Is Silver About to Rewrite the Rules of the Global Financial GaIn a remarkable twist of market dynamics, silver – long overshadowed by its golden cousin – is positioning itself for what could be its most dramatic transformation in decades. Russia's unprecedented decision to add silver to its central bank reserves has sent shockwaves through the precious metals market, potentially signaling a fundamental shift in how central banks view this dual-purpose metal. This strategic move, combined with a staggering supply deficit of 663 million ounces projected through 2024, suggests we may be witnessing the early stages of a historic price realignment.
The numbers tell a compelling story: a 41% price surge year-to-date, pushing above $33.89 per ounce, with analysts projecting potential moves beyond $40 before year's end. Yet it's not just the price action that's turning heads. The convergence of industrial demand from emerging technologies, particularly in renewable energy and electronics, alongside traditional investment demand, has created a unique supply-demand imbalance. This structural deficit, coupled with major central banks' expected rate cuts in 2024, could catalyze a powerful upward price trajectory.
Perhaps most intriguing is the current gold-silver ratio of 81:1, sitting well above its historical average of 55:1. This disparity, viewed alongside Russia's groundbreaking policy shift, raises a provocative question: Are we witnessing the early signs of a new monetary paradigm where silver reclaims its historical role as a strategic reserve asset? For investors and market observers alike, the unfolding story of silver in 2024 may well represent one of the most compelling opportunities in the precious metals space – a narrative where industrial necessity meets monetary revolution.
Central-banks
Central banks navigate the last stretch of the tightening cycleThis week we learnt how vital Central Bank communication is to global financial markets. The trio of central banks – The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held their respective meetings. Each of the central banks tried to convey how they will navigate monetary policy amidst a slowing economy and avoid a hard landing.
China takes small steps to shore up the recovery
Even the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets this week, by announcing a cut in the 7-day Open Market Operations (OMO) by 10Bps to 1.9%1 which paved the way for another cut to the one-year medium term lending facility rate by 10Bps to 2.65%2. These recent developments mark a more proactive stance by Chinese policy makers in trying to tackle the Chinese slowdown in activity since the re-opening. Clearly more is needed. Policymakers are soliciting opinions from business leaders and economists on how to revitalise the economy in a number of urgent meetings3. While the Fed and ECB are trying to tame inflation, China has the opposite problem as inflation remains low. Manufacturing remains weak, exports are slowing, and credit growth is cooling. This is why it’s no surprise that the markets are prepping for a broader package of stimulus targeted towards the ailing property sector.
A hawkish skip for the Fed
The recent flurry of economic reports continues to show the US economy is holding up but losing steam, supporting the Fed’s approach of changing the pace of its policy tightening. The Fed kept the fed funds rate in range of 5-5.25%, by unanimous vote, in line with market expectations after 10 straight hikes dating back to March 2022.
The Fed’s dot plot showed the median rate at 5.6% versus 5.1% a month back. In the summary of economic projections, the median unemployment rate forecast was revised lower from 4.5% to 4.1% by the end of 2023 while the core inflation rate was revised higher from 3.6% to 3.9% making the case for more hikes this year. This clearly was a hawkish skip.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was careful to point out that no decision was made on a July hike, but he did say it is a live meeting, leading the market to increase the probability of a move. What surprised me the most, was that Powell said rate cuts would be a couple of years out which is at odds with the dot plot forecast of 100Bps of cuts in 2024.
Senior Economist to WisdomTree Jeremy Siegel believes the Fed is done hiking and that alternative inflation metrics which incorporate real time housing inputs show inflation running at 1.4% instead of 4.1%. This is based on alternative shelter inflation calculations using Case Shiller Housing and Zillow rent annualized at 0.5% instead of the 8% that is biasing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI higher.
ECB’s revised inflation forecasts remain at odds
After raising the deposit rate by 25Bps to 3.5%, the ECB was a lot clearer than the Fed in signalling that rate hikes are almost certain next month on July 27. The ECB remains too optimistic on growth, reducing their projection for 2023 real GDP to only 0.9% (from 1% in its March projections).
While I would agree with the ECB’s view that (1) mostly labour-intensive services will support economic growth over the next two years and (2) the current hump in wage inflation will show up via higher prices for these services, I remain sceptical amidst the global headwinds for manufacturing, and a slower pace of overall growth could keep inflation as high as the ECB now projects. While wages are likely to accelerate slightly above 5% in 2023, they should begin declining to 4% yoy by late 2024. We believe, if core inflation continues to recede in the coming months and the real economy grows at 0.4% in 2023, the ECB will stay put in September after a final move next month.
As expected, the ECB confirmed that it will stop to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds under its standard Asset Purchase Programme (APP) from July onwards. It won’t offer new long term liquidity injections upon the expiry of the €477Bn of a TLTRO III liquidity measure on 28 June 2023.
BOJ sits tight
As expected, the BOJ kept all key policy settings unchanged, including the +/-50Bps band around the zero% Japanese Government Bond JGB yield target. Since taking the helm in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the high cost of premature tightening as the economy is finally seeing green shoots toward sustainable inflation.
In contrast to the ECB, the BoJ's latest assessment and outlook for the economy and inflation were also largely unchanged from their update in the April Outlook Report. The BoJ continues to note "extremely high uncertainties" surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad." Japanese equity markets reacted positively to the BOJ’s status quo stance on monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed’s potential pivot back to a hawkish mode versus the BOJ’s dovish perseverance could pave the way for further upside for Japanese equities owing to the underlying weakness in the Yen versus the US dollar.
Sources
1 Bloomberg on June 13, 2023
2 Bloomberg on June 15, 2023
3 Bloomberg on June 14, 2023
🔥 Is The Bitcoin Halving Causing Bull Markets? New Theory!The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin.
