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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Powell breaks taboo & opens a Pandora's boxThis week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was speaking to Congress. He the things that may modify the state of the foreign exchange market. It is not about the Fed rates and the monetary policy vector, but about problems that have been trying not to talk about, because attracting attention to them is a very risky idea. We are talking about the so-called “three Ds” which are major US problems and precisely because of which it can collapse into the abyss. They are Government Debt, Budget Deficit, Trade Balance Deficit. In our reviews, we have already mentioned that more than once. The markets preferred to remain silent about “three Ds” existence since this is a time bomb for the US economy It's only a matter of time before it detonates. The US debt exceeds GDP and reached $ 24 trillion, the budget deficit is about a trillion dollars a year, the negative balance of export surplus on an annualized basis has exceeded $ 0.5 trillion. These figures also tend to deteriorate, since the construction of the pyramid of public debt in such conditions is inevitable and sooner or later it will collapse. Sum up, the dollar and the US economy will be under ruins. Therefore the markets are trying not to think about it. However, this week, Powell upset the stability and attracted the attention of markets to the problems of public debt and budget deficits, noting that without their fundamental decision, the US won't help any Fed action. The current rate leaves very little chance for the action of the Central Bank in the event of a crisis. Powell admitted that this time the Fed is unlikely to be able to pull the United States out of depression, as it was in 2007-2009. Focusing on the “three Ds” is a very bad signal for the dollar. If the markets turn their attention to these problems, the dollar may begin a very protracted decline, the bottom of which is simply not visible from the current height. So, our position to sell the dollar has only received additional argumentation. It is worth noting the positive statistics on German GDP. Positive because the country escaped the recession and was able to demonstrate even minimal, but still GDP growth (0.1% with the forecast of -0.1%). The eurozone as a whole also showed GDP growth (0.2% with the forecast of 0.1%). In this light, the current price of the euro seems quite attractive for us to purchase it. The variation of the hundred points is permissible. Remember set up small stops. The pound ignored weak macroeconomic statistics (retail sales appeared worse than expected in the negative zone). Which once again confirms our recommendation to buy a pound at the earliest opportunity. The only threat to the pound is Brexit. But from this side, problems should not be expected until the election results are announced. So we continue to look for points to buy the pound. China showed weak data. Which again renewed the purchase of safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, buying gold or the Japanese yen you should be careful, since any positive news regarding the negotiations between the US and China may stimulate local sales in safe-haven assets.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Trump attacks Fed, UBS expects pound to riseUnfortunate week for oil buyers. Following the news about a possible increase in supply and weak demand growth in the future, as well as Morgan Stanley's forecasts about a 25-30% reduction in market prices. Another disappointing news. The agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO), published that oil demand peaks within the next 10 years. Recall that this week Saudi Aramco gave the oil market 20 years. According to IEA analysts, the current growth in oil demand will last for 5 years maximum, and then we will see a significant slowdown. We are talking about long-term forecasts, so now oil may well ignore these estimates. But in general, the future of the oil market looks rather unsightly. As for yesterday’s oil growth, it was largely due to verbal interventions by the OPEC Secretary-General, who tried to smooth out the effect of the above-mentioned news. In particular, he said that in 2020 growth in oil demand could beat forecasts, oil supply from non-OPEC producers could decline sharply soon. Despite the growth of oil yesterday, taking into account current prices in the market, we continue to recommend selling the asset. Also, despite the strengthening over the last couple of weeks, we recommend selling the dollar. The further fate of the Fed rates is still in limbo, but the further decline will be a strong hit to the dollar. In this light, Trump's next attack on the Fed was quite remarkable. The US President accused the Central Bank and Powell of slowing down the economic development in the States. The Fed, unlike other leading central banks, did not want to divert rates into the negative zone, which harmed the US economy. Such information at a time of the impeachment procedure, Trump gives reasons for the sale of the dollar. Moreover, you can sell it against euro, pound or Japanese yen. Also, the Canadian dollar in the region of 1.33 seems to be a good candidate for buying USDCAD (we are talking about the sales of this pair). The British pound is another excellent candidate for purchases against the dollar. We have already noted that in conditions of an almost complete absence of risks of a “no-deal” exit, the current prices for the pound seem to us underestimated by at least 500-1000 points. According to the updated forecasts from UBS, our estimates are still very conservative. Since bank analysts see the pound paired with the dollar in the region of 1.54 over the next three years. Since we are interested in the time horizon in months, not years, the achievement of 1.40 with GBPUSD will completely satisfy us. Returning to the situation with the dollar, we note that yesterday's data on consumer inflation in the US as turned out to be rather neutral and did not change the existing situation in the foreign exchange market. Today we are waiting for GDP data in the Eurozone and Germany, as well as for retail sales in the UK. Besides, the attention of the markets will be riveted to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the US Congress.