Macro - Inflationary ShockModel Forecast for Inflation:
- Model has forecasted an inflationary shock a la oil & Volcker in 1970s-1980s.
- The date is November-December 2021 or 2022.
- The nature of the event has yet to be determined, but it is speculated that the shortage will be in liquidity itself.
- This will be followed by aggressive global monetary policies to combat stagflation, but a period of deflation will follow.
- It is likely that a financial lockdown, and a restructuring of the global financial system will occur.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas
How I work in Forex: Nzd-Usd analysisIn this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target).
Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my eye was Usd-Nzd. The price is at a level that is not sustainable in the long run for the New Zealand economy. In the last few years, the area 0.72300/0.72800 has been a very important level for Nzd-Usd and above that, the currency pair would be in an area of excess price (actually, already above 0.70000 Nzd-Usd is in an area of excess price).
The operation that I am going to open has an optical of the medium-long period, if you are not in a position to hold open the position also for several months, do not replicate it.
Let us proceed. The first thing I decide in each of my operations is how much I am willing to lose. My maximum loss is not equal for all the operations, with some more "particular" I have a smaller propensity to the risk. An example is precisely this operation. Although Nzd-Usd belongs to the currency pairs so-called "Majors," the New Zealand dollar is very similar to an "Exotic" currency, therefore with less volume and consequently more volatile and easily speculate. And besides, I already have other long positions on USD. For these reasons, I have decided that my maximum loss on the whole operation is $ 500, and based on the stop-loss, I will decide the position size to open.
I now analyse Nzd-Usd trying to understand how it might move in the coming weeks and establish the type of trade and the entry-level. Above, you can see the daily chart with the Nzd-Usd sensitive levels highlighted.
New Zealand had less impact from the covid-19 pandemic and this allowed its economy to be less affected. This led to a strong rise in its currency to the 0.75000 area against the US dollar. New Zealand, however, has a strongly export-based economy and a currency so strong, as mentioned earlier, is not sustainable in the long run.
The New Zealand dollar also strengthened as many expected the central bank to intervene with a rate hike, "the Committee agreed that the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, conditional on ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. The Committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives. Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience."
However, this is currently unlikely, at least in the short term. Also because in recent months the New Zealand economy has slowed down, "Economic activity in New Zealand slowed over the summer months following the earlier rebound in domestic activity. December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced. Some members noted that supply chain disruptions could potentially constrain domestic activity in the near term. In addition, business credit growth and investment remain subdued."
As for the US, the focus in recent weeks has been on inflation following the entry into force of Biden's economic stimulus plan, "with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal (2%), the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2 per cent."
In the March "Summary of Economic Projections," the PCE inflation forecast for 2021 rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in December, and the Core PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. Inflation is forecast at 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2022 for both. In the same document, you can see (you can find it on the Federal Reserve's website) that in March compared to December the GDP forecast was raised (to 6.5% in 2021 from 4.2% in December) and the unemployment rate lowered (to 4.5% in 2021 from 5.0% in December).
Macroeconomic analysis shows what has already emerged above with New Zealand's data deteriorating in recent months while US data is improving almost steadily. If the vaccination continues apace, the US economy will recover quickly, as the UK economy is doing in Europe.
Once the analysis is complete, how do I intend to proceed? I do not want to open the operation at once. The moment is particular and I would not be surprised to see Nzd-Usd go up even 300 pips. So, I decided to open a spy order at 0.72400 to see how the currency pair will react to that level.
I will place the primary order, which is larger in size as it is closer to the stop-loss, at 0.73700. For both orders, spy order and primary order, I destine the same maximum loss, which I had decided to be $ 500, so my maximum loss for the two types of orders is $ 250 each. Now with the Value-at-Risk, I calculate the stop-loss and with the stop-loss, I calculate the size of the two orders.
To be precise, I use CVaR to calculate the stop-loss (it is all explained in my book on fundamental analysis in forex) and the calculation gives me a stop-loss at 0.75200. I now calculate the two position sizes.
