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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Eco/monetary news n°30> The most sociopathic despair scam and the scammiest of all "it's the future" tech/blockchain scams in the same year. I love scams. And I love criticizing them. I love warning people, and I love when deluded bagholders get mad. First scam (family of scams): With covid, crooks are jumping on the new opportunities which are the vaccine scams. You got the fake vaccine certificates, those are not the worst, and you got the fake vaccines. China dismantled a whole criminal network of 80 fake vaccine traffickers, some countries found that hundred of people got "vaccinated" with water. I am not going to debate on the various vaccine efficiency but I can tell you: If you are getting some phy serum injected, you are NOT immune. And the second scam: Less dangerous (to health) than the vaccine scams, I present Earth 2. Ah, the virtual Earth. See, thousands of idiots are paying thousands of dollars (yes yes) to buy squares of a jpeg of earth taken from google map. The project not only has nothing but - this is just too much - their TERMS AND SERVICES clearly states they have no intention to work on the project, none of the info displayed on their website is correct, and they can run away with your money at any time without any warning. It's really in their terms. I have never seen a scam just tell "people" (are real humans falling for this?) that basically it was a scam. On top of checking every single box in the signs of a scam! Dumb morons that fell for this crap claim that it's the future and skeptics just don't get it (here we go again), and that it can't be a scam because it is on the blockchain (wat?). I am not a skeptic, if I was I'd have doubts, here I have 0 doubts I know for a fact it is a scam. I have never seen anything this stupid. This is the record. I noticed they often liked crypto and Tesla, go figure. > Told you China were panicking about their demographics! Get used to the 3 child policy. That was quick (not really). So here we are. I mentionned a few weeks ago that China got its official reproduction numbers about which it was in denial. They started banning (modern) feminists that they consider are part of the issue which made quite a few people smile (or laugh). And now they are changing their old child policy and aiming for 3. In a way it was quick, this comes 1-2 months after the news. But in another way it is really slow as forgive me for saying but that was extremely easy to predict. "You can't predict the future" what a joke! Another prediction: It will take at the very least 20 years to fix the problem! Amazing call! > While Israel FX reserves reach a historic high, a centrist & far-right alliance uses the war to challenge Netanyahou. Israel, which has been accumulating assets for a while and was running out of ideas of what to buy with all that money, just saw its FX reserve cross $194 billion, almost half the country GDP. Still far behind Singapore thought. This did not stop the center & far right of the country to make an alliance to try and replace Netanyahou, obviously not for financial reasons, with the far right frontman potentially being able to become the new PM. He is in strong support of settling in Palestinian territory. And has the support of the centrists. I told you, it's possible for far right to get support from elsewhere in the political spectrum. The left/right divide doesn't make much sense 200 years after the french revolution, and the sides have kept getting redefined. Talking of France, the far right could get the support of what's left of the left (they score about 15% in polls), if you don't understand how relevant that is, make sure to trade EURUSD with high leverage in April 2022, you might get a lesson you won't forget anytime soon. > Brrrrr: New York FED sees record use of its reverse repo facility. They're puking the cash back! There is too much! It almost reminds me of Japan. Almost because I wasn't a trader back then. Companies and Wall Street got way too much socialism, they don't know what to do with the money. Unlike the government that will spend it tills its worth nothing. The numbers reached about 500 billion in a single night, and last week ended at around $2 trillion. "Stimulus". You can't just throw money and "poof" it's magical everybody is happy. Some people aren't even going to work... I don't understand how anyone over the age of 25 can fall for the "stimulus" joke. Is Zimbabwe the most powerful nation in the world? NO. Money is a tool why can't people understand this extremely simple fact? You can use it for example to give capital to legitime and productive companies, and withhold it from WASTEFUL CROOKS such as THERANOS and TESLA. This ensures resources are allocated more ideally which obviously will make a country more strong. > Central Bank Digital Currencies continue to make progress all around the world, and competition is backing down. A lot is happening. Here is a list: - The bank of Korea is starting its 10 month CDBC trial in August - Facebook crypto org quit Switzerland to come back to the USA, and said that if the FED was to make its own crypto, they would drop theirs - A prominent analyst at HSBC wrote an article explaining that China CDBC could help get its currency adopted worldwide - Sweden Riksbank announced friday it was moving to phase 2: doing more than simulations, with a bank and an IT company - Brazil got on board, publishing general guidelines about its own digital currency > The next Venezuela/Argentine/Zimbabwe/Sudan? Tunisia central banks asks loan from the IMF to avoid "explosion". In this era of fiat and demagogues making childish promises to gullible electors, countries are collapsing on a yearly basis. Will Tunisia be yet another name to add to the list? It's governor thinks so, if someone solvent doesn't give them - err I mean "loan" - money. The governor begged the IMF to answer yes to the PM proposal to get loans in exchange for economic reforms. Someone has to pay for socialism. Would be quite bold to ask the IMF to kindly be that fool, and for even more money to continue throwing it around to get votes. The head of government said he was prepared to make cuts in throwing money at (inefficient and wasteful) state owned companies, as well as civil servant wages. You get all these countries collapsing, but the public doesn't react. Nothing changes. There are no coups either. The USA/NATO preventing those? This sounds so insane but: AHEM! The trend of countries collapsing every month is not sustainable. At some point it will all explode. Once the US are no longer able to be the world police, and their allies (Germany, Norway) are no longer able to throw money & stuff at failed states (Greece, every socialist country in the world). "Helping" people doesn't actually help them. It's like getting rich quick, it's actually the slowest way.
