Tesla Restet seting up for new uptrendHere is quite visible how tesla tested its support recently. As it had been mentioned on a previous idea, this level has become a critical one for short term price action. However, seeing price swing up in this manner and then finding support in the 2 moving averages, I find it hard to believe price will drop back to test the structure. If structure is broken, then price will indeed go lower. But I don't think that will be the case. Most likely, we are about to enter an uptrend
Centered Oscillators
Will BTC repeat its history?When prices begin to range away from the mean when dealing with up trending movements, power is lost in many indicators. When this happens, it usually means that price is currently in a bubble. In contrast to a ticker like the SP:SPX price usually doesn't behave in this manner. It's actually quite easy to understand why this is the case. If one was to make Monte Carlo simulations using a geometric Brownian motion, you would see some processes behave in a manner of a bubble. But if we take the aggregate of all movements and average them, or calculate a present value, the value tends to be around the center.
Well an index does quite the same but through different methods. By aggregating important tickers, they form an average based on different criteria, therefore are more susceptible to following the central limit theorem. Meanwhile, individual stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to violent movements which completely ignore technical indicators. This has led me to believe that the more a ticker is dependent on external factors the more it will follow traditional statistical and probabilistic methods. I have no proof for this claim, It's just what I believe based on experience.
When looking at central metric indicators, it's important to conciser there are two point in which these become unreliable. When price action completely ignores your distribution, such as it does here. And when the price is consolidating in the mean. When prices consolidates in the mean, it can be seen as a reset or as a very serious sign something is wrong. However, when minimums become unreliable then that is when one should really be scared, because that means something is seriously wrong. I will look for examples of this for you in the future.
When prices behave in this manner, I don't feel confident making predictions because when a ticker is more susceptible to speculation then price action behaves erratically and patterns become harder to find.
Finding a section to start tradingHello, traders.
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The BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator is an indicator expressed by synthesizing the MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators.
When the BW indicator
- records a high point, it is time to sell, and
- When it records a low point, it is time to buy.
The BW indicator in the price candle section is the same as the BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator, but it is an indicator that is expressed in the price candle when a horizontal line is formed at the highest or lowest point.
If you look at the position of the BW indicator expressed in the price candle section, you can know when to proceed with a trade.
I think you can be confident about starting a trade by referring to the status of the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D, 1W, 1M charts) indicator that can confirm the trend.
If you add the HA-Low, HA-High indicators here, you can create a more detailed trading strategy.
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.
The section that is expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well.
Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa.
Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
Possible break of market structureI've been bullish on tesla as I like the company and is currently in a very long-lasting swing low, however if price drops more than this minimum it is possible that market structure will break and will test the lows again. If we do see a break in market structure, then the first proposed trade of the referenced idea will fail. However, the second trade still stands, we buy and hold Tesla. It has solid financial fundamentals and has an amazing brand. I seriously doubt there would be further losses in this company. I will eventually talk about my fundamental analysis, but that won't be right now.
Bitcoin (BTC) market overview | 10.06BTC’s daily chart portrays a significant rise from $60,176 on May 10 to the $71,958 high, followed by a correction and sideways movement. This pattern suggests a phase of price discovery and consolidation. Volume spikes accompany major price moves, with decreased volume during consolidation. Key support and resistance levels are $60,176 and $71,958, respectively.
Oscillators provide a mixed picture, with the relative strength index (RSI) indicating neutral conditions. The commodity channel index (CCI) at 39 and the average directional index (ADX) at 24 also suggest neutrality. However, the momentum indicator at 1941 signals bullish sentiment, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level at 1007 indicates bearish sentiment.
Moving averages (MAs) show varied signals, but longer-term EMAs generally suggest reinforced bullish sentiment for the long-term outlook.
Given the mixed but generally positive signals from the longer-term moving averages and the momentum indicator, the overall outlook appears bullish. If bitcoin can break through the key resistance levels with strong volume, it could see significant upward movement.
WHITEBIT:BTCUSDT
Are we heading into euphoria or a technical reset?Here we can clearly see that the market structure keeps trending up, in very aggressive manners. Many technical resets have been made, and recently we went through one that lasted almost the entire Biden administration. Even though this reset is great for price action, it seems that it is quickly becoming parabolic. If price continues to behave in this manner, then we could be headed into euphoria. It's crazy to think that the yield curve has been inverted for this long.
