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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin rebounded from our Mean Support level of 104900 and, with significant momentum, subsequently completing the Mean Resistance level of 110300. Currently, the cryptocurrency is poised for a continuation of its downward trajectory, with a target set at the Mean Support level of 105500. This downward trend may necessitate heightened resilience to address the Key Resistance point at 111700 and the emerging historical price action of the Outer Coin Rally at 114500 and beyond. Nonetheless, it remains essential to acknowledge the possibility that current prices may experience an uptick from this juncture, bolstering the rally mentioned above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
NZDCAD: High-Conviction Long - Fundamental Strength & TechnicalThis analysis identifies an extremely high-conviction long opportunity in the NZDCAD currency pair 📈🇨🇦🇳🇿. Our conviction is primarily driven by a significant divergence in monetary policy outlooks and economic fundamentals between New Zealand and Canada. New Zealand's economic resilience, underpinned by robust dairy prices and a less dovish central bank stance, contrasts sharply with Canada's decelerating growth, rising unemployment, and a central bank poised for further rate cuts amidst trade policy uncertainties. Technically, NZDCAD appears poised for an upward move from key support levels, supported by bullish momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart. This is a medium-term trade expected to play out over days to weeks. 🗓️ I. Fundamental Rationale: Diverging Economic Trajectories 📊🌍 The core of this trade lies in the starkly different economic paths New Zealand and Canada are currently on, creating a compelling fundamental case for NZD appreciation against CAD: Monetary Policy Divergence: New Zealand (NZD): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25% in June 2025. Analysts anticipate a hold at the upcoming July 9 meeting, balancing growth concerns with an "uncomfortably high near-term inflation outlook". This signals a less aggressive easing path. 🏦🇳🇿 Canada (CAD): In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate steady at 2.75% in June 2025, after nine consecutive 0.25% cuts since June 2024. Market expectations for the upcoming July 30, 2025 meeting indicate a 33% chance of a further 25 basis point cut, with economists anticipating gradual cuts to 2.25% by mid-2025. This clear easing bias is driven by consistently below-target inflation (1.73% in May 2025). 📉🇨🇦 Impact: This creates a clear and widening interest rate differential fundamentally favoring the NZD. 💰 Inflation Outlook: New Zealand: Annual inflation accelerated to 2.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations and marking the highest rate since June 2024. This reinforces the RBNZ's cautious stance. ⬆️ Canada: Canada's CPI registered 1.73% in May 2025, notably below the BoC's 2.0% target, providing ample justification for further monetary easing. ⬇️ Economic Performance & Labor Market: New Zealand: GDP is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2025. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in March 2025, with average hourly earnings increasing by 4.5% annually. 💼✨ Canada: Real GDP contracted by 0.1% in April 2025, with a flash estimate pointing to another 0.1% decline in May, implying an annualized loss of 0.3% in Q2 2025. The unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in May 2025, its highest since September 2016 (excluding pandemic years). 📉🏭 Impact: New Zealand demonstrates greater economic resilience and a more stable labor market. 💪 Commodity & Trade Dynamics: New Zealand: Benefits significantly from surging dairy prices, its top export commodity, which saw a substantial 10% increase in Q1 2025, with Fonterra forecasting record milk prices and production volumes. This contributed to a robust monthly trade surplus of $1.2 billion in May 2025. 🥛🧀💰 Canada: While the CAD maintains a strong positive correlation with oil prices, energy exports decreased by 5.6% in May, with crude oil exports falling 4.0%. Furthermore, Canadian exports to the US have declined for four consecutive months due to ongoing US tariffs. 🛢️📉 Impact: Strong commodity tailwinds and a healthy trade surplus for NZD, versus tariff-induced headwinds and declining energy exports for CAD. 🌬️ Yield Differential: The New Zealand 10-year government bond yield (4.57% as of June 30, 2025) is notably higher than Canada's (3.38% as of July 3, 2025). This provides a positive carry for holding NZD over CAD. 📊 II. Technical Rationale: Chart Insights (4-Hour Timeframe) 📈🔍 The technical picture on the 4-hour chart supports a bullish reversal from current levels, complementing the fundamental outlook: Current Price Action & Long-Term Trend: NZDCAD is currently approximately 0.8277 (as of July 1, 2025). While short-term analyses may show a "sharp bearish trend," the pair is described as "trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase" as it approaches a key support area. The 1-month change for NZDCAD is +0.13%, and year-to-date is +2.45%, indicating a longer-term bullish bias despite recent fluctuations. This corrective dip presents a favorable entry point. 📉➡️📈 Key Support & Resistance Levels: Entry Point (0.8270) is strategically chosen near the immediate support cluster, specifically around the Pivot Point 1st Support of 0.8276 and an identified buying opportunity zone around 0.82700. ✅ Take Profit (TP) of 0.8350 is positioned just below the Pivot Point 3rd Level Resistance of 0.8356. 🎯 Stop Loss (SL) of 0.8220) is carefully placed below the key support levels of 0.8240 (Pivot Point 3rd Support) and 0.8236 (Pivot Point 3rd Support). A sustained break below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis. 🛑 Momentum Indicators: RSI (14): The 14-day RSI for NZDCAD is around 41.78 to 54.33, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, with room for upward movement. 📊 MACD (12, 26, 9): A "bullish divergence" has been identified on the hourly timeframe, often signaling a return of buying interest. The MACD line is also observed to be slightly above its signal line, hinting at a potential bullish crossover. ⬆️ Moving Averages: The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned slightly above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This configuration suggests a potential bullish crossover of longer-term moving averages, generally considered a positive long-term signal. 📈 III. Trade Setup: 📋✨ Currency Pair: NZDCAD 🇳🇿🇨🇦 Direction: Long (Buy) ⬆️ Entry Point: 0.8270 Take Profit (TP): 0.8350 Stop Loss (SL): 0.8220 Calculated Risk (in pips): 50 pips Calculated Reward (in pips): 80 pips Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1.6:1 (A favorable ratio for a high-probability setup!) ✅ Key Considerations: Always adhere to strict risk management principles, risking no more than 1-2% of your total trading capital on this single trade. Be mindful of potential volatility around upcoming high-impact economic events in July, particularly the RBNZ and Bank of Canada interest rate decisions, and inflation data. 🗓️🔔
