Nvidia Is waaay too hotEven though it is possible for price to go beyond the 3rd STD, It usually doesn't remain there for long before it has to cycle back to test lower levels. However, hype stocks can lead people to keep buying in fear of missing out. We all know that is a rookie mistake. That's why, even though NVIDIA is an awesome company, I would instead prefer to buy at a discount.
No one knows what price will do tomorrow. But it's best to have the odds on our side. And when a situation seems risky, even though it's promising, it's usually the best just to step back. Even if you have to let go a great opportunity where price rises, you will still be better off. Because a strategy consisting of chasing the trend will inevitably end poorly. The correct approach is trying to find opportunities where the price isn't too hot, and you believe in the future of the company.
One must look for ways to determine if a new trend is forming. Not trying to catch the current one. If the price is already in a clear trend, it's best not to jump in right away, but look for a cool off before taking a position. Also, when considering individual stock's it's important to study the related indices as they will give more context to where the stock is in contrast to its pears with similar situations.
By looking at the CME_MINI:ES1! and CME_MINI:ES1! It's noticeable that these indices are also overheating. Just to be clear, I don't believe we are at the peak yet, but we will soon be there. Just be patient, don't tell price what to do, let it hit you about its next move and prepare for all scenarios.
Centered Oscillators
NVIDIA updateRecently, test of finding a top turned out to be a success. However, after entering into an uptrend on lower timeframes, price had a sudden drop while it was nearing all-time highs. This puts in risk the first trade of the referenced idea at risk.
The reason we get a sell signal is because: The recent raise in price action was not enough to overcome the downward movement of the correction. However, the 25 MA usually works as a key support-resistance. Therefore, it's currently being used as support, but if this support fails its likely price will return to the current lows where the 25 MA would most likely become resistance and would test price action before determining to create a new low or continue an uptrend. The best movement for technical uptrend health is a slight correction into current lows before forming a new uptrend.
This movement will also be important for the SP:SPX as NASDAQ:NVDA holds a quite large share of the index at the moment. This could be the formations of the downtrend brought by the cyclicality of uptrends and downtrends. As it was mentioned in the referenced idea.
eye on the Factors Behind Long CADJPY: A Detailed ExplorationTechnical Outlook:
According to the technical outlook for CADJPY, the current trend is bullish, and the sentiment is oversold based on the 7-period RSI indicator .
The market is approaching a significant support area at 115.742, which indicates a highly probable bullish movement .
Another technical analysis suggests that CADJPY is very bullish .
However, it's important to note that technical analysis is subjective and should be used in conjunction with other factors for decision-making.
Economic Calendar:
The search results do not provide specific information about the economic calendar for CADJPY.
It is important to consider economic events and indicators that may impact the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) when making trading decisions.
The US economic calendar is considered important since the US is the largest world economy, and its indicators can have significant effects on other markets and currencies .
The organizations that publish meaningful indicators with a great impact on the markets include the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Energy Information Administration .
Is the Bitcoin Bull Run on Fumes? Bullish Wedge?Bitcoin (BTC), the enigmatic pioneer of cryptocurrencies, has captivated investors with its volatile price swings and potential for massive returns. After a strong incline in recent months, questions are swirling about the sustainability of this bullish trend. One technical analysis pattern catching attention is the bullish wedge, and its potential to signal a reversal.
The Bullish Wedge: A Double-Edged Sword
The bullish wedge is a chart pattern formed by two converging trendlines, one acting as resistance and the other as support. While it initially suggests a continuation of the uptrend, a breakout from the lower trendline can indicate a potential price decline.
Here's why the bullish wedge is a double-edged sword for BTC investors:
• Continuation Pattern: If the price breaks above the resistance line with increasing trading volume, it can be interpreted as a confirmation of the bullish trend. This would suggest that buyers are accumulating BTC at higher prices, potentially pushing the price further upwards.
• Reversal Pattern: A breakdown below the support line, particularly with significant selling volume, could signal a trend reversal. This would indicate that sellers are overpowering buyers, potentially leading to a price decline.