by MrRenev
The Stock Market Not a Reflection of The EconomyWe are living through the greatest economic expansion in American history. It has become very clear to me that the stock market is no longer a measurement nor reflection of the health of the "real economy" where average everyday people make their income. If it was then the federal minimum wage should be over $30 an hour compared to economic gains our economy has made in the past 30 years. The full-time and part-time employees, freelance and gig economy workers, and your average mom & pop small business owners will continually become displaced and outsourced as automation technology grows and the elite multi-national capitalist dramatically cut their labor cost through automation this decade & beyond. We've hit the top 4.236 of this Fibonacci cycle I have going from the high of December 2007 to a low on November 2008. 13 years and growing of financial prosperity on paper but not so much in reality. The gap between the rich and the poor have never been more grotesque in the history of capitalism. Our government is in the practice of creating infinite amounts of money that some how never gets to the people that actually are in desperate need of financial resources. That seems like a recipe for disaster and social unrest to me. Don't even get me started in the tsunami of inflation that will be coming. If we drop coming back down to 1.618 may be a decent support area for the market (we dropped to the 1.618 during COVID-19 Quarantine). That would be a 56% retrace from these current levels. Can we actually keep the economy growing from these levels once the infinite money creating stops? Or will it ever even stop at this point?
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by peacefuljustin
2
Macro - Inflationary ShockModel Forecast for Inflation: - Model has forecasted an inflationary shock a la oil & Volcker in 1970s-1980s. - The date is November-December 2021 or 2022. - The nature of the event has yet to be determined, but it is speculated that the shortage will be in liquidity itself. - This will be followed by aggressive global monetary policies to combat stagflation, but a period of deflation will follow. - It is likely that a financial lockdown, and a restructuring of the global financial system will occur. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
How I work in Forex: Nzd-Usd analysisIn this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target). Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my eye was Usd-Nzd. The price is at a level that is not sustainable in the long run for the New Zealand economy. In the last few years, the area 0.72300/0.72800 has been a very important level for Nzd-Usd and above that, the currency pair would be in an area of excess price (actually, already above 0.70000 Nzd-Usd is in an area of excess price). The operation that I am going to open has an optical of the medium-long period, if you are not in a position to hold open the position also for several months, do not replicate it. Let us proceed. The first thing I decide in each of my operations is how much I am willing to lose. My maximum loss is not equal for all the operations, with some more "particular" I have a smaller propensity to the risk. An example is precisely this operation. Although Nzd-Usd belongs to the currency pairs so-called "Majors," the New Zealand dollar is very similar to an "Exotic" currency, therefore with less volume and consequently more volatile and easily speculate. And besides, I already have other long positions on USD. For these reasons, I have decided that my maximum loss on the whole operation is $ 500, and based on the stop-loss, I will decide the position size to open. I now analyse Nzd-Usd trying to understand how it might move in the coming weeks and establish the type of trade and the entry-level. Above, you can see the daily chart with the Nzd-Usd sensitive levels highlighted. New Zealand had less impact from the covid-19 pandemic and this allowed its economy to be less affected. This led to a strong rise in its currency to the 0.75000 area against the US dollar. New Zealand, however, has a strongly export-based economy and a currency so strong, as mentioned earlier, is not sustainable in the long run. The New Zealand dollar also strengthened as many expected the central bank to intervene with a rate hike, "the Committee agreed that the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, conditional on ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. The Committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives. Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience." However, this is currently unlikely, at least in the short term. Also because in recent months the New Zealand economy has slowed down, "Economic activity in New Zealand slowed over the summer months following the earlier rebound in domestic activity. December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced. Some members noted that supply chain disruptions could potentially constrain domestic activity in the near term. In addition, business credit growth and investment remain subdued." As for the US, the focus in recent weeks has been on inflation following the entry into force of Biden's economic stimulus plan, "with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal (2%), the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2 per cent." In the March "Summary of Economic Projections," the PCE inflation forecast for 2021 rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in December, and the Core PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. Inflation is forecast at 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2022 for both. In the same document, you can see (you can find it on the Federal Reserve's website) that in March compared to December the GDP forecast was raised (to 6.5% in 2021 from 4.2% in December) and the unemployment rate lowered (to 4.5% in 2021 from 5.0% in December). Macroeconomic analysis shows what has already emerged above with New Zealand's data deteriorating in recent months while US data is improving almost steadily. If the vaccination continues apace, the US economy will recover quickly, as the UK economy is doing in Europe. Once the analysis is complete, how do I intend to proceed? I do not want to open the operation at once. The moment is particular and I would not be surprised to see Nzd-Usd go up even 300 pips. So, I decided to open a spy order at 0.72400 to see how the currency pair will react to that level. I will place the primary order, which is larger in size as it is closer to the stop-loss, at 0.73700. For both orders, spy order and primary order, I destine the same maximum loss, which I had decided to be $ 500, so my maximum loss for the two types of orders is $ 250 each. Now with the Value-at-Risk, I calculate the stop-loss and with the stop-loss, I calculate the size of the two orders. To be precise, I use CVaR to calculate the stop-loss (it is all explained in my book on fundamental analysis in forex) and the calculation gives me a stop-loss at 0.75200. I now calculate the two position sizes. Ultimately, I will open a short position of $ 9,000 at 0.72400 (spy order) and a short position of $ 17,000 at 0.73700 (primary order), with a stop-loss at 0.75200. As for the target, I always like to see how the currency pair moves to assess where to take profit. This, somewhat summarised, is how I work in Forex, how I analyse a currency pair and how I organise the whole operation.
Education
by TradingwDavid
2
The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates on holdThe Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates on hold, at the historically low level of 0.1 percent, it was expected to last until at least 2024. MM Analysis 1. Monetary Policy - Keeps interest rates on hold, at 0.1 percent - The initial $100 billion government bond purchase program is almost complete and the second $100 billion program will commence next week. 2. Economic forecast - The rollout of vaccines is supporting the recovery of the global economy, although the recovery is uneven. - The economic recovery in Australia is well under way and is stronger than had been expected. - CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily because of the reversal of some COVID-19-related price reductions but inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent over the next few years. 3. Forward Guidance - The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range, it does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest. 4. Conclusion - The RBA statement meets the market expectation, although employment rate has returned to the pre Covid-19 level, when the salary subsidy policy expires, the employment market is still uncerntain. The Bank of Australia has once again stated that it will not raise interest rates before 2024. In conclusion, this statement maintains dovishness.
by MacroMicro_Global
The Bank of Canada's recent moves on Quantitative EasingOn 23rd March, Bank of Canada announced the discontinuation of market functioning programs introduced during COVID-19, according to the deputy governor Toni Gravelle. MM analysis The discontinuation included the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP), the Provincial Bond Purchase Program (PBPP), and the Corporate Bond Purchase Program (CBPP), these programs would be deactivated on April and May. In addition, the Bank is announcing changes to its Term Repo operations and the Contingent Term RepoFacility (CTRF). The bank would look at raising its key interest rate from 0.25 per cent, which it doesn’t foresee happening until 2023. The bank of Canada is the first developed country to imply it's end of quantitative easing. The Canadian dollar recorded a slight increase on 23rd March.