Long
by MaxellAguiran
Sintra Signals: Central Banks Stay Cautious The ECB Forum in Sintra brought together the heads of the world’s most influential central banks—Lagarde (ECB), Powell (Fed), Bailey (BOE), Ueda (BOJ), and Rhee (BOK). Across the board, central banks are remaining cautious and data-driven, with no firm commitments on timing for rate changes. Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. economy is strong, with inflation manageable despite expected summer upticks. He noted tariffs have delayed potential rate cuts and confirmed the Fed is proceeding meeting by meeting. BOE’s Bailey highlighted signs of softening in the UK economy and said policy remains restrictive but will ease over time. He sees the path of rates continuing downward. BOJ’s Ueda noted headline inflation is above 2%. Any hikes will depend on underlying core inflation which remains below target.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week’s trading session, Bitcoin has demonstrated an upward trajectory and is positioned to achieve the specified targets of Mean Resistance 110300 and Key Resistance 111700. This progression may ultimately culminate in the realization of the Outer Coin Rally 114500 and beyond. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize the possibility of a subsequent decline from the current price to the Mean Support level of 104900 before a definitive upward rebound.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent trading session, Bitcoin exhibited an upward trend; however, it subsequently experienced a significant decline from the established Mean Resistance level at 110300. On Friday, Bitcoin exhibited notable price action, characterized by a pump-and-dump scenario. At this juncture, Bitcoin is retracing downwards as it seeks to approach the Mean Support level at 101500 and the ultimate Inner Coin Dip at 96500. It is essential to acknowledge the potential for an upward rally from the Mean Support levels of $101500 and/or the Inner Coin Dip at $96500. Such a rally could culminate in a retest of the Mean Resistance level at $107000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 13, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the past week, Bitcoin has exhibited considerable volatility. After reaching a peak at the first Mean Resistance level of 109500, the cryptocurrency experienced a significant decline. Nevertheless, on Friday, Bitcoin demonstrated a notable recovery, ascending to a newly established resistance now designated as the new Mean Resistance level marked at 110300. At this juncture, Bitcoin is retracing downward as it retests the initial Mean Support level of 104000 while aiming to target the Mean Support at 101500 and the ultimate Inner Coin Dip at 96500. It is essential to recognize the potential for an upward rally from the Mean Support levels of $ 104,000 and/or $ 101,500, which could culminate in a retest of the Mean Resistance level of $ 110,300.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 6, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has experienced a notable downturn throughout the week; however, on Friday, it made a substantial upward movement, effectively recovering all previous losses. It is currently positioned to establish a temporary pause at the Mean Resistance level of $106,000, which may facilitate the development of upward momentum from this point. This situation may pose challenges to achieving the Inner Coin Rally target of $ 114,500, which is contingent upon the Mean Resistance at $ 109,500 and Key Resistance at $ 111,700. It is essential to acknowledge the possibility of a downward pullback from the Mean Resistance level of $106,000, which could result in a decline toward the Mean Support level of $101500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has undergone a significant decline during the current week's trading session and is presently situated at the Mean Support level of $103,000. This downward trajectory has the potential to establish a temporary pause, which may facilitate the emergence of upward momentum from this level, and it could pose a challenge to the Key Resistance level at 109500. A successful breach of this resistance may lead to the completion of the Inner Coin Rally target at $114500. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the possibility of renewed downward momentum from the current level, as this could result in a decline toward the Mean Support of 99000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the course of this week's trading session, Bitcoin demonstrated significant upward movement, surpassing both Mean Resistance at 105000 and Key Resistance at 106100. This progression also facilitated the surpassing completed Inner Coin Rally at 108,000, and the highly anticipated Outer Coin Rally marked at 110000. As a result, the cryptocurrency experienced a substantial decline, currently aiming toward Mean Support at 105600, with a potential further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 101500. It is essential to acknowledge the possibility of an upward momentum emerging from the current level, which may enable a challenge to Key Resistance at 111700. Success in this regard could result in reaching the Inner Coin Rally at $114500 and, subsequently, the Outer Coin Rally at 122000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained tightly bound within our Mean Resistance level of 104000 and is positioned to retest the lower target identified as Mean Support at 99300. There exists a possibility of a further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, which may lead to a challenge of the Key Resistance at 106100. This could culminate in a retest of the previously established Inner Coin Rally at $108,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin leapfrogged our Interim Coin Rally 100000 via Key Res 97500 in this week's trading session and is clearly aiming to retest the next target of completed Inner Coin Rally 108000. Nevertheless, current price movements indicate a potential retracement from Mean Resistance 104000 toward the Mean Support level at 99300, with a further possible decline likely toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. However, it is imperative to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, as this could facilitate a trajectory toward the Key Res 106100 and the next Interim Coin Rally at $108,000 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Taiwan Dollar Weakens Past 30 per USD Amid Trade Rumors and CentThe Taiwanese dollar weakened past 30 per USD on Tuesday, reversing a two-day rally and retreating from its strongest level in nearly three years. 📉 Recent gains in Asian currencies like the TWD and MYR were fueled by speculation over regional support for U.S. trade talks. However, Taiwan’s central bank denied any such coordination, stating the U.S. made no formal request. President Lai Ching-te also warned against spreading misinformation. 🔧 As a key player in global chip production, Taiwan remains highly exposed to shifts in trade dynamics and geopolitical risks.