Is This the End of the Bull Run?
Whether we're witnessing the tail end of the BTC incline depends on several factors:
• Price Action at the Wedge: Closely monitoring the price action at the wedge's apex (the point where the trendlines converge) is crucial. A clean breakout above resistance with strong volume suggests a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, a forceful breakdown below support with high selling pressure indicates a potential reversal.
• Technical Indicators: While the bullish wedge is a valuable tool, it shouldn't be used in isolation. Combining it with other technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can provide a more comprehensive picture. Overbought readings on the RSI or bearish divergences on the MACD could signal a potential reversal despite the wedge pattern.
• Fundamental Factors: External factors like regulatory changes, institutional adoption, and broader economic conditions heavily influence the cryptocurrency market. Positive news on these fronts can bolster the bullish momentum, while negative developments can trigger a sell-off.
Beyond the Bullish Wedge: Other Considerations
Predicting the future of Bitcoin is notoriously difficult. Here are some additional factors to consider:
• Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment can fuel upward price movements, while bearish sentiment can lead to a decline. Gauging investor sentiment through social media analysis or news outlets can provide valuable insights.
• On-chain Analysis: Analyzing on-chain data, such as active addresses or exchange inflows/outflows, can reveal investor behavior and potential buying or selling pressure.
Navigating the Uncertainty: What Investors Can Do
While the bullish wedge presents a potential turning point, it's not a guaranteed indicator. Here's what investors can do:
• Employ Risk Management: Always implement stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses if the price falls below a certain level.
• Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your crypto holdings and consider other asset classes to manage overall portfolio risk.
• Stay Informed: Keep yourself updated on the latest developments in the cryptocurrency space, including technical analysis, market sentiment, and regulatory changes.
Conclusion
The bullish wedge presents an intriguing scenario for Bitcoin's price trajectory. While it raises the possibility of a trend reversal, a confirmation requires a breakdown below support with significant selling pressure. By combining technical analysis with other factors like market sentiment and fundamental analysis, investors can make informed decisions. Remember, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and a healthy dose of caution is always advisable.
KRRO a biotech company with earnings coming LONGKRRO is in the biotechnology space in the gene-editing realm. It is in portfolios of C. Woods .
A recent analyst gave it an upside to 100 which is very favorable given its product line and track
record with an all-time high of about $250 ( which is about 450% over current valuation)
On the one-hour time frame, it has had a great week and is breaking out over its moving
averages as well as bullish momentum on the dual TF RSI indicator. This is a stock-long trade
in the biotechnology sector which is prognosticated to be among the best of 2024. The dramatic
reversal on the chart tells me this is a long entry. Targeting $57.5 in the short term and
$75.00 for most of the position in consideration of the analyst report.
A cyclical historyWe have all heard that the economy works in cycles, and so does the market. But what does this truly mean? Has anyone actually been able to show you where you can see these cycles occur? Well, here is a great graph that will show you how. By looking at the 6-month time frame, the percentages of stocks above the 20 daily MA, you are achieving 2 things.
Seeing price action at the timeframe used to declare technical recessions
Seeing the percentage of stocks in a short term uptrend or downtrend as the complement is also true
Here it's quite easy to see how an important world event unfolded with a clear, repeatable pattern. When the percentage oscillates heavily, it allows for many technical resets, causing a healthy uptrend when the percentage returns to above 50% by the end of the semester. Another patter is that after a period of over-performance, a period of under-performance is followed and vice versa.
When looking at world events, just remember at the end of the day we are all a number in a larger scheme. And the laws of statistics will end up controlling our outcomes, as there must be balance in all binomial systems. Even when biases can be present in distributions, the more we generalize and zoom out, the more we can see the statistical convergences in human behavior. At the end of the day, our lives are influenced by fractals, some of which we are not even aware exist.
