Is Draghi going to rescue the EUR? ECB Pre-Analysis 7/8/14We saw that the uptrend from the end of 2013 got destroyed just by one sentence:
"We are going to manage the strenght of the Euro against the Dollar in June."
The market got in a really overextended selling rally. Additional to that "market panic" positive US ecenomy values got released and Ukraine crisis destroyed stocks and indices of the european countries. This summary of negative influence on the EUR pushed the EUR/USD to a new yearly low.
But a big part of this rally was just a psychological reaction of the market participants after the statment of Mario Draghi.
This baseless loss of value is a kind of movement which gets a correction shortly after its happening. But the fundamental status prevented this "correction" after the loss of ca.300 points from 1.3993 towards 1.37 the market never experienced the correction of this 300 point rally.
Therefore I expect a correctional movement towards FIB 50% or towards the MA 200 just for the cause of giving the EUR/USD its fair price.
Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas
Black swan events: How currencies react - YenApologies for the ominous chart title on a Monday morning, but having spent the weekend watching a few documentaries about the Japan earthquake, I was intrigued on how the currency markets react to black swan events.
The Story (Japan Earthquake - Yen)
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The Tohoku earthquake hits Japan on 11th March. What we see is a sell off in USDJPY... In other words, people were selling USD to buy the Yen. Goes to show how strongly the markets believe in the Yen as a safe haven even if crisis comes to Japan.
After a sharp drop, G7 central banks intervene in the markets to offer support. So they start buying USD and selling Yen, which forms an interim rally.
On 04/07 BoJ announces a stimulus package, which triggers another sell off in the markets. Few days later, Fukushima nuclear alert is given which sparks a continuation of the sell off.
This time it breaks the CB's support as well.
I could go on but follow the notes on the chart backed up by the news sources that explains the currency moves.
PS: For all those ECB QE addicts, I stumbled upon a very nice article which is worth reading and could possibly shed light on how European QE could work:
Source: yhoo.it
PPS: The chart is incomplete... There's just too much happening when it comes to the Yen.