Failure to reset technicals could bring us into a period with great short term yield. This could potentially captivate novice traders to become overconfident. Start paying attention to people around you if we keep on trending upward. Is your common foe suddenly talking about stocks and investments? I personally don't feel that way yet. But I can't deny the excitement people feel of finally reaching new time highs.
I'm not saying we are heading into a crash right now. But technicals and fundamentals are beginning to line up for what seems to be extreme optimism with flashing warning signs. I don't feel too confident in this market and would prefer to be buying at lower prices and see price trend up slower. A reset is necessary, or else we will be headed into an unhealthy and very violent uptrend.
Past Indications of uptrend health in the SPXEven when all empires fall, It's important to remember that as long as humanity in general continues to discover, explore, solve and invent, the better off we all are. That's why the price of indices always tend to go up. Even when they become stagnant, they eventually keep on increasing. The only thing that can revert this is a total collapse of society, which is unlikely in the present moment.
Nevertheless, it's also important to observe the health of a trend. When price increases violently, then a correction is likely to occur. These corrections can be severe or simple technical resets. Technical resets are good for everyone as it allows new buyers to enter the market as well as provide good buying opportunities. However, circumstances can lead the price to not have reset but instead have a correction or a crash. The difference between the two is that a correction is slow to reach the bottom, while a crash is a sudden move downward.
As one can see here leading up to the 2000 dot com crisis the uptrend was quite healthy, and it did a slight reset before going into euphoria, where price goes into the 3rd standard deviation range while pushing price higher and higher, before price lost momentum and eventually had a correction as the uptrend was way too aggressive. Meanwhile, leading up to 2008 crash there is a very aggressive uptrend, completely breaking into higher level deviations without going through the stages of a healthy uptrend. Causing the price to crash once the market realized that the system was still heavily corrupted by greed.
However, since things throughout time do improve, this allowed for another aggressive uptrend to form which instead of running into a crash it went into a technical reset which latter became the longest bull market in USA history.
Could we have bottomed early?Local maximums don't tend to follow the pattern of respecting overextensions like minimums do. This is mostly based on the positive bias people have of the future. Seeing a close this strong is a strong enough sign for the indicator of short term trend to become positive. If this is true then we should start pushing to new high, but if the market does so it risk overextending again but with the coming elections one could expect for the incumbent party to try to inflate stocks to have strong image heading into the polls. But by doing so it creates a high risk of over estimulation which could result in a time of euphoria followed by a crash. It's been 4 years since the 2020 crisis. The mode for recessions is every 3 to 4 years. If technicals begin to overextended and fundamentals to keep up, we might be headed to a new crisis. Technicals need to reset before going forward.
Possible entries to a Liverpool LongThis seems like a great buying point, looking at all the technicals, it would be hard for price to keep pushing down. However, the moving averages do tend to work as resistance and support, so it could be possible for price to drop there. However, It's unlikely price will continue to move down by much. And if so, price is likely to keep on rising. As this company has proven to be a go-to store for Mexicans looking for presents during the holidays, special events, sports gear and many others. Despite big competitors, this brand has lasted the test of time.
Minimum test on WALMART MexicoTesting a local minimum on WALMEX. Price has been trending lower, however it recently hit a very strong down movement. It seems as if the candles that have come out recently indicate that this drop has momentarily stopped. It's important to stay looking at how candles develop to avoid catching a falling knife, but price could possibly reverse here until it hits one of its moving averages
American Express May Be Sneaking HigherAmerican Express broke out to record highs in January. Now after six weeks of tight price action, some traders may expect further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the jump on April 19 after earnings beat estimates. AXP cleared the late-March closing high around $229 and proceeded to retest and hold that same level on May 3.
So, the current month’s low is near a previous month’s high. Has old resistance become new support?
Next you have a higher low above $234 this week.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. That may reflect a bullish short-term trend.
Finally, stochastics are near an oversold condition.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
3M Pulls Back3M is emerging as a potential turnaround story following years of downside. Now trend followers may take interest in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the trio of high-volume bullish candles since early March. MMM raised guidance, spun off its Solventum NYSE:SOLV health-care division and then ended with a consensus-beating quarterly report.
