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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 21, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Bitcoin is churning between our Mean Res $19,550 and Mean Sup $18,750. As specified on the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For October 14, the possibility of moving to the Outer Coin Dip of $17,200 and extending the overall outcome to the #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 is in the process. Reaching out in the short-term to the Mean Res $19,550 and possibly Mean Res $20,385 is blowing hot and cold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Timing the bond markets meltdownIs the UK bonds or the gilts the culprit that trigger the global bond markets meltdown? Not exactly. In fact, in April this year, there were clear signals that the global bond markets were already in trouble, and we will discuss that. Content: • Why we should not blame it on the U.K bonds, then who? • How to overcome this global bond crisis? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. US T-Bond Futures: 1/32 of one point = US$31.25 32/32 is one point = 32 x US$31.25 = US$1,000 123 to 122 = 1 point = US$1,000 CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZB1!
by konhow
Bitcoin(BTC/USD)Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 7, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Bitcoin completed our interim rebound as specified Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For September 30. On the downside, the main target is our newly created Mean Sup $19,050, Key Sup at $18,400, and the next Outer Coin Dip at $17,200, with the possibility of extending to the prevailing move to #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 - There are possible short-term upside moves to Mean Res $20,385.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
The SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hikeThe SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011. The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point I am making is that the SNB are likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect. A 50, 75 or even 100bp hike could be on the table for the SNB A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, I’m not discounting the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3% - so perhaps they know something we don’t. CHF/JPY daily chart: There are fewer finer examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in ‘bullish sequence’ and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support. Prices have been coiling up within a falling wedge pattern (bullish in an uptrend) and potentially printed its swing low this week at the 10-day EMA. Furthermore, a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star has formed, so the bias remains bullish above this week’s low and for a move to the 150.71 high. A break above which brings 154 into focus. However, even if prices break low we would still keep an eye out for a potential swing low, given the diverging policies between the SNB and BOJ.
Long
by CityIndex
Can I tell you about: The BoJ InterventionThe USDJPY had been climbing strongly especially as the price broke above the 140.50 resistance level to an overall high of 145.90. However, before the high of 145.90 was reached, the price had been resisted by the 145-round number resistance level. On the 14th of September , as the USDJPY tested the 145 resistance level again, the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check, in apparent preparation for currency intervention. The signaling of the BoJ's intention to intervene in the Forex market saw the USDJPY trade lower towards the 142.50 support level. On 22nd September , with the release of the BoJ monetary policy decision maintaining at -0.1% and failing to indicate an intervention from the BoJ, the USDJPY traded with significant volatility but eventually traded higher towards the 145.90 price level. As the price hit the 145.90 price level, the BoJ announced that it had intervened in the foreign exchange market, to buy the yen for the first time since 1998, in an attempt to shore up the battered currency. This saw the UDSJPY plunge to around 140.36 yen. However, as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki declined to disclose how much authorities had spent buying yen, whether other countries had consented to the move, and with no subsequent signs of further intervention, the Yen has almost completely retraced the reactionary plunge. Currently trading below the 145 resistance level and the 78.60% fib level, the directional bias of the USDJPY is still heavily dependent on the strength of the USD and the overall volatility of the DXY. But it could be a while more before we see the USDJPY trade higher beyond the 146 resistance level.
by JinDao_Tai
2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds RateThis post is intended to show the current gap between the market for the 2 year US treasury yield on bonds and the official funds rate, and why the market is forcing central banks hands into raising interest rates when the market is in such a fragile state in ability to support and maintain debt at heighten interest rate levels. Simply put, bond market are crashing (i.e. no one wants to hold onto treasure bonds at present because they are yielding very little / people are losing faith in governments ability to uphold their debt obligations / competition in the market for credit is rising etc. etc). All these factors play into buying selling behavior and is repriced in the market. As a bond or lone has a fixed bond or repayment structure ($amount), if the capital price the bond changes hand in the secondary market is lowered, the effective yield from the bond goes up. For example if a bond is made for $10,000 and requires a 10% interest rate (i.e. $1,000) per specified period, then if this loan / contract / bond (same thinking) is changed hands in the secondary market and sold for $5,000, the new own still receivers the conditions of the prior arrangement. Hence $1000 per period. As the price was $5,000, then the interest or Yield on that bond is now 20% (i.e. $1000 / $5000 x100 = 20%). As new credit is competing against the secondary market (i.e. you could loan your money out to a new loan or you could buy an existing loan (Bond) on the secondary market), this is how the bond market drives interest rates. Complicated but hope this makes sense. in summary, falling bond prices cases rising yields or interest rates. Raising bond prices causes lower interest rates. Central Banks play in this market as a market participant with an unlimited check book (this is how new base currency or M1 enters the market ( QE - Quantitative Easing) or is removed from the currency supply (QT - Quantitative Tightening ). If Central Banks want interest rates to rise, they flood the market with bonds, dropping the market prices with excess supply and causing yields to rise. If they want interest rates to drop, they soak up supply in the market of bonds, causing prices to rice and yields (interest rates to drop). This process is called 'Open Market Manipulation'. AKA planned market manipulation at it's best. www.federalreserve.gov The 'official funds rate' is just a forecast which shows how the Central Bank plans to manipulate the bond market until it's next meeting. Interest rates on loans / bonds etc should be viewed as a measure of risk of default. High interest rates reflect the reward on offer for lending your currency out and the risk you will not get it back. In short, Market conditions (such as inflation ) changes investors view on risk. When Central Bank manipulation of the bond market goes our of whack with the risk to lending in the market, we see large gaps between the yield curves on bonds between the official funds rates issued by the Central Bank . This gap is clearly shown this chart, comparing the 2 year yield against the Official FED Funds rate (the interest rate you hear about on the TV). History shows the 2 year is a good leading indicator on what Central Banks will do with interest rates. Make no mistake, the market and inflation is forcing Central Banks to raise interest rates. I very much question the robustness of 'the economy' to handle higher interest rates at present.
TVC:US02Y
by Brodie
3
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
9
Can USD/JPY finally make a break for 140?The question on most trader's minds is whether USD/JPY will finally test 140. And another question is whether the BOJ (Bank of Japan) could intervene to weaken the yen and send USD/JPY lower. But it should be remembered that it is not an exact level in which the yen trades as to whether the BOJ intervenes, but how quickly it gets there. The BOJ have made it clear that they view a weaker currency as beneficial for the economy overall, so as long as volatility remains in check the potential for 140 USD/JPY (or higher) remains a distinct possibility. But given that Friday's NFP report is the main focus for the week, perhaps prices will remain below 139.39 heading into it and retrace against the trend. As for the charts, its rally has stalled just below the YTD high (139.39) and a Doji formed on the daily chart, which shows a slight hesitancy to break immediately higher. The 20-bar eMA has provided support on the 4-hour chart and a bullish engulfing candle has formed, leaving the potential for another crack at the YTD high. But such key levels rarely break upon their first re-test, hence the potential for a pullback. But we'd look for bullish setups at or around the 138 support level or lower trendline, in anticipation of its next leg higher towards 140 - near the weekly R3 pivot point.
Long
by CityIndex