BTCUSD SELLWe are selling let’s go, early set up today we are selling BTCUSD stops at the high target 1:2RRR
Centered Oscillators
A cyclical historyWe have all heard that the economy works in cycles, and so does the market. But what does this truly mean? Has anyone actually been able to show you where you can see these cycles occur? Well, here is a great graph that will show you how. By looking at the 6-month time frame, the percentages of stocks above the 20 daily MA, you are achieving 2 things.
Seeing price action at the timeframe used to declare technical recessions
Seeing the percentage of stocks in a short term uptrend or downtrend as the complement is also true
Here it's quite easy to see how an important world event unfolded with a clear, repeatable pattern. When the percentage oscillates heavily, it allows for many technical resets, causing a healthy uptrend when the percentage returns to above 50% by the end of the semester. Another patter is that after a period of over-performance, a period of under-performance is followed and vice versa.
When looking at world events, just remember at the end of the day we are all a number in a larger scheme. And the laws of statistics will end up controlling our outcomes, as there must be balance in all binomial systems. Even when biases can be present in distributions, the more we generalize and zoom out, the more we can see the statistical convergences in human behavior. At the end of the day, our lives are influenced by fractals, some of which we are not even aware exist.
Mexico gives a sign of lifeAfter staying over a month at the lowest levels of the year, almost 10% down for the year, but finally the market has been able to recover. But the fundamental data that has been pushing this move up is quite bizarre. Perhaps we are out of the water and I hope so as some other positions in Mexican stocks will be affected by the performance of this recovery. So far the recent move looks promising as it has clearly broken above the 25MA which will now serve as support as price attempts to climb into a higher deviation. Successfully breaking above the 200MA would place the index out of trouble for the coming time. Let's hope for the best and If the USA rides into euphoria, perhaps Mexico can ride along as well.
Additional to the analysis here, I give a great visual description of what my indicators tell me and how I read them. The same is true for the short term deviation, which helps me see the finer movements of price action.
Crazy people making crazy claimsRecently news outlets have been reporting in 2 things about the US-Mexico relationship 1st is the super peso. 2nd is the lowering of interest rates in the USA. When looking at the news I saw multiple articles contradicting themselves. Saying things like "the mexican peso got stronger because of the rasing inflation" or as in this one where it says the "the advancment is atributed to the coments of Jerome Powell, which gave hope to rate cuts" as you can see in this one : elmanana.com.mx
Meanwhile you have this one which shows raising inflation in Mexico, which I have to admit it's true, the cost of living in mexico is rising. This means that every day the mexican peso es less able to afford goods or services.
www.msn.com
On the other hand with the united states' recent slight decrease in inflation has prompet the FED to be more inclined to realize a rate cut. This in order to boost the markets before the elections. This is very likely to excite the markets, as money from bonds will likely migrate to the stock market. Contrast this with Mexico where the central bank is claiming to reach it's inflation target by the end of 2025.
www.msn.com
For these people I have some basic economic facts they should be aware of. When you have rasing inflation your currency doen't apreciate it depreciates. Thats because you aren't able to afford buying as much with the same amount. Therefore if the inflation of you currency increases while the inflation on another currency decreases then the most likely outcome is that the decresing inflation currency will apreaciate in contrast to the other one. Aditionally if the US market begins to grow at a faster rate in contrast to the mexican market then the currency will also depreciate. Therefore saysing that the lowering of interest rates in the USA is good for the mexican peso is just insane.
AAPL Signals Short Term DropOf the 71 times AAPL triggers a sell on my RSI indicator (the magenta arrow at the bottom of the chart), the stock drops 97.143% of the time in the following 25 trading days. During 37% of the successful drops, the stock moves upward for 1-4 more days after the signal occurs in what I call the delay period.
What qualifies as a successful drop? The sell signal was triggered based on the closing price of AAPL stock on July 10, 2024 at 232.98. This means 97% of the time the stock will move below this closing price in the near-term. 2.85% of the time, the stock does not drop below this price over the following 25 trading days. The stock has always dropped below the signal closing price by at least 0.266% over the next 100 trading days.
On the chart above, the red boxes at the top are the delay zones of interest. The larger red box contains 100% of all delayed movement. The smaller box contains the stock's top or peak of the delay for 50% of the occasions. The same holds true for the two large green target boxes on the bottom. The final downward movement bottoms in the smaller green box 50% of the time, while the much larger green box contains bottoms or valleys for all downward movement.
