PCDR - FiftyFifty. How to deal with this,As we see, price is sitting right at the CL.
But what does this even mean, if price is at the Center line?
It is, that price has found it's balance.
Anything can happen from here.
Chances for Long or Short are 50% in general.
Any other hints from the Chart?
Yes!
Price jumped above the CL.
Then it bounced back two times.
In between jump 1 and 2, price got hit on the head at the 1/4 line of the white Fork and fell out of the most probable path of price - it's what Pitchforks project (not predict).
But wait, there's more!
We have a Hagopian. Price was not able to reach the U-MLH. And our rules dictate that price will move in the opposite direction more than from where it came...from the Center line.
Ahaaaa...
...so could it be that price will, at least, pierce the CL?
Absolutely!
So no hurries to jump in too early.
Stay tuned and observe this stock!
Thanks for any support guys & gals.
§8-)
Centerline
Moving Averages Crossover Masterclass Part 1Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Created by Gerald Appel
It was designed in order to reveal changes in the direction, strength, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock’s price
It is a trend-following momentum indicator which shows the relationship between two moving averages of a stock’s price
As the name suggests, MACD is all about the convergence and divergence of two moving averages
Convergence occurs when the moving averages move towards each other while Divergence occurs when the moving averages move away from each other
Three main components of MACD Calculation: MACD line, Signal line, and MACD Histogram
MACD line – Calculated by subtracting 26-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) from 12-day EMA.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average which places a greater weightage on the recent data points when compared to the past data points, making it react more significantly than a simple moving average.
Signal line – 9-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal line
Histogram – Histogram is the graphical distance between MACD and the signal line, height used to assess how strong the price is moving in the given direction
There are three main parameters of MACD as a whole:
Look-back period of long term EMA to be formulated for MACD
Look-back period of short term EMA to be formulated for MACD
Look-back period of EMA to be formulated for signal line calculation
There are many ways MACD can be used to formulate trading strategy, out of which we will be discussing two in this post:
1. Centerline Crossover
Centerline: Zero lines above and below which the MACD line oscillates, diving the canvas in bullish and bearish regions
Bullish Crossover when MACD line moves above zero i.e. 12-EMA crosses up 26-EMA
Bearish Crossover when MACD line moves below zero i.e. 12-EMA crosses down 26-EMA
Signal Generation
BUY when MACD crosses up 0 while SELL when MACD crosses down 0
2. Signal line crossover
The signal line is 9-day EMA of MACD that means it trails the MACD thereby indicating momentum changes in convergence-divergence
Bullish crossover when MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line
Bearish crossover when MACD turns down and crosses below the signal line
Signal Generation
BUY when MACD crosses up the signal line and SELL when MACD crosses down the signal line
A lot more interesting things can be done using MACD, about which we'll be talking in the next Masterclass on MACD.
STAY TUNED!
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- Mudrex
Watch that wave!Since a couple of charts I've been bearish on BTSBTC, in spite of the price moving higher over the past 2 weeks or so. I'm confirming my "Messy Macro View" idea here: there's a strong downwards fibonacci channel at play here, and very little to be excited about in the crypto market. As I've said before, everybody is basically waiting for everybody else to start a strong, impulsive move up. The result is, of course, that nobody's buying much, volume is reduced to a trickle showing little confidence in the crypto market in general, and in the end, prices drop because people phase out of the market. With the little volume there is, people leaving the market can cause steep drops, and I'm convinced the recent Goldman Sachs move was only the trigger for a move down that was going to happen anyway.
But, back to the chart shown here! In fib channels the centerline is key, shown here in purple. From may to july BTSBTC tried to break through, succeeding at the start of last july. The centerline then became support, resistance, support and now, finally resistance again, with the break to the upside turning out to be weak.
So, I think we're about to put in the 5th wave down of the last leg down, as shown above. No predictions about how far we'll go, because there are so many pivot levels that are significant that predicting the right one is a waste of time.
My practical advice at the moment would be five things:
1) Short or stay out of the market. Don't go long for now.
2) Wait for the daily RSI to drop below 30 - something that hasn't happened to BTSBTC in ages. Given that our "bubble peak" in june 2017 went to 87 on the daily RSI (which is 13 above the 70 signal line) , it's only fair to assume that we can also drop significantly below the bottom 30 RSI signal line.
3) Monitor for subwave structure in the current leg down.
4) As the price reveals itself, watch where pivot levels cross with fib channel lines.
5) IF (and that's always a big if) price drops down, dollar cost average in when the subwave structure and daily RSI seem to indicate the end of the wave down.
After that, I'm confident we'll go up again and see some nice gains.
The next Pivot, here or 7k area?Hey guys, it's been a while since my last drawing chart. I've been busy with UKOIL, so I don't have much time to do BTCUSD and I don't trade BTCUSD to be honest.
As always, I'd rather not talk about LONG or SHORT, but just to share my drawing chart. Just use it as extra information if you know what I am doing here, otherwise trust your judgement.
I am also interested in learning and sharing ACTION/REACTION if y'all want to learn and share like I do.
Back to the chart, I think there is a possibility that the price will touch my middle BLUE line as it's my Centerline.
