold situation because it was always the end of a broader market correction (dot-com, financial crisis, Covid 1st wave). Therefore it was also pretty easy to predict that the oversold situation will be corrected by increasing stock prices after the fear went out of market and the optimisim took place.
But what about the current situation?
We have an even more oversold situation, in fact we reached a new all-time low at 16.46. It would be very easy to argue that this is a perfect moment to buy stocks as much as possible, because this oversold situation will be cleared for sure very soon. But...
In my opinion there are several obstacles on the way and it is not that clear that a higher RSI also comes along with a higher stock price.
1. Currently we don't have had a broader market event that explains the downturn of this stock.
2. The competitor situation has changed dramatically over the last decade. (rise of T-Mobile US and recently the rollout of Tesla's StarLink project.
3. The liability situation becomes worse dramatically over the last 5 years with acquisitions of DirecTV and TimeWarner.
4. Both really large acquisitions are already on the way to separate again from AT&T in new corporations, but for a far lower value than purchased before.
5. The necessity of investing into 5G and fiber optic infrastructure to fight the competitors.
6. The latest spin-off announcement and the merger of HBO and Discovery also leads to dividend cuts for the first time since 50 years.
7. Technically the bearish cross of the triangle is a massive sell signal, but this is already happen and the price dropped already 20% since then.
Nevertheless, I need to point out that all above arguments also have some positive counterparts + we need to differentiate between a long-term investment based on value investment strategies and an short to mediate technical based investment.
So let's find out the positive things about the current situation and the nearer future:
1. Technically we are at an extreme low point when it comes to fib-retracement and RSI - that can lead to a turnaround with a short-term potential until $24.75 (23.6% Fib-retracement) or even $29.34 (38.2% Fib and connection to the triangle.
2. The merger of HBO-Discovery leads to a lot of additional stocks from the new corporation (70% of the AT&T stocks when you hold your stocks until the merger went through (approx. mid 2022). As you can see after several spin-off of different companies (e.g. Mercedes-Benz AG split from Mercedes-Benz Truck and Buses) the sum of both stocks are very often more worth than the stock before the spin-off. Means even when the AT&T stock price is not tending upwards, the spin-off and merger next year brings lots of potential.
3. The Spin-off leads to a significant liability reduction for the AT&T stock and that leads to a better value for the whole company.
4. The new merger is one of the market entertainment leader and with its digital and subscription growth strategy as well as its plans to expand to Europe, the best position in sport documentation and the strong brands will be a great base for expansion.
5. The reduced dividend kicks out dividend investors, but also leads to more free cash-flow to speed up the extension of 5G and fiber network.
6. The separation from the media section leads to more focus on the core business and allows to slimline the customer approach what also will safe operational costs.
7. AT&T is still a strong brand and one of the biggest communication companies in the world. It serves not just the US but the most countries of the world on all continents. Especially in raising Latin America AT&T is leader in costumer experience and working environment. A great foundation for further growth. Also the connection to the US government and especially into the emergency and health sector is a Garant for stable returns.
What I am now looking for to find a safe trade-in point with a W/L ratio of at least 2/1:
1. MACD weekly
When the blue line is crossing the red line again upwards that is a clear sign of strength and very bullish to interpret. Especially on the weekly basis. To trade-in earlier and have both - more potential and risk - you can use the daily basis instead. But the risk of a false signal is slightly higher.
2. OBV weekly
OBV stands for On-Balance-Volume and symbolize the activity of "smart money". Means a new high in OBV symbols massive institutional activities and could be interpreted that there is a lot of big money in the stock. On the other side new lows symbol the complete opposite. As you can see in the chart above the idea is to figure out new extreme points and use them as an investment chance.
In my opinion, we currently see a big uncertainty from institutions about the plans AT&T is planning to go. Or more likely because of the uncertainty the big money went out of the stock to observe the ongoing events and the next steps of the company from the side lane.