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Unrealized potential and plans for the futureJapan, Canada and the USA central banks' decisions, U.S. and Eurozone GDP latest statistics, as well as data on the US labour market 7 days latest news. In principle, each event from this list would be enough to fill the average week. As for the political aspect: a signal about possible problems in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the next parliamentary elections in the UK and ongoing impeachment process against Trump. The absence of significant movements in the foreign exchange market last week surprised us. The change of more than 100 points +/- was observed in most pairs. However, we consider this rather as an opportunity for trading, since unrealized potential has accumulated in prices. Accordingly, we plan to take up its implementation in the current week. Perhaps the greatest potential has accumulated in the US dollar. The Fed rate cut (the third in 2019) was unnoticed by the markets. Statistics on the US, which came out last week, although was better than forecasts (GDP and NFP), still made it clear that the general state of the US economy is deteriorating. The USA non-farm payroll (NFP) for instance. + 128K was 50% higher than analysts' forecasts, who expected growth at 85K. It would seem that the dollar should have just soared based on such data. But on the other hand, + 128K is 20-30% worse than the average value for the last couple of years. Also, the ISM index in the US manufacturing sector in October, published on Friday, was 48.3 points only (a value below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity). In our opinion, the dollar fell following the results of the week should have been much stronger. And since it did not happen last week, it will happen on this one. Therefore, we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. The Canadian dollar is a nice candidate for that. The Bank of Canada left the rate unchanged, that is, the percentage differential between the US dollars and Canada declined. The main Canadian dollar issue was news that the Chinese do not believe in the possibility of a long-term trade deal with the United States, while Trump stays in power. That is concerns about the ongoing trade war. Accordingly, commodity currencies were under pressure. But the value of the safe-haven assets grew: gold and the Japanese yen. We recommended buying them last week and will continue to do so in the current week. Note that under the current conditions, the formation of a trading portfolio, that is, when buying a Canadian dollar, it is advisable to have yen and gold in the list of positions. On Friday The Russian ruble paired with the dollar strengthened quite well and as a result, even closed below 63.50. Formally, it opens the way to further decline to 62.50 area. Despite this, we continue to recommend the USDRUB purchases. Everything goes according to the plan announced by us earlier: the first time of purchases from 63.60, the second one we start at about 62.60. So if someone has not bought a pair, you can do it now purchase at 63.60, and who is already in position should wait for an attempt to hit the 62.50.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Happy anniversary Bitcoin.From a 1989 article in the The Wall Street Journal, by Victor Niederhoffer, speculator: Speculators don't only create bubbles (not sure short term speculators make bubbles happen, they might actually smooth them). The Federal Reserve was created by a US president to separate the money supply from the government. But they ended up being control freaks very destructive. I'll make another idea more detailed on that, in particular on the Bretton Woods system. Satoshi in his white paper, published 11 years ago, said: And 6 months later he said: "The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust." I do not know a single Fiat currency outside of the British Pound that stood the test of time. And just 4 months after this, Bernanke told US politicians "The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt". Because it was temporary apparently. Today the FED has pumped the stock market to a point where the rich are so rich and the poor so poor than 1/3 of US citizen get in debt just to eat (corporate buybacks did not help). Europe is not better. Some countries even have negative interest rates and they are looking into "deep negative" rates, like -10% a year. The IMF has a guide on Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions www.imf.org The central banks are debasing currencies. And it's actually hurting the 90%. They keep pushing this pyramid scheme up. The problem is, a peer to peer system can't even fight those low IQ central authorities, because they are just going to ban it. They're going to have to end up in jail. The UK drifted to the right, the US drifted right, but also left, actually very far left it's scary. Those central morons that think they are helping (are they really that stupid? It has to be intentional) won't stop, and won't let people save cash, buy gold. So maybe citizen voting far left or right is necessary. But do those politicians understand they have to get rid of the central banks (or reduce