MOBILEYE DD - A COMPLETE UPDATE!It's been a tough two days with getting ZERO news at CES2025. Mobileye has reported news here every year for the past couple of events. Thus, no news was devastating while pouring colder water on the situation with Riskier names falling like a knife, the market overall condition being unclear, FUD setting in the markets, and people being scared of an NASDAQ:NVDA competitor. It was an avalanche of multiple criteria, all of which weren't the potential Honda deal I spoke about. Which I was wrong on and I'll admit that, but all I was doing was taking all data in front of me and created a thesis were I truly saw it happening, it didn't, oh well. My initial technical or fundamental investment thesis didn't include Honda anywhere in it when I started researching and investing in this company many months ago! I share IDEAS HERE, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Only the fact that there was no deal announced at all. The CEO in a recent Bloomberg interview identified the reason the stock was falling but said:
"We are not ready with announcements, I think we'll have major announcements throughout the year but we're not ready yet" Amnon Shashua - Mobileye CEO
I don't see the NVDA news as a bad thing and people don't understand that they already had this sector of their business up and running. In which Hyunda just left them and are looking for a different supplier of AV technology. Also, Nvidia called this a multi-trillion-dollar market and validated everything I already knew. Which is this sector is going to be a massive investment opportunity. Mobileye is still Top 3 in Autonomous vehicle technology alongside Waymo and Tesla. NVDA is nowhere to be found in that conversation, and the same is to be said about AMZN, who also is in this space. It's the same thing when AMZN got into the pharma delivery market and everyone sold off HIMS to turn around and be right back in stock price in a few weeks.
These large companies do certain things really well, but they try to have their hands in too many cookie jars at once and don't invest the attention and necessary manpower to make them the best they could be or even competitive to smaller companies whose only business is in said sector!
This is 60% and investment for me and 40% trade. I'm in this for the most part, the long haul. I will only sell my 40% trade allocated position when we hit our profit targets or my strategy tells me to exit. Which leads us to the charts.
Weekly: (Chart Shown)
-H5 Indicator is still Green
-We are at a Volume shelf
-At the smoothing line (yellow) to the 9ema
-We have further support from the 25MA
-We have this DIP BUY BOX that I've called out in the past multiple time in which we've built up this area of support from all the back and forth and volume within this box.
-We had a one week red candle the like we've only seen a couple other times when things were a lot worse and unknown before earnings or when they lowered rev. guidance (THINGS ARE A LOT BETTER NOW THAN THEY WERE THEN! WE JUST DIDN'T GET NEWS YET! THATS IT!) Typically the week or weeks after we get these massive amount of sell volume we get a bounce back week or weeks.
-Finally, this name still to my knowledge pending new data has a 23% SHORT FLOAT and as such this trade of a short squeeze and parabolic move is very much still on the table!
Daily Chart:
-At the same big S?R zone
-Same large volume shelf
-In my eyes taking a breather and collecting/ rallying the troops before another run at $23
-Most importantly, when we smashed into the red barrier of the Williams percentage range (Wr%) and the 50MA on the daily and 100MA on the weekly, we rejected hard. Do we get the same bounce move when we are running into the Wr% GREEN bounce support beam? While also being extremely oversold on timeframes under the daily timeframe. Finally, being right at the volume shelf, 50MA that already did a bullish cross of the 100MA!
- We are still in an uptrend!
The fundamentals haven't changed, and based on my investing spreadsheet, which is mostly a DCF model, it's still a $30+ stock!
- Headwinds are still becoming tailwinds (Falling interest rates/ inflation, China recovering, Auto market recovering)
NOTHING HAS CHANGED BUT THE PRICE OF A STOCK TICKER!
The haters can honestly kick rocks until they realize they are in control of their own financial decisions and can THEN come back, understand this game and learn! Some said I owed them an update, which I laughed at as I DON'T OWN YOU ANYTHING! The ideas I post here are FREE, and I'm paying to be on this service, just as some of you are! Some of you really need to look in the mirror and self-reflect. I'll still help you, too, friend; I don't like to hold hate in my heart for anyone; it's unhealthy!
I'll never let the haters win or get me down! I will continue to do me with this stock and post my ideas for all of the people out there that have learned and appreciate my work! Too many great people out there that truly want to learn and become better and I will help them do that EVERY STEP OF THE WAY!
So, here is my DD Mobileye Technical and Fundamental update for all my amazing followers who aren't TOXIC! I LOVE YOU!
AS ALWAYS, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