This brings me to think about against the main stream and feels a lot like over fearing. For me a good signal to get in, because as soon as the smart money comes back, the stock price is likely already jump by 10% or more.
3. CMV weekly
The Chaikin-Money-Flow stands for buying pressure when positive and for selling pressure when negative. As you find in the Chart, very often a new low of the CMV leads to a massive return reaction in the chart price. Therefore I am thinking again with this new all time low, the technical pressure to the upside is already in the making and could lead to a new buying period over the next couple of month.
What do you think about my interpretation on AT&T? Is it a buy, a hold or still a stock to short? I am already excited about your additional indicators that had work for you and what this indicators may tell about the next move of the AT&T stock.
Please also feel free to comment critic on my interpretation, but it would be great, when you also add some value how to do better in future.
Again thank you very much for your time and if this was value for you, you are always welcome to donate. That helps me to stay motivated in sharing my analysis.
Best wishes and maximum profit for all of you.
Daniel from EcoFinLife
>>> When all passengers in a boat are leaning to much over port it's time to go to starboard. Earlier than later the others will follow. <<<
FCEL: FuelCell Energy Inc, Shrot1- CCI 20 is below 0. (Bearish )
2- Beak down the resistance. ( little bearish )
3- The red line is below the White line of “ACL” (self-made indicator) .( super Bearish ) (ADL indicator)
4- "Multi analyzer" (self-made indicator) is downtrend and is -4 right now. ( bearish )
5- Close is below the red and white line ( Bearish )
6- Mid-term channel (LR of 9months) is ascending (Bearish )
7- Long-term trend is sideway (sideway )
8- In bottom half of Mid-term channel ( bearish )
9- around middle of channel ( little bearish )
Overly , Bears are stronger
Buying is not suggested right now, 2$ may be a fair price! We should talk about it later.
Buying is also suggested after breaking the resistance around 5.95$
Short
SL: 5.8
TP1 : 2
TP2: depend on the setup (I will clarify later)
Beyond the technical: (do your analysis, I’m not educated in the case of fundamental analysis academically)
Fair Price to Intrinsic Value: 3.05
To summarize my fundamental opinion on this stock:
So bad ( a Super bearish)
In case of good stocks I prefer to be an investor not a trader, but trading with lower Trading with smaller amounts can increase the overall profitability without any unreasonable risk.
JPM JPMorgan Chase Neutral1- CCI 20 is perfectly over 140. (sideway )
2- a little close to Resistance than support. ( little bearish )
3- The red line is over the White line of “ACL” (self-made indicator) .( Bullish ) (ADL indicator)
4- "Multi analyzer" (self-made indicator) is uptrend and is 5 right now. ( Bullish )
5- Close is over the red and white line ( Bullish )
6- Mid-term channel (LR of 9months) is ascending (Bullish )
7- Long-term trend is Bullish ( little Bullish )
8- In bottom half of Mid-term channel ( bearish )
9- around middle of channel ( little bearish )
Overly , Bulls are stronger
Buying is suggested in reaction to bottom of the channel.
Buying is also suggested after breaking the resistance around 173$
SL: depend on the setup (I will clarify later)
TP1 : depend on the setup (I will clarify later)
TP2: depend on the setup (I will clarify later)
Beyond the technical: (do your analysis, I’m not educated in the case of fundamental analysis academically)
Fair Price to Intrinsic Value: 2.72
To summarize my fundamental opinion on this stock:
A little bad ( a little bearish)
In case of good stocks I prefer to be an investor not a trader, but trading with lower Trading with smaller amounts can increase the overall profitability without any unreasonable risk.
SHORT on GBP/JPYPrice is currently falling from a major resistance area on this pair.
I have a golden cross on the MACD and the RSI is also curving downwards from the Overbought state.