their powers)? All I hear is "white man bad, rich people evil, let's stop progress" it's like none of them has a clue what the real issues are. Bitcoin reached a point where it went into a mania attracting alot of gullible unskilled speculators excited by stories of "Bitcoin millionaires". The tech reached its saturation point, it can't scale further, and there is very low interest in using it as a viable currency. I hope it will remain in history as a great prototype and not just a speculative bubble that cause "innocent people" to lose their shirts. Bitcoin ended up being a ponzi/pyramid scheme, with early adopters making a huge amount of money on the back of late adopters. But anyway, it possibly opened the way. Central banks have done so much harm. Over and over. Just like governments trying to prevent traders from trading or forcing prices. Take the example of oil demand being high on the east coast because it's terribly cold, and demand is very low on the west coast. When the government forces a price, traders have no incentive to buy cheap on the west and sell high on the east (as price is not moving even with supply and demand varying). And so on the west coast they warm their swimming pools they don't use, while on the east there is not enough Oil for everyone and people are cold. I could list so many examples. Over and over same story. Perhaps we could evolve into having currencies that are not completely controlled by some central authority. The gullible victims that are dreaming of lambos would really love to see their favorite ponzi scheme be bought by everyone (greater fools). But I have a better solution: The free market. Let's let currencies not be controlled in such a way, or very minimally, let's let the stock market not be controlled, and let them fluctuate naturally as they should. Ultimately it does not even matter what currency we use, it's just a number to help make things convenient, to help with trade. As long as it has the basic qualities it's all good. Central institutions hear about Bitcoin and immediately they want to control it... Risible... Crypto gambling moonboys don't care of course, but using a crypto will serve no purpose if it is fully controlled by a central bank. What we really need is to get rid of ultra controlling and manipulative central authorities. Central banks power must be reduced. Governments too. Their role should be of regulation, administration, resolving conflicts, governing the military (with limitations)... Not manipulating and spending like degens. Look around, there are great examples of centralized systems, decentralized ones, and mixed. But I think the best ones are a fusion of both. Just some examples off the top of my head... Central powers have to stop sticking their filthy paws everywhere, preventing innovation and causing poverty and generally pain & destruction. Let people with a financial incentive to do good, participate freely in the economy. There is no simple workaround. We have to get rid of all controlling central authorities. No alternative. Just like Ron Swanson said. Satoshi was right. We need to get rid of central institutions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
36
Results of Central Banks, US GDP and ADPLet’s analyze the key events of yesterday. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is rather depressed, as indeed the entire economy of the Eurozone. But at the same time, the euro did not show any specific movements. The dollar, on the contrary, despite the relatively good statistics, was losing its way. Preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter came out much better than analysts' forecasts (+ 1.9% y / y with a forecast + 1.6% y / y), consumer spending also showed growth. Employment data from ADP (especially important in anticipation of tomorrow's data on NFP) also higher than expected (+ 125K with a forecast +110 K). Although we note that fact that USD paired with the Canadian dollar strengthened due to the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave the rate unchanged. Therefore the USDCAD provided an excellent opportunity for its sales, as we recommended in yesterday. It means that you can sell it today. The main event of yesterday, of course, was the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee. The rate was cut by 0.25%. As a result, the dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Our recommendation on the dollar remains unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Tomorrow we are waiting for the official statistics on the US labour market, which is likely to lead to the formation of a full downtrend. But we will talk about this tomorrow. The Bank of Japan: the rate is unchanged. The press conference of the Central Bank will take place after the publication of this review, so we’ll talk about its results tomorrow. In the meantime, we tend to buy the yen primarily against the dollar. Today we are waiting for the statistics on GDP growth in the Eurozone, data on personal income and expenditure in the United State to come out. Our recommendations for today: sale USDCAD, as well as the dollar as a whole in the foreign exchange market; buy gold and sale the Russian ruble.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Commodities are Getting Ready to POP!!Gold typically leads commodities by a few months and so given the surges and breakouts in gold, silver, and platinum, I think the CRB index is next. Looking at the chart, its clear this is a chart that has been gradually shifting in trends. In my opinion, most of the heavy selling is over. CRB index has been forming a sexy looking base and looks like it could begin surging. Timing wise, this coincides perfectly with the Fed & central banks globally beginning new easing cycles. Its still early, as the breakout has not started, but its looking ready to get its first real pop sooner rather than later. In my view the CRB index presents tremendous value over the next several years, especially now at these ridiculously suppressed prices.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