Ultimately, I will open a short position of $ 9,000 at 0.72400 (spy order) and a short position of $ 17,000 at 0.73700 (primary order), with a stop-loss at 0.75200. As for the target, I always like to see how the currency pair moves to assess where to take profit.
This, somewhat summarised, is how I work in Forex, how I analyse a currency pair and how I organise the whole operation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates on holdThe Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates on hold, at the historically low level of 0.1 percent, it was expected to last until at least 2024.
MM Analysis
1. Monetary Policy
- Keeps interest rates on hold, at 0.1 percent
- The initial $100 billion government bond purchase program is almost complete and the second $100 billion program will commence next week.
2. Economic forecast
- The rollout of vaccines is supporting the recovery of the global economy, although the recovery is uneven.
- The economic recovery in Australia is well under way and is stronger than had been expected.
- CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily because of the reversal of some COVID-19-related price reductions but inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent over the next few years.
3. Forward Guidance
- The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range, it does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.
4. Conclusion
- The RBA statement meets the market expectation, although employment rate has returned to the pre Covid-19 level, when the salary subsidy policy expires, the employment market is still uncerntain. The Bank of Australia has once again stated that it will not raise interest rates before 2024. In conclusion, this statement maintains dovishness.
The Bank of Canada's recent moves on Quantitative EasingOn 23rd March, Bank of Canada announced the discontinuation of market functioning programs introduced during COVID-19, according to the deputy governor Toni Gravelle.
MM analysis
The discontinuation included the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP), the Provincial Bond Purchase Program (PBPP), and the Corporate Bond Purchase Program (CBPP), these programs would be deactivated on April and May. In addition, the Bank is announcing changes to its Term Repo operations and the Contingent Term RepoFacility (CTRF).
The bank would look at raising its key interest rate from 0.25 per cent, which it doesn’t foresee happening until 2023. The bank of Canada is the first developed country to imply it's end of quantitative easing. The Canadian dollar recorded a slight increase on 23rd March.
ZenMode Snapshot: Bitcoin Fundamental/Technical AnalysisStill think the fundamentals for bitcoin are incredibly bullish:
Miners:
Outflows - Bearish
Miners still depositing to exchanges - Bearish
BTC Whales:
Reserves Increasing - Bullish
Transferring BTC off exchanges - Bullish
Institutions:
Still a narrative of corporations acquiring BTC in leu of traditional treasury assets - like treasuries
Bombarded with treasury yields now indicating inflation is coming
$1.9 T Stimulus
I have gotten questions about why the sell off in commodities, crypto, treasuries and equities last week - and aside from technical reasons, the article sourced below from Bloomberg is a must read:
"Already low short-term interest rates are set to sink further, potentially below zero, after the Treasury announced plans earlier this month to reduce the stockpile of cash it amassed at the Fed over the last year to fight the pandemic and the deep recession it caused. The move, which aims to return its cash position at the central bank to more normal levels, will flood the financial system with liquidity and complicate Powell’s effort to keep a tight grip over money market rates.”
" ... a drop in short-term market rates into negative territory could prove disruptive, especially for money market funds that invest in short-dated Treasury securities. Banks may also find themselves hamstrung by effectively being forced to hold large unwanted cash balances at the central bank. The Treasury’s decision -- unveiled at its quarterly refunding announcement -- will help unleash what Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Zoltan Pozsar calls a “tsunami” of reserves into the financial system and on to the Fed’s balance sheet. Combined with the Fed’s asset purchases, that could swell reserves to about $5 trillion by the end of June, from an already lofty $3.3 trillion now."
"Here’s how it works: Treasury sends out checks drawn on its general account at the Fed, which operates like the government’s checking account. When recipients deposit the funds with their bank, the bank presents the check to the Fed, which debits the Treasury’s account and credits the bank’s Fed account, otherwise known as their reserve balance."