Here is the play I will be taking on this trade:
ORDER TYPE = MARKET SELL NOW
LOT SIZE = Micro lot (0.01) (0.02)
ENTRY PRICE = 156.911
STOP LOSS = 158.502 - 155 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT = 154.276 - 261 PIPS
Short on CAD/JPY Price has broken the uptrend line on the 4hr timeframe for this pair.
There is a small level of divergence as well on the chart and rsi.
The MACD is also curving in a downward motion after giving a golden cross.
Here is the play I will be taking on this pair:
PAIR = CAD/JPY
ORDER TYPE = MARKET SELL NOW
LOT SIZE = Micro lot (0.01) (0.02)
ENTRY PRICE = 90.877
STOP LOSS = 91.829 - 100 pips
TAKE PROFIT = 88.936 - 189 pips
ETHUSD - When to Start Selling? (Monthly 3MA, RSI & MACD)This is not financial advice blah blah blah and happy new year to all.
Observations from the Monthly ETHUSD Chart
+ The MACD histogram has been stuttering since the first time ETH hit around $2,500; the main drive was from $70~$2,500 it would seem.
+ The MACD 12MA (blue) has already flattened so maybe the tide is turning.
+ The RSI-based MA has flattened suggesting upward momentum has slowed down.
+ The RSI has been making lower highs and lower lows since around $2,500 suggesting slowing momentum.
+ If history is anything to go by, starting to sell when the monthly RSI makes a higher low after the peak seems a good idea.
+ The 3MA (applied due to quarterly logic?) seems to also show long term local or whole market cycle tops.
Any comments or thoughts, please share below in the comments.
Cheers.
Defined Entry & Exit Points Using MACD, W%R and 3EMA's
Easily define entry and exit points by using a simple crossover strategy using the indicators above. This
strategy is based on trend and momentum price movements. This strategy is described below.
Strategy: Defining Entry Points
Timeframe: 5 / 15 / 30 minutes
MACD - When the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, a upward trend may be occurring.
W%R - When the W%R line moves upward toward 0 and crosses the -50 line, an upward trend may be occurring.
3EMA - When the 20 MA cross above the 60 MA line, and both are above the 100 MA, an upward trend may be occurring.
When all three of these happen simultaneously, there is a 99% change that an upward trend is occurring. Your entry point should
be at a price point three to six cents ABOVE the 3EMA, MACD & W$R cross over line. Entering your position a few cents above the crossover line
reinforces that your entry is being done in an upward price movement instead of getting stuck in a sideways or downward price movement.
To Exit, simply use the reverse strategy of the Entry.
MACD - When the MACD line crosses below the Signal line, a downward trend may be occurring
W%R - When the W%R line moves downward toward - 100 and cross the -50 line, a downward trend may be occurring
3EMA - When the 20 MA crosses below the 60 MA line, and both are below the 100 MA line, a downward trend may be occurring.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator Visual EducationHello Traders,
Today I wanted to go over one of my favorite as well as one of the most widely used tools in trading, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
This moving average indicator was created invented in 1979 by Gerald Appel responsible for the MACD line and Signal line and later added to this was the histogram, developed by Thomas Aspray in 1986.
Now that you know who created the MACD indicator lets discuss the components of the indicator. The MACD indicator consists of 4 main components, the Signal line , the MACD line , the histogram and the zero line of the histogram often referred to as the baseline.
Below are the calculations of the different components to help you better understand what makes up this indicator.
MACD Indicator Components and Calculations (White Labelling)
Signal Line
Red colored smooth line
The signal line is simply an exponential (weighted) moving average (EMA) based on the prior 26 days closing price.
As with any EMA the formula looks like this: EMA = Closing price x 26 + EMA (previous day) x (1-26)
MACD Line
Blue colored rigid line
The MACD line, similarly to the Signal Line is also an EMA based on the prior 12 day closing price.