3
Bank of Australia, euro immunity and dollar failureThe US dollar confidently dominated before the ISM index in the US industrial sector outcome, but after failure followed. The Australian dollar responded to the actions of the Central Bank. We observed decreased after the rate was reduced (the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday lowered the rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. This decision was expected by participants in financial markets). In general, we received one more confirmation in favour of the formation of a global vector for the widespread easing of monetary policies by leading central banks of the world. The current value of the Australian dollar shows interesting for purchase. Given that the ratio of potential profit / expected loss in the AUDUSD is close to ideal, today we will try to buy a pair based on the fixation of profits or just working off the level of 0.67. Stops below 0.6660, but the profits can be set in the area of 0.6800. The Australian dollar was not the only one the US dollar was strengthening. Another currency is the British pound. But again, it can be understood, the political sphere of Britain is getting closer to a complete dead end. The data on the PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing industry, although came out much better than forecasts (48.3 points with a forecast of 47.0), still turned out to be significantly lower than 50. The euro received another painful hit. This time, the PMI in the manufacturing sector disappointed (with the forecast 45.7). However, there were no euro sales, which suggested the formation of a bottom from which it might be able to push off and develop a correction. In the USA, meanwhile, political conflict continues. The "X" moment came after the publication of data on the ISM index in the US industrial sector. The index fell to the lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points. Recall that an index exit below 50 means decrease inactivity. The markets took this as a signal that the Fed would raise interest rates again in 2019 and rushed to sell the dollar. We have been waiting for these sales for a couple of days (see our previous reviews). We consider yesterday's dollar decline only the beginning of its fall and today we will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But at the same time, we note that yesterday's data was not something outstanding and sales were more related to expectations of possible weak data from the NFPs to come out than to the actual reaction to the ISM Index. Pay attention to the statistics on US employment from ADP. Although traditionally these data do not lead to a sharp increase in volatility, in general, the correlation with the NFP is small (about 20-25%), nevertheless, the state of the US labour market is one of the key moments, so a surprise may well provoke, for example, the long-awaited dollar sales by us. But for this, the figure should be below 100K.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Euro and pound weakness, dollar strength and US crisisThe political scandal in the United States and Trump's coming impeachment proceedings. So the US stock market was falling against this background, the dollar was striving for multi-year highs. Such behaviour could be explained by the weakness of competitors. The euro, for example, received a number of painful hits both from the weak data on the Eurozone (consumer confidence fell to the lowest levels since 2015) and Germany (according to experts at the DIW Institute, Germany's economy is heading into recession), and from the ECB’s chief economist announced the possibility of a further rate cut by the Central Bank. The British pound also suffered losses in the foreign exchange market. The main reason is Brexit, or rather, the lack of progress in the negotiation process between Britain and the EU, as well as a statement by Bank of England representative that the Central Bank could reduce its interest rate even if it would be possible to avoid Britain's exit from the EU without a deal. Despite the existence of reasons to dollar strengthen, we still consider it anomalous (in the end, the Fed has already lowered the rate twice this year and most likely will do it one more time). Therefore, this week we will continue to look for points for its sales. However, there is no need to look for for a long time - the current dollar prices are close to ideal sales points. Given the global vector of monetary easing by the Central Banks gold as an object of interest is strengthening. So this week we will continue to look for points of asset purchase. While gold is above 1485, we see no threats to its purchases. Last week, selles trend was dominating on the oil market. The main reason was information on Saudi Arabia return oil production to its previous level. Data on oil reserves in the United States (reserves rose), as well as updated IEA forecasts, showing a slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. In this light, our recommendation to sell oil this week remains relevant. Remember oil might be corrected any time, that means that small stops must be placed with every open position in oil. With regard to macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid primarily to statistics on the US labour market (traditionally it is published on Friday), the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expected to reduce rates by 0.25%), UK GDP on Monday as well as consumer inflation in the Eurozone and US business activity indices.