This delay period of potential continued upward movement has historically had a maximum 3% gain before the stock eventually dropped. Regarding the bottom of the drop. Over the next 25 bars, it can occur on any day in the range with the median bottom occurring by day 8. 75% of the bottoms have occurred before day 18. The stock drops a minim of 0.266%, and median of 5.021%. 25% of the bottoms are no lower than 2.152%, while 75% of the drops are 8.3% or less.
The four shallowest drops over the next 25 days have been 0.266% (September 2010), 0.312% (February 2017), 0.827% (March 2019), and, 0.868% (August 2020) while the four deepest drops have been 63.23% (August 2000), 26.58% (December 1999), 26.51% (January 2006), and 24.80% (September 1999). The most recent double-digit percentage drop was 15% in April 2019. All shallow drops occurred in the most recent strong bull market, while the largest drops were part of the dot-com bubble burst.
While this current potential drop will likely avoid the sharper end of sell-offs, it is always interesting to see the strength and accuracy of signals. Historical movement is not indicative of future movement, but it is good to have as a data point.
WTI Crude Oil Falls for the 4th Straight DayWTI Crude Oil has been trending consistently lower dating back to Friday reverting to the $80 "magnet" that has continually attracted prices since Q4 2022.
In a rangebound market like this, traders may consider selling rallies meaningfully above $80 and buying dips toward $70, using oscillators like RSI to identify overbought and oversold markets.
-MW
Perfect example of Bearish DivergenceBoth OBV and RSI show weakness as price makes a higher high, this is a perfect indication of a trend reversal. OBV (on balance volume) measures buying and selling pressure, RSI (relative strength index) measures the momentum of price. Combining these 2 indicators allows you to identify a change in the market before price does.
Copper Five Dollar TargetPossible distribution pattern incoming that'll take about 2 years to playout. The selloff that'll play afterwards will be quick like usual based on what we've seen in the past. 2008, 2011, and 2022.
Keeping an eye on MACD will help time a top if we dont see a breakout from the channel.
DXY Seems to be going sideways with a upward biasCurrently, the DXY is touching the 25MA. Usually, price tends to bounce off this line or cross it and test the price action, determining if price should go lower or higher. Here we can see this test play out. With quite a bit of support, it's possible that price will continue to move along this sideways trend. Since the sideways movement is indeed going upward, we want to follow the trend, therefore we are long.
Furthermore, the stop loss is set exactly after some lower lows, since breaking below this level would mean that the current sideways uptrend is over and a downtrend has begun.
Avalanche (AVAX) Rises: Can It Break Thru $30?Avalanche (AVAX), a prominent smart contracts platform, is currently experiencing a surge in price. As of July 1, 2024, AVAX is trading confidently above the $28.65 resistance level, hinting at a potential breakout. This article delves into the recent AVAX price rally, explores the technical analysis behind it, and examines whether AVAX can conquer the critical $30 resistance zone.
A Bullish Breeze for AVAX
The ongoing AVAX price rally offers a sigh of relief for investors after a period of price stability. The current movement signifies positive momentum, with AVAX climbing steadily from its $27.40 support level. This upward trend is further bolstered by the fact that AVAX is currently trading above both the $28.65 resistance level and the 100-hourly simple moving average (SMA).
Technical Indicators Paint a Breakout Picture
Technical analysis is a valuable tool for understanding price movements and predicting future trends. In the case of AVAX, a crucial technical indicator is the recent break above the declining channel with resistance at $28.40 on the hourly chart. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum, potentially paving the way for a further price increase.
The $30 Hurdle: A Crucial Test
While the current trend is undoubtedly positive, a significant hurdle awaits AVAX at the $30 resistance zone. A decisive break above $30 would be a strong bullish signal, indicating continued upward momentum. If achieved, this breakout could lead to further price appreciation, with potential targets around $32.50 or even $34.00.
Support Levels: A Safety Net
It's crucial to remember that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile. Even in a bullish scenario, there's always the possibility of price corrections. For AVAX, the $29.35 and $28.65 levels act as critical support zones. If the price fails to surpass $30, these support levels can prevent a significant decline. Additionally, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from $27.37 to $29.95 provides another layer of support around $28.65. A drop below $28.65 could lead to a slide towards the $28.00 level and the 100 SMA (4 hours). The $27.40 zone would be the next important support to watch in case of a deeper correction.