Also, similarly to the signal line it uses a similar equation to display the line which is: EMA = Closing price x 12 + EMA (previous day) x (1-12)
Histogram
Green and Red vertical bars charted around a horizontal axis known as the baseline.
The histogram is determined by subtracting the signal line from the MACD line. This is easier to interpret than looking at the two lines alone,
since it is sometimes difficult to tell if one curve is steeper than the other. The histogram is positive when MACD is higher than its nine-day EMA, and negative when it is lower. This oscillator is
definitely a nice touch to the indicator as a whole and my personal favorite indication for divergence which I will teach you more about in part 2 of this series.
Histogram Zero line Aka "Baseline"
This is the line in the center of the histogram oscillator that is also referred to as the baseline. This line is important as you will see later when I explain the signals this indicator creates. This line is calculated by the MACD Line and the Signal line crossing. Which is another way for you to see that the lines are crossing both bullish and bearish crosses.
The calculations behind each part of the indicator is not really information that you need to remember as @TradingView has put a nice suite of house tools for you to use that
calculate this for you but, I find that the more you know the better you are able to understand these charts and who knows, maybe someday this will help you crate your own
indicator using the pine script editor they also make available to us for free. Also, if you understand the math it helps you when editing the settings to adjust indicators better
per the asset you are trading.
MACD Indicator Signals (Yellow and Teal Labelling)
Now lets go over the signals that this indicator produces help with the way you can utilize this indicator to help you trade. A key note to remember is that the MACD indicator is a Moving average
indicator and is best used in a trending market. You can identify a trending market by looking for price action that is heading in one solid direction up or down. Tending markets are usually noted by “higher highs”
and “higher lows” in an uptrend and “lower highs” and “lower lows” in a downtrend . This indicator is best used to help you determine trend reversals. There are also 3 major signal components to this indicator but, in this first series we are only going to discuss 2 as it is important to understand this indicator before moving onto the next step and applying the more advanced features. These 3 major components are MACD line crossing over the Signal line and both signal line and MACD lines crossing over the zero line on the histogram .
MACD Cross (Yellow)
The top MACD line (red rigid line) crossing down over the Signal line (Blue smooth line) is a bearish signal and generally indicates a sell signal letting you know that the price action has potentially came to the end of an uptrend. Again, this is used mainly in trending markets and can be very helpful to assisting in taking profit in a long position or starting a new short position.
In contrast to the bearish MACD cross , you can also see on the bottom of the chart that there is an indication of a bullish cross of the MACD line (Red rigid line) over the Signal line (Blue smooth line). This would be a good indication the the downtrend has ended and it may be a good time to start a long position or close a short position.
The Histogram Zero line cross (Teal)
There are 2 signals you can get from this but the one that matters in my opinion the most is the signal line. So for the sake of explanation I have shown them both together as both bearish and bullish signals on the chart. Now that you know about the signal line and the MACD line it should be easy to identify when these two lines are crossing the zero line of the histogram that we have also discussed. As shown in the chart you can see that the bullish cross is showing the two lines coming from below the Zero Line and crossing above which would be a bullish signal and you would be looking for a buy, potential start of or continuation of an uptrend. On the contrary, if these lines crossed from above the Zero line below then this would be a bearish sell signal and you would be looking to open a short position, be looking for a reversal of an uptrend or continuation of a downtrend.
Now here are some key takeaways and tips you will want to always follow when using this or any other indicator.
#1: Make sure you know the type of market you are trading by analyzing the market structure. Is it trending and creating higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows? Or is it ranging in almost a rectangular box?
#2: KNOW YOUR INDICATOR and the best market it is used in, again, the MACD Indicator is best used in a trending market!
#3: This is probably the most important of the 3, It is a must that you learn everything about each indicator you are using and to never use ONE indicator/Oscillator for signals stand alone by itself. Trading just like anything else in life is a numbers game and the better statistics you have, the better outcome you will receive.