Mexico gives a sign of lifeAfter staying over a month at the lowest levels of the year, almost 10% down for the year, but finally the market has been able to recover. But the fundamental data that has been pushing this move up is quite bizarre. Perhaps we are out of the water and I hope so as some other positions in Mexican stocks will be affected by the performance of this recovery. So far the recent move looks promising as it has clearly broken above the 25MA which will now serve as support as price attempts to climb into a higher deviation. Successfully breaking above the 200MA would place the index out of trouble for the coming time. Let's hope for the best and If the USA rides into euphoria, perhaps Mexico can ride along as well.
Additional to the analysis here, I give a great visual description of what my indicators tell me and how I read them. The same is true for the short term deviation, which helps me see the finer movements of price action.
Crazy people making crazy claimsRecently news outlets have been reporting in 2 things about the US-Mexico relationship 1st is the super peso. 2nd is the lowering of interest rates in the USA. When looking at the news I saw multiple articles contradicting themselves. Saying things like "the mexican peso got stronger because of the rasing inflation" or as in this one where it says the "the advancment is atributed to the coments of Jerome Powell, which gave hope to rate cuts" as you can see in this one : elmanana.com.mx
Meanwhile you have this one which shows raising inflation in Mexico, which I have to admit it's true, the cost of living in mexico is rising. This means that every day the mexican peso es less able to afford goods or services.
www.msn.com
On the other hand with the united states' recent slight decrease in inflation has prompet the FED to be more inclined to realize a rate cut. This in order to boost the markets before the elections. This is very likely to excite the markets, as money from bonds will likely migrate to the stock market. Contrast this with Mexico where the central bank is claiming to reach it's inflation target by the end of 2025.
www.msn.com
For these people I have some basic economic facts they should be aware of. When you have rasing inflation your currency doen't apreciate it depreciates. Thats because you aren't able to afford buying as much with the same amount. Therefore if the inflation of you currency increases while the inflation on another currency decreases then the most likely outcome is that the decresing inflation currency will apreaciate in contrast to the other one. Aditionally if the US market begins to grow at a faster rate in contrast to the mexican market then the currency will also depreciate. Therefore saysing that the lowering of interest rates in the USA is good for the mexican peso is just insane.
AAPL Signals Short Term DropOf the 71 times AAPL triggers a sell on my RSI indicator (the magenta arrow at the bottom of the chart), the stock drops 97.143% of the time in the following 25 trading days. During 37% of the successful drops, the stock moves upward for 1-4 more days after the signal occurs in what I call the delay period.
What qualifies as a successful drop? The sell signal was triggered based on the closing price of AAPL stock on July 10, 2024 at 232.98. This means 97% of the time the stock will move below this closing price in the near-term. 2.85% of the time, the stock does not drop below this price over the following 25 trading days. The stock has always dropped below the signal closing price by at least 0.266% over the next 100 trading days.
On the chart above, the red boxes at the top are the delay zones of interest. The larger red box contains 100% of all delayed movement. The smaller box contains the stock's top or peak of the delay for 50% of the occasions. The same holds true for the two large green target boxes on the bottom. The final downward movement bottoms in the smaller green box 50% of the time, while the much larger green box contains bottoms or valleys for all downward movement.
This delay period of potential continued upward movement has historically had a maximum 3% gain before the stock eventually dropped. Regarding the bottom of the drop. Over the next 25 bars, it can occur on any day in the range with the median bottom occurring by day 8. 75% of the bottoms have occurred before day 18. The stock drops a minim of 0.266%, and median of 5.021%. 25% of the bottoms are no lower than 2.152%, while 75% of the drops are 8.3% or less.
The four shallowest drops over the next 25 days have been 0.266% (September 2010), 0.312% (February 2017), 0.827% (March 2019), and, 0.868% (August 2020) while the four deepest drops have been 63.23% (August 2000), 26.58% (December 1999), 26.51% (January 2006), and 24.80% (September 1999). The most recent double-digit percentage drop was 15% in April 2019. All shallow drops occurred in the most recent strong bull market, while the largest drops were part of the dot-com bubble burst.
