$EUIRYY -EU YoY (CPI) source: EUROSTAT
The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023,
reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% .
Meanwhile,
The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices,
also cooled to 4.2% in October;
marking its lowest point since July 2022.
However, both rates remained above the European Central Bank's target of 2%.
The energy cost tumbled by 11.1% (compared to -4.6% in September), and the rates of inflation eased for both food, alcohol, and tobacco (7.5% compared to 8.8%) and non-energy industrial goods (3.5% compared to 4.1%).
Services inflation remained relatively stable at 4.6%, compared to 4.7% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1% in October, after a 0.3% gain in September.
Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 28, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has declined to our predetermined Mean Support and Next Inner Coin Dip levels of 60700 and 66500, respectively. We anticipate a rebound from this point, aiming to reach the Mean Resistance at 62500 and Inner Coin Rally level at 63300, with potential for further upward movement. Conversely, our downside targets encompass revisiting the completed Inner Coin Dip at 59000 and the completed Outer Coin Dip at 57000.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 21, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin hit our Inner Coin Dip of 64500 on the money and dipped to a lower target marked as Inner Coin Dip 63100. We anticipate a robust upward bounce from this point to reach the mean resistance level of 66500.
AUD/USD Upside Favored by Monetary Policy DeferentialAUD/USD upside bias is supported by the monetary policy differential and the technicals. The Australian central bank stayed on the sidelines on Tuesday, but once again considered the case for a hike and does not shut the door to such action. The US Fed on the other hand has already pointed to lower rates and markets expect two cuts within the year.
The Aussie benefited from RBA’s hawkish hold and after defending again the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up, it returned above the EMA200 (black line). This reaffirms the bullish tilt and strengthens prospects of new higher highs (0.6714), but does not inspire confidence for tackling 0.6839.
On the other hand, AUD/USD has faltered above 0.6700 multiple times, creating scope for a pullback and a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This would bring 0.6465 in the spotlight, but strong catalyst would be needed for testing it. Markets may be optimistic about two Fed cuts, but officials see just one and their reluctance to pivot supports the greenback. The RBA keeps the door open to a hike, but there is a high bar for such action, while deteriorating economy could increase pressure for easier stance.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June14, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin consistently reached our defined Mean Support of 67500, as outlined in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of June 7. Additionally, it surpassed this level, touching our Mean Support 65000. Upon completing the Inner Coin Dip 64500 and validating the end of the down movement, we anticipate a renewed Bull Stage trend, initially targeting the designated Mean Resistance.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 7, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has completed our designated Intermediary Squeeze Rebound 71500 and is on its way to continue the downward movement to a Mean Sup 67500, where we are expecting a Bull Stage movement to take place to retest the Mean Res 71500 and Key Res 73200, respectively.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 31, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin gyrated in this week's trading between our major Mean Sup 67100 and the newly created Mean Res 69400. The upward movement target shows a continuous target of Bull Stage Squzee Rebound 73200, marked as Key Res 73200. The main obstacles are Mean Res 69400 and 71500, respectively. On the downside, we look at the established Mean Support at 65000 as a concrete target before a renewed upswing occurs.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has broken through our Mean Resistance at 66900, completed our Inner Coin Rally at 69800, and then pulled back to the trading zone. The target for an upward movement is now set at the newly established Mean Resistance at 71500 and the aged Key Resistance at 73200. On the downside, we are looking at the newly established Mean Support at 67100 and a possible extension to Mean Support at 65000.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 17, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin surged in this week's trading session as projected. The coin slammed through Mean Res 64000 and rests comfortably at Mean Res 66900 as of this writing. An intermediate pullback is anticipated, expected to pave the way for a renewed Bull Stage movement, with targets set on the Inner Coin Rally 69800, Key Resistance 73200, and beyond.
EURUSD Higher after US CPI but Policy Dynamics to WeighWednesday’s US CPI report showed a moderation in price pressures in April, following months of persistence, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% y/y and core to 3.6% y/y. Along with the miss in retail sales, markets strengthened their pricing for two rate cuts this year by the Fed, staring in September.
The greenback fell as a result, sending EURUSD to the highest levels in nearly a month. this bring the March peak in the spotlight (1.0981), but we are cautious around the ascending prospects.
US Inflation remains far from the 2% target, which along with strong economy and robust labor market have raised the bar for a Fed to pivot, leading policymakers to higher-for-longer narrative. Their European peers have made more progress on moderating price pressures and the economy struggles. As a result, the ECB looks more ready to lower rates, having hinted at a June pivot.
The monetary policy differentially is likely to cap the upside and put pressure on EURUSD. Along with overbought RSI, there is scope for a retreat towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would shift bias to the downside and make the common currency vulnerable to the 2024 lows (1.0600).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 10, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has consistently respected our Mean Res 64000 in this week's trading with the projected Intermediary Squeeze Retest target to Key Sup 58300 and completed Inner Coin Dip 57200, which is in progress. This is expected to lead to a renewed Bull Stage movement, targeting the Mean Res of 64000, 66900, and beyond once again.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 3, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has completed our Inner Coin Dip 57200 and rebounded strongly with renewed strength. Currently, the main barrier to further upside move is marked at 64000. It is expected to experience a pullback to retest a Key Sup 58300, which will lead to renewed a Bull Stage movement targeting the Mean Res of 64000, 66900, and beyond.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin's trading this week has been volatile, fluctuating around our Mean Resistance level of 65600. Our Key Support level of 61300 will likely soon be retested once again, which could serve as a launching pad for a new Bull Stage rally. The target for this rally would be the newly established Mean Resistance level of 66900 and beyond.
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Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, Bitcoin reached the Key Support 61300 level and rebounded to the inverted resistance level derived from Mean Support 65600. This movement is part of positioning Bitcoin for the upcoming "halving" event, which is expected to happen around April 20. However, a market decline could cause Bitcoin to fall to an Inner Coin Dip 57200 level.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
This week's trading session Bitcoin completed the forthcoming Inner Coin Rally 72500, and as expected, the coin retraced to our designated Mean Sup 65600. Bitcoin is in the process of rebounding back to the 72500 scene of crime. On the downside, the market potential decline may occur, resulting in Bitcoin falling to Key Sup 61300 and an Inner Coin Dip 57200. The bull stage movement will arise from current price action or Key Sup 61300 and an Inner Coin Dip 57200, respectively.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's price action, Bitcoin rapidly moved towards a Mean Support level of 66700 and, in the process, established a new Mean Support level of 65600. This new level is being used as a base to ignite the bullish trend further. Currently, the market is experiencing consolidation, with the expectation of moving toward reaching the Key Resistance level of 73200 and beyond. However, a potential decline may occur, resulting in Bitcoin falling to the Mean Support level of 65600.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has achieved a decisive breach of its weak Mean Resistance level 68400, and is now eying the completed Inner Coin Rally 72500 and significant Key Resistance level 73200. The market anticipates that attaining these levels will set in motion a major bull run, with the primary target being the Inner Coin Rally 78200 first. However, it is essential to note that a potential takedown may occur, which could result in a decline to 66700.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has dropped significantly from a Mean Sup of 65900 to a Mean Sup of 61300, where it is currently gyrating. The upcoming retest of the Mean Sup of 68400 will be crucial for continuing the bull run. However, before the bull run takes place, the coin might retest Mean Sup 61300 and, in the process, complete Outer Coin Dip 57200.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has reached our target, the Inner Coin Rally 72500. It has since dropped significantly and is now hovering around the newly established Mean Sup of 65900. The upcoming retest of the Mean Sup of 65900 will serve as a crucial point for continuing the ongoing bull run, which aims to achieve two more targets: the Inner Coin Rally 78200 and the Outer Coin Rally 81400.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin's price has risen this week, surpassing Major Key Resistance 67530 and the all-time high of 69000. Its ongoing targets are the Inner Coin Rally 72500, the Next Inner Coin Rally 78200, and the Outer Coin Rally 81400. A slight dip to the Mean Sup at the 63800 price is expected before the next rally. Despite the increasing acceptance and rise in investor interest, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin remains subject to volatility and market fluctuations. As such, it is imperative to maintain rigorous vigilance over its price movements and market trends to make informed investment decisions.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin's price action saw a remarkable surge in the current week, which should not come as a surprise to this audience. After breaking through the completed Outer Coin Rally at 53000, Bitcoin's legit targets were 55000 and 59829, as this would. Bitcoin is setting itself up for the next launch, the Inner Coin Rally at 69000 and the Outer Coin Rally at 81400, which is expected to break records and disappoint those who have dismissed cryptocurrencies.
However, a pullback to the Mean Sup at the 60400 price is a transient dip before the next rally. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains promising as it continues to attract more investors and gain wider acceptance. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price movements and market trends.