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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

The Pound Is Rising on Additional Interest Rate Hike ExpectationThe Bank of England (BoE) has unexpectedly lifted its interest rates to 0.25% from 0.1%, which is the rate at which rates have been set for the last three years without any changes. The move was made on Thursday as inflation in the United Kingdom jumped to 5.1% year-on-year in November from 4.2% a month before. Moreover, the BoE indicated in its statement that inflation would continue to expand to 6% by April 2022, well above its 2% target. The United Kingdom has become the first developed country that has hiked interest rates. Investors suggest that monetary policymakers are ready to make an additional interest rate hike by 25 basis points to 0.5% next February. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this week that it would increase its tapering to $30 billion a month starting mid-January from $15 billion, where it stands at the moment. This could mean an end to its bond-buying program in March 2022. According to the Fed’s dot-plot chart the American monetary watchdog may raise interest rates three times next year and another three times in 2023. What could this particularly mean? In the first place the U.S. Dollar would be a leading party to the European single currency as the European Central bank (ECB) noted on Thursday it will continue with its stimulus bond buying program beyond April 2022. However, some spikes of the Euro should not be excluded. The Pound becomes a leader vs the Greenback, while not only receiving technical reasons for a rally, but fundamental ones too. Once again, I have to note that the Cable is moving alongside the “falling wedge” reversal pattern that may push the Cable to 1.3800. The resistance line of this wedge was broken last Friday, and last Thursday the Cable received additional reasons for the rise finishing the day above EMA13 and EMA21 on the daily timeframe chart. The Pound may receive an additional spin as the “morning star” pattern would be completed this week. The next target for the Cable would be 1.3400-1.3450 that is a resistance of the December 2020 and the September 2021 lows. The closest support level is at 1.3280-1.3285, where it would be certainly interesting to open buy positions.
Long
by scavoanastasiia
The Central Banks Week Will Seal the end of the YearThe last important week for markets has started as the major monetary policymakers are going to hold their last meetings of the year this week. The decisions made by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) will add a final touch to the very successful recovery year which remains clouded by the still developing pandemic. Investors are preparing for the Fed to begin to tackle blistering inflation on a wide scale. Inflation has managed to set another record at 6.8% year-on-year for the month of November. The consumer price index has remained above the 2% target for the ninth consecutive month. So, the Fed must discuss additional tapering this Wednesday and the market is ready for such a scenario. I expect investors’ reaction to such a decision from the Fed to be muted. The end of tapering would allow the Fed to hike its interest rates in the second half of 2022. I have also recently written that the U.S. stock indices have strong chances of ending the year in the green zone, and the closing of the last week of the year may see the Dow Jones index adding some 4.02% and the fact that the S&P 500 broad market index has risen by 3.82% confirms that idea. If there are no surprises at the end of the year, we may expect a mini rally, pushing stock indices to new all-time highs. The ECB and the BoE would hardly rush ahead of the Fed. Some ECB members are expressing caution to delay the decision of any tapering for the next meeting that is scheduled for February 3, saying that there is still not enough information on the new Omicron variant and its impact on the economy. The emerging Omicron variant restored travel restrictions in the European Union and enforced EU nations to decide about mandatory vaccination for everybody. This will be discussed by the EU leaders on December 16. The BoE will have its meeting on the same day as the ECB. The British monetary policymaker is less likely to hike its interest rates now that the Omicron variant has emerged. Still investors consider there is a 65% chance of such a possibility. GBPUSD returned above 1.32 at the end of the previous week forming a reversal “morning star” candlestick pattern. If we consider the decline of the last two months, then we may suggest that we have a descending wedge, which is also a reversal pattern. The resistance of this pattern was already broken last Friday and may indicate further strengthening of the Cable. The nearest targets are at 1.3375 and 1.3480-1.3500. However, if the BoE would dare to be the first to switch to the monetary tightening policy, the Pound may soar to 1.3800 in the mid-term perspective.