The result has been a succession of higher lows and higher highs. Is a new uptrend emerging?
Next is the July 2023 high of $94.59. Prices stalled at this level in early April and bounced above it on May 8. The 50-day simple moving average is in roughly the same place. If prices remain above those spots, it may suggest a more significant turn has occurred.
Finally, stochastics have dipped toward oversold territory.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Testing New MethodI've created my own model. For which I can see the current trend and trend formations. The mean returns indicator serves to observe the current trend in the past n days. It assumes that whenever mean returns is over 0 a long trend is occurring, while below 0 we are looking at a downtrend. This is the latest signal given by the program. Enjoy the signal, hope it's correct
What’s Next for the S&P 500?The S&P 500 tried to break out yesterday, but got rejected at the highs. Some traders might view the resulting bearish outside day as a potential reversal pattern. How much damage was actually done?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 28 peak of 5265. Notice how SPX made a new high by crossing this level on May 15. Yesterday’s pullback tested it and prices have bounced today. That may suggest old resistance is becoming new support.
Second, this chart includes our MA speed custom study. It shows the rate of change for the 10-day simple moving average. Notice how the oscillator jumped as the index recovered in early May. This sharp acceleration resembled the move in early November as the current bull run began.
Third is the relatively tight consolidation following the surge. That’s similar to other moments in late 2023. It may reflect a lack of selling pressure.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Is Soybean Oil Heating Up? Of the grains and oilseeds, soybean oil has been the clear laggard. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and even soybean meal have seen notable rallies over the course of the last 4-6 weeks. However, there are indications that may soon change. As ingredient buyers know, soybean oil typically trades at a significant premium to its rival palm oil. The chart below overlays a 5-year continuous chart of front month soybean oil futures prices along with a 5-year continuous chart of Malaysian palm oil futures. As displayed by the chart, in each instance over the past 5 years in which SBO’s premium has eroded relative to palm oil, we’ve seen soybean oil prices rally in excess of 15%.
Fund Positioning :
Extreme fund positioning is typically viewed as a contrary indicator. As such, managed money funds holding their largest net-short position in soybean oil futures of any point in the last 5-years adds to the bullish case in the immediate term. Per the last CFTC Commitment of Traders report, managed money was holding a net-short position of 58,748 contracts. In the instance that prices grind higher, short-covering on behalf of managed money could accelerate a move to the upside.
Technicals :
Lastly, the technical landscape of soybean oil also looks constructive. There is significant bullish divergence between the two most recent lows, and a standard 14-day RSI. In other words, the most recent successive lows came on less conviction. A break and close above the most recent swing high of 50 should lay the groundwork for a test of the swing-highs observed last July between 64 and 66.
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Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Downside in Dollar General?Dollar General fell sharply in 2023. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see further downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the large bearish engulfing candle on March 14, which occurred despite results beating estimates. The discount retailer stalled below that session’s high in April. This month, it stalled near the low. Has old support below new resistance?
Second, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) potentially marks a long-term downtrend by steadily falling across the chart. Prices are also stalling below the 50-day SMA and are back under the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). That may reflect weakness over the long, intermediate and short terms.
Third, stochastics are dipping from near an overbought condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
ADITYA BIRLA FASHIONS - Poised to moved up ?The stock saw a huge fall of about 50% from a high of 359. From the bottom, it has been struggling for almost a year to reverse the trend. And of late, you can see the attempt to move up, seeing some success. You can see a break of structure in the daily and now a break of structure in the weekly as well. The relative strength is also positive. The money flow which had dipped is now recovering. The momentum also had weakened recently and is now picking up. Today the stock moved past the price rejection zone at 277 with wide spread up bar with volume support. In the last few sessions, we saw some increase in delivery volumes indicating some interested buying coming in. If the stock sustains above 277 levels, we can see the stock moving up further north. The next destination could be 315 levels.
Bitcoin Leads the Charge: Bullish Signs Emerge Across Crypto MarA wave of optimism is sweeping across the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) at the forefront. After a period of consolidation, bulls appear to be taking charge, sparking positive momentum not only in Bitcoin but also in altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Fantom (FTM).