Congratulations Traders! You now know the basics of the MACD Indicator!!! I hope you will come back for part two and three of this series that I will be releasing after the new year to help some of the new traders entering this ever expanding community here on TradingVeiw!
Part 2: MACD and RSI Divergences Visual Education Release 01/01/2022
Part 3: Falling wedges and Fibs Release 01/02/2022
I hope you had a green year and look forward to learning and trading with all of you winners next year!
Happy New Years,
Savvy
#Bitcoin's Bull-Run Continuation...Bitcoin wicked down to $40,800 during November, shocking traders and causing extreme fear. With that, came Technical Indicators alerting us to the fact that #Bitcoin was extremely oversold. RSI hit previous support it had when it fell to $30,000 over summer. #Bitcoin is highly resilient and on-chain indicators, supply, historical data, TA. and fundamental analysis, are screaming that #Bitcoin will continue onwards towards $100,000 and maybe even well past that by next summer. Certainly, I don't have a crystal ball and ANYTHING could happen so, this is merely my opinion based on analytics, confluences, and discussion amongst others. This is NFA (Not financial advice)...
Bitcoin is going to $150K+ by July '22.
Why?
- Bitcoin/USD is showing great buy volume on the weekly chart. The bottom seems to have formed near the $40K region (due to liquidation mostly).
- Shorts are get destroyed right now, expect a squeeze to push us past key levels of resistance
- BTC/USD showing signs of reversal
- BTC/USD chart details support and key levels where $BTC has bounced
- RSI SMA 14 details simple moving average which $BTC has not fallen below after a rally from the bottom during halving cycle... KEY LEVEL TO WATCH!
- RSI has same levels of support as BTC/USD and is showing signs of reversal as well
- RSI showing extremely oversold at $40-44K area
- Remember, RSI works as a leading indicator... we are just getting started
- Market sentiment has improved... F&GI* reaching "fear" levels
- WEEKLY MACD showing possible convergence of of bullish cross in coming months
- 1D MACD has already signaled a bullish cross... we are far from seeing a bearish cross. I would expect one closer to next summer unless there is FUD
Overall, Bitcoin is extremely oversold and 2022 will bring new opportunities for crypto markets (regulation, adoption, awareness, and most importantly, time).
DESTINY ARRIVES ALL THE SAME.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
PS. Refer to my links to related ideas below to see how these predictions have played out so far :) Enjoy!
*F&GI: Fear & Greed Index
Bitcoin Daily Aggressive LongCOINBASE:BTCUSD daily is giving the opportunity for an aggressive long.
Today's bar broke a small trendline and MACD has crossed above the signal line.
I would say now is the time to get in if you want to be early on the next possible move up. If you want to be more conservative there will probably me more entries later on with more evidence but you will pay a higher price.
Bitcoin One HourAnother gap to fill
Short Term Target 48k
Next Target 54k
Long Term Target 20k
Need to break ATH before considering bullish option, short term trades are better for now.
Bullish outlook next 6 weeks to 54-64k
If we stay under ATH for more than another quarter, then bulls have failed and 20k is probable.
Need to check wave counts.
Bitcoin Two HourLooks like bitcoin wants to head lower before hitting 54k maybe its a good thing, a move a little lower has a good chance to reverse and go to 64k.
Been watching a few possible wave structures play out. I'll make a post tonight with a detailed EW count.
Thanks... also can't post links or talk in chat yet... need some likes.
Bear Market Bounce in Visa?Visa has had a rough quarter as fundamentals weaken in the increasingly crowded payments space. Now it’s rebounded toward areas where sellers may return.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the declining 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The credit card giant hasn’t quiet reclaimed this line but it’s getting close. It could be potential resistance.
Next is the price zone between roughly $216 and $220, which encompasses several potential levels. For example, the peaks of September, November and December of 2020, and the lows of May and September 2021. One or more of those could offer resistance.
Third, stochastics show an overbought condition following the recent bounce.
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