IG:TAIWAN
by ChartMage
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin prices have significantly exceeded our previously completed Interim Rally 95000, thereby positioning the cryptocurrency to aim for the forthcoming Interim Coin Rally marked at 100000. Nevertheless, current price movements indicate a potential retracement toward the Mean Support level at 94000, with a further possible decline likely toward an additional Mean Support target at 91800. It is imperative to recognize the potential for upward momentum to develop from a retest of either support level, as this could facilitate a trajectory toward the next Interim Coin Rally at $100,000 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 25, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin experienced a significant rally in this week's trading session, breaking through all identified Mean Resistance levels: 86400, 90600, and 94500. This breakout led to the completion of the Interim Coin Rally at 88400. As a result, the newest identified Interim Coin Rally at 95000 has also been completed, indicating a possible pullback to the Mean Support at 92000 and a further decline potential toward an additional Mean Support target at 88500. However, it's important to recognize the chance of upward momentum emerging from a retest of the completed Interim Coin Rally at 95000, which could advance toward the next Interim Coin Rally at 100000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 18, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the price movements observed throughout the week, Bitcoin has remained close to the previous Mean Support level of 85200 and appears poised to initiate an upward breakout, targeting the newly developed Mean Resistance level of 86400. This breakout may facilitate a retest of the completed Interim Coin rally at 88400, with additional expansions of targets also being a possibility. It is critical to acknowledge that potential for downward momentum may arise from a rechallenge of either the Interim Coin Rally at 88400 or the Mean Resistance at 86400.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this eventful trading week, Bitcoin surpassed our key and completed Outer Coin Dip 78700 and another Outer Coin Dip 74500 target. As a result, we have robust rally development, and current development suggests a continuing rally as it aims to target a Mean Resistance level of 85200 and to retest the completed Interim Coin Rally 88400. There is also potential for additional target expansions. It is essential to note that a downward momentum may arise from the rechallenge of the Interim Coin Rally 88400 and/or the Mean Resistance at 75200.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the course of this week's trading activities, we noted a successful retest of the Interim Coin Rally at 88400, with particular emphasis on the Mean Support at 82500. This development indicates the potential for an extension in a trajectory toward the previously established Outer Coin Rally at 78700. An upward momentum may originate from the Mean Support at 82500 and/or the Key Support at 79000/completed Outer Coin Dip at 78700.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin underwent several significant peaks as it completed the Interim Coin Rally 88400. Subsequently, it experienced a decline, moving towards the Mean Support 82500, with the possibility of extending its trajectory to retest the previously completed Outer Coin Rally 78700. An upward momentum may be initiated from the Mean Support of 82500 or the Key Support of 79000/completed Outer Coin Dip of 78700.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's trading session demonstrated considerable volatility in Bitcoin's price action. The cryptocurrency made multiple attempts to attain our Interim Coin Rally 88400, yet it ultimately remained at the same level as the week commenced. The current analysis suggests that Bitcoin must reach our Mean Support of 82500 before initiating an upward progression aimed at the Interim Coin Rally of 88400 through the Mean Resistance of 87000. Furthermore, a retest of the completed Outer Coin Dip 78700 is essential before the emergence of a significant rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: As indicated in the analysis from the previous week, the Euro has commenced an upward trend, successfully retesting the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.086 and advancing toward the Mean Resistance level at 1.093. Consequently, the currency is currently experiencing a retreat and is directing its focus toward the Mean Support level at 1.078, possibly declining further to the Mean Support level at 1.061. Conversely, should the anticipated downward trend fail to materialize, it is plausible that the Eurodollar will retest the Mean Resistance level at 1.093 and subsequently aim for the completed Outer Currency Rally level of 1.124, traversing Key Resistance at 1.119 along the way.
by TradeSelecter