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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

S&P in EUR present Wyckoff distributionS&P (in this chart ES futures) divided by EURUSD (in this chart Euro futures): The whole of 2022 could be Wyckoff distribution, now entering Phase C, the shortest phase. To confirm the pattern and continuation to phase D, look for: Fed hike less aggressively in 2023 ECB hike more aggressively in 2023 A move up in EUR (a move down in DXY) A move down in ES/SPY/SPX ideally no later than the end of December. Motivation: European investors are likely overweight US stocks in 2022. It is important to understand the price of S&P 500 in EURO as it is the cheaper currency to borrow. Macroeconomic trends suggest distribution rather than accumulation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Smitty61
GBPUSD: How to read the fundamentals?GBPUSD is ahead of an important week of CPI meeting in Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. if inflation remains under control we can expect fed to slow down the rate hikes more likely 50 bps the coming week and 25 bps early next year which should trigger USD bears and that's what we expect as well based on the last CPI data. Otherwise if CPI is above expectations we can expect the opposite Scenario and more of a strong Dollar and a hawkish FOMC. when Good fundamentals meet good technicals then there is a good probability for your trade to go in your direction but always keep in mind that trading is a field of probabilities and since everything could happen a proper risk management should be taken in consideration. my recommendation is to risk 1% per trade so that will allow you to stay in the market the longest possible and will help you to compound your account as well. Otherwise if you risk 20% per trade then 5 losing trades in a row will knock you out of the market. And you don't want that to happen so you should stick to proper risk management of always risking small and aiming high. if you have any question please don't hesitate to ask in the comment section. i'm happy to interact and answer to all!
Long
by JoeChampion
40
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 9, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin is continuously (Very slowly) advancing toward our leading destination of the Mean Res $17,600 and subsequently to the Outer Coin Rally of $19,100: However, the pullback to Mean Sup $16,700 is very much likely before further upward advancement. The retest of the Key Sup $15,850 is low at this time, pending the above scenario being played out. Of course, the question is always “Which way will this puppy break from the current position?”
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
FOMC Meeting Next Week: Bank of America Expects 50bp Rate Hike The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, and investors are eagerly anticipating the outcome of the meeting. Bank of America Global Research has discussed its expectations for the meeting, saying that it expects the Fed to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 50bp in December to 4.25-4.5%. According to Bank of America, the Fed has telegraphed this move over the last few weeks through its communications. However, the more important question is where the Fed will go next. Bank of America expects the median forecast for 2023 to move up by 50bp to 5.125%, which is consistent with its terminal rate. The bank also expects the dot plot to show 100bp of cuts each in 2024 and 2025. In addition, Bank of America expects the macro projections in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) to be revised to show lower GDP growth and inflation than in September, and higher unemployment. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bank of America expects Chair Powell to push back against easing in financial conditions and remind investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate. The bank believes that Powell will stress that the Fed's job is far from done. Overall, Bank of America expects the FOMC meeting next week to be consistent with the Fed's previous communications and for there to be no major surprises or shifts in policy. Some Jargon Explained The Dot Plot The dot plot, also known as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a visual representation of Federal Reserve policymakers' individual forecasts for where they think key interest rates will be in the coming years. The dot plot shows the central tendency, or the middle of the range, of the individual forecasts for the federal funds rate. Each participant in the FOMC meeting provides their own individual forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year, as well as over the longer run. These forecasts are then plotted on a chart, with the dots representing the individual forecasts and the lines connecting the dots indicating the median of the group's forecasts. The dot plot is released four times per year, along with the FOMC's policy statement, and provides insight into the collective thinking of FOMC members about the future path of interest rates. It is an important tool for investors to gauge the future direction of monetary policy. The Terminal Rate The terminal rate, also known as the long-run federal funds rate or the equilibrium real interest rate, is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve believes is consistent with the long-run health of the economy. It represents the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and is expected to prevail in the long run, once the economy has reached its full employment and price stability goals. The terminal rate is not a fixed number, and can change over time depending on a variety of factors such as changes in the underlying productivity and demographic trends of the economy. The Federal Reserve uses the terminal rate as a reference point when setting its short-term interest rate targets. In general, the terminal rate is expected to be lower than the current federal funds rate, as the Fed typically raises interest rates in the short run to prevent the economy from overheating and then lowers them in the long run to support economic growth. This means that the terminal rate can provide important information about the future direction of monetary policy.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby
The RBNZ could push AUD/NZD down to the 1.07 and 1.06 handlesIf the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should the RBNZ surprise markets with a 50bp hike tomorrow. As things stand, the RBA are expected to hike in 25bp increments and have even spoken of a potential 'pause' in rate hikes. This means RBNA remain the more hawkish than the RBA. This has allowed AUD/NZD to develop a nice bearish trend on the daily chart with timely swing highs, and prices are now on the cusp pf breaking lower and heading for 1.0700 and 1.0612. Unless we see a surprise 50bp hike tomorrow, the path of resistance appears lower for the cross and bears could seek to fade into rallies or short a break of new lows. - Initial target is 1.0700, then the 1.0612 low. - The bias remains bearish below 1.0900.