This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price?
I've plotted the balance sheets of the largest central banks in white. If this line goes up, it indicates an expansion of the balance sheet (Quantitative Easing / QE), which can roughly be interpreted as printing money. It appears that Bitcoin bull- and bear-markets are highly correlated with central banks expanding their balance sheets. White line goes up, BTC goes up, white line goes down (or sideways) BTC goes down.
I've marked two previous occurrences where the central banks started QE in purple. Bitcoin arguably started the bull-market from those points, and not once the halving (yellow) took place.
From this chart we can conclude that the Central Banks are a decisive factor in the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets. Sure, the halving is a highly anticipated event among retail investors and manages to revive the interest into crypto, but I'd argue that QE (= a better investing climate) is the main reason why Bitcoin goes up and down in cycles.
In other words, we can have a BTC bull-market during a period of QE without the halving taking place. We can't have a bull-market after the halving without QE.
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Macro Bubble Tracker v2.1v2.1 - Update broken chart due too trading view changes.
The global loosening cycle is coming starting with china and soon the Fed in the USA will drop the mirage of tightening conditions. (IMO)
Go long in select area with my personal favorite towards commodity exposed value stocks.
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons:
1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph).
- With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore AUD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further Euro Area exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling AUD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop.
- Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (AUD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps AUD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short AU trade by increasing $ demand relative to AUD.
2. The RBA Meeting on Tuesday the 5th is likely to be dovish, as 1) Brexit risks are weighed in on again, after supportive/ dovish statements from RBA members following the Brexit decision and 2) AUD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the last meeting and the May Rate cut e.g. Retail sales 0.2% vs 0.3%, Unemployment flat at 5.7%.
- However, I dont expect an RBA rate cut, as they cut last just 2 months ago in May by 25bps to 1.75% and their GDP print was firm at 3.1% v 2.8% yoy and 1.1% v 0.8% with Unemployment also stable (yet to see inflation), so I expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, with possible hints to a August rate cut - citing Brexit and looking forward to their end of July Inflation print as a gauge for further rate cuts. Nonetheless the dovish rhetoric should be strong enough to put pressure on AUD and tip the scales south supporting the AU short.
3. From a USD demand point of view, last week we saw USD lose 160pips against the AUD as Brexit Uncertainty negatively hit the Feds Rate hike cycle expectancy, flattening the curve in the front end which ruled out any hikes until Dec or 2017, fewer hikes = less USD strength.
- However, since the beginning of the week where brexit risks ruled out hikes in the near term, the end of the week managed to turn rate hike expectations around as Brexit likelihood decreased/ shifted into 2017. This helped the Fed fund futures curve recover/ steepen somewhat in the front end, with the implied probability of a hike increasing from 0% to 5.9% for both September and November, whilst the probability of a hike in December also steepened significantly from 13.3% to 22.3% with the probability of a 50bps hike being priced for the first time at 1.1%. This trend of Fed Hike recovery is likely to continue as long as Brexit risks remain subdued, so we can expect USD to begin to price stronger in the coming days/ weeks.
4. Technically, AUDUSD trades 100pips away from a key handle at 0.76xx which is a double top and may provide the ideal short area. Further, higher than that at 0.78xx is the 12 month high which is also potentially a great level to get short from as a double top
5. Volatility - 1wk, 2wk and 1m (-1.52, -1.57, -1.60) AUDUSD Risk Reversals all trade with a downside bias indicating put/ downside demand is higher than upside, so the option market net expects AUDUSD to come down over the above tenors.
- Out through the 5th, 6th, and 7th (post RBA) we see large notional OTM put options and open interest at 0.7365, 0.7440 & 0.7445 which supports the view that the RBA will be dovish and that AUDUSD is likely to hairpin around the 0.76xx double top level.
Something's stirring in the gold marketA break above 1180 could signal the end of the secular bear market within the larger bull market of gold, as for the first time gold made a higher high price since it fell from a peak of 1900.
Current price action is considerately overbought, but every dip was bought up given the fear and global macro.
Next few days we might potentially see Dollar correcting by at least 3% and this will be the catalyst of a 'higher-high' in Gold vs USD ratio.
Yes I'm aware, analysis such as Harry Dent is calling for $700 gold. I'm unconvinced. Deflation is the trend in the global economy and gold is an inflation hedge. So why would gold go up when the global economy is deflating?
Link: economyandmarkets.com
Simple, central banks all around the world are stuck.
In the midst of a market crash and interest rate were still at 0%, not even QE is having any significant impact in countries like Japan and Europe. Markets are in untested water! They have no other gunpowder to stimulate the economy right now.
Historically gold rallies in times of a rising interest rate since it is an inflationary hedge, and interest rate rises because the economy is heating up.
Market expectations are changing. From a strong dollar as a result of Janet Yellen not wanting to lose her confidence by rising rates, to macro fears about the global economy. People will be expecting rates to be dropped, or even negative in the following months.
What if the interest rate were to be negative if Central Banks run out of options?
What if more QE was done?
Why would anyone still want to keep their money in insolvent banks and be charged at a monthly fee?
Gold isn't just a commodity, it is also a form of money beyond the control of any entity like Bitcoin. The correlation impact of the economy to gold will be pretty insignificant, considering the bigger picture as a hedge against a risk.
Some other factors includes only 73,000 ounce of gold remaining in the vaults of COMEX as of 2nd Feb 2016. 542 ounce of paper gold owner backed by just 1 ounce of physical gold.
What if these people starts asking for their gold back with the paper contracts they bought? You can expect a default ahead in the exchange just like the infamous bitcoin exchange, MtGox.
It is simply an accident waiting to happen!
Mike Maloney: www.youtube.com