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Is Silver About to Rewrite the Rules of the Global Financial GaIn a remarkable twist of market dynamics, silver – long overshadowed by its golden cousin – is positioning itself for what could be its most dramatic transformation in decades. Russia's unprecedented decision to add silver to its central bank reserves has sent shockwaves through the precious metals market, potentially signaling a fundamental shift in how central banks view this dual-purpose metal. This strategic move, combined with a staggering supply deficit of 663 million ounces projected through 2024, suggests we may be witnessing the early stages of a historic price realignment. The numbers tell a compelling story: a 41% price surge year-to-date, pushing above $33.89 per ounce, with analysts projecting potential moves beyond $40 before year's end. Yet it's not just the price action that's turning heads. The convergence of industrial demand from emerging technologies, particularly in renewable energy and electronics, alongside traditional investment demand, has created a unique supply-demand imbalance. This structural deficit, coupled with major central banks' expected rate cuts in 2024, could catalyze a powerful upward price trajectory. Perhaps most intriguing is the current gold-silver ratio of 81:1, sitting well above its historical average of 55:1. This disparity, viewed alongside Russia's groundbreaking policy shift, raises a provocative question: Are we witnessing the early signs of a new monetary paradigm where silver reclaims its historical role as a strategic reserve asset? For investors and market observers alike, the unfolding story of silver in 2024 may well represent one of the most compelling opportunities in the precious metals space – a narrative where industrial necessity meets monetary revolution.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by signalmastermind
BULLISH MOMENTUM! Clear confluence, Read below. NSE:CENTRALBK Date: 03/07/2023 --- Disclaimer: This is just my observation, please do not consider this idea as financial advise. It is important that each individual should due his/her own due diligence before taking a financial decision, more so in the money markets! --- The uptrend seen in the chart is reflected in the RSI. This indicates a good upward momentum. This is by using RSI as a momentum gauge rather than a "overbought and oversold" gauge. The trend has bullish breakthrough in the triangle pattern. After the recent bullish change of character, we can see that today as of me writing this idea, there is a bullish break of structure. This provides a strong chance of bullish momentum in the coming days. The price has tested the 21 and 50 day SMA's and risen past it in the past few days with stride. Price is still in the mid discount zone. Decent entry point. The above points proves a confluence of bullish momentum Take profit would be taken in reference to previous highs as this would serve as a passive resistance zone. TAKE PROFIT 1 = 31.2 TAKE PROFIT 2 = 33.4 TAKE PROFIT 3 = 34.5 Advisable not to go beyond as the area is not strongly tested. Good luck!
NSE:CENTRALBKLong
by surajnagesh
3
Central banks navigate the last stretch of the tightening cycleThis week we learnt how vital Central Bank communication is to global financial markets. The trio of central banks – The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held their respective meetings. Each of the central banks tried to convey how they will navigate monetary policy amidst a slowing economy and avoid a hard landing. China takes small steps to shore up the recovery Even the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets this week, by announcing a cut in the 7-day Open Market Operations (OMO) by 10Bps to 1.9%1 which paved the way for another cut to the one-year medium term lending facility rate by 10Bps to 2.65%2. These recent developments mark a more proactive stance by Chinese policy makers in trying to tackle the Chinese slowdown in activity since the re-opening. Clearly more is needed. Policymakers are soliciting opinions from business leaders and economists on how to revitalise the economy in a number of urgent meetings3. While the Fed and ECB are trying to tame inflation, China has the opposite problem as inflation remains low. Manufacturing remains weak, exports are slowing, and credit growth is cooling. This is why it’s no surprise that the markets are prepping for a broader package of stimulus targeted towards the ailing property sector. A hawkish skip for the Fed The recent flurry of economic reports continues to show the US economy is holding up but losing steam, supporting the Fed’s approach of changing the pace of its policy tightening. The Fed kept the fed funds rate in range of 5-5.25%, by unanimous vote, in line with market expectations after 10 straight hikes dating back to March 2022. The Fed’s dot plot showed the median rate at 5.6% versus 5.1% a month back. In the summary of economic projections, the median unemployment rate forecast was revised lower from 4.5% to 4.1% by the end of 2023 while the core inflation rate was revised higher from 3.6% to 3.9% making the case for more hikes this year. This clearly was a hawkish skip. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was careful to point out that no decision was made on a July hike, but he did say it is a live meeting, leading the market to increase the probability of a move. What surprised me the most, was that Powell said rate cuts would be a couple of years out which is at odds with the dot plot forecast of 100Bps of cuts in 2024. Senior Economist to WisdomTree Jeremy Siegel believes the Fed is done hiking and that alternative inflation metrics which incorporate real time housing inputs show inflation running at 1.4% instead of 4.1%. This is based on alternative shelter inflation calculations using Case Shiller Housing and Zillow rent annualized at 0.5% instead of the 8% that is biasing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI higher. ECB’s revised inflation forecasts remain at odds After raising the deposit rate by 25Bps to 3.5%, the ECB was a lot clearer than the Fed in signalling that rate hikes are almost certain next month on July 27. The ECB remains too optimistic on growth, reducing their projection for 2023 real GDP to only 0.9% (from 1% in its March projections). While I would agree with the ECB’s view that (1) mostly labour-intensive services will support economic growth over the next two years and (2) the current hump in wage inflation will show up via higher prices for these services, I remain sceptical amidst the global headwinds for manufacturing, and a slower pace of overall growth could keep inflation as high as the ECB now projects. While wages are likely to accelerate slightly above 5% in 2023, they should begin declining to 4% yoy by late 2024. We believe, if core inflation continues to recede in the coming months and the real economy grows at 0.4% in 2023, the ECB will stay put in September after a final move next month. As expected, the ECB confirmed that it will stop to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds under its standard Asset Purchase Programme (APP) from July onwards. It won’t offer new long term liquidity injections upon the expiry of the €477Bn of a TLTRO III liquidity measure on 28 June 2023. BOJ sits tight As expected, the BOJ kept all key policy settings unchanged, including the +/-50Bps band around the zero% Japanese Government Bond JGB yield target. Since taking the helm in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the high cost of premature tightening as the economy is finally seeing green shoots toward sustainable inflation. In contrast to the ECB, the BoJ's latest assessment and outlook for the economy and inflation were also largely unchanged from their update in the April Outlook Report. The BoJ continues to note "extremely high uncertainties" surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad." Japanese equity markets reacted positively to the BOJ’s status quo stance on monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed’s potential pivot back to a hawkish mode versus the BOJ’s dovish perseverance could pave the way for further upside for Japanese equities owing to the underlying weakness in the Yen versus the US dollar. Sources 1 Bloomberg on June 13, 2023 2 Bloomberg on June 15, 2023 3 Bloomberg on June 14, 2023
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by aneekaguptaWTE
🔥 Is The Bitcoin Halving Causing Bull Markets? New Theory!The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin. This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price? I've plotted the balance sheets of the largest central banks in white. If this line goes up, it indicates an expansion of the balance sheet (Quantitative Easing / QE), which can roughly be interpreted as printing money. It appears that Bitcoin bull- and bear-markets are highly correlated with central banks expanding their balance sheets. White line goes up, BTC goes up, white line goes down (or sideways) BTC goes down. I've marked two previous occurrences where the central banks started QE in purple. Bitcoin arguably started the bull-market from those points, and not once the halving (yellow) took place. From this chart we can conclude that the Central Banks are a decisive factor in the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets. Sure, the halving is a highly anticipated event among retail investors and manages to revive the interest into crypto, but I'd argue that QE (= a better investing climate) is the main reason why Bitcoin goes up and down in cycles. In other words, we can have a BTC bull-market during a period of QE without the halving taking place. We can't have a bull-market after the halving without QE. If you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Share your thoughts below 🙏
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by FieryTrading
8
USDJPY: BULLISH ASCENDING 🔺BIAS: BULLISH 🔺 TECHNICAL PROJECTION: BULLISH 🔺 We have a bullish bias that price will rise to 137. Once there is upside confirmation, bullish momentum is expected to carry to 141 target. AREAS OF INTEREST: H4 time frame, break of resistance at 137 H4 time frame, support at 134.225 - attempting to catch the bullish "E" wave FUNDAMENTAL PROJECTION: JPY WEAK B.O.J remains on its dovish path as the central bank has: Kept all policy settings unchanged at their June meeting & stated that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future and won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it. The next central bank meeting will be on 21 July 2022 - which may be forced to change its economic outlook to a more hawkish stance.. but only time will tell!
