Get started

Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 31, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin gyrated in this week's trading between our major Mean Sup 67100 and the newly created Mean Res 69400. The upward movement target shows a continuous target of Bull Stage Squzee Rebound 73200, marked as Key Res 73200. The main obstacles are Mean Res 69400 and 71500, respectively. On the downside, we look at the established Mean Support at 65000 as a concrete target before a renewed upswing occurs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has broken through our Mean Resistance at 66900, completed our Inner Coin Rally at 69800, and then pulled back to the trading zone. The target for an upward movement is now set at the newly established Mean Resistance at 71500 and the aged Key Resistance at 73200. On the downside, we are looking at the newly established Mean Support at 67100 and a possible extension to Mean Support at 65000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Higher after US CPI but Policy Dynamics to WeighWednesday’s US CPI report showed a moderation in price pressures in April, following months of persistence, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% y/y and core to 3.6% y/y. Along with the miss in retail sales, markets strengthened their pricing for two rate cuts this year by the Fed, staring in September. The greenback fell as a result, sending EURUSD to the highest levels in nearly a month. this bring the March peak in the spotlight (1.0981), but we are cautious around the ascending prospects. US Inflation remains far from the 2% target, which along with strong economy and robust labor market have raised the bar for a Fed to pivot, leading policymakers to higher-for-longer narrative. Their European peers have made more progress on moderating price pressures and the economy struggles. As a result, the ECB looks more ready to lower rates, having hinted at a June pivot. The monetary policy differentially is likely to cap the upside and put pressure on EURUSD. Along with overbought RSI, there is scope for a retreat towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would shift bias to the downside and make the common currency vulnerable to the 2024 lows (1.0600). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
Gold Market Update Exploring Trends Stay ahead in the gold market with our latest analysis! Gold prices are holding strong around $2385, with potential to breach the $2400 mark amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainties drive investors towards gold, making it a safe haven asset of choice. Our in-depth analysis delves into market trends, technical indicators, and trading signals to guide you through potential opportunities. Explore the impact of central bank activities and inflation expectations on gold's trajectory. Don't miss out on valuable insights – keep informed with our comprehensive gold market update
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by sabellaFX
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's trading session Bitcoin completed the forthcoming Inner Coin Rally 72500, and as expected, the coin retraced to our designated Mean Sup 65600. Bitcoin is in the process of rebounding back to the 72500 scene of crime. On the downside, the market potential decline may occur, resulting in Bitcoin falling to Key Sup 61300 and an Inner Coin Dip 57200. The bull stage movement will arise from current price action or Key Sup 61300 and an Inner Coin Dip 57200, respectively.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's price action, Bitcoin rapidly moved towards a Mean Support level of 66700 and, in the process, established a new Mean Support level of 65600. This new level is being used as a base to ignite the bullish trend further. Currently, the market is experiencing consolidation, with the expectation of moving toward reaching the Key Resistance level of 73200 and beyond. However, a potential decline may occur, resulting in Bitcoin falling to the Mean Support level of 65600.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has achieved a decisive breach of its weak Mean Resistance level 68400, and is now eying the completed Inner Coin Rally 72500 and significant Key Resistance level 73200. The market anticipates that attaining these levels will set in motion a major bull run, with the primary target being the Inner Coin Rally 78200 first. However, it is essential to note that a potential takedown may occur, which could result in a decline to 66700.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's price has risen this week, surpassing Major Key Resistance 67530 and the all-time high of 69000. Its ongoing targets are the Inner Coin Rally 72500, the Next Inner Coin Rally 78200, and the Outer Coin Rally 81400. A slight dip to the Mean Sup at the 63800 price is expected before the next rally. Despite the increasing acceptance and rise in investor interest, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin remains subject to volatility and market fluctuations. As such, it is imperative to maintain rigorous vigilance over its price movements and market trends to make informed investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's price action saw a remarkable surge in the current week, which should not come as a surprise to this audience. After breaking through the completed Outer Coin Rally at 53000, Bitcoin's legit targets were 55000 and 59829, as this would. Bitcoin is setting itself up for the next launch, the Inner Coin Rally at 69000 and the Outer Coin Rally at 81400, which is expected to break records and disappoint those who have dismissed cryptocurrencies. However, a pullback to the Mean Sup at the 60400 price is a transient dip before the next rally. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains promising as it continues to attract more investors and gain wider acceptance. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price movements and market trends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart analysis on February 9th shows how powerful the Trade Selector System is to this Trading View platform. Bitcoin has completed the second phase of the reignited rebound extension phase, also known as the "Outer Coin Rally 53000". Currently, this analysis shows the downside price action is in pivotal squeeze mode; it is expected to rebound and retest Mean Res 52500. Moreover, completing the Outer Coin Rally 53000 from this spot is imminent.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
European Central Bank is holding rates untill Q3 Market Insight: ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau has emphasized that the decision on rate cuts in 2024 will be data-driven, rejecting a fixed timeline. ECB President Christine Lagarde, while suggesting a potential rate cut in the summer, emphasizes the importance of data in timing the decision. Central bank officials are cautious about immediate easing but acknowledge a long-term trajectory of lowering borrowing costs. Rationale: Anticipating the likelihood of a delayed rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), potentially impacting businesses' cost of borrowing and consumer spending, which could lead to lower revenues for companies in the European stock index. Trade Strategy: Short Position on European Stock Index: Consider initiating a short position in the European stock index (e.g., Euro Stoxx 50). Entry Point: Look for technical signals indicating a reversal or weakness in the index. Stop-Loss: Place above a recent significant peak to manage potential upward movements. Take-Profit: Target the next support level, considering potential downward pressure on index components.
FXOPEN:ESX50Short
by Elite_Forex
Euro to propel on relapsing EU inflation & US jobs dataFighting inflation is hard. Hence, central banks are data dependent while calibrating rates. Continuing geopolitical conflicts puts Europe at risk of inflation relapse. Headline numbers can be misleading. Central bankers will dig deep. Deeper analysis will compel investors and policy makers to rethink and recalibrate interest rate calculus. This paper unpacks US jobs & Euro area inflation report, and market expectations of rates ahead. UNPACKING US NON-FARM PAYROLL DATA The US labour market added 216k jobs in December 2023 surpassing expectations. It was up 25% month-on-month. Headline numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for October and November. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined. Jobs growth is concentrated in three sectors, namely, Government, Education/healthcare, and Leisure/Hospitality. Eighty percent of the jobs added are from sectors that are not considered growth engines. Three key takeaways from jobs report: 1. Employment growth remains robust: Month-on-Month employment trends point to jobs growth in government, leisure and hospitality, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. On a 12-month seasonally adjusted basis, apart from (a) Transportation & Warehousing and (b) Information, rest of the sectors added jobs. Source: BLS 2. Hourly Wage Earnings growth is strong: In December, average hourly earnings on private payrolls jumped by fifteen cents, or 0.4%, to USD 34.27/hour. Average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1% over the last year. Source: BLS 3. Unemployment Remains Unchanged: Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% (3.5% last year this time) with number of unemployed persons unchanged at 6.3 million (5.7 million last year this time). COMPREHENDING EUROZONE INFLATION NUMBERS Euro area inflation rose 2.9% YoY in December 2023, reversing a two-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Eurostat inflation estimates was marginally below the market consensus of 3%. Inflation uptick since April 2023 was primarily due to energy-related base effects. Energy prices declined 6.7% while services inflation was flat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, softened to 3.4%. Core inflation is at its lowest point since March 2022. MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF RATE CUTS Investors are betting that the US Fed and the ECB will cut rates six times this year. First rate cut is expected in March or April. Market expectations are in sharp contrast to policymakers. The US Fed expects to make three quarter-point cuts this year. The ECB has stood its ground arguing that the inflation fight is not over yet. Amid strong economic data, probability of Fed rate cuts in March has fallen from 100% to 70%. Source: CME Fedwatch Tool EUR-USD WITNESSED WILD MOVES ON INFLATION, JOBS, AND SERVICES DATA BUT SETTLED WHERE IT OPENED Last Friday news flow impacting FX rates were strong. Front month EUR-USD futures traded wildly opening at 1.0977 reaching a high of 1.1030 and then plunging to a low of 1.0908 before closing at 1.0977. December US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.6, the lowest reading in seven months, compared to 52.7 in November. Services industry is critical accounting for more than two-thirds of the US economy. Euro fell 0.5% last week, marking its largest weekly drop since early December breaking three consecutive weeks of strengthening. The EUR-USD is hovering at its support levels with the 50d DMA likely to print a golden cross with the 200d DMA. Near term technical signals point to strengthening of the Euro versus the US dollar. Momentum favours Euro while price reversion risk remains neutral. Diverging macroeconomic conditions leaves Eurozone exposed to higher risk of inflation relapse. The ECB is expected to be slower with rate cuts relative to the Fed. In anticipation, leveraged funds are starting to sharply reduce their net short positions in the CME EUR/USD futures. Source: CME QuikStrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Europe is at greater risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and the middle east. Energy and goods inflation relapse will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts. Size of the rate cuts, if any, is also likely to be smaller at the ECB relative to the Fed. This will strengthen the Euro against the USD in the near term. To harvest gains from a strengthening Euro, this paper posits a hypothetical long position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in March 2024 (M6EH2024) with an entry at 1.0979 combined with a target at 1.1123 and hedged by a stop at 1.0871, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.33x. Each lot of CME Micro Euro Futures contract provides exposure to 12,500 Euros. It is quoted in USD per Euro increment. Each pip i.e., 0.0001 per Euro delivers a P&L of USD 1.25. • Entry: 1.0979 • Target: 1.1123 • Stop: 1.0871 • Profit at Target (hypothetical): USD 180 (= 0.0144; 144 pips; 144 x 1.25 = 180) • Loss at Stop (hypothetical): USD 135 (= -0.0108; -108 pips; -108 x 1.25 = -135) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.33x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Better labour market is not equal better indices this time S&PFollowing last week's release of stronger-than-expected economic data, investors are recalibrating their expectations concerning aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. The market sentiment is shifting, with investors scaling back their anticipation of imminent rate cuts. This change in perception is amplified by the surge in bond yields, indicating a rising consensus among institutional traders to build short positions. The rationale behind these actions lies in the growing belief that the Fed might maintain its current restrictive policy stance for a longer duration than initially anticipated. This shift is underpinned by the robust health of the labor market, as evidenced by declining unemployment rates, diminishing jobless claims, and notably higher Non-Farm Payrolls reported last week. The entry level aligns favorably for execution, especially just before the commencement of the London session. Two Take Profit (TP) levels have been identified for this trade. The initial TP is strategically positioned at the upcoming 4-hour (4H) support zone, reflecting a prudent approach to secure early gains. For a more assertive yet realistic approach, the second TP is set at the 200-day Moving Average (200MA) on the Daily time frame (TF). Historical backtesting indicates a tendency for the market to approach or touch the 200MA during anticipated drops similar to the current market scenario. This second TP level, although more aggressive, presents a viable opportunity based on historical trends. Comment your opinion below . . .
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elite_Forex