by MacroMicro_Global
1
ZenMode Snapshot: Bitcoin Fundamental/Technical AnalysisStill think the fundamentals for bitcoin are incredibly bullish: Miners: Outflows - Bearish Miners still depositing to exchanges - Bearish BTC Whales: Reserves Increasing - Bullish Transferring BTC off exchanges - Bullish Institutions: Still a narrative of corporations acquiring BTC in leu of traditional treasury assets - like treasuries Bombarded with treasury yields now indicating inflation is coming $1.9 T Stimulus I have gotten questions about why the sell off in commodities, crypto, treasuries and equities last week - and aside from technical reasons, the article sourced below from Bloomberg is a must read: "Already low short-term interest rates are set to sink further, potentially below zero, after the Treasury announced plans earlier this month to reduce the stockpile of cash it amassed at the Fed over the last year to fight the pandemic and the deep recession it caused. The move, which aims to return its cash position at the central bank to more normal levels, will flood the financial system with liquidity and complicate Powell’s effort to keep a tight grip over money market rates.” " ... a drop in short-term market rates into negative territory could prove disruptive, especially for money market funds that invest in short-dated Treasury securities. Banks may also find themselves hamstrung by effectively being forced to hold large unwanted cash balances at the central bank. The Treasury’s decision -- unveiled at its quarterly refunding announcement -- will help unleash what Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Zoltan Pozsar calls a “tsunami” of reserves into the financial system and on to the Fed’s balance sheet. Combined with the Fed’s asset purchases, that could swell reserves to about $5 trillion by the end of June, from an already lofty $3.3 trillion now." "Here’s how it works: Treasury sends out checks drawn on its general account at the Fed, which operates like the government’s checking account. When recipients deposit the funds with their bank, the bank presents the check to the Fed, which debits the Treasury’s account and credits the bank’s Fed account, otherwise known as their reserve balance." So think about this from the perspective of a financial institution, they would have to make the Treasury market holding a product with potentially negative yield - while also forced to buy insurance on the larger reserves they will need to manage. If you are a financial institution are you going to want to offer financing in the overnight market that has negative yield so a company you work with can hold Treasuries? And with the flood of Treasuries & Liquidity this also has muscled up the 5Y yield while the repo market might potentially be going negative. With the 5Y yield up now in Treasuries I am reading how the 10Y yield is comparable now to the SPY Dividend of 1.45% - and keep in mind the reduced risks in holding Treasuries. They are practically as good as gold for a corpo. 10Y Yield 10Y Bond 5Y Yield 5Y Bond So while the Federal Reserve controls the Federal Funds Rate, the Treasury Department can absolutely impact the yield in treasuries, and impact the overnight rate. This hurt risk assets, as the market now needs to price in Treasuries actually offering yields potentially worth getting into. A fascinating exchange exchange with MicroStrategy CEO Saylor talking to Bloomberg discusses thought that even now this yield is a pittance when compared to the cost of capital for companies. It is telling that a company with modest cash flow is saying that rather that investing into their operations further, and rather than giving back to shareholders, or doing share buy backs they are purchasing bitcoin as the yield on bitcoin is stunning relative to Treasuries or holding a basket of FANG stocks. Really interesting interview worth watching: www.youtube.com The key is if other executives will follow the lead of TSLA, SQ, MSTR and add Bitcoin on the balance sheet. While it may seem unconventional, keep in mind if you are a multinational corporation it is perfectly normal to have hundreds of bank accounts, like Disney, Microsoft or Facebook for example because you have vendors all over the world you will need to compensate for their services, in their currencies. Technical Snapshots: If price continues to sell off nice confluence of support with pivot points/fibonacci fan & bollingers at $40k - $40k breaks, we could hit $38k rather rapidly before I imagine buyers will be attracted Bulls will have a tough time breaking $48.5k followed by $50k . Even then, we might form a lower higher, and test support yet another time before continuing to new ATH I remain long, and am nibbling on dips, and enjoying these rips. I plan on adding to the position if we break $40k. My exit strategy will be to bail If we fall under $28k, as at that point I would have 3X'd the initial cost basis of this position. In closing, do not forget, why is the Repo market going negative, and why are 5Y yields rising? Inflation concerns. The formula for inflation is M2*V= inflation. Velocity will increase as the nation opens back up causing inflation, especially as the M2 supply is about to take on another jolt. I suspect this stimulus will pass, and I think Bitcoin is a potential lifeboat when inflation hits. Yes, we need to price in treasuries now - and yes I thought it was bonkers that the market suddenly tanks treasuries to pop yield for inflation and then - the market rotates into the dollar? So inflation is coming and the dollar rises as it did on Friday? I think I would recommend parking some wealth in the bitcoin lifeboat. Perhaps a moonshot, but this macro-narrative warrants it in my opinion. Final Quote coming from Michael Burry last week: "The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket." #ParadigmShift — Cassandra (@michaeljburry) February 20, 2021 Good luck traders! If you enjoy please be sure to hit the like button, and tell me what you think! Hope you all make a million! :) Keep in mind when the gold-bitcoin bears come out saying that it is too volatile, it is worth advising that even with this sell off you can still acquire an ounce of gold for only 0.038 BTC: Or 745 barrels of oil: Source: www.bloomberg.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZenMode
7
VIX to 0?!?In terms of long term allocation, I wouldn't touch equities with a ten-foot pole! That being said, with the amount of currency being created every second, all prices will continue to rise exponentially, and the proximity of financial assets to the source of this inflation (the Federal Reserve) will continue to favor their valuations! Would a uncontrolled rise in treasury yields lead to a sizeable correction in equities and a rising VIX? Absolutely. Is it likely that the Federal Reserve would intervene to an even greater extent than the 2008 and 2019 Global Financial Crises? Absolutely. Therefore, I believe the long term trend of volatility in all prices is much, much lower...