MACD and RSI: Bullish Whispers
Beyond price action, other technical indicators offer valuable insights. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for AVAX/USD is currently climbing in positive territory. This suggests increasing bullish momentum. Additionally, the Hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering above 50, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral RSI reading implies that there's still room for the price to rise before a potential correction.
Looking Ahead: A Promising Future for AVAX
The current price rally for AVAX is a positive development, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the $30 resistance level. If achieved, this breakout could lead to further gains. However, investors should exercise caution and be aware of the crucial support zones at $29.35 and $28.65. Monitoring the MACD and RSI indicators can also provide valuable insights into the ongoing price trend. Overall, the outlook for AVAX appears promising, and a break above $30 would be a significant bullish signal for the cryptocurrency.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
General Motors Rallied. Now it’s Pulled Back.General Motors recently hit a two-year year high, and some traders may see opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price area between roughly $45.70 and $46. The automaker stalled at this level in early April and remained below it all of May. It then broke out sharply on June 10 and has remained above it since. GM tested the zone last week and bounced. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, a pair of bullish gaps after the last two quarterly reports may reflect positive fundamentals.
Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
Finally, prices have remained above the 50-day simple moving average. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also above the 21-day EMA. Those patterns may suggest GM has bullish intermediate and short-term trends.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Schlumberger Could Be OverboughtSchlumberger has bounced along with other energy stocks recently, but some traders may see a downtrend taking shape.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $47 level. It was near the lows in February and early May. SLB is now potentially stalling at the same point. Has old support become new resistance?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has fallen into the same price zone. That may reflect a bearish intermediate-term trend.
Third, the 50-day SMA had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA in early January and has remained there since. That may reflect a bearish long-term trend.
Finally, stochastics have hit an overbought condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Is the mexican index in danger?Even with great companies conforming this index, it's impossible to ignore the effect that Claudia Sheinbaum's victory had over the markets. It's shocking to see the pessimism of the markets after her victory. Unfortunately, this has now created an infliction point in the BMV:ME index. With no recent clear support, it could be possible for price to drop quite a bit more, opening great buying opportunities.
However, if price does not begin to reverse this trend soon, it's possible that we will test lower lows.
SHIB - This Indicator says SELLSHIB has just flashed a dangerous "SELL" alert.
This indicator is highly accurate in higher timeframes, especially the weekly. Look at all the "SELL" signals and how far the price drops after:
From a trendline perspective, SHIB HAS to stay ABOVE the current support line (Fibonacci line 0.236). If it falls under, SHIBA will be at risk of falling to the dotted line, which is BEARISH.
In case you missed it, my take on Bitcoin for the SHORT TERM:
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BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
USD/JPY: Keeping an eye on false breaksOn Friday we saw USD/JPY failed to hold onto intraday gains above 158 following the BOJ meeting, and close the day back beneath the prior 'MOF intervention' level to form a shooting star candle.
Prices drifted higher on Monday on relatively low volume, putting us once again on guard for either a false break of 158 or Friday's high.
We're seeing a simple countertrend move back down to the high-volume node around 157.30 or even 157, should US data surprise enough to the downside later today.
Unveiling the Falling Wedge: XRP Short-Term Boon Unveiling the Falling Wedge: A Short-Term Boon on the 4-Hour Chart
In the fast-paced world of day trading, identifying short-term opportunities is crucial. The falling wedge, a technical chart pattern, emerges as a valuable tool for traders seeking to capitalize on price movements within a specific timeframe. This article dives deep into the falling wedge, exploring its characteristics, how to identify it on a 4-hour chart, and strategies to leverage it for short-term gain.
Understanding the Falling Wedge
The falling wedge, as the name suggests, is a bullish reversal pattern. It's formed by two converging trendlines, with price action creating lower highs and lower lows, but at a decreasing rate. Imagine a wedge shape being squeezed from top to bottom, with the narrowing gap hinting at a potential price reversal to the upside.
This pattern signifies a period of consolidation where bears (sellers) are gradually losing momentum. While the price continues to fall, the decreasing distance between the trendlines indicates diminishing selling pressure. Bulls (buyers) start to accumulate, anticipating a potential breakout and price increase.
Identifying the Falling Wedge on a 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe offers a sweet spot for day traders, providing a balance between short-term volatility and clear trend direction. Here's how to identify a falling wedge on your 4-hour chart:
1. Trendline Construction: Draw two trendlines, one connecting the swing highs (peaks) and another connecting the swing lows (valleys). Ensure both lines are sloping downwards, forming the wedge shape.
2. Convergence: Observe how the trendlines converge as the price action progresses. The closer the trendlines get, the more likely a breakout becomes.