Long
by maraxrara
EURAUD: BULLISH EXPANDING 🔺 BIAS: BULLISH 🔺 TECHNICAL PROJECTION: BULLISH 🔺 We have a H4 breakout bullish confirmation, bullish momentum is expected to carry to 1.556 target. AREAS OF INTEREST: H4 time frame, bullish breakout confirmed- will be attempting to join in the "E wave" by break & retest method. FUNDAMENTAL PROJECTION: AUD is weak and will become weaker as it gets weighed down by lower commodity prices. The markets await the upcoming rate decision where there is a possible chance from 25 bps to 50bps on 5th July, which may bring strength to AUD... but until then we will be playing AUD weakness! EUR: As ECB President Lagarde indicated, the ECB would be looking to the CPI data as a guidance to their interest rate decision. A higher than expected CPI data which was revealed on Friday (8.6% Previous: 8.1%) could spur the ECB into a more aggressive policy adjustment which will strengthen EURO.
Long
by maraxrara
2
$NKE buy the dip?$NKE been trending down for the past few months or so possibly because of the pandemic making all the shops temporarily close down all over the world.. as of for earning NKE has been good with ok projecting guidance. also there's a lot of flow calls coming in for NKE. below is my ideal entry for day trading or scalp play. $NKE average move per day is about $3.00+ a day. AAPL: Day trade or scalp target play: 04/11/22 Buy call above 135.60 sell at 137.61 or above. Buy puts below 131.11 sell at 128.78 or below. option open interest: ideal expiration date: 5/20/22 , 4/29/22 or 09/16/22 Hello everyone, welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more. My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes onl
NYSE:NKELong
by CHRIS_B58
CENTRAL BANK SYMMETRICALPATTERNHello Welcome to this analysis about CENTRAL BANK , we are looking at daily timeframe perspectives. CENTRAL BANK in recent times heavily decreased with bearishness however it now moved into an oversold condition. CENTRAL BANK is developing here that will be a decisive factor in the upcoming times. I discovered the main formation CENTRAL BANK is developing here that will be a decisive factor in the upcoming times. As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how CENTRAL BANK has emerged with this key CENTRAL BANK SYMMETRICAL PATTERN marked in my chart with the black boundaries. CENTRAL BANK is near support region which is an important support and also psychological support-mark together with the lower-boundary of the CENTRAL BANK SYMMETRICAL PATTERN a pullback In this manner, thank you for watching my update-analysis about CENTRAL BANK and its major CENTRAL BANK SYMMETRICAL PATTERN with the determining factors we need to consider in upcoming times, support the analysis with a like and follow or comment for more market insight!
NSE:CENTRALBKLong
by shanechart
Thinnest yearly CPR in 27 yrs, most volatile year in EUR historyCentral Pivot Range which is a perfect predictor of volatility to come (the thinner CPR the more volatility to expect) forecasts 2020 as the most volatile year in EURUSD history. EURUSD yearly CPR has never been so thin in its modern trading era as in 2020. On the top of that we have got a breakdown (!) of yearly Camarilla S4, some traders compare Camarilla S4 - R4 levels to a house floor or ceiling. Once S4-R4 is broken - price exhibits heavy volatility (Camarilla rule). EURUSD is likely to drop to 0.90s if volatility continues downwards, what is most likely scenario of course. Have wide SL for all EUR pairs the entire this year. Tight stops will eat your trades quick. Pullbacks are gonna be massive. Scalpers are doomed this year as their stops will be devoured immediately.
Short
by ICFX
A new decline for Aud/UsdA new decline is expected for Aud/Usd, in fact in the last sessions the price stabilized between 78.6% and 100% of the Fibonacci retracement. Speaking about the price it was between the support at 0.675 and the resistance at 0.705. Throughout the summer it should continue to lateralize in this channel as, fundamentally, both the Australian central bank and the FED will not distort their monetary policies. At this time, however, investors and analysts are expecting a slight change from Powell. He should cut rates in the July meeting: the market has already discounted this news, causing a retracement of dollar against the other majors. For now we expect a maintenance of this level, with the dollar that should find the necessary strength to reach the main short-term supports against other currencies. Technically, on this pair the price should go back to testing the static support at 0.675. This before the monthly closing in June.
Short
by BFCMInvest
The price of nzd/usd broke again the supportThe price of nzd/usd broke again the static support identified by 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. It's placed at 0.662 and the pair close the last week below it. Technically the trend has been declining since February 2018. It's starting from the area on 0.75 and has lost over 10 cents. Then bounced back to form this last wave of correction started in November 2018. This wave is ending its strength and is returning to the previous level, leading the price to break the support mentioned above. All the main indicators and moving averages are projected downwards on short and medium term time frames. Moreover on monthly tf you can see a figure almost at the end of its conformation. Started in August 2015, this Head-shoulders is reaching its final phase with the right shoulder completed for 50%. Within a few weeks you should see a retest of the support area from which this figure started, ranging from about 0.634 to about 0.62. This scenario is strongly supported by the macroeconomic studies. Thanks to the monetary policy that the two central banks of the respective countries are adopting, this downtrend should not change. In fact, in one hand the FED has slowed down its strongly restrictive policy. This by meeting the needs of the markets to Trump's requests. Without cutting rates and about to resume it. On the other hand, the New Zealand central bank, in the meeting of this night or in the next month, it will cut rates. This cut should be from 1.75% to 1.50%. This will cause a further devaluation of the New Zealand currency. The price of nzd/usd broke again the static support, for this reason we recommend "short-term" short entry with the first TP at 0.649, according to TP at 0.642 and final target at 0.627. the SL will be set above the EMA20 weekly periods at 0.674.
Short
by BFCMInvest
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore AUD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further Euro Area exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling AUD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop. - Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (AUD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps AUD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short AU trade by increasing $ demand relative to AUD. 2. The RBA Meeting on Tuesday the 5th is likely to be dovish, as 1) Brexit risks are weighed in on again, after supportive/ dovish statements from RBA members following the Brexit decision and 2) AUD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the last meeting and the May Rate cut e.g. Retail sales 0.2% vs 0.3%, Unemployment flat at 5.7%. - However, I dont expect an RBA rate cut, as they cut last just 2 months ago in May by 25bps to 1.75% and their GDP print was firm at 3.1% v 2.8% yoy and 1.1% v 0.8% with Unemployment also stable (yet to see inflation), so I expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, with possible hints to a August rate cut - citing Brexit and looking forward to their end of July Inflation print as a gauge for further rate cuts. Nonetheless the dovish rhetoric should be strong enough to put pressure on AUD and tip the scales south supporting the AU short. 3. From a USD demand point of view, last week we saw USD lose 160pips against the AUD as Brexit Uncertainty negatively hit the Feds Rate hike cycle expectancy, flattening the curve in the front end which ruled out any hikes until Dec or 2017, fewer hikes = less USD strength. - However, since the beginning of the week where brexit risks ruled out hikes in the near term, the end of the week managed to turn rate hike expectations around as Brexit likelihood decreased/ shifted into 2017. This helped the Fed fund futures curve recover/ steepen somewhat in the front end, with the implied probability of a hike increasing from 0% to 5.9% for both September and November, whilst the probability of a hike in December also steepened significantly from 13.3% to 22.3% with the probability of a 50bps hike being priced for the first time at 1.1%. This trend of Fed Hike recovery is likely to continue as long as Brexit risks remain subdued, so we can expect USD to begin to price stronger in the coming days/ weeks. 4. Technically, AUDUSD trades 100pips away from a key handle at 0.76xx which is a double top and may provide the ideal short area. Further, higher than that at 0.78xx is the 12 month high which is also potentially a great level to get short from as a double top 5. Volatility - 1wk, 2wk and 1m (-1.52, -1.57, -1.60) AUDUSD Risk Reversals all trade with a downside bias indicating put/ downside demand is higher than upside, so the option market net expects AUDUSD to come down over the above tenors. - Out through the 5th, 6th, and 7th (post RBA) we see large notional OTM put options and open interest at 0.7365, 0.7440 & 0.7445 which supports the view that the RBA will be dovish and that AUDUSD is likely to hairpin around the 0.76xx double top level.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4