INDEX:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
GBPNZD after the factI was hesitant to post this trade setup and idea earlier in the week, however with the proper fundamental analysis as well as technicals there were clear indicators that GBPNZD was going to have a large selloff until it retested the trendline set in the 4h chart as well as the daily trend, if it breaks the "heartline" we will seek a reentry for a bearish movement. It is important to note the sudden drop to the take profit was due to the NZD central bank holding rates constant this time around where in terms means that the NZD appreciates in value. Furthermore, these types of scenarios tend to follow the given trend that is being formed, in this case a bearish movement was beginning hence the sell off as well. Hopefully this was insightful and next time I'll post my trade setup before it occurs. Please ignore the stop loss as it was a tentative one and I had a slightly higher one as well as an entry at a slightly later time slot yet at the same indicated prices
Short
by Canadianknowstheway
Repo-injections in the USA, Brexit optimism and other resultsWe have already written about the results and the Fed’s decisions, the Bank of Japan, Switzerland and England in a previous review. We only note that mood is “dovish”, which creates a favourable background for the gold growth, therefore, we continue to buy the asset this week. As for the USA repo market. A shortage of liquidity in the money market provoked the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for the first time in 10 years to resort to liquidity injections. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars a day. So far the dollar on the foreign exchange market reacted calmly, the problem may well be aggravated. Too large volumes of US government bonds are pumping dollars out of the US money market, which stimulating dollar infusion by the Fed. Whether it turns on the money machine at full capacity or a new round of quantitative easing is not clear yet, but for the dollar, it is an alarming signal. Our position on the dollar is also unchanged so far - we are looking for points for its sales. First of all, against the Japanese yen and the British pound. The last 3 weeks have been extremely successful for the British pound. Its growth against the dollar, counting from the beginning of September, reached 600 points. The last time such an impressive rally was observed at the end of 2018. Brexit is the reason for all the troubles and joys. This time, a series of defeats of Boris Johnson in Parliament led to the fact that the markets believed that there would be no withdrawal without a deal. This in turn sharply increased the chances of successful negotiations with the EU. This is also supported by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker comments that the Brexit deal could be concluded before October 31. But not everything is decided, this week is likely to give the pound several reasons for volatility. We are talking about unresolved problems with the Irish border, as well as the decision of the Supreme Court of Great Britain regarding the legality of the suspension of Parliament. Our position on the pound is still unchanged - we will look for points for purchases of the British currency. But we will do this from relatively conservative points. Friday showed that the pound can not only grow but also fall. Last week was extremely busy for the oil market. The drone attack on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia not only led to a 50% drop in oil production but also triggered a panic in the oil market. The result is the one-day oil growth record in history (an increase of about 15%). However, the very next day, Saudi officials assured that by the end of September production volumes would be restored. Even though now some imbalance has arisen in the oil market, given its temporary nature, we recommend oil sales. Comments from Arabia on the restoration of production ahead of schedule is likely to return oil to the level at the start of last week. And this means that 5% is the potential oil decline.
by Trade24Fx
1
Central Bank Week Results, OECD Forecasts and Pound GrowthFollowing the Fed, the Banks of Japan, Switzerland and England announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policies. They keep interest rate steady. Accordingly, there were no large movements in the pound, yen and franc parities. Although it is worth noting some strengthening of the yen following the Bank of Japan decision. Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) noted that the Central Bank supports the expansion of monetary incentives. So the global trend towards easing monetary policies may continue. Based on the results, our trading recommendations are unchanged. We will continue to sell the dollar primarily against the yen and the British pound. We will also sell the euro against the yen. As for the pound, its fate will depend entirely on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. We are still looking for a positive outcome, therefore, recommend buying the British pound. Moreover, yesterday the pound against the dollar rose to the highest levels since July 2019. This happened after the comments of the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker appeared that the Brexit deal could well be concluded before October 31. in the light Gold purchases continue to be relevant. Concern among investors yesterday updated OECD forecasts on the world economic growth rates were added. The organization lowered its estimates to 2.9% from 3.2%. OECD also warned that exit without a deal would provoke a recession in the UK economy. Speaking of the UK economy. Retail sales came out worse than expected -0.2% m/m (forecast was 0%). But once again we emphasize that the fate of the pound is now decided not by economic data, but by Brexit. Yesterday, data on the real estate market in the United States was published and again the data significantly exceeded experts' forecasts: sales of existing homes in August increased by + 1.3% m/m (forecast was -0.7%).
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
Fed's decision and dollar reaction, the CB of Japan and EnglandFed Decision: Interest rates cut by 25 basis points after FOMC meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the rate to 0,25%. FOMC does not have a fixed position: some members believe in further reduction, other members voted against any further reduction at this meeting. So could observe the lack of dollar sales. Different positions are understandable. In the last couple of weeks, the US economy has shown good outcome, so the Fed may well take a break in easing cycle. As for the USA. Statistics on the real estate market in the United States were published yesterday. The figures came out more than good. So, the start of construction indicator increased by 12.3% m/m (forecasts + 5%), and building permits in August grew by 7.7% m/m (analysts expected an average decrease of 1.3%). In general, talking about a downtrend in the dollar is premature, and even a correction in the dollar value is in question. However, today we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar. Today, the Bank of Japan has traditionally left monetary policy parameters unchanged. The Bank of Switzerland is also expected to leave the rate unchanged. However, both of these Central Banks are pursuing an ultra-soft monetary policy, there is simply nowhere to lower rates. The Bank of Japan has not yet held a press conference following the meeting when we were completing news background. If there are no surprises, then our position is to buy the Japanese yen today. First of all, against the dollar and the euro. The pound was under pressure yesterday. This was due to both statements by the EU that the risk of exit without a deal and macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer inflation came out below per cent. Weak inflation on the eve of the Bank of England decision announcement on the parameters of monetary policy is a sign for pound sellers activation. Total up to the verdict announcement we prefer to stay away from pound positions. Moreover, before that, data on retail sales in the UK will be published. Since the Bank of England will announce the decision today, we will present our adjusted position on the pound tomorrow. In the end, the pound is not the only instrument for trading. Gold purchases from local lows continue to be relevant. As well as oil sales from local highs. The situation with Saudi Arabia seems to have stabilized and markets generally calmed down.
by Trade24Fx
Central Banks Week Ahead: Our Expectations and Trading PlansECB president, Mario Draghi unveiled a package of measures to ease monetary policy: the rate was reduced, and new asset purchases were announced. The euro initially reacted “classically” - with a decline, but then on Thursday evening and Friday was growing steadily. A similar thing was observed last week with the Turkish lira, which sharply strengthened after the Central Bank of Turkey reduced its rate by 375 (!) Basis points. This reaction can be explained by the fact that now the absence of a recession in the future is more important for markets than a drop in profitability. So, we cannot wait to watch the dollar reaction to the Fed decision on Wednesday. The rate is likely to be lowered, but how the dollar will react is unclear. Of course, we will sell it, but keep in mind the variant of an illogical reaction. What we recommend to do in the future, we believe the dollar is doomed to decline. Reasons for its sales are understandable. The budget deficit that exceeded $ 1 trillion is enough to build apocalyptic theories and sell the dollar. This week will be rich in events related to the Central Banks. After Wednesday and the Fed’s decision, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Switzerland, and the Bank of England will announce their decisions on Thursday. Given the global trend towards easing monetary policy, surprises are likely from all the central banks mentioned above. So you need to be prepared for it. Therefore gold purchases continue to be a good trading idea. And this week we will continue to buy the asset on the intraday basis. Although Mario Draghi stated that the risks of a recession in Europe are insignificant, economic data suggest the opposite, as well as what the ECB does. So we will continue to sell euros this week. The general slowdown in the global economy is definitely against developing countries and markets. Russia seems to be particularly vulnerable in this regard, so we recommend selling the ruble. The pound continues to grow amid confidence in the markets that there will be no “hard” Brexit. Therefore continue to recommend its purchase.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Repositioning FX and Trump's new warYesterday, repositioning was continuing in the foreign exchange market. Traders tried to incorporate the change in the vector of the Fed’s monetary policy into the dollar price. As a result, today the probability of a rate cut at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is 100%. At the same time, 65% of traders are waiting for a decline of 0.25%, and 35% - by 0.5%. Note that a month ago, the probability of a rate cut in July was estimated by markets at 20%. Since vector changing of US monetary policy is a tectonic thing not only for the US economy but also for the world economy and the foreign exchange market as well, it is naive to believe that the markets will fully take this into account in one day. So we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales. Moreover, Trump seems to be going to redirect his efforts from escalating the trade war to a currency war. A strong dollar reduces to zero his protectionist efforts. So the attack on the dollar seems quite logical. And even if we do not see active opposition on the currency front, such rumors will have a negative impact on the dollar, because everyone wants to be the first to sell the dollar before it drops. The Bank of England, as well as the Bank of Japan, decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged yesterday. So, the Japanese yen and the pound moved in line with the basic trends of the foreign exchange market, without showing any particular individuality. About the UK. Boris Johnson won the vote for the fourth time and received 157 votes and left only 3 positions on the list of candidates. The end of the week is likely to be hectic. The markets have not taken into account the Fed's decision, and data on business activity in the Eurozone and the US, as well as retail sales in Canada, may well trigger a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and even the pound, sell oil and the Russian ruble, and also buy gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Tough week for foreign exchange market: the Fed, the BoJ & BoELast week turned out to be not that difficult. For instance, the data on industrial production was better than expected, also the data on retail sales appeared better as well, but still not that good. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)came out below forecasts, but the difference was minimal, and the dollar strengthened fairly well in the foreign exchange market on Friday. The dollar growth has been observed due to the Fed's possible future actions. This week the US CB is announcing the monetary policy decision. On the one hand, the weak data could convince the Fed to reduce the rate but on the other hand, Friday's data seems to have more influence in taking the decision. The Bank of Russia lowered the rate on Friday. Due to the economic situation in RF as well as the current decline in oil prices, we continue to recommend sales of the Russian ruble. The data on industrial production turned out to be lower than expected (5.0%, with a forecast of 5.4%). However, the weak data was offset by exceeding retail sales forecasts. The companies are concerned with the consequences of the trade war. Therefore, more than 500 companies and industry trade associations wrote to the White House urging Trump to remove levies on China and end the ongoing trade war. This week we are waiting for announcing the results of the FOMC meeting, BoJ and BoE decisions on monetary policy parameters, data on inflation statistics ( Eurozone, the UK, and Canada ) as well as data on retail sales from the UK and Canada. Our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold. We will look for points for buying GBPUSD with small stops.