Like my facebook page for support: facebook.com
SNAP dance on the centerline.SNAP is showing a nice example, how the ForkTrading can catch the markets path.
Not only are the Forks a great way to identify the highly potential trend continuation, but also catching the "frequency" of the markets.
Watch this chart closely and observe your thoughts ;-)
Happy new week to all
P!
SNAP - Is SNAP on its way to the U-MLH?No clear trend in the daily, but we can identify the flow in the lower timeframes.
Here we can see how we can use different forks and the A/R channel to extract information.
Rules telling me, that this share wants to go north. And indeed, chances are high that price will reach the U-MLH, as our rule framework teaches.
A significant close below the centerline would negate this trade idea.
P!
ES E-Mini S&P500 - 2045 to 2040. Read why.Price fell below the centerline.
Remarkable are the couple of retest's.
Price could not manage to slip above the centerline again.
There are two other possibilities left: either price go sideways, or down.
Since price and everything moves in swings, I see the down swing bevor my eyes.
The further analysis even give us a target, the lower MLH is one.
Another one is the centerline of the yellow fork, since we know that price is
reaching the centerline over 80%.
Besides all the pro's & con's, all in all it's just a trade, nothing more.
Managing the risk and holding to the trading plan is the goal.
P!
CL - Crude on a test/retest bevor the breakdown?Here we have it picture perfect!
On the left side, you can see the big sine-wave-swing.
These sine-wave swings often get broken fist, before
a further movement in the original direction.
And so it happened.
Price was not able to move further north.
Oil organisations did all to keep price up - even manipulating in the news...
As I wrote in the previous post: The market makes the price, not a organisation and not even a talking head. We must understand that the value of everything is determined by the trust and distrust of us, the people, the consumer, the markets!
In my last posts you could (and thanks to TradingView you still can) follow my analysis and see how it evolved. It's not about my analysis - it's about the framework I use to be able to make such projections and forecasts. Everyone can do this by learning it...
Back to the chart:
So, we broke the big white centerline.
As the framework dictates, price comes back to where it broke out and test/retest the centerline again.
If price fails to jump back above the centerline, then we have a very high chance to go down to the next line, the L-MLH.
If you are interested in more information about the Fork Trading Framework and how to apply it to the markets, just drop me a private message. I keep you informed about my new course material, coaching and services.
Peace!
SNAP - Potential of two centerlines?I had right now a fellow trader asking me about which centerlines could be met, if I have two forks on the chart. The answer is: either of both can be met, even if the other one is a very big one like the one in the current Gold chart:
Why is this possible?
It is a question of the perspective, the context:
If you look for "quickies", then you probably prefer to trade the smaller ones, because the TIME it takes to reach the centerline of the smaller fork is shorter, even if both have the 80% chance to be hit.
So, think first what you can stand, what your style of trading really is and with what product you trade it. And by "product" I mean the underlying or options or futures etc.
I like to trade options very much.
But I seldom only buy options, I look for theta - time decay and collect premium.
If my assumption of a market is heavily directional, then I use options too, playing my chances with a RiskReversal (Selling options for a premium which finances me the bought options, that are usually two or more times the bought ones.)
Go slow, learn (by asking like this trader) and then you will earn...it's a process and it takes time.
P!
SNAP - Down to the centerline and the the bounce?Here is a new view about SNAP.
We made money on the last two trades (up and down) and now we must wait and be patient.
I see the centerline as potential place where this stock can bounce back - how far? Dunno...
But since the confidence is getting crunched more and more, it's also possible that we see a zoom through the centerline, with a following test/retest back to it and then a very sharp continuation to the downside...but this just the possible scenario that plays in my brain.
First we just observe and and see, if SNAP can find supporters at the centerline.
P!
CL - Crude landed - bullseye!This was the former post. Read it and learn how this did unfold.
And now I will wait for a retetst of the centerline.
In my brain there is the Weekly chart...it's L-MLH is breached! This means, that price will test/retest it on the weekly bevor falling off the cliff if it really does. If this is the case, then the gas station has to pay us...
Here's the weekly:
Trade small and often, not bold and seldom, to enhance your chances to win!
P!
SNAP - Snapchat reached the centerline.Here we have a nice example of a advanced fork setup.
If you know how the swings really, and I mean REALLY work, you know how to place the A/B/C points and therefore, what you can expect.
I don't trade this potential downside now, but I will observe until something screams in my face.
P!
XLE about to prepare for a spurt to the north? See how price reacts at the centerline/slding/AR-Lines ?
The SWAP in Nov. 16 marked the range and of course it has to come back to breath out.
Lastly the weak hands got scared out by a very hard and final drop (red bar).
Now I can imagine that time is right to collect some premium on the downside.
Even a RiskReversal my be a good trade.
P!
SNAP - 60m Works With Forks tooHere we have SNAP, respecting the U-MLH and reached the Centerline perfectly bevor bouncing up.
This 60min. bar is not over now, but we already can see how price of SNAP reacting at the centerline, the place where price is going in over 80% of time.
From here, price could zoom through the CL. or bounce back to it, just to turn and go north.
Observing...