3. Volume Confirmation: While not a definitive indicator, an increase in trading volume accompanying the price move towards the wedge's apex (point of convergence) can strengthen the breakout signal.
Key Points to Remember:
• The duration of the wedge formation doesn't have a set timeframe, but longer wedges tend to have stronger breakout potential.
• The tightness of the wedge (how close the trendlines are) also influences the potential force of the breakout. Tighter wedges generally suggest a more explosive move.
• False breakouts can occur, where the price pierces the lower trendline only to fall back within the wedge. Proper risk management is crucial in such situations.
Strategies for Short-Term Gain
Once you've identified a valid falling wedge on your 4-hour chart, here are some strategies to exploit the potential short-term gain:
1. Breakout Entry: Enter a long position (buying) once the price decisively breaks above the upper trendline. This breakout signifies a reversal in bearish momentum and a potential price increase.
2. Price Target: Set your initial profit target at a level equal to the height of the wedge. Measure this distance from the breakout point and project it upwards.
3. Stop-Loss Placement: Place your stop-loss order below the lower trendline of the wedge. This limits potential losses if the price falls and breaks the support level.
4. Trailing Stop-Loss: Consider employing a trailing stop-loss as the price moves in your favor. This adjusts your stop-loss automatically, locking in profits while allowing for some price fluctuations.
Additional Considerations for Success
While the falling wedge offers a promising setup for short-term gains, remember that successful trading requires a holistic approach. Here are some additional factors to consider:
• Market Context: Analyze the overall market sentiment and any relevant news events that might influence the price action.
• Technical Indicators: Combine the falling wedge with other technical indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to confirm the breakout signal.
• Risk Management: Always prioritize risk management by using appropriate stop-loss orders and position sizing.
Understanding the falling wedge and the strategies discussed empowers you to identify potential short-term trading opportunities on the 4-hour chart. Remember, consistent practice, a balanced approach, and proper risk management are key ingredients for success in navigating the ever-evolving world of day trading.
Downtrend in Shopify?Shopify has struggled since late 2021 and now some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of high-volume bearish gaps after quarterly results on February 13 and May 8. Both drops came despite better-than-expected earnings, which may suggest the e-commerce stock is a distribution phase.
Second, SHOP rebounded from the last selloff but stalled at the preceding low around $68. (Also notice how the first drop occurred at a key low from late 2020.)
Have old support zones become new resistance areas?
Third, prices are reversing at the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Fourth, the 50-day SMA had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA earlier this month. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend.
Stochastics are additionally starting to dip from an overbought condition.
Finally, TradeStation data shows that SHOP is a highly active underlier in the options market, averaging about 110,000 contracts per day in the last month. Traders looking for downside in the next few weeks may consider a strategy such as the July 60-July 55 put spread. It’s quoted for less than $0.75 and could potentially widen to $5 if SHOP falls slightly below its recent low.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
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Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities' account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
CENTUARY PLY - Moving out of the Accumulation Zone. The stock has finally moved out of the consolidation zone. Late last December, the stock met with price rejection around 850 levels and it was pushed down below the 200 DMA levels. Then it started consolidating for almost three months now. The money flow had started increasing for the past month and the relative strength also started showing signs of recovery. Today, the stock moved out of the consolidation zone with a gap-up opening and a widespread up-bar. Of course, it did meet some supply. as we can see, the close was almost in the upper mid of the bar. The stock also moved above the short-term and the long-term moving averages and we can see the convergence of the averages as well. The relative strength also is moving into the positive territory. The volume has also started increasing and we can see increase in delivery volumes as well. The momentum has been positive for almost a month now. Looks like the stock is now poised to test the rejection zone at 850 again. However, we need to see some increase in the relative strength and the momentum as well. There is also a possibility of a retest of the accumulation zone.
Follow up on the ES1! overextensionAnyone who has read my recent post will have noticed that we are tracking the increasingly over-expansive market in the CME_MINI:ES1! . If the trend is indeed our friend, then prices should remain moving upwards. Which is what I expect will happen. But in order to go into a strong uptrend, first some levels of support must be tested, or else we risk overexpanding even more. At which point, buying would become extremely dangerous. To avoid this risk, it's better to buy at discounted prices and hoping the price does indeed go ballistic. This is much preferable to buy while price is increasing, as many novice traders do due to FOMO.