So think about this from the perspective of a financial institution, they would have to make the Treasury market holding a product with potentially negative yield - while also forced to buy insurance on the larger reserves they will need to manage. If you are a financial institution are you going to want to offer financing in the overnight market that has negative yield so a company you work with can hold Treasuries? And with the flood of Treasuries & Liquidity this also has muscled up the 5Y yield while the repo market might potentially be going negative. With the 5Y yield up now in Treasuries I am reading how the 10Y yield is comparable now to the SPY Dividend of 1.45% - and keep in mind the reduced risks in holding Treasuries. They are practically as good as gold for a corpo.
10Y Yield
10Y Bond
5Y Yield
5Y Bond
So while the Federal Reserve controls the Federal Funds Rate, the Treasury Department can absolutely impact the yield in treasuries, and impact the overnight rate.
This hurt risk assets, as the market now needs to price in Treasuries actually offering yields potentially worth getting into. A fascinating exchange exchange with MicroStrategy CEO Saylor talking to Bloomberg discusses thought that even now this yield is a pittance when compared to the cost of capital for companies. It is telling that a company with modest cash flow is saying that rather that investing into their operations further, and rather than giving back to shareholders, or doing share buy backs they are purchasing bitcoin as the yield on bitcoin is stunning relative to Treasuries or holding a basket of FANG stocks.
Really interesting interview worth watching:
www.youtube.com
The key is if other executives will follow the lead of TSLA, SQ, MSTR and add Bitcoin on the balance sheet. While it may seem unconventional, keep in mind if you are a multinational corporation it is perfectly normal to have hundreds of bank accounts, like Disney, Microsoft or Facebook for example because you have vendors all over the world you will need to compensate for their services, in their currencies.
Technical Snapshots:
If price continues to sell off nice confluence of support with pivot points/fibonacci fan & bollingers at $40k - $40k breaks, we could hit $38k rather rapidly before I imagine buyers will be attracted
Bulls will have a tough time breaking $48.5k followed by $50k . Even then, we might form a lower higher, and test support yet another time before continuing to new ATH
I remain long, and am nibbling on dips, and enjoying these rips. I plan on adding to the position if we break $40k. My exit strategy will be to bail If we fall under $28k, as at that point I would have 3X'd the initial cost basis of this position.
In closing, do not forget, why is the Repo market going negative, and why are 5Y yields rising? Inflation concerns. The formula for inflation is M2*V= inflation. Velocity will increase as the nation opens back up causing inflation, especially as the M2 supply is about to take on another jolt. I suspect this stimulus will pass, and I think Bitcoin is a potential lifeboat when inflation hits. Yes, we need to price in treasuries now - and yes I thought it was bonkers that the market suddenly tanks treasuries to pop yield for inflation and then - the market rotates into the dollar? So inflation is coming and the dollar rises as it did on Friday? I think I would recommend parking some wealth in the bitcoin lifeboat. Perhaps a moonshot, but this macro-narrative warrants it in my opinion.
Final Quote coming from Michael Burry last week:
"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket." #ParadigmShift
— Cassandra (@michaeljburry) February 20, 2021
Good luck traders! If you enjoy please be sure to hit the like button, and tell me what you think! Hope you all make a million! :)
Keep in mind when the gold-bitcoin bears come out saying that it is too volatile, it is worth advising that even with this sell off you can still acquire an ounce of gold for only 0.038 BTC:
Or 745 barrels of oil:
Source:
www.bloomberg.com
VIX to 0?!?In terms of long term allocation, I wouldn't touch equities with a ten-foot pole!
That being said, with the amount of currency being created every second, all prices will continue to rise exponentially, and the proximity of financial assets to the source of this inflation (the Federal Reserve) will continue to favor their valuations!
Would a uncontrolled rise in treasury yields lead to a sizeable correction in equities and a rising VIX? Absolutely.
Is it likely that the Federal Reserve would intervene to an even greater extent than the 2008 and 2019 Global Financial Crises? Absolutely.
Therefore, I believe the long term trend of volatility in all prices is much, much lower...
Cycle is up for treasuries and down for the yield.One picture is better than a thousand words, everything is seen on the chart. We should see weakness soon and a weekly close below 0.9 could lead to a retest of the lows at 0.36. Cycle is down till mid February. In April when the triangle ends we might see a total smoke show, possibly on the upside - looking at cycles but that's for another time...
Buy silver.
Buy gold.
Is it too late to long Bitcoin?Feeling late to the crypto party? Please friends keep in mind that less than 0.5% of the planet are long Bitcoin yet. As I have said, even on the terms of thinking generationally, we are still in the genesis.
As Lord Elon Musk himself stated recently, "There is a good chance crypto, is the future currency of earth."
My take as has been consistent through this whole bull market, is "nibble on dips and enjoy the rips".
My plan for bailing on my massive bitcoin position is when the Fed starts touting raising interest rates.
What happened with Bitcoin literally this week?
Fed comes out publishing a paper mentioning strengths the DeFi network will bring to consumers research.stlouisfed.org
Fed's academic paper literally mentions wrapped Eth -right on their website.
Miami FL proposes for local taxes to be paid in Bitcoin, and for employees to have a percentage of wages paid in Bitcoin. nypost.com
Nigerian Senate advises that "Bitcoin has made our currency almost useless or valueless"... just shocking
Jack Dorsey & Jay Z invest 500 BTC to make Bitcoin "Internet Currency in an endowment to fund development in Africa & India" techcrunch.com
BNY Mellon (America's oldest bank) offers institutions access to Bitcoin www.wsj.com
JPMorgan co-president and COO Daniel Pinto has said that the banking giant will support bitcoin trading if there is client demand for it.
Exciting times friends. And I must advise that if you even view Bitcoin as a moonshot - even moonshots deserve a small bit of exposure within any portfolio aiming at the stars. This is not financial advice, but my personal opinion as I have certainly partake in this mindsight with much more than a small bit of exposure as the bull market clearly unfolded. www.theblockcrypto.com
Additional Citation:
finance.yahoo.com
www.cnbc.com
twitter.com
Crypto is in a Bubble: Prove me Wrong!Do you think crypto is in a bubble that will pop soon? Or is it still going much higher?
Tune into my live stream on Sunday January 31st at 5:30pm EST to respectfully discuss and debate!
SHARE YOUR OPINIONS AND QUESTIONS IN THE CHAT, they are encouraged and will be answered!
www.tradingview.com
Crypto is in a Bubble: Change My Mind!Do you think crypto is in a bubble that will pop soon? Or is it still going much higher?
Tune into my live stream on Sunday January 31st at 5:30pm EST to respectfully discuss and debate!
SHARE YOUR OPINIONS AND QUESTIONS IN THE CHAT, they are encouraged and will be answered!
www.tradingview.com
Make or Break Time!A telling divergence has occurred between the price of action of gold and silver!
While gold prices in late-November/early-December formed a lower low, silver prices formed a higher high!
It is well understood that silver outperforms gold in precious metals bull markets!
Is this divergence therefore indicating that we seen the lows in this period of correction and another move higher is coming?
Or is gold indicating that another severe fall in the price of silver is coming?
I believe the falling wedge that has been formed in gold's recent price action has been fulfilled and we are about to see a significant move higher in precious metal prices!
Where will Demand become Supply?Are we looking at a small rally? Or a serious correction upwards?
An easing phase by the ECB combined with rising interest rates may trigger some temporary strength in the U.S. dollar!
This could spell a correction period for asset prices (or not), but most importantly it could send gold and silver prices on another leg downwards, putting them absolutely on sale!
Any dollar-induced dips in commodities, gold and silver especially, should be bought hand over fist!
GDP is Collapsing!If you compare GDP to the amount of currency in existence, it has been falling for 2 decades!
Remember, M2 is a fraction of the total money supply, therefore GDP has fallen by even more!
Ironically, people fail to realize that Money Velocity, what they point to as causing "deflation", is a much better indicator of stagflation!
It is likely that the exploding currency supply will begin to leak into goods and services rather than remain within the financial system!
This will send GDP higher, which of course all the politicians will point to as proof of the success of their policies, but in reality this will simply means bigger bills for you at the grocery store!
Hiding in Plain Sight!A massive cup and handle pattern has been completed on Silver!
This same patterns can be seen on the charts of the price of gold and silver in Venezuela and Zimbabwe before their hyperinflations!
Bank of Canada to Cut Interest Rates Next Week?My readers and followers are up to date on the ongoing currency war. Central banks are attempting to weaken their currencies in order to boost inflation and exports. The export part is self explanatory and well known, but the inflation aspect involves the classical economics definition of inflation. Inflation is the weakening of a currency where it takes more of the weaker currency to buy something which gives the appearance of prices rising. It really is the currency that is weakening. Now the Bank of Canada is set to make its next move in the global currency war.
Just a quick recap: central banks have three ways to weaken their currencies:
1.Rhetoric. This is the most common way central bankers weaken or strengthen a currency. Also why the press conferences are closely monitored by traders. Chairmen (and women) use diction and rhetoric as a way of telling market participants what they are planning on doing in the future. The market reacts and prices this in. The currency moves in the way the central bank wanted.
2. Interest Rate Cuts. This is the next step up using interest rate differentials to either strengthen or weaken the currency.
3. Quantitative Easing. The final and most extreme way to weaken the currency using supply and demand principles.
Most central banks have exhausted 2 and 3. The European Central Bank is the one I have been following for awhile. The ECB is trying to weaken the Euro as the European Union is a heavy export union. The problem has been the US Dollar, the true winner of the currency war so far. Since the US Dollar is the reserve currency, if the US Dollar is dropping, the other currency is strengthening. This includes the Euro, the Pound, the Loonie, the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, the Yen etc. The ECB increased their emergency asset program up to 1.8 Trillion Euro's in December. The Euro popped. Now all the ECB has left is to cut rates deeper into the negative. Expect this to happen.
"Money markets see an increased chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates closer to zero, as tightening economic restrictions to contain a second wave of COVID-19 cases offset optimism that activity will rebound later this year.
Interest rates were thought to have hit rock bottom in Canada after they were slashed 150 basis points last March to a record low of 0.25 per cent, a level the Bank of Canada considered the effective lower bound. But in November, Governor Tiff Macklem said a lower floor could allow Canada’s central bank to ease further if the economy weakens."
After these statements, the expectations for Canada to cut rates next week has increased. But don't worry, it is not negative rates. Yet. The Bank of Canada is expected to do a microcut, or an interest rate cut less than 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada's rate currently is 0.25%, and expectations are rates to decrease to 0.10%.
Microcuts have occurred already.
"Other central banks have moved in small increments. In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.1 per cent, while the Bank of England did the same last March."
The Bank of England is now expecting to enter negative rates sometime before June of this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be next, and I am sure the Bank of Canada and then eventually the Federal Reserve will follow.
All to attempt to weaken the currency, and why I have been saying the trade is out of fiat. Hard assets/commodities and cryptocurrencies are the way to play this going forward.
Let's take a look at the USDCAD.
The Loonie has been appreciating against the US Dollar as the Dollar (DXY) keeps sliding. You have seen in my previous posts, that I believe the DXY is at a MAJOR support zone and a relief rally is highly probable.
Funnily enough, the USDCAD is also at a major support zone, and is looking like the Dollar will strengthen against the Loonie. On my chart, I have drawn a trendline which is a popular way to determine when a trend shift occurs. If price closes above the trendline, the Loonie will depreciate against the US Dollar.