Short
by Trade24Fx
The $BTC Moon Mission has completed Base of Operations. A further developed theory of previous publication. I'm sorry bears, chances are you have found yourselves in disbelief. Follow the trend, don't be the guy that short's this thing all the way through 100k. We haven't even started, Bitcoin's mission to Namek is the final story of a world economy ready to collapse and if you play your cards right, collect the rubble at the end of it all and rebuild a world desperately in need of a generational transfer of wealth. The Climate is changing, the banks are frankly crediting, citizens are over-borrowed on their homes and investment properties and Amazon needs to be broken up. NASA is building a moon base like come on the writing is on the wall... I dream of a day money is simply a tool to re-shape and help envision a better world for the kids that will be at war with the selfish decisions of their grandparents. Did I mention f**k Exxon Mobil? F**k Exxon Mobil.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by CryptoHicks
USDCHF - Sell AreaHi! The blue box criteria: 1. Monthly bearish candlestick patterns - February and March has ended up with Shooting Stars candlestick pattern. It is a bearish pattern and they got rejections from the trendline and from the big round number 1.0000. 2. Big round number 1.0000 should act as a resistance 3. Fibonacci retracement level 38% 4. Recently worked "hidden" resistance level 5. Even one yearly low is in this area 6. EMA 100 and 200 on the 4H chart should act as resistance 7. EMA's death cross It is NFP week so, be cautious with your trades and your analysis, try to catch only very strong setups! Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
Short
by VaidoVeek
1
Exceptional speculation from mid April '18 onwardsUsing an updated chart of earlier posted opportunity around AUDUSD (AU) I like to highlight and illustrate the exceptional speculation that has been going on since mid April onwards. The first and many incidence of the same speculation has often seen coming in very sudden which indicates a single source instead of graduate forming of buying/selling pressure you see normally when larger long term trends are forming. Only news events cause such sudden incoming interest in the buying or selling of an asset when it's coming from a group, but then there have to be a profound reason for it been in the news and it always dies out within a few hours. Quite often we have seen USD buying surges since mid April not complying with any of these rules on top of that these volumes were sometimes hidden from public pools and planned very timely to exactly block a USD bearish cycle from bringing down the value of USD or a potential opposite interest such as London open. The latter is just too silly to observe, suddenly on Tuesday morning Asia timezone when there are normally low volumes until one hour before London open, there would be a ridiculous sudden surge of GU and EU selling at a time it was never seen before. There is simply also no reasonable explanation for anybody selling GU and EU at that time other to stopping GBP and EUR from being appreciated. Nobody says a word and nobody writes about it since that I have noticed these out of place events. There are some economists speaking in youtube videos but searching for manipulation of USD returns litle results on Google and first few entries are about China manipulating their currency and Google's very nice suggestion list doesn't show a single entry when typing it out into the search field. Well, everybody knows that every single central bank is doing it, all of them. They call it market operations and it published on their websites. Look at the implementation notes published by the FED May this year or read on about RBA market operations published clear in public, just to name two examples but all central banks list it as normal operational tasks as part of their portfolio of services. Yet search seems to return limited results, making everyone believe very few people are interested in this business. Something so important as a ring-network of almighty controllers manipulating the financial market on a daily basis and nobody would be interested. That doesn't glue very well with me, censored it is, big time, for only one reason, this network of market operators have a lot to hide. More than they trying to let the everyone believe with their website publications. The dangers are that like this year the speculators are all making to believe the sudden interest is genuine, just to grow a large group of supporters because the FED know it can't beat macroeconomic cycles. At one the these will overpower the built up speculative forces against the macros over 6 months and that contr force will be stronger than ever seen on the market and speculators will realise that at one point in time and start selling on top of the macro selling pressure. That combined could give us the strongest ever seen sling back down from high up reaching far below it normally would go, the so called overshoot could reach the opposite side of the market at USDJPY 67...
Education
by Deep-Peat-Shark
SNB - Central Bank Canary in the Coal Mine exits to the shortAt long last, one of our most important Canaries in the Coal Mine - the Swiss National Bank - has exited a lengthy consolidation pattern to the downside. Frankly, we are surprised it lasted this long given its exposure to long US mega-cap. Whatever is going on in there, it needs to take out 5400 on the upside to nullify today's short signal using the simple www.40in20out.com trend trading approach. (For what it's worth, for some reason our PineScript does not work on the delayed quotes on this exchange. We continue to investigate.)
SIX:SNBNShort
by 40in20out