With a new local maximum in place, we can safely say that a solid support has been created, yet it hasn't been tested. This in combination with the short term MA and the 2nd STD could provide additional support to the area. Making it a safe bet it won't go through. However, if this were to occur, then this would be a sign of a debilitating stock market and could potentially cause a crash. As there is a very large gap between our current supports and the previous ones. Which could lead markets to panic. I don't believe it's time yet, I think we are still missing a strong and not so long-lived final wave before we lose momentum and then crash.
Very interesting similarity between the ES1! and YM1!I was recently watching a video in the ideas section of trading view and I notice this person speculates that the price will drop lower in the Dow Jones. Interestingly enough, this also lines up quite well in my charts. It's important to notice that many differences exist between these two tickers. The fluctuations of the CBOT_MINI:YM1! and the CME_MINI:ES1! are quite different. I had to adjust the n data previous points in the short term mean return indicator to 20 as well as set the sensitivity to 2. This way the chart was not overcrowded and easier to read. As well as larger short term MA and distribution was needed.
I'll take advantage of this difference to explain what happens when the parameters in the indicator change. There are two factors to the sensitivity of the indicator. One is the number of previous days considered (parameter n). The higher this value is, the less sensitive the indicator is, therefore it's better at detecting longer term trends. This is the reason why I include 2 in the indicator. One to see the short term trend and one for the long term trend. This in addition to knowing where we are in the distribution help me for a hypothesis of what is most likely to happen next.
One key factor of my strategy when trading is to never go short unless you are absolutely sure you are correct, always look for discounts and take profits. It's better to buy at discounted prices than trying to catch both waves of the market. You already know the market did one wave, what do you think will happen next? Of course, the next wave! I personally trade with no stop loss to not materialize erroneous entries and look to buy even more as prices continue to drop and are at attractive levels. Unless there is a clear possible break of market structure like it's visible here, as the 200MA has been used in the past as strong points of support and resistance. If this structure is broken, then it's quite possible that price will trend even lower, so this trade does require a stop loss.
When I was more of an intermediate and unprofitable trader, I relied a lot on two indicators, which did give me the ability to make somewhat accurate predictions. Since tradingview has kept increasing the restrictions on free accounts, I had to choose between two of my favorite indicators. The RSI and the MACD. I chose to keep the MACD as it's visible on previous trades. Mean Returns offers the value of these two indicators into one, plus tests out a new hypothesis that I've been testing so far with great success.
The basic premise of this indicator is to chart the market cycles in terms of average returns generated in the n periods before and the current one. Additionally, it creates the supposition that the market has inertia and therefore is likely to continue doing what it's already doing (aka: the trend is your friend)
I hope the original posters of the video @AdvancedPlays gets to see this and find it to be of value.
Always remember there are no certainties in the markets, only probabilities
Tesla Restet seting up for new uptrendHere is quite visible how tesla tested its support recently. As it had been mentioned on a previous idea, this level has become a critical one for short term price action. However, seeing price swing up in this manner and then finding support in the 2 moving averages, I find it hard to believe price will drop back to test the structure. If structure is broken, then price will indeed go lower. But I don't think that will be the case. Most likely, we are about to enter an uptrend
Will BTC repeat its history?When prices begin to range away from the mean when dealing with up trending movements, power is lost in many indicators. When this happens, it usually means that price is currently in a bubble. In contrast to a ticker like the SP:SPX price usually doesn't behave in this manner. It's actually quite easy to understand why this is the case. If one was to make Monte Carlo simulations using a geometric Brownian motion, you would see some processes behave in a manner of a bubble. But if we take the aggregate of all movements and average them, or calculate a present value, the value tends to be around the center.
Well an index does quite the same but through different methods. By aggregating important tickers, they form an average based on different criteria, therefore are more susceptible to following the central limit theorem. Meanwhile, individual stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to violent movements which completely ignore technical indicators. This has led me to believe that the more a ticker is dependent on external factors the more it will follow traditional statistical and probabilistic methods. I have no proof for this claim, It's just what I believe based on experience.
When looking at central metric indicators, it's important to conciser there are two point in which these become unreliable. When price action completely ignores your distribution, such as it does here. And when the price is consolidating in the mean. When prices consolidates in the mean, it can be seen as a reset or as a very serious sign something is wrong. However, when minimums become unreliable then that is when one should really be scared, because that means something is seriously wrong. I will look for examples of this for you in the future.
When prices behave in this manner, I don't feel confident making predictions because when a ticker is more susceptible to speculation then price action behaves erratically and patterns become harder to find.
