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Centered Oscillators

$QQQ Melt UpI have a few trend lines that appear to be pretty reliable. They don't need to be perfect but a good guide. Price might break through them for a day or so but as long as these trends are alive, it seems to obey fitting back between them. The bar patterns were taken from recent price action in relation to these trend lines and true ranges, so they should be relevant. Today's price action was intriguing. Despite the gap up which got sold early in the day, it rallied back. I think smart money sold the open and dumb money is bidding up price during cash session. It's been a predictable day-trading move-- wait for the volatile moves down to stop about mid-day and buy the dip. Easy. Well, lots of other things seem to point to me that sellers are going to take healthy profits off the board this week, and leave others to hold the bag, at least temporarily. A few things to start with. I have a simple script here with a gradient background to help me visualize things with colors. Here's this chart without that (for those that like charts very minimalistic) I'm also looking at the percentage of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) that are above their 200 day moving average. A lot of great investors like to 'play defense' when stocks are above about 70 or 80%. In other words, they aren't adding to positions and are taking big up days as opportunities to distribute profits. Here's the $VXN versus NAS100, basically the CBOE VIX but specifically for stocks within the Nasdaq 100. It's crossing over a 20sma today. While the Nasdaq is actually going up. If you look at the Options Skew on $AAPL I think you can get an idea of why volatility is going up as price is going up.. over-bullishness and greed. marketchameleon.com The level of bullishness on a 25 delta call versus 25 delta put on $AAPL is otherworldly. Market Chameleon doesn't provide older historical data, but its probably one of the most historic levels of extreme greed in the stock's existence. I'm also looking at the leaders within the NAS100, sorted by YTD% gains. The biggest gainers are starting to turn red on the shortest timeframes. For example: TSLA ZM MRNA DOCU PDD DXCM AMD REGN. Breadth may be running out and this may be on the back of $AAPL, the largest capitalized and heaviest weighted stock, which has moved up over 8.5% in the last 3 days. It may not be the end of the bull. I think unless we get a serious smackdown, who wouldn't want to buy a dip next week?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by chrism665
1
August 22 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Minimal Excess; Non-Separation Of Value; Untested POCs; Gaps Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week mixed with the S&P 500 recovering its all-time high on relative strength from the technology sector. Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s higher open on earnings and stimulus talks was followed by a balanced, low-volume session which migrated value to the top of prior balance. The market caught up to Monday’s delta, edging higher overnight on better than expected retail earnings, before liquidating, making a V-shape recovery, and resolving some resting liquidity at and above the $3,390 area. On Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled signs of a difficult recovery, the market left value behind on a spike which repaired some weak structure in the $3,350 region. Responsive buyers quashed Wednesday’s weak-handed initiative activity, driving prices higher into Friday’s monthly options expiration, albeit with minimal participation from the broader market. Overall, the week ended in balance, again. In light of dull participation and poor structure on both sides of the market, attention has to be shifted to other stimuli, such as the cessation of trend in heavily weighted index constituents and decreased dealer hedging flows, among other things. If momentum was to grow faint, there’s the potential for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the recent anxiety-driven activity. Still, the path of least resistance is up. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: GDP Estimate; Initial Claims; Consumer Spending; Core PCE Price Index; University Of Michigan Sentiment; Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; New Home Sales; Jackson Hole. Fundamental: Trading improves as China leads upswing; virus resurgence may delay negotiations. bit.ly Urban markets will recover after pandemic as Americans’ housing decisions evolve. bit.ly The ECB has signaled September to be a key month to read the economic recovery. bloom.bg China: Virus under control, V-shape recovery and strong demand, politics to worsen. bit.ly Majority of fund managers pulled out of LQD even after the Fed announced support. bloom.bg AMEX:LQD COVID-19 coronavirus drop in fuel demand to weaken credit metrics through 2022. bit.ly Fearing shipping crunch, retailers have initiated the earliest-ever holiday sales plans. reut.rs AMEX:XLY Despite recovery, economists suggest an unemployment tsunami maybe coming. bit.ly The peak leisure travel season is ending, and so might airlines’ modest recovery. bit.ly AMEX:JETS American Airlines Group (NYSE: AAL) attracts shorts on suspension of flights. bit.ly Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) resumed job cuts, in-line with cost-cutting plans. reut.rs Deere & Co (NYSE: DE) shares hit ATH after company lifted its full-year forecast. reut.rs 3 new U.S. stock exchanges are set to launch by the end of this September. reut.rs Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) weighs the kill switch for political ads after elections. reut.rs Canada June retail sales rose by a record 23.7%, rising above pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs Investor concern over Democratic win and tax increases valid, but overdone. mgstn.ly Eurozone money supply surge will not spark inflation in the near term. bit.ly U.S. dollar loses value and influence as debt rises, tax consequences uncertain. bit.ly TVC:DXY Stimulus has largely been offset by a decrease in the volume of transactions. bit.ly As homebuilder confidence matches record high, mortgage delinquencies rise. refini.tv Rising value of gold is evidence that the U.S. could be debasing its currency. bit.ly