Short
by CityIndex
💶💴EUR/JPY The rally is not over yet💶💴EUR/JPY The rally is not over yet. 💶Euro is showing signs of strength in the current week. 💶 Looking at the Unemployment rate in the Eurozone, it stands at 6.6%, the lowest on record. 💶Inflation is already close to 10% and on the 31st when the flash year-on-year reading is forecast to be 10.1% 💶Interest rates have been raised by 75 basis points and the market is betting on another 75 point hike to 2%. The decision will be made on Thursday 27 October. 💶The consumer sentiment indicator which is off its lowest levels in years has started to rise slowly and the market expects the positive trend to continue in the coming months. There will be another reading on 28 October. 💶💴On the other side of the globe. 💴In Japan, no change. 💴Unemployment Rate low at 2.5% 💴Inflation low 3%. Japan is one of those countries that has not been hit by Inflation as much as Europe and the USA. 💴Interest rates at -0.1%. Still negative from 2016. Hence these falls in the Yen. When other countries raise rates causing their currencies to strengthen, their strength against the Yen increases. 💴For now, there are no increases on the horizon. The Bank of Japan says it has no intention of changing its monetary policy. 💴But the government doesn't want the Japanese Yen so cheap either, hence in recent days we have seen sharp falls which were interventions to stop the Yen weakening sharply against other currencies. 💴I don't think this will stop investors from pushing prices up again. Turning to the chart. 📈It probably doesn't need to be told to everyone that we have been in an uptrend since 2000. 📈In the last few days, after the interventions and the attempt to dump the price which was momentarily pushed upwards. This took place at support levels zoned between 143 and 145. 📈 We do not see any signs that the price is going to make any correction in the coming days seeing such big pullbacks on the 1D candles. 📈In order to determine the target we move to the 1M chart. 📈Where after measuring the 2 biggest downward waves using fibo. We come out with a cluster at levels of 160 which seems a very likely scenario if the policy of the central bank of Japan remains unchanged and we enter a time of growths on the Euro. 📈Entering at the current moment and setting a stop below the recent price pullbacks after the interventions with a take profit at the 160 level brings out our best profit/risk ratio so far since I've been posting at. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 21, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Bitcoin is churning between our Mean Res $19,550 and Mean Sup $18,750. As specified on the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For October 14, the possibility of moving to the Outer Coin Dip of $17,200 and extending the overall outcome to the #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 is in the process. Reaching out in the short-term to the Mean Res $19,550 and possibly Mean Res $20,385 is blowing hot and cold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Timing the bond markets meltdownIs the UK bonds or the gilts the culprit that trigger the global bond markets meltdown? Not exactly. In fact, in April this year, there were clear signals that the global bond markets were already in trouble, and we will discuss that. Content: • Why we should not blame it on the U.K bonds, then who? • How to overcome this global bond crisis? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. US T-Bond Futures: 1/32 of one point = US$31.25 32/32 is one point = 32 x US$31.25 = US$1,000 123 to 122 = 1 point = US$1,000 CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZB1!
by konhow
Bitcoin(BTC/USD)Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 7, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Bitcoin completed our interim rebound as specified Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For September 30. On the downside, the main target is our newly created Mean Sup $19,050, Key Sup at $18,400, and the next Outer Coin Dip at $17,200, with the possibility of extending to the prevailing move to #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 - There are possible short-term upside moves to Mean Res $20,385.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
The SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hikeThe SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011. The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point I am making is that the SNB are likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect. A 50, 75 or even 100bp hike could be on the table for the SNB A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, I’m not discounting the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3% - so perhaps they know something we don’t. CHF/JPY daily chart: There are fewer finer examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in ‘bullish sequence’ and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support. Prices have been coiling up within a falling wedge pattern (bullish in an uptrend) and potentially printed its swing low this week at the 10-day EMA. Furthermore, a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star has formed, so the bias remains bullish above this week’s low and for a move to the 150.71 high. A break above which brings 154 into focus. However, even if prices break low we would still keep an eye out for a potential swing low, given the diverging policies between the SNB and BOJ.
Long
by CityIndex
Can I tell you about: The BoJ InterventionThe USDJPY had been climbing strongly especially as the price broke above the 140.50 resistance level to an overall high of 145.90. However, before the high of 145.90 was reached, the price had been resisted by the 145-round number resistance level. On the 14th of September , as the USDJPY tested the 145 resistance level again, the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check, in apparent preparation for currency intervention. The signaling of the BoJ's intention to intervene in the Forex market saw the USDJPY trade lower towards the 142.50 support level. On 22nd September , with the release of the BoJ monetary policy decision maintaining at -0.1% and failing to indicate an intervention from the BoJ, the USDJPY traded with significant volatility but eventually traded higher towards the 145.90 price level. As the price hit the 145.90 price level, the BoJ announced that it had intervened in the foreign exchange market, to buy the yen for the first time since 1998, in an attempt to shore up the battered currency. This saw the UDSJPY plunge to around 140.36 yen. However, as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki declined to disclose how much authorities had spent buying yen, whether other countries had consented to the move, and with no subsequent signs of further intervention, the Yen has almost completely retraced the reactionary plunge. Currently trading below the 145 resistance level and the 78.60% fib level, the directional bias of the USDJPY is still heavily dependent on the strength of the USD and the overall volatility of the DXY. But it could be a while more before we see the USDJPY trade higher beyond the 146 resistance level.
by JinDao_Tai