Bitcoin's Technical Analysis Hints at Upswing
Technical indicators for Bitcoin are painting a bullish picture. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of short-term trends, has begun to turn upwards. This suggests a shift in momentum, with the path of least resistance now favoring an upward price movement.
Further bolstering this bullish sentiment is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicator measures the momentum of price movements and currently sits in positive territory. This indicates that buyers are in control and there's room for further price appreciation.
Breaking Key Resistance Levels
A crucial level to watch for Bitcoin is $68,000. If bulls can successfully push the price above this resistance point, it could trigger a retest of the formidable barrier at $72,000. Reclaiming this level would be a significant victory for Bitcoin bulls, potentially leading to a continuation of the upward trend.
Bears Remain Vigilant
However, the battle lines are not yet definitively drawn. Bears, the market participants who profit from price declines, are not ready to concede defeat. If they can successfully push the price below the 20-day EMA and the broader moving average support levels, it could signal a potential reversal in the current trend. A drop below $60,000 could then be on the cards.
Beyond Bitcoin: Altcoins Join the Bullish Party
The positive sentiment is not limited to Bitcoin. Several altcoins are also exhibiting bullish signs. Here's a closer look at a few:
• Solana (SOL): SOL, known for its blazing-fast transaction speeds and scalability, has been on a tear lately. It's crucial to monitor technical indicators like moving averages and RSI to gauge its specific momentum.
• Fantom (FTM): FTM, a smart contracts platform focused on scalability, has shown promising signs. Tracking its developer activity and ecosystem growth can offer clues about its future trajectory.
A Word of Caution
While the current market sentiment is encouraging, it's vital to remember that the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Investors should conduct thorough research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Opportunities and Challenges
The recent bullish signs present both opportunities and challenges for investors. The potential for continued growth across the cryptocurrency market is exciting. However, the ever-present risk of volatility necessitates a cautious and informed approach.
Conclusion
Bitcoin appears to be leading the charge in a potential crypto market upswing. Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend, but resistance levels need to be overcome. Encouragingly, several altcoins are also flashing bullish signs, adding to the overall optimism. As always, investors should approach the market with caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
Info Edge (India) Ltd Showing Strong Up-Side MomentumStrong operating businesses
Strong Operating Cash generation year with a run- rate of c1000 Cr plus (pre Tax) annually and growing.
Negative working capital due to advance subscription fees (Rs 925 cr as on 31/12/23)
Asset-light business models
"Zero" Debt.
Well Defined approach towards Financial Investments
AIF structure for eventual and self-sustained independent financial investment business.
Partnered with reputed Sovereign Fund (Temasek Holdings).
AIF contribution commitment is currently pegged at ~USD 212.5m
Funds created with a term of 12-14 years.
Established Dividend payout track record.
Formal dividend policy of paying 25%-40% of standalone cash PAT.
Track record of consistent dividend payout for last 16 years. Paid 28% of cash PAT as dividend till date.
Info Edge is India’s premier online classified company with a portfolio of brands. It owns various brands in different fields like naukri.com (online recruitment), 99acres.com (online real estate), jeevansathi.com (online matrimonial) as well as shiksha.com (online education information services). It also acts as an investor and has invested in many start-ups in the online space and is actively growing its investment portfolio.
Company is almost debt free.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 55.9% CAGR over last 5 years
B2B revenues (as on date) comprise ~90% of overall Naukri revenue and includes:
Resume database access (Naukri & iimjobs)
Job Posting (response management)
Employer branding (visibility)
Application tracking tools (Zwayam)
eHire - Resume short listing and Walk-ins
Assessment services (Do-select)
■ B2C includes revenue from
Job seeker services
Career enhancement services (AmbitionBox, Coding Ninjas, Naukri Learning)
DXY about to be let loose!DXY retracement from it's last peak seems to have bottomed out, and is starting the next leg up to retest highs. Inflation is driving rates back up, or holding them up. While bonds occasionally sell off and yields rise. I imagine either other countries start lowering yields to prevent banking failures, or the US starts increasing yields to avoid dollar debt problems associated with inflation, the fed will probably exchange the banks bonds with higher yields so they can manage deposits without anymore losses. While the repo market drains... At some point the buck stops and the CB runs out of options.
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