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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Silver Trend OutlookSilver technicals and structure has an intact bullish makeup The long-term analysis shows that silver has cleared all major resistance and should follow gold to a new all-time high within the next 6-12 months, possibly much faster. The macro fundamentals are supremely bullish: Negative interest rates and the beginning of a global currency war/easing cycle/competition to devalue. Massive fiscal stimulus is on the horizon in the next 3-5 months, and not just in the US. Rest of the world is starting to catchup. The long-term global trend towards electric, clean, and renewable energy and the sheer amount of investment required to change our energy infrastructure will require that silver goes parabolic, along with many other commodities. There's not a lot of silver in the world. New production takes time, cannot happen overnight. A Biden win / blue wave will mean marginally more open global trade, which is bullish commodities. It will also mean something like a green new deal, infrastructure spending, and stimulus that could cause the US economy to overdose. FX_IDC:XAGUSD TVC:SILVER
TVC:SILVERLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
SILVER REMAINS KING! HYPERINFLATION!SILVER IS AND WILL BE THE BEST PERFORMING ASSET OF THE 2020s! PRECIOUS METALS HAVE SHARPLY INCREASED IN PRICE DUE TO RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS! OIL REMAINS CHEAP BECAUSE OF BROKEN AND DYING GLOBAL TRADE! OTHER COMMODITY PRICES ARE INCREASING AS SUPPLY CHAINS COME UNDER PRESSURE AND DEMAND IS FUELED BY CREDIT EXPANSION AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS! CORPORATE BOND PRICES ARE BEING JAWBONED HIGHER BY CENTRAL BANK OFFICIALS AND THEIR OFF-THE-BALANCE SHEET MANIPULATION! REAL ESTATE BOND PRICES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER AS URBAN AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS HAVE ESSENTIALLY IMPLODED BUT CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION IN CREDIT MARKETS HAS PREVENTED A COMPLETE CREDIT FREEZE AND SELL-OFF...FOR NOW! GOVERNMENT BOND PRICES REMAIN ELEVATED AS UNCERTAINTY AND ILLIQUIDITY HAVE PUSHED CAPITAL INTO DEFENSIVE ASSETS AND CENTRAL BANKS HAVE MONETIZED DEFICITS AT AN UNPRECEDENTED PACE, BUT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, ESPECIALLY FROM ABROAD, HAVE PREVENTED A FURTHER FALL IN YIELDS! MEANWHILE, EQUITIES HAVE BEEN BID HIGHER THROUGH CURRENCY DARK POOLS AND FEDERAL EXPENDITURE! THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS ENTERED THE GREATER DEPRESSION, AS MANY EXPERTS PREDICTED WOULD HAPPEN FOR YEARS! HOW THE NEXT DECADE PLAYS OUT WILL BE THE DEFINING EVENT OF OUR LIFETIMES! HYPERINFLATION IS NOT ONLY POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY!
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Pumped for the big Bitcoin Pump - BTC Adoption and thoughtsBitcoin is 11 years old and is already changing the world of finance. I see Bitcoin reaching it's previous All Time High by March/April of 2021. If it happens sooner or later, that's fine. I'm confident this is only the beginning for Bitcoin. In July 2020, we finally broke out of that nasty bear trend going back to the high from December 2017. We retested that trend in August again (which is a healthy move), but have since moved and stayed above it. That was painful and took soooo long! Let's please just skip that dreadful time of life next time around. Bullish feels so good! Go ahead and take a moment to appreciate those who have been able to hold on for these last few years of the journey. There's a chance we stay in a long term equilibrium pattern on the monthly, but we are close to breaking a big resistance of $13,868 and if we do, then the all time high of $19,891 is in sights. After that, it's time to buckle up. With all the positive news and infrastructure growth in this space, things are looking bright. Yes, I expect some big drops along the way, in particular after we break the all time high, but long term, things are looking positive. Adoption!!! We will continue to see companies and other institutions pouring money into Bitcoin. In the grand scheme of things, it is a gradual inflow right now, but this trend will continue to gain momentum. There is quite a bit of recent news on this matter: - Grayscale is currently purchasing 77% worth of all the newly mined Bitcoin supply, an amount that has increased every quarter this year. I can't wait for a few more halvings. Remind me again what happens to Bitcoin price when the supply gets cut in half, and then half again, and literally 1 company is buying more than is being create. The word UP is coming to my mind for some reason. - Companies like MicroStrategy ($425 Million) and Square ($50 Million) are choosing to hold Bitcoin as an asset over holding cash. Every few days now we are hearing about more companies choosing this path. - Paypal is bringing Bitcoin exposure to it's 350 Million customers world wide to be able to Buy/Sell/Hold and make purchases with Bitcoin. Regardless how many new customers this may bring in (hopefully the fees will be lowered once there is more competition) the effect of incorporating bitcoin into PayPal's wallet is pretty major. - Central Banks are taking a serious look into Central Bank Digital Currencies. 1 out of 5 central banks have said they plan to incorporate digital currencies within 1-3 years. I don't imagine the United States has a lot of incentive to move forward quickly with this, given the Dollar being the dominant world currency, but it's going to happen eventually. - Banks have been given permission by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to begin holding digital currencies. I imagine this is to allow for the digital dollar once this becomes the norm, but it also allows them to hold Bitcoin. Do you remember when banks like JPMorgan called Bitcoin a fraud just 3 years ago but now are predicting a $30,000 price for Bitcoin. Hey, even banks know that their direct competition is going to make them money. Speaking of money, who wants some Stimulus Money!?! I believe the answer to that should be anyone who wants to see another surge in the Bitcoin price. How many of you in the Crypto space added to your portfolio after receiving your stimulus check, or maybe even as soon as you heard that you were going to receive the stimulus check in the coming weeks. How much more did you make by choosing to invest some portion of it in Bitcoin versus holding it in those 0.01% super charged savings accounts we're all so excited about ;) Well, most believe a second stimulus check is likely to happen again at some point. Get ready for it! Supply and Demand, and also Inflation: My cash seems to be confused. It is going in the wrong direction! Remember the good old days. The average house used to cost $3,200. A loaf of bread cost 7 cents. Movie tickets were 10-15 cents. Clearly I wasn't alive back then, but I've heard that's how things used to be. Inflation is nasty and it's not stopping. I mean, it's cool and all that money can be magically printed out of thin air, but except for the stimulus checks, that's not going to help any of us. Printer goes brrrrr! Bitcoin has a cap of 21 Million coins. It's a simple statement, but the implications of this are why I chose Bitcoin. Every time someone buys bitcoin and chooses to hold it, guess what... sorry Charlie, it's no longer available for you to buy. You have to find some other foolish person who is willing to sell you their Bitcoin. I understand people trade the trends, and I'm all for that, this is TradingView after-all, but long term I want to be holding my Bitcoin, not getting rid of it. The inflation rate of Bitcoin is now approximately down to 1.8% and will become significantly better with each halving. Fun Fact. There are approximately 46.8 million millionaires. Only half of them would ever be able to own a single Bitcoin. Also, several million bitcoin are supposedly lost forever, and some individuals and companies are already holding multiple percentages of the bitcoin supply. I will again reemphasize there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin. Thanks for checking out some of my thoughts. I'm super excited about Bitcoin and hope there will be many more to join this community soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by zwickster
AUD bulls support threatened AUD/USD extends its four-day losing streak into Tuesday, looking to threaten the September low of 0.7006 while wallowing in three-week lows near 0.7032. AUD futures net positions dropped from 8.9k to 3.8k as 10k+ short positions were opened. Growth in China is slower than expected hence Australian exports to the Asian country could be affected. This coupled with the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries threatens the strength of the AUDUSD. The expectations of a November rate cut and or bond-buying expansion emboldened after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Deputy Governor Dr. Chris Kent and October meeting minutes suggested that additional easing is due on the cards. Further pressurizing the downside in the spot, the US dollar holds onto the overnight bounce, as hopes of a potential US fiscal stimulus deal pre-election fade despite the narrowing differences between the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. DXY net positions in the CFTC COT Weekly report turned positive last week hence we could expect a bullish dollar in the medium term, well at least until the US elections are over. Equity markets are currently on a risk on mode after erasing gains made earlier on Monday. Further concerns about the pandemic globally will keep pressure on the safe haven as more countries start to consider placing strict lockdown measures.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Weekly Review: Clueless Territory (Read for Fundamentals)Will have a week similar to the last one, irregular. We had a decent run in the last couple weeks, and now the market is starting to feel a bit clueless, why? - American elections are approaching - Disappointing news about vaccines development - Bad Brexit negotiations - Worse control of the virus than expected However, the underlying sentiment of the market is bullish. - 2021 & 2022 will be years of +20% earnings growth and this will guide the markets This week: - Technology earnings results (which will be decent and sustain the markets) - Stimulus package talks will advance Markets will move laterally keeping an eye on both earnings and stimulus package while waiting for the outcome of the elections, if anything they will end slightly up this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Regaining Momentum (Read for Fundamentals)Current situation in the markets is being better than I expected. - It may lose some momentum with the time. Markets are starting to price in a stimulus agreement in the US. - Which, honestly, is still far away to happen Relationship virus – markets is starting to stabilise In the short term, what really matters now is the stimulus agreement followed by the US elections. From Tuesday, we´ll get some macro news. American macro is outpacing the rest of countries, Europe is not doing too badly and the UK is lagging behind. I believe this week will not be as bullish as the last one and with the US elections, approaching the markets will start to flatten and be more cautious.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PepeMafia
ON THE VERGE OF BANKRUPTCY!FRANCE HAS THE HIGHEST DEBT LEVELS ON EARTH! ITALY HAS ARGUABLY THE SLOWEST GROWTH ON EARTH ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS! THEIR LARGEST BANKS REFLECT THIS! BOTH ARE APPROACHING THE KEY 5$ LIQUIDATION PRICE! OF COURSE, IT IS FAR FROM RIDICULOUS TO SUGGEST THESE BANKS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO FAIL, AS THEY POSE SYSTEMIC RISK TO THE ENTIRE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM! IN FACT, THE ACTIONS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK DURING 2020, ALL UNDER THE GUISE OF "PANDEMIC RELIEF", WERE MOST LIKELY AIMED AT SUPPORTING THESE FAILING ENTITIES BY ALLOWING THEM TO OFFLOAD THEIR GARBAGE ASSETS! THE REPO MARKET TROUBLES SEEN IN SEPTEMBER WERE LIKELY TIED TO A NUMBER OF BANKS, THESE 2 INCLUDED, FAILING TO RECEIVE OVERNIGHT LIQUIDITY DUE TO THE AWFUL QUALITY OF THEIR POSTED COLLATERAL! THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT OCCURRED IN JAPAN, THE CENTRAL BANK SUPPORTED FINANCIAL ENTITIES WITH ZERO CHANCE OF EVERY BEING PROFITABLE, CREATING THE INFAMOUS "ZOMBIE COMPANIES"! THEY CONTINUED TO OPERATE, BUT THEIR SHARE PRICES NEVER RECOVERED AS THEY ESSENTIALLY HAD NO PROFITS TO PAY OUT! DO NOT BUY STOCK FROM SMART MONEY THAT SEES THE RISK AND IS EITHER SHORT SELLING OR JUMPING SHIP!
EURONEXT:GLE
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
2
HYPERINFLATION UPDATE!TURKEY'S CURRENCY IS UNDERGOING A CLASSIC PROCESS OF DESTRUCTION! CONTINUAL FISCAL DEFICITS AND BANK CREDIT EXPANSION (FUELED BY ARTIFICIALLY SUPPRESSED GLOBAL INTEREST RATES) HAVE PROVIDED AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF CURRENCY, WHILE WAR, CORRUPTION, A GLOBAL DEPRESSION AND MANY DOMESTIC/INTERNATIONAL FACTORS HAVE LEAD TO DIMINISHING DEMAND FOR THE TURKISH LIRA! AS LIRAS ARE SOLD FOR ASSETS AND OTHER CURRENCIES (I.E. AS DEMAND FOR THE LIRA FALLS), MONEY VELOCITY INCREASES, LEADING TO RISING PRICES AND AN EROSION OF THE LIRA'S PURCHASING POWER! WITHIN A FEW YEARS, ONCE THE LIRA HAS BEEN COMPLETELY HYPER-INFLATED AND TURKEY HAS SUFFERED A COMPLETE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE THE LIKES OF VENEZUELA AND LEBANON RECENTLY, YOU WILL HEAR FROM KEYNESIANS AND OTHER PSEUDO-EXPERTS THAT SOME ARBITRARY FACTOR WAS FUNDAMENTALLY RESPONSIBLE! DO NOT BE FOOLED, THE CAUSE OF ANY FALLING EXCHANGE RATE IS INFLATION, AN INCREASING SUPPLY OF CURRENCY! THE NEXT STEP IN THIS PROCESS OF CURRENCY DESTRUCTION IS ACCELERATING CONSUMER GOODS PRICE INFLATION! THESE NUMBERS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE DISTORTED BY THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT AND WILL THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT TO TRULY MEASURE! THE TURKISH STOCK MARKET WILL SEE EXTREME VOLATILITY AND AN WOULD BE A GOOD PLAY IF IT EXISTED! PRAY FOR THE PEOPLE OF TURKEY! PRAY FOR AN END TO GLOBAL FASCISM!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
UNDERSTAND MACRO-FINANCE!WHILE ALL PRICES HAVE RISEN SINCE 1913 (THE CREATION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE), SOME HAVE DONE SO MORE THAN OTHERS! THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO LARGE AND COMPLEX THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACE THE ACTUAL SIZE OF THE ENTIRE MONEY SUPPLY ( M3 )! WHEN IT COMES TO ESTIMATION, YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS ANY EXPERT'S! THE ONLY WAY TO DETERMINE IF M3 IS RISING OR FALLING IS BY LOOKING AT THE PRICE OF OIL , THE PRICE OF THE 1-MONTH TREASURY BILL AND THE YIELD CURVE, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THERE WAS A DEFLATIONARY PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF 2020! STOCKS, WHICH ARE THE MOST FINANCIALIZED ASSET CLASS, HAVE SEEN THE GREATEST INCREASE IN PRICE, BECAUSE MUCH OF THE CREDIT THAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM CREATES BIDS UP THEIR PRICE BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE! COPPER AND OIL , THE PRICES OF WHICH ARE MUCH MORE IMPACTED BY SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS WITHIN THE REAL ECONOMY, HAVE BARELY MOVED IN COMPARISON AND REFLECT THE LACK OF REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE PAST HALF CENTURY! GOLD , FOR ANYONE WHO CONSIDERS ITS PRICE EVEN REMOTELY ELEVATED, HAS BARELY EVEN KEPT UP WITH THE INCREASE IN M2 (WHICH INCLUDES PHYSICAL CURRENCY, CHEQUING ACCOUNTS AND SOME SAVINGS ACCOUNTS). THROUGHOUT HISTORY, THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF GOLD HAS ALWAYS EVENTUALLY MATCHED THE TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY, AND THEREFORE THE PRICE OF GOLD MUST INCREASE BY SEVERAL TIMES EVEN FROM HERE TO BE VALUED CORRECTLY!
TVC:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243