While this current potential drop will likely avoid the sharper end of sell-offs, it is always interesting to see the strength and accuracy of signals. Historical movement is not indicative of future movement, but it is good to have as a data point.
WTI Crude Oil Falls for the 4th Straight DayWTI Crude Oil has been trending consistently lower dating back to Friday reverting to the $80 "magnet" that has continually attracted prices since Q4 2022.
In a rangebound market like this, traders may consider selling rallies meaningfully above $80 and buying dips toward $70, using oscillators like RSI to identify overbought and oversold markets.
-MW
Perfect example of Bearish DivergenceBoth OBV and RSI show weakness as price makes a higher high, this is a perfect indication of a trend reversal. OBV (on balance volume) measures buying and selling pressure, RSI (relative strength index) measures the momentum of price. Combining these 2 indicators allows you to identify a change in the market before price does.
Copper Five Dollar TargetPossible distribution pattern incoming that'll take about 2 years to playout. The selloff that'll play afterwards will be quick like usual based on what we've seen in the past. 2008, 2011, and 2022.
Keeping an eye on MACD will help time a top if we dont see a breakout from the channel.
DXY Seems to be going sideways with a upward biasCurrently, the DXY is touching the 25MA. Usually, price tends to bounce off this line or cross it and test the price action, determining if price should go lower or higher. Here we can see this test play out. With quite a bit of support, it's possible that price will continue to move along this sideways trend. Since the sideways movement is indeed going upward, we want to follow the trend, therefore we are long.
Furthermore, the stop loss is set exactly after some lower lows, since breaking below this level would mean that the current sideways uptrend is over and a downtrend has begun.
Avalanche (AVAX) Rises: Can It Break Thru $30?Avalanche (AVAX), a prominent smart contracts platform, is currently experiencing a surge in price. As of July 1, 2024, AVAX is trading confidently above the $28.65 resistance level, hinting at a potential breakout. This article delves into the recent AVAX price rally, explores the technical analysis behind it, and examines whether AVAX can conquer the critical $30 resistance zone.
A Bullish Breeze for AVAX
The ongoing AVAX price rally offers a sigh of relief for investors after a period of price stability. The current movement signifies positive momentum, with AVAX climbing steadily from its $27.40 support level. This upward trend is further bolstered by the fact that AVAX is currently trading above both the $28.65 resistance level and the 100-hourly simple moving average (SMA).
Technical Indicators Paint a Breakout Picture
Technical analysis is a valuable tool for understanding price movements and predicting future trends. In the case of AVAX, a crucial technical indicator is the recent break above the declining channel with resistance at $28.40 on the hourly chart. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum, potentially paving the way for a further price increase.
The $30 Hurdle: A Crucial Test
While the current trend is undoubtedly positive, a significant hurdle awaits AVAX at the $30 resistance zone. A decisive break above $30 would be a strong bullish signal, indicating continued upward momentum. If achieved, this breakout could lead to further price appreciation, with potential targets around $32.50 or even $34.00.
Support Levels: A Safety Net
It's crucial to remember that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile. Even in a bullish scenario, there's always the possibility of price corrections. For AVAX, the $29.35 and $28.65 levels act as critical support zones. If the price fails to surpass $30, these support levels can prevent a significant decline. Additionally, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from $27.37 to $29.95 provides another layer of support around $28.65. A drop below $28.65 could lead to a slide towards the $28.00 level and the 100 SMA (4 hours). The $27.40 zone would be the next important support to watch in case of a deeper correction.
MACD and RSI: Bullish Whispers
Beyond price action, other technical indicators offer valuable insights. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for AVAX/USD is currently climbing in positive territory. This suggests increasing bullish momentum. Additionally, the Hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering above 50, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral RSI reading implies that there's still room for the price to rise before a potential correction.
