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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained closely aligned with the completed Outer Coin Dip at 96000. This development suggests a potential pullback to retest the Mean Support level at 91800, with the possibility of further decline down to the Outer Coin Dip marked at 89000 before a possible resurgence in the bull market. On the other hand, if the anticipated pullback does not occur, the cryptocurrency may experience upward momentum, retesting the Mean Resistance level at 101300. This could lead to an extension toward challenging the completed Outer Coin Rally at 108000 through Key Resistance at 106000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: On Monday, during the current week’s trading session, Bitcoin reached the Mean Support level of 91800 and consistently hit the targeted Outer Coin Dip at 96000. This development indicates a likely pullback to retest the Mean Support level of 91800, with the possibility of further decline down to the Outer Coin Dip located at 89000 before a potential resurgence in the bull market. Conversely, the anticipated pullback does not materialize. In that case, the cryptocurrency may experience upward momentum, retesting the Key Resistance level at 106000 and potentially extending to challenge the completed Outer Coin Rally at 108000 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 31, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week’s trading session, Bitcoin reached its targeted Mean Support levels, specifically at 101300 and 98000. This development indicates a probable pullback to retest the Mean Support level of 98000, with the potential for further extension to the Outer Coin Dip positioned at 96000 before a possible resurgence in the bull market occurs. Conversely, should this anticipated pullback not materialize, the currency may experience upward movement, retesting the completed Inner Coin Rally at 108000 and potentially expanding to 110000 and 114500, ultimately challenging the outermost Outer Coin Rally at 122000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has successfully achieved and completed a significant Inner Coin Rally at the 108000 level. This development indicates a probable pullback to the Mean Support level of 101300, with the potential for further extension to the Mean Support level of 98000 before a resurgence in the bull market may occur. Conversely, should this pullback not transpire, the currency may experience upward movement, retesting the completed Inner Coin Rally at 108000 and challenging the next Outer Coin Rally at 110000 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has reached our significant Key Resistance level of 106000 during the current week's trading session. This development signals a retest of the completed Outer Coin Dip of the 108000 cryptocurrency before the expansion of the continued upward movement. Nevertheless, an interim decline may likely occur, leading down to the Mean Support level of 100000, with a potential further extension to the Mean Support level of 95000 before any resurgence in the bull market occurrence.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has surpassed our crucial Mean Resistance of 99500 in this week's trading session by plunging sharply back to a critical Mean Support of 91800. This decline suggests that a significant interim pullback may be underway, potentially bringing the cryptocurrency to the Outer Coin Dip 83400 before any resurgence in the bull market occurs. However, an interim strong upside move to Mean Res 97300 might be in the works.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: As specified in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis for December 27, an extraordinary rebound bull movement occurred from the Mean Support of 91800. Current analysis suggests a high likelihood that the cryptocurrency will continue to advance, potentially testing the Mean Resistance level of 99500 and aiming for a retest of the completed Inner Coin Rally marked at 108000. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize the possibility of a pullback to retest the Mean Support level of 91800 again before any resurgence in the bull market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin exhibited fluctuations within the newly defined Mean Resistance of 99500 and Mean Support of 91800. The analysis suggests a high probability that the cryptocurrency will experience a decline to the Inner Coin Dip 88500 prior to initiating a significant rebound. This rebound is expected to facilitate the re-establishment of its bullish trend. It is essential to consider that a rebound bull movement may indeed occur from the Mean Support 91800.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's repeated pullback in this week's trading session by upholding firmly at the Mean Sup 96000 price level within the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 103600 is now noted. Recent analyses indicate that the cryptocurrency will likely retest the completed Inner Coin Rally 103600 by navigating the weak Mean Resistance 102300. This movement is anticipated to revitalize its upward trajectory toward the projected Outer #1 Coin Rally 110000 and beyond. Furthermore, a potential decline to the Mean Support 97000 would prepare the market for the subsequent phase of a bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