TVC:VIXShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
3
Is it too late to long Bitcoin?Feeling late to the crypto party? Please friends keep in mind that less than 0.5% of the planet are long Bitcoin yet. As I have said, even on the terms of thinking generationally, we are still in the genesis. As Lord Elon Musk himself stated recently, "There is a good chance crypto, is the future currency of earth." My take as has been consistent through this whole bull market, is "nibble on dips and enjoy the rips". My plan for bailing on my massive bitcoin position is when the Fed starts touting raising interest rates. What happened with Bitcoin literally this week? Fed comes out publishing a paper mentioning strengths the DeFi network will bring to consumers research.stlouisfed.org Fed's academic paper literally mentions wrapped Eth -right on their website. Miami FL proposes for local taxes to be paid in Bitcoin, and for employees to have a percentage of wages paid in Bitcoin. nypost.com Nigerian Senate advises that "Bitcoin has made our currency almost useless or valueless"... just shocking Jack Dorsey & Jay Z invest 500 BTC to make Bitcoin "Internet Currency in an endowment to fund development in Africa & India" techcrunch.com BNY Mellon (America's oldest bank) offers institutions access to Bitcoin www.wsj.com JPMorgan co-president and COO Daniel Pinto has said that the banking giant will support bitcoin trading if there is client demand for it. Exciting times friends. And I must advise that if you even view Bitcoin as a moonshot - even moonshots deserve a small bit of exposure within any portfolio aiming at the stars. This is not financial advice, but my personal opinion as I have certainly partake in this mindsight with much more than a small bit of exposure as the bull market clearly unfolded. www.theblockcrypto.com Additional Citation: finance.yahoo.com www.cnbc.com twitter.com
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by ZenMode
11
Make or Break Time!A telling divergence has occurred between the price of action of gold and silver! While gold prices in late-November/early-December formed a lower low, silver prices formed a higher high! It is well understood that silver outperforms gold in precious metals bull markets! Is this divergence therefore indicating that we seen the lows in this period of correction and another move higher is coming? Or is gold indicating that another severe fall in the price of silver is coming? I believe the falling wedge that has been formed in gold's recent price action has been fulfilled and we are about to see a significant move higher in precious metal prices!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
Where will Demand become Supply?Are we looking at a small rally? Or a serious correction upwards? An easing phase by the ECB combined with rising interest rates may trigger some temporary strength in the U.S. dollar! This could spell a correction period for asset prices (or not), but most importantly it could send gold and silver prices on another leg downwards, putting them absolutely on sale! Any dollar-induced dips in commodities, gold and silver especially, should be bought hand over fist!
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
GDP is Collapsing!If you compare GDP to the amount of currency in existence, it has been falling for 2 decades! Remember, M2 is a fraction of the total money supply, therefore GDP has fallen by even more! Ironically, people fail to realize that Money Velocity, what they point to as causing "deflation", is a much better indicator of stagflation! It is likely that the exploding currency supply will begin to leak into goods and services rather than remain within the financial system! This will send GDP higher, which of course all the politicians will point to as proof of the success of their policies, but in reality this will simply means bigger bills for you at the grocery store!