Looking Ahead: A Promising Future for AVAX
The current price rally for AVAX is a positive development, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the $30 resistance level. If achieved, this breakout could lead to further gains. However, investors should exercise caution and be aware of the crucial support zones at $29.35 and $28.65. Monitoring the MACD and RSI indicators can also provide valuable insights into the ongoing price trend. Overall, the outlook for AVAX appears promising, and a break above $30 would be a significant bullish signal for the cryptocurrency.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
General Motors Rallied. Now it’s Pulled Back.General Motors recently hit a two-year year high, and some traders may see opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price area between roughly $45.70 and $46. The automaker stalled at this level in early April and remained below it all of May. It then broke out sharply on June 10 and has remained above it since. GM tested the zone last week and bounced. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, a pair of bullish gaps after the last two quarterly reports may reflect positive fundamentals.
Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
Finally, prices have remained above the 50-day simple moving average. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also above the 21-day EMA. Those patterns may suggest GM has bullish intermediate and short-term trends.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Schlumberger Could Be OverboughtSchlumberger has bounced along with other energy stocks recently, but some traders may see a downtrend taking shape.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $47 level. It was near the lows in February and early May. SLB is now potentially stalling at the same point. Has old support become new resistance?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has fallen into the same price zone. That may reflect a bearish intermediate-term trend.
Third, the 50-day SMA had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA in early January and has remained there since. That may reflect a bearish long-term trend.
Finally, stochastics have hit an overbought condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Is the mexican index in danger?Even with great companies conforming this index, it's impossible to ignore the effect that Claudia Sheinbaum's victory had over the markets. It's shocking to see the pessimism of the markets after her victory. Unfortunately, this has now created an infliction point in the BMV:ME index. With no recent clear support, it could be possible for price to drop quite a bit more, opening great buying opportunities.
However, if price does not begin to reverse this trend soon, it's possible that we will test lower lows.
SHIB - This Indicator says SELLSHIB has just flashed a dangerous "SELL" alert.
This indicator is highly accurate in higher timeframes, especially the weekly. Look at all the "SELL" signals and how far the price drops after:
From a trendline perspective, SHIB HAS to stay ABOVE the current support line (Fibonacci line 0.236). If it falls under, SHIBA will be at risk of falling to the dotted line, which is BEARISH.
In case you missed it, my take on Bitcoin for the SHORT TERM:
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BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
USD/JPY: Keeping an eye on false breaksOn Friday we saw USD/JPY failed to hold onto intraday gains above 158 following the BOJ meeting, and close the day back beneath the prior 'MOF intervention' level to form a shooting star candle.
Prices drifted higher on Monday on relatively low volume, putting us once again on guard for either a false break of 158 or Friday's high.
We're seeing a simple countertrend move back down to the high-volume node around 157.30 or even 157, should US data surprise enough to the downside later today.
Unveiling the Falling Wedge: XRP Short-Term Boon Unveiling the Falling Wedge: A Short-Term Boon on the 4-Hour Chart
In the fast-paced world of day trading, identifying short-term opportunities is crucial. The falling wedge, a technical chart pattern, emerges as a valuable tool for traders seeking to capitalize on price movements within a specific timeframe. This article dives deep into the falling wedge, exploring its characteristics, how to identify it on a 4-hour chart, and strategies to leverage it for short-term gain.
Understanding the Falling Wedge
The falling wedge, as the name suggests, is a bullish reversal pattern. It's formed by two converging trendlines, with price action creating lower highs and lower lows, but at a decreasing rate. Imagine a wedge shape being squeezed from top to bottom, with the narrowing gap hinting at a potential price reversal to the upside.
This pattern signifies a period of consolidation where bears (sellers) are gradually losing momentum. While the price continues to fall, the decreasing distance between the trendlines indicates diminishing selling pressure. Bulls (buyers) start to accumulate, anticipating a potential breakout and price increase.
Identifying the Falling Wedge on a 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe offers a sweet spot for day traders, providing a balance between short-term volatility and clear trend direction. Here's how to identify a falling wedge on your 4-hour chart:
1. Trendline Construction: Draw two trendlines, one connecting the swing highs (peaks) and another connecting the swing lows (valleys). Ensure both lines are sloping downwards, forming the wedge shape.