What Is Quantitative Tightening and How Does It Work?What Is Quantitative Tightening and How Does It Work in Financial Markets? Quantitative tightening (QT) is a critical tool central banks use to control inflation by reducing the money supply. In this article, we’ll break down how QT works, its impact on financial markets, and how it influences the broader economy. Read on to learn more about the effects of QT and how it shapes markets. What Is Quantitative Tightening? Quantitative tightening (QT) is a type of tightening monetary policy that central banks use to reduce the amount of money circulating in the economy. When central banks like the USA’s Federal Reserve or European Central Bank engage in QT, they aim to tighten liquidity by reducing their balance sheets, typically by allowing bonds or other financial assets to mature without reinvestment or selling them outright. QT is a practice often used alongside hiking central bank interest rates, though not always. The main goal of QT is to manage inflation by increasing borrowing costs and reducing demand for goods and services. By letting bonds mature or selling them, central banks effectively pull money out of circulation. This leads to fewer funds available for lending, which raises interest rates. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, encouraging businesses and consumers to cut back on spending, which can help cool down inflation. An example of this mechanism in action is the Fed’s QT program that began in 2022 to tackle high inflation by reducing the size of its balance sheet after years of quantitative easing. QT is essentially the opposite of quantitative easing (QE), which is aimed at stimulating economic growth. What Is Quantitative Easing? QT and QE are both used to correct the economy’s course. However, while QT refers to the tightening of monetary policy, QE loosens it. During QE, central banks buy large quantities of government bonds and other assets to inject liquidity into the economy. This increases the money supply, lowers interest rates, and is intended to stimulate economic activity, particularly during downturns or recessions. QE was used extensively following the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic as a way to support economic recovery.​ How Does Quantitative Tightening Work? Quantitative tightening works by pulling liquidity out of the financial system, reducing the amount of money available for borrowing and investment. Central banks use a couple of specific methods to achieve this, which have a ripple effect on markets and the broader economy. 1. Reducing Asset Holdings One of the most common ways central banks implement QT is by allowing bonds and other financial assets on their balance sheets to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. For example, the Federal Reserve might hold trillions in government bonds. When those bonds mature, instead of using the proceeds to buy new bonds, the Fed simply lets the money flow out of circulation. This reduces the central bank’s balance sheet and shrinks the money supply, contributing to higher borrowing costs. 2. Selling Bonds Another method central banks use is the outright sale of government bonds or other securities. By selling assets, central banks increase the supply of bonds in the market. This can push bond prices down and drive yields higher, which makes borrowing more expensive for companies, governments, and individuals alike. Rising bond yields often lead to higher interest rates across the board, from mortgages to business loans—when there’s less money available for lending, banks raise the rates they charge for loans. Effects of Quantitative Tightening on the Broader Economy Quantitative tightening has significant ripple effects across the broader economy. As central banks reduce liquidity, it impacts everything from borrowing costs to consumer spending and business investment. 1. Higher Borrowing Costs One of the most immediate effects of QT is the rise in interest rates. As central banks shrink their balance sheets, bond prices fall, pushing yields higher. This, in turn, raises the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers. There may also be interest rate hikes alongside QT, further tightening lending conditions. Mortgages, personal loans, and corporate debt all become more expensive, discouraging borrowing. For businesses, higher financing costs can limit expansion plans, reducing investment in growth or innovation. Households, meanwhile, face elevated mortgage rates, leading to reduced demand in housing markets and potentially lower home prices​. 2. Reduced Consumer Spending As the cost of borrowing rises, consumers have less disposable income. Higher interest rates on loans and credit cards mean households spend more on servicing debt and less on goods and services. This can slow down retail sales and reduce overall consumer demand, which is a critical driver of economic growth. Lower consumer spending typically affects sectors like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, which depend on a high volume of transactions​. 