However, I am hoping we develop a right shoulder to create a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline being the zone above in blue at the 1.30 zone. This would imply price pops up, and then retraces before breaking and closing above.
The interest rate cut could be the catalyst for the reversal pattern. This was expected. This is the currency war.
I will going to bougth Silver!!! Why?Hello, in that analysis on macrotrend and dedicated more to invest for commodities, specially Silver. We see that monthly timeframe it's so bullish in long term toward to reach up new higher price. So, Silver show us a good opportunity to continue bought Silver contracts in any broker. I use Prime XBT and with Prime XBT you can to multiply your bitcoin and apply this strategy, So, for that reason, I foudn out this analysis very interesting if you want to invest in Silver for bought assets or bought by contract just the increment your capital. But for that reason, Silver it's a metal very important and the use it's money like Gold to protect and store your money value in the hard assets that are autonomous, soberany and solid assets that they'll protect your money agains the inflation. In that case, the U.S. Dollar it's the unique currencies that has been devaluated their value in front of other assets, specially Bitcoin. So guys, I say you again, the U.S. Dollar it's not support for much, this will be weakness as central bank create and print out more money incontrolable, for that you need to wake up in this situation on how the central bank of your country it's be benefited throughout of the ignorance that people don't know it how monetary system work.
For that, I bought Silver oz to multiply my Bitcoin quantity in Prime XBT. So, you can to buy Silver becuase in the monthly timeframe we confirm that Silver goes to up. But my own reccomendation it's to put a buy order limit. In my case, I put a buy order limit at $24.40 USD with a SL at $20.70 USD and my own target profit will be the maximum price that are the $50 dollars.
The Top 5 Fundamental Currency DriversThe goal of this article is to understand what really moves the markets.
1. Central Bank Decisions
These organizations manage the countries monetary system and policy.
They control the countries money supply and operate through specific mandates.
Stable inflation is a common mandate applicable to the majority of central banks.
Interest rates are a crucial tool used by them to reach their mandates.
Changes in interest rates have a tremendous impact on the Forex markets.
Rate decisions from central banks can cause lots of volatility.
They’re also great opportunities for making money.
For this reason, interest rates should be something all Forex traders monitor.
Good to start here as a beginner in fundamentals.
2. Economic News Releases
News releases like:
GDP Gross Domestic Product
CPI Consumer Price Index
Employment Data like average earnings, NFP, and unemployment Rate
could have a huge impact on interest rate decisions and traders always have expectations on these releases if it differs from it market reacts.
3. Geopolitical Events
Politicians are an important part of the market moves.
Investors seek stable economies, also tax decisions and fiscal policy decisions are drivers of the market.
4. Natural Disasters
Things like earthquakes or tsunamis can negatively affect a country’s economy.
5. Intermarket Movements
Equities Bonds and Commodities are all connected to each other so one spike in an asset class could lead to moves in the other asset classes too.
Things like risk aversion and risk appetite are a daily play on the markets because the risk is a great factor of daily currency moves.
Safe haven bids are bonds Japanese yen and Swiss franc in a market crash these assets have money inflows.
Hope you enjoyed this small article for more information visit my website vitezabraham.com.
Have a Nice day!
Vitez
New Agriculture Commodity Bull Market The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio.
In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength.
If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at $IPI Intrepid Potash $Corn $Sugar.
With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like $ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of $ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market.
Additionally, $ICL is a similar company to $IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, $ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while $IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution.
Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
Manipulation is Ending!As demand for physical gold and silver explode, the banksters' ability to keep prices artificially low are failing!
Scotiabank ended it's 350-year role in the precious metals market and J.P. Morgan (the most infamous manipulator) is no longer net short after the bear trap in March 2020.
The banks who do not terminate their short positions will suffer massive losses as gold and silver prices soar, just like A.I.G., Bear Sterns, The Lehman Brothers and Merill Lynch in 2008!