AMD Short TERM Trading opportunityHi everyone, as always I am back, for another late night T.A. It gets me pretty excited to think about what is going to happen this month. So many stocks are near very pivotal resistances or supports and it truly is a great time to be alive. Speaking of pivotal points, I hope you all saw that Apple had a HUGE spike up last week, along with my long time favourite, AMD. I have always had an extremely bearish outlook on AMD, as you can tell from my past posts, but I think I am finally becoming an AMD bull, atleast for the time being ;). For now though, check out my T.A as to why I think this.
Elliottwave Analysis: The elliottwave analysis for this stock has taken me so long to figure out. I attempted to figure it out yesterday but I was seriously unable too. There is just so many possibilities, and measuring out the ratios seemed so challenging, but I have figured it out. Something that helped me choose my wave count, was that I would always compare the fibonacci ratios, and if the ratios seemed weird at the tops and bottoms of different waves, I would look at a different count. For example, if the wave 3 stopped at a 1.414 extension, I would immediately choose a different count, since that is such an awkward extension for a wave 3. So the wave count right now, is that we are in a larger cycles wave c of the wave 5. We have already finished wave 1, which is easy to see on the 15 minute and are headed up. How far up? Well< I am assuming that we are on our way to the 85-87 price target. This is because, it is a 0.764 extension of the wave a-b of wave 5, but it is also the 0.764 extension of the wave 1-3-4. Because these ratios align so perfectly, I am more incline to think that the wave c will hit somewhere here as opposed to the 0.618 or the 1:1 extension. In addition to this, on the 15 minute I have charted out what I suppose to be the wave count for the wave c of the wave 5, and using the wave 1 provided, I figured that the end of the wave, will hit the 3.618 extension of wave one, which also happens to be the 85 dollar range. Because of this large cluster of fibonacci extensions, I strongly believe that this is where we're headed. And if I am wrong, we will know right away, since I am setting the stop at the prior swing low (75.33). So that concludes the elliott wave analysis
Moving average analysis: The moving average analysis is telling me that we are also headed up. On the 15 minute, we have rested along the 55 ema for quite sometime, leading me to think we are going to be leaping off of it soon. On higher time frames, I am a bit weary, since we have no support except for the 13 ema on the 2 hour, which isn't that comforting.
RSI Analysis: The Rsi for this chart is really interesting. On the 15 minute we see some very strong bullish divergence and on the 1 hour, we see that the RSI keeps hitting incredibly high levels, but is also seeing a lot higher lows each and every time. This continues up on everytime frame until the daily. We are constantly seeing higher price action and higher rsi highs and lows. This is a really strong sign that we will continue to head upwards.
MACD analysis: On the MACD we are seeing that a move upwards is definitely on the way. On the 15 minute, we are hovering just below the zeroline reversal, but the positive ticking rsi leads me to believe it is another leap upwards for this week.
On the one hour, it is kinda bearish, since we have seen a bearish cross. Although, on the daily, we are continuing our exponential move upwards, which leads me to believe that we aren't headed down just yet.
All in all, it will be an exciting week for AMD. I am expecting that we hit the 85-87$ range which is a 10% return on your trade. In addition to this, the risk is only 2.64% or the 75.33. This is roughly a 4:1 risk to reward which is beautiful. I'll keep you posted as the trading week continues, and let you know if I am exiting the trade early or I am riding this wave even higher. Best of luck trading, and I hope you have a great long weekend.