FRED:GDPLong
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
Bank of Canada to Cut Interest Rates Next Week?My readers and followers are up to date on the ongoing currency war. Central banks are attempting to weaken their currencies in order to boost inflation and exports. The export part is self explanatory and well known, but the inflation aspect involves the classical economics definition of inflation. Inflation is the weakening of a currency where it takes more of the weaker currency to buy something which gives the appearance of prices rising. It really is the currency that is weakening. Now the Bank of Canada is set to make its next move in the global currency war. Just a quick recap: central banks have three ways to weaken their currencies: 1.Rhetoric. This is the most common way central bankers weaken or strengthen a currency. Also why the press conferences are closely monitored by traders. Chairmen (and women) use diction and rhetoric as a way of telling market participants what they are planning on doing in the future. The market reacts and prices this in. The currency moves in the way the central bank wanted. 2. Interest Rate Cuts. This is the next step up using interest rate differentials to either strengthen or weaken the currency. 3. Quantitative Easing. The final and most extreme way to weaken the currency using supply and demand principles. Most central banks have exhausted 2 and 3. The European Central Bank is the one I have been following for awhile. The ECB is trying to weaken the Euro as the European Union is a heavy export union. The problem has been the US Dollar, the true winner of the currency war so far. Since the US Dollar is the reserve currency, if the US Dollar is dropping, the other currency is strengthening. This includes the Euro, the Pound, the Loonie, the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, the Yen etc. The ECB increased their emergency asset program up to 1.8 Trillion Euro's in December. The Euro popped. Now all the ECB has left is to cut rates deeper into the negative. Expect this to happen. "Money markets see an increased chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates closer to zero, as tightening economic restrictions to contain a second wave of COVID-19 cases offset optimism that activity will rebound later this year. Interest rates were thought to have hit rock bottom in Canada after they were slashed 150 basis points last March to a record low of 0.25 per cent, a level the Bank of Canada considered the effective lower bound. But in November, Governor Tiff Macklem said a lower floor could allow Canada’s central bank to ease further if the economy weakens." After these statements, the expectations for Canada to cut rates next week has increased. But don't worry, it is not negative rates. Yet. The Bank of Canada is expected to do a microcut, or an interest rate cut less than 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada's rate currently is 0.25%, and expectations are rates to decrease to 0.10%. Microcuts have occurred already. "Other central banks have moved in small increments. In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.1 per cent, while the Bank of England did the same last March." The Bank of England is now expecting to enter negative rates sometime before June of this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be next, and I am sure the Bank of Canada and then eventually the Federal Reserve will follow. All to attempt to weaken the currency, and why I have been saying the trade is out of fiat. Hard assets/commodities and cryptocurrencies are the way to play this going forward. Let's take a look at the USDCAD. The Loonie has been appreciating against the US Dollar as the Dollar (DXY) keeps sliding. You have seen in my previous posts, that I believe the DXY is at a MAJOR support zone and a relief rally is highly probable. Funnily enough, the USDCAD is also at a major support zone, and is looking like the Dollar will strengthen against the Loonie. On my chart, I have drawn a trendline which is a popular way to determine when a trend shift occurs. If price closes above the trendline, the Loonie will depreciate against the US Dollar. However, I am hoping we develop a right shoulder to create a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline being the zone above in blue at the 1.30 zone. This would imply price pops up, and then retraces before breaking and closing above. The interest rate cut could be the catalyst for the reversal pattern. This was expected. This is the currency war.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
I will going to bougth Silver!!! Why?Hello, in that analysis on macrotrend and dedicated more to invest for commodities, specially Silver. We see that monthly timeframe it's so bullish in long term toward to reach up new higher price. So, Silver show us a good opportunity to continue bought Silver contracts in any broker. I use Prime XBT and with Prime XBT you can to multiply your bitcoin and apply this strategy, So, for that reason, I foudn out this analysis very interesting if you want to invest in Silver for bought assets or bought by contract just the increment your capital. But for that reason, Silver it's a metal very important and the use it's money like Gold to protect and store your money value in the hard assets that are autonomous, soberany and solid assets that they'll protect your money agains the inflation. In that case, the U.S. Dollar it's the unique currencies that has been devaluated their value in front of other assets, specially Bitcoin. So guys, I say you again, the U.S. Dollar it's not support for much, this will be weakness as central bank create and print out more money incontrolable, for that you need to wake up in this situation on how the central bank of your country it's be benefited throughout of the ignorance that people don't know it how monetary system work. For that, I bought Silver oz to multiply my Bitcoin quantity in Prime XBT. So, you can to buy Silver becuase in the monthly timeframe we confirm that Silver goes to up. But my own reccomendation it's to put a buy order limit. In my case, I put a buy order limit at $24.40 USD with a SL at $20.70 USD and my own target profit will be the maximum price that are the $50 dollars.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718