Detailed analysis on global venture funding during the coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly Asset managers at major U.S. investment firms encourage stock buying. bit.ly Workers win on Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to test coronavirus vaccine in 60,000 volunteers. reut.rs Delay in fiscal support is negative for the US economy and consumer facing sectors. bit.ly Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) hit sales record on the online shopping surge. reut.rs Market rally has more to do with asset inflation, which is fueled by liquidity support. bit.ly Corporations will assume the burden of safety, rising costs and lowering capacity. bit.ly People ready to start their household growing again, builders are playing catch up. bloom.bg General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) bets on electric Cadillacs, micro vans. reut.rs Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) expects slower cash burn as bookings improve. reut.rs Fed policymakers see more easing ahead to help brace economy, sustain recovery. reut.rs OPEC+ pressed oil nations pumping above targets to cut more in August-September. reut.rs Lowe’s Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW) beats sales expectations on spending surge. reut.rs NY Fed’s index of real-time economic data showed a significant rise in its first revision. bit.ly Inflation is happening in the basket of goods that excludes food, fuel and housing. bloom.bg Analysis confirms the picture of rising income inequality and slowing income growth. brook.gs Sentiment: 30.4% Bullish, 27.2% Neutral, 42.4% Bearish as of 8/19/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,109,556,133 as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42% as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY SPCFD:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO TVC:USOIL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
QTUM- On fire! Now or wait for the pullbackPropelled by the news of offline staking, mainnet and potential DeFi project, QTUM is on the hot steak lately. One of the two famous smart contract platform projects, along with NEO, from China back in 2017. It is trading below its long-term S/R lvl and is about 96% from its ATH (Check my links below for other coins that are down over 90% from their ATH- SNT & NANO). On the daily time frame, it seems very over-extended so pullback may be imminent. I would not mind hopping onto the bandwagon now with small order because next resistance lvl is still 20% away and add onto the position on the pullback.
Long
by Libratus
8
CCI Divergence and Liquidation VolumeGLD and TLT led ETF redemptions in the previous 7 days indicating a shift away from defensive sentiment. SLV played catch up in July-Aug, ripping to 27.39. Among the price/volume family of indicators, CCI showed the most dramatic price divergence. CCI cooled down from 401 to 124.90 while price rose 25% in the same time frame. Using anchored VWAP from July 16th, prior to the face ripping rally, we can see that the average holder from that point in time is in the money, and the VWAP is behaving like support. From last week's blowoff top, Anchored VWAP is behaving as resistance. This week 's price channel is almost double in volume vs last week. This is a hands off moment to spectate the consolidation for rally participants who cleared their positions in the money recently. I am looking for a bigger pullback, otherwise I would rather trade other asset classes.
AMEX:SLV
by UnknownUnicorn3390306
If you didn't know which company this was, would you buy?Would you buy purely on the technicals not knowing what stock this is? It's tempting! Looking at a long-term monthly chart over a 30+ year time frame you can see each time RSI reached the 32.6 level this stock has bottomed. The large time frame over which this has been observed strengthens my confidence that this could be yet another bottoming for this stock. The last four instances dividend yield has peaked above the current 7.88% annual dividend yield, this has also corresponded with a major bottom for this stock. On a weekly frequency, the MACD MAs have been establishing a series of higher lows further confirming a long-term bottom is forming. Lastly, the 200 Monthly EMA has been a strong support line over this 30+ year time frame. It looks as if the 200 EMA has held once again and price is now working it's way up of this support area. From a purely technical perspective, I would buy this stock. Even if this stocks hovers sideways along its 200 Monthly EMA there is a nearly 8% dividend to collect. With all that said, I do think this is a controversial stock but I think there's a compelling fundamental story too. Gross margin % and operating margin % have been steadily increasing over this long time period. There are also new frontiers (such as cannabis $CRON) which have the potential to be profitable investments in the long-run. However, Juul is an example that hasn't worked out well and resulted in losses for the company. The company currently trades at 9.41 full-year forecasted earnings and price-to-sales ratio of 3.85. I still think this is an opportune time to get in at cheap valuations supported by technicals meanwhile collecting a large and sustainable dividend.
NYSE:MOLong
by Kappy
5
Feedback, concept common in Electronic EngineeringAn experimental application of feedback concept common in Electronic Engineering, attempting to present additional value/insight to the Indicators The above chart presents example of negative and positive feedback applied on momentum adjusted moving average (MaMA) and rate of return (RoR). Feedback concept in Electronic Engineering Negative feedback (or balancing feedback) is applied to reduce the fluctuations, whether caused by changes in the source or by other disturbances. The applied negative feedback can improve performance, gain stability, linearity and reduce sensitivity to parameter variations due to environment. Whereas positive feedback tends to lead to instability via exponential growth, oscillation or chaotic behaviour Mathematical approach explained in description of "Rate of Return (RoR) by DGT" added as link to this idea, and an additional application of feedback efect presented in "Momentum adjusted Moving Average by DGT" also linked to the idea
by dgtrd
2