3. Slower Business Growth QT also impacts businesses by making it more expensive to access credit. Companies that rely on borrowing to finance operations, new projects, or expansions find it harder to justify taking on debt. With higher interest payments eating into profits, many businesses may delay or scale back investment plans. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that depend on bank loans for cash flow are often the hardest hit​. 4. Inflation Control While QT can slow economic activity, its primary goal is to rein in inflation. By reducing the money supply and making credit more expensive, it cools down demand. Lower consumer and business spending can reduce price pressures, helping to stabilise inflation. This was a key objective when the Federal Reserve resumed QT in 2022 to counter post-pandemic inflation​. 5. Potential Economic Slowdown However, if QT is too aggressive, it risks triggering an economic slowdown or even a recession. Tightening financial conditions leads to reduced economic growth, as seen in 2018 when markets reacted negatively to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reductions​. How Does Quantitative Tightening Affect Financial Markets? Quantitative tightening can have significant effects across different financial markets. By reducing liquidity, it influences the behaviour of key assets, from bonds to equities, and can reshape market conditions in profound ways. 1. Bond Market QT often leads to higher bond yields. When central banks like the Federal Reserve reduce their bond holdings or stop reinvesting in new ones, the supply of bonds in the market increases. As bond prices drop, yields rise to attract new buyers. This rise in yields means governments and corporations face higher borrowing costs. For instance, during the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening efforts in 2018, US Treasury yields rose significantly as more bonds became available in the market​. 2. Stock Market Equity markets often react negatively to QT. As liquidity tightens, the cost of borrowing rises for businesses, which can squeeze corporate profits and reduce their ability to invest or expand. Investors also tend to move away from riskier assets like stocks when bonds offer higher yields, as bonds become more attractive for their safety and improved returns. In 2018, US stocks experienced heightened volatility when the Fed’s quantitative tightening efforts combined with rate hikes led to market corrections​. 3. Foreign Exchange Market QT can also impact currency values. As central banks tighten monetary conditions and raise interest rates, their currencies often strengthen relative to others. This is because higher yields and interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the currency. For example, when the Fed began QT in 2022, the US dollar strengthened as investors sought better returns on US assets like Treasury bonds​. See how the US dollar strengthening occurred for yourself in FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. 4. Credit Market QT reduces the availability of credit as banks and financial institutions face higher borrowing costs themselves. As liquidity is drained from the system, lenders tighten their credit conditions, making loans more expensive and harder to get. This can slow economic growth as businesses and consumers find it more costly to finance investments or purchases. In effect, QT creates a tighter financial environment by reducing liquidity, pushing up borrowing costs, and shifting investor behaviour across various markets. Each asset class feels the impact in different ways, but the overall effect is a more cautious, less liquid financial system. The Bottom Line Quantitative tightening is a powerful tool central banks use to manage inflation by reducing liquidity and increasing interest rates. While it helps control rising prices, QT can impact borrowing costs, investment, and market stability. Understanding how these mechanisms work is crucial for informed trading. Ready to take advantage of different market conditions? Open an FXOpen account today and start navigating more than 700 financial markets with low-cost, high-speed trading conditions, and four advanced trading platforms. FAQ What Is Quantitative Tightening? The quantitative tightening definition refers to a monetary policy used by central banks to reduce liquidity in the economy. This involves decreasing the central bank’s balance sheet by selling bonds or allowing them to mature without reinvestment. QT is typically aimed at curbing inflation by raising borrowing costs and slowing economic activity​. How Does Quantitative Tightening Work? QT works by reducing the supply of money in the financial system. Central banks achieve this by selling government bonds or letting them mature. As the bonds leave the market, interest rates rise, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers​. How Does Quantitative Tightening Affect the Stock Market? QT can negatively impact stock markets. As interest rates rise and liquidity tightens, borrowing costs for companies increase, which can hurt corporate profits. Investors may shift towards so-called safer assets like bonds, reducing demand for stocks and contributing to market volatility​. What Is the Difference Between QT and QE? Quantitative easing (QE) increases the money supply by buying bonds, while quantitative tightening (QT) reduces liquidity by selling bonds or letting them mature. The main difference between quantitative easing vs tightening is that QE stimulates economic growth, while QT aims to control inflation​. What Does It Mean When the Fed Is Tightening? When the Federal Reserve tightens, it implements policies to reduce money supply and raise interest rates. This helps control inflation by making borrowing more expensive and slowing economic activity​. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXYEducation
by FXOpen
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin displayed substantial volatility during this week’s trading sessions, reaching our Mean Support level of 91800 and completing our Inner Coin Rally of 103600. Currently, the threshold for Bitcoin is established at Mean Support 96000, with the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 103600 now noted. Recent analyses indicate that the cryptocurrency will likely surpass the completed Inner Coin Rally 103600, which may rekindle its upward trajectory towards the anticipated Outer #1 Coin Rally 110000 and beyond. The possible pullback to Mean Support 96000 will effectively position the market for the next phase of a bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has significantly declined below our Mean Support level of 94400. Nevertheless, the momentum of the bull market has been a pivotal factor, allowing Bitcoin to rebound robustly and heading to retest the established Outer Coin Rally target 99500. Current analysis indicates that the cryptocurrency is poised to surpass the 99500 threshold, consequently reigniting its upward trajectory towards the forthcoming Outer Coin Rally target at 110000. The pullback to Mean Support 95600 and possibly to 91800 is strategically positioning the market for the next phase of the bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The price of Bitcoin, which remained at or below the completed Outer Coin Rally of 92000 during the preceding week, has successfully broken through this level this week, thus completing our Outer Coin Rally of 99500. The current analysis indicates that the cryptocurrency coin will likely experience a retracement to the Mean Support level of 94400 before embarking on its subsequent bullish trajectory, targeting our forthcoming Outer Coin Rally at 110000. This development signifies the conceivable continuation of a sustained bull market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: According to my analysis of Bitcoin, as I have previously forecasted for Aeon, Bitcoin achieved the target of $92,000 in the past week. Although it has since retraced to the Mean Support level of $86,500, Bitcoin is currently at the top, regaining momentum, and is projected to hit the Outer Coin Rally of $99,500 and a subsequent target of $110,000. Currently, wwe are hovering near the $100,000 threshold, which indicates the commencement of a significant bull market. It is essential to acknowledge that this journey has been lengthy and demanding, and further volatility is anticipated. Nevertheless, patience will likely yield substantial rewards for those who have remained committed thus far. Recognizing that reaching these targets in all probability will trigger selling pressure is crucial.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: According to the analysis of the Bitcoin daily chart for November 1, the "Interim Rebound" in Bitcoin has effectively concluded its second stage. This stage occupies the mid-zone of the rally's rebound extension, with the primary target being the Inner Coin Rally mark at 78,500. This movement corresponds with the Outer Coin Rally 81000 and the Main Outer Coin Rally 92000, as projected by TSS in their long-term bullish forecast. However, a potential pullback is anticipated to fulfil the Reignited and Primary rebound criteria.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: According to the analysis of the Bitcoin Daily Chart for October 25, the "Interim Rebound" in Bitcoin has successfully concluded the Main Inner Coin Rally at 73300. It has subsequently retraced to the support level of 69400. This level represents the inverse of the previously completed Inner Coin Rally at 69400. We anticipate initiating a primary rebound, which is expected to support a recovery that will retest the Key Resistance at 73200. This movement will align with the completion of the Main Inner Coin Rally at 73300 and may lead to further progression into the next phase of the bullish trend, designated as the Next Inner Coin Rally at 78500 and beyond. Conversely, we project a potential additional pullback to satisfy the criteria of the newly established Inner Coin Dip at 66200.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: As stated in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Oct 18, the Bitcoin ''Interim Rebound'' completed our Inner Coin Rally of 69300 and retreated to the Mean Support level of 66800 and interim squeeze extension of the Mean Support of 65300 in this week's trading session. Currently, we anticipate the onset of a primary rebound, which is expected to facilitate recovery and further advancement into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter