Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas
THREE BLACK CROWS!RETAIL TRADERS WERE ALL FOOLED BY THE BOGUS DOLLAR MILKSHAKE THEORY AND WERE PUNISHED FOR THEIR HERD MENTALITY!
CAPITAL IS FLOWING OUT OF U.S. DOLLARS AND INTO OTHER CURRENCIES AND PRECIOUS METALS!
THOSE WITH AN UNDERSTANDING OF AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS HAVE SEEN THE WRITING ON THE WALL, THE DOLLAR IS FAR FROM THE CLEANEST DIRTY SHIRT IN THE HAMPER OR A SAFE HAVEN, IT IS RADIOACTIVE!
STOP LISTENING TO SHILLS WHO ARE DOING THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY TELL YOU AND GO STUDY FOR YOURSELF!
US dollar - US Treasuries Divergence The US dollar correlates positively to US Treasuries.
Market participants needs US dollar when buying US Treasuries as investments or as collateral.
Now we see a pretty sharp diverence and break of that correlation.
One would anticiapte a return to mean of this relationship.
My base-case is that the dollar will follow bonds and get bid up.
In short, my reasoning is as follows:
If liquidity continues to be tight, as low interest rates and central banks going crazy are signaling, the dollar will catch a bid as it's still the world reserve currency.
Regardless of my bias: when macro correlations diverge, its time to pay attention.
The best long-term indicatorOne of the main economic indicators for currency valuation is the real interest rate differential between the two countries / currencies.
The large flows of fixed income always go to where there is the highest real yield, interest rate discounted from inflation. The carry trade.
It is possible to see in the USDCAD example on the graph the great correlation between the interest rate differential and the appreciation / depreciation of each currency.
Currently, this indicator does not seem to make much sense due to extremely low inflation and low interest rates in the worldwide. However, the big draw is to know where the economic recovery will be faster, will create more jobs and income, will lead to an increase in inflation and consequently to an increase in interest rates and currency appreciation.
Make your bets!
I would bet on Australia and Europe, maybe that's why the dollar is so weak.
GOLD/SILVER RATIO - What does this mean? SILVER THE NEW GOLD?!It simply means silver is better to buy performance wise than gold.
Question is Silver could be the new gold?
How & Why?
Silver is seen as a better reflationary asset a hedge given from industrial and tech applications
Most of half the silver material is used in tech electronics such as connections, wires and jewellery
Silver is out performing gold
Large institutions think we could get price of 25-30 for silver in the long run.
I'd wait for pull back in most of the commodities.
Just an idea, not a recommendation.
Is the relationship between the yield curve and SP500 dead?Looking at the TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY and the AMEX:SPY it seems that during a recession like this TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY should rise and AMEX:SPY should fall.
Will it be the case this time as well or is this time different?
Maybe the FED cannot allow TVC:US10Y to rise this time due to the amount of debt and will instead impose yield curve control like in Japan by printing money to buy TVC:US10 ?
HYPERINFLATION!PRIVATE INVESTORS DON'T WANT BONDS, CENTRAL BANKERS DON'T WANT INTEREST RATES TO RISE!
DISCONNECTION FROM REALITY!HOW CAN SILVER BE LOWER FROM GOLD'S PEAK THAN BOTH OF ITS SPECULATIVE MINING VEHICLES, SIL AND SILJ?
THIS IS A MASSIVELY BULLISH SIGNAL!
WAIT FOR BLOOD IN THE STREETS!WOULD YOU BUY CRYPTO AT THIS POINT IN TIME?
CONSIDER THE MACROECONOMIC CLIMATE, BITCOIN'S FUNDAMENTALS, THE PERFORMANCE OF CRYPTO TRUSTS!
A FRIEND RECENTLY INVESTED HIS LIFE SAVINGS, SAYING "THERE IS FUTURE POTENTIAL TO CRYPTO THAT PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE"!
WHAT POTENTIAL WOULD HE, A RETAIL INVESTOR, BE AWARE OF THAT THE MARKET IS NOT CURRENTLY PRICING IN?
WHEN HE SELLS, I WILL BE BUYING!
BULLISH COPPER?FOR COPPER TO TRULY RISE, IT MUST BREAK THE 2.886 RESISTANCE LEVEL!
IF NOT, THIS IS SIMPLY ANOTHER LOWER HIGH!
WHO DO YOU BANK WITH?NOT THAT IT MATTERS, THE BANK OF CANADA WILL DESTROY YOUR SAVINGS BEFORE IT LETS ANY OF THESE FUCKERS GO DOWN!
BUT...IF YOU HAVE ACCOUNTS WITH BMO, I WOULD HEAD FOR THE EXIT JUST TO BE SAFE!
SILVER HAS NEVER BEEN THIS CHEAP!RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL CURRENCY IN EXISTENCE, SILVER HAS NEVER BEEN THIS CHEAP!