2. Convergence: Observe how the trendlines converge as the price action progresses. The closer the trendlines get, the more likely a breakout becomes.
3. Volume Confirmation: While not a definitive indicator, an increase in trading volume accompanying the price move towards the wedge's apex (point of convergence) can strengthen the breakout signal.
Key Points to Remember:
• The duration of the wedge formation doesn't have a set timeframe, but longer wedges tend to have stronger breakout potential.
• The tightness of the wedge (how close the trendlines are) also influences the potential force of the breakout. Tighter wedges generally suggest a more explosive move.
• False breakouts can occur, where the price pierces the lower trendline only to fall back within the wedge. Proper risk management is crucial in such situations.
Strategies for Short-Term Gain
Once you've identified a valid falling wedge on your 4-hour chart, here are some strategies to exploit the potential short-term gain:
1. Breakout Entry: Enter a long position (buying) once the price decisively breaks above the upper trendline. This breakout signifies a reversal in bearish momentum and a potential price increase.
2. Price Target: Set your initial profit target at a level equal to the height of the wedge. Measure this distance from the breakout point and project it upwards.
3. Stop-Loss Placement: Place your stop-loss order below the lower trendline of the wedge. This limits potential losses if the price falls and breaks the support level.
4. Trailing Stop-Loss: Consider employing a trailing stop-loss as the price moves in your favor. This adjusts your stop-loss automatically, locking in profits while allowing for some price fluctuations.
Additional Considerations for Success
While the falling wedge offers a promising setup for short-term gains, remember that successful trading requires a holistic approach. Here are some additional factors to consider:
• Market Context: Analyze the overall market sentiment and any relevant news events that might influence the price action.
• Technical Indicators: Combine the falling wedge with other technical indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to confirm the breakout signal.
• Risk Management: Always prioritize risk management by using appropriate stop-loss orders and position sizing.
Understanding the falling wedge and the strategies discussed empowers you to identify potential short-term trading opportunities on the 4-hour chart. Remember, consistent practice, a balanced approach, and proper risk management are key ingredients for success in navigating the ever-evolving world of day trading.
Downtrend in Shopify?Shopify has struggled since late 2021 and now some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of high-volume bearish gaps after quarterly results on February 13 and May 8. Both drops came despite better-than-expected earnings, which may suggest the e-commerce stock is a distribution phase.
Second, SHOP rebounded from the last selloff but stalled at the preceding low around $68. (Also notice how the first drop occurred at a key low from late 2020.)
Have old support zones become new resistance areas?
Third, prices are reversing at the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Fourth, the 50-day SMA had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA earlier this month. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend.
Stochastics are additionally starting to dip from an overbought condition.
Finally, TradeStation data shows that SHOP is a highly active underlier in the options market, averaging about 110,000 contracts per day in the last month. Traders looking for downside in the next few weeks may consider a strategy such as the July 60-July 55 put spread. It’s quoted for less than $0.75 and could potentially widen to $5 if SHOP falls slightly below its recent low.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
CENTUARY PLY - Moving out of the Accumulation Zone. The stock has finally moved out of the consolidation zone. Late last December, the stock met with price rejection around 850 levels and it was pushed down below the 200 DMA levels. Then it started consolidating for almost three months now. The money flow had started increasing for the past month and the relative strength also started showing signs of recovery. Today, the stock moved out of the consolidation zone with a gap-up opening and a widespread up-bar. Of course, it did meet some supply. as we can see, the close was almost in the upper mid of the bar. The stock also moved above the short-term and the long-term moving averages and we can see the convergence of the averages as well. The relative strength also is moving into the positive territory. The volume has also started increasing and we can see increase in delivery volumes as well. The momentum has been positive for almost a month now. Looks like the stock is now poised to test the rejection zone at 850 again. However, we need to see some increase in the relative strength and the momentum as well. There is also a possibility of a retest of the accumulation zone.