by scavoanastasiia
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For December 4, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook: BANG! The bitcoin price has plummeted by around $15,000 over the 24 hours. As of 08:16 GMT today, it was trading at approximately $47,580, down 16.14%, having plummeted by 31.6% from this year's all-time high of $69,000, which it attained on November 10 this year. We are looking at this significant bitcoin market pullback as a "breather" following reaching this low-level price. Notwithstanding, it is possible to see an escalating rally pending Outer Coin Dip 42,500 confirmation (Trade Selecter System BARC) and Key Sup $40,700, which is the potential leading platform (or sooner) for the considerable rebound.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Markets news n°37And it is back! > Biden re-nominates Powell as Fed chair, praising the progress made in the USA *********************** Biden said "we’ve made remarkable progress", and the US admin mentionned the improvement in unemployement as well as economic recovery, shutting down voices of opposition within the US central banking community. No change in direction, we can expect the monetary base to continue to expand at the high pace started a few years ago (followed a couple of years pace higher than the previous one which itself was higher than the previous one). The Federal Reserve has a statement (+ economic numbers) later today (24/11). Maybe a catalyst for markets to move strongly, even more strongly. The WH decision might have ended a period of price uncertainty, finally things can get moving! www.whitehouse.gov > ECB Lagarde also announced nothing will change despite inflation far above target *********************** Guess what? The game of ping pong continues between the US and EU. No that's not ping pong. How do you call the first one that moves loses? Hold my beard first to laugh loses? Anyway, here we go again: Despite inflation more than double of target in Europe (at 4.1% last I heard) Lagarde said rates would probably not increase in 2022. The evil conspiracy of "forcing growth" is ongoing. I'm sure it's going to work out just great. If they create big moves and easy money in the market remember you need to make 4-5% just to breakeven. Passive "rentier" type boomers and unskilled bottom of the chain labor are the ones that lose. And yellow vest protests in France will never end, not until they get a "right-winger" elected, we're getting pretty close now. France might get its own Trump next year. But does anyone mind the transfer of wealth from passive rentier boomers and heirs to active investors? I don't (obviously). > Europe bankers approved new system for stablecoins and more, but said "no rush" *********************** The ECB’s Governing Council announced 2 days ago they approved a new oversight framework for electronic payments, the "payment instruments, schemes and arrangements", or ‘Pisa’, framework. In particular in includes cryptos and stablecoins. 2 weeks ago at the Singapore Fintech Festival several banksters said the adoption of crypto should not be rushed, there should be more caution, while crypto entrepreneur(s) (Nick Ogden from RTGS.global) said it should go faster. Well no big surprise, that's not even news. Entrepreneurs are horny, bankers hate risk. www.ecb.europa.eu > Happy anniversary! Exactly 50 years ago journalists promised they would never lie *********************** Here's something that brings a smile: The Munich Declaration of the Duties and Rights of Journalists was signed by six syndicates of journalists of the six countries of the European community in Munich the 24 November 1971. 50 years. A lot has changed... Here are a few juicy bits: 1) Respecting the truth no matter what consequences it may bring abut to him, and this is because the right of the public is to know the truth. HAHA! 2) Defending the freedom of information, of commentaries and of criticism. CANCEL HIM! 6) Correcting any published information which has proved to be inaccurate. 8) Abstaining from plagiarism, slander, defamation and unfounded accusations... 9) Never confusing the profession of journalist with that of advertiser or propagandist... 10) Refusing any pressure and accepting editorial directives only from the leading persons in charge in the editorial office. > Elon Musk dumps his ponzi bags like Charlie Lee did, and crashes TSLA share price *********************** Remember when Charlie Lee sold his LTC ponzi beans at the very top in 2017 and collapsed the price? With some laughable excuse "I want no conflict of interest". Well richest crook in the world Elon Musk pulled a Charlie Lee, if I understood correctly to keep it simple basically his insiders and investors said in their own words he was a manipulative narcisist and Tesla was better off without him. Similar "conflict of interest" magic trick the guy at the top of the Litecoin pyramid scheme did. Didn't Vitalik also say some similar nonsense? He just wanted to retire from coding at 20, just live off his bags. Lazy. Price could be early in a correction > From the WSJ: covid deaths in 2021 in the USA have surpassed the 2020 number *********************** Americans, champions of obesity, recently surpassed their previous record in the area of covid deaths. And there is another month to go. The record was surpassed by early November, and 2020 death did only start in March-April. So it's going to be I guess about as bad. Despite all the vaccination and boosters and lockdowns and masks and capitalistic vitamin health improvement pills suckers buy and absolutely-everything-possible-except-losing-weight. If I may give my personal experience I noticed my landlord, before 2020, was in charge of managing his clients, went out to walk every day. And after 2020 lockdowns his wife was managing everything and he was barely standing, with a stick. I think he is recovering he is walking faster than a turtle now. I thought he was about to die, these covid "saving lives" policies really hit him. That's the only old person I know (and I haven't gotten anywhere close to him, self distancing), otherwise I haven't gotten sick in 5 years and if the media didn't tell me I wouldn't even know this virus existed. Living among us there are millions of terrified, isolated old childless boomers that never go out I don't even know exist - other than from statistics. Just rotting in their houses, waiting to die, right under my nose. A bit crazy to think of. Bruh I just thought... maybe there are some thousands of houses with dead people in them right now. Did anyone check? Damn. The WSJ is suggesting the reason for this virus still being so relatively deadly is lower-than-expected immunization rates as well as fatigue with precautionary measures like masks. Interesting because a few days ago France PM caught covid and seems he gave it to other members of the government, after he was seen not wearing a mask and touching everywhere with his hands. He is getting roasted a lot. www.wsj.com
by MrRenev
2
NZD CHF Update: A successful rejection in the booksFor months, the pair has struggled to close above the 50 Month Moving Average. It may be getting a successful rejection of an area full of support including the 200 Day Moving Average and the 0.382 fibonacci level. Patience is key as the Swiss Franc has been strong recently with weakness showing up in the past 2 weeks - partly because speculators are betting that the Swiss Central Bank will step in to control the currency amid the strength. On the other hand, New Zealand abandoned the zero COVID-19 policy as the government has acknowledged that the people will have to learn to live with the virus. This will give the economy and the currency the support needed to recover.
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
Smart Money is buying Real Bitcoin, selling USD and fake BitcoinPretty easy to see as a full time crypto trader wall street and smart money is trading in paper air Bitcoin bears with bulls here. $100K and $200K this year. Easy. It's not real estate or Bitcoin or other real assets going up, it's FIAT going down faster that we can tell because governement backed currencies are bankrupt and without a floor. Inflation will continue to rampant except in economies that peg on a fix and verifiable central reserve currency. Bitcoin from 2008, has proven itself.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
1