CFD
NG Bearish ScenarioAs you see in the chart, we are in a downtrend and there is a resistance level at 4.182 which has pushed the price to the downside.
Currently, price is facing a bullish pressure which may push it to retest the resistance level one more time (We may see a double top pattern creation).
There’s a support level at 3.962, and if price breaks this level to the downside and closes a bearish candle below this level, I expect a drop on NG to 3.852 and 3.700
Otherwise, if price breaks the resistance at 4.182 to the upside with bullish candle closure, the bearish scenario is invalid and we expect a rise to the next major high around 4.400
Market remain unstable AUDUSD EURUSDAUD/USD🔼
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Tuesday's trading session was marred by choppy, unexpected trading conditions for the second consecutive day. The S&P 500 is still trading in the red ahead of the US close. Still, it has rebounded sharply from earlier session lows, providing a sense of foreboding following yesterday's fierce late-session rally. As a result of the recent sensitivity of G10 FX markets to equity market volatility, the net result is a somewhat pro-risk bias. The Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly higher on the day but has retreated from previous highs in the 96.20s to trade below the significant figure.
The USD shrugged off mixed Consumer Confidence data. The headline index fell marginally but not as much as feared due to inflation and pandemic (Omicron) fear, and somewhat faster than expected home price increase in November. Markets' primary focus is on
1) Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and
2) geopolitics, both of which have been cited as reasons for risk asset underperformance and increased safe-haven demand.
However, one day ahead of what is projected to be an extremely hawkish Fed meeting (the Fed is predicted to approve multiple raises and QT in 2022), the most risk-sensitive G10 currencies performed nicely.
The Australian and Canadian dollar both gained roughly 0.3 percent on the day against the dollar, relegating them to second and third place in terms of G10 performance, trailing the high beta NOK, which gained 0.5 percent. The Australian dollar rebounded over 0.7150/$ on hawkish RBA wagers following a hotter-than-expected Q4 2021 Consumer Price Inflation report that will have surprised the central bank.
Hawkish central bank wagers are also bolstering the loonie. A minority of experts expect the Bank of Canada to surprise the market on Wednesday with a 25 basis point rate hike. Rather than that, the bank is more likely to adjust its forward guidance on rate hikes to reflect the current run of positive economic indicators, implying a rate hike is imminent in March.
GBP/USD was another risk-sensitive G10 currency that performed well on Tuesday, with GBP/USD returning above the 1.3500 level as FX markets continue to disregard the uncertain political backdrop in the United Kingdom. With London police investigating charges that Downing Street parties violated lockdown rules, Boris Johnson's position as Prime Minister appears precarious.
In terms of the rest of the G10 currencies, the JPY and NZD were flat against the dollar on the day, with USD/JPY trading just below 114.00 and NZD/USD trading just below 0.6700 ahead of December New Zealand trade numbers.
Despite positive German Ifo survey findings released during the European morning, the euro fell 0.2 percent against the dollar, with EUR/USD harmed by technical selling following a fall below a significant long-term uptrend in play since late November. The pair is currently trading around 1.1300, rebounding from earlier lows in the 1.1260s, its lowest level in almost a month.
Finally, CHF was the day's notable G10 underperformer, with EUR/CHF appreciating 0.4 percent to the 1.0375 range and USD/CHF gaining 0.6 percent to reach 0.9200 for the first time in almost two weeks amid speculation regarding SNB intervention.
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GBPNZD-- playing a single level in a larger fibo placementLooking at price action on some of the different hourly timeframes + high probability retracement opportunity on GBPNZD. Be sure to check out the next post i make which is my analysis of this same pair from a higher timeframe perspective. Show some love and leave a comment telling what you think about my analysis.
Gold,XauusdThe global ounce of gold is on a downtrend (correction), the downtrend line is broken but the price is still moving below $ 1830. If the price stabilizes above 1830, we can have the first long-term trend changes.
But looking at the valid moving averages 50 and 100, which are very useful numbers in gold, we notice a negative failure in these two moving averages, but the important point is the breaking point of these two averages, which is done at $ 1773 and has become an important area. It has been said that the essence of this area is for resistance, that is, first confirming the price to come down and then resistance at the desired price.
But the key support of $ 1690 after the failure of support 1760 is very important.
Be successful and profitable
Brent Crude Oil Short Idea Brent Crude Oil has reached the Key physiological level of 80.00. On Friday the price surpassed the 82.50 area however since then the price has been unable to break past the previous high. On the Daily and 1hr time frame, the RSI levels are in oversold areas which indicates a sell on a short-term bias sentiment. The initial target for this trade is located at 81.20 - followed by 79.62 if the downtrend continues. The stop-loss is located at 82.88.
USOIL RiseUSOIL has a bullish trend and price broke the daily resistance zone from November 2021, and could fix above it.
In the 1H chart, a little symmetrical triangle pattern and also a pennant pattern have been made by price.
Currently, the pattern is broken out to the upside by a strong large bullish candle closure above it.
We can expect more rise for USOIL to the next 4H major high at 81.780
BTC/USD Downside? 17 Dec 2021Bitcoin is in a very red market this week, and we’re looking for the downside to continue further, below the $40,000 mark.
Technically the coin is holding below the 50% fibo level resistance. The RSI is also now trading at bearish levels, as is the MACD. Price is also capped below the resistance trendline.
Downside Target: 37,500
Violated Above: 53,300
US30's movements It seems price is moving up in a parallel chanel. It is time to go up again but, if down break-out happens, our analysis would fail.
Note: sorry for my bad English. I am not a native.
Wheat is going to start Wave.5If this down-trend is Wave.4, I am waiting to reverse and take profit!
Crude Oil (Bearish)As you see in the chart, price didn’t succeed to make a higher high in its last upside move and has been rejected and pushed to the downside by the red resistance zone.
Moreover, a bearish reversal double top pattern has been created and the neckline is broken out.
Currently, we are in a downtrend and price is fixed below the neckline and is dropping after retesting it.
I expect a drop to 75.200 for now and If price breaks the support level at 75.180 and closes a candle below this level in 1H, we can expect more fall for Crude Oil towards 72.450 and 69.750 in a long-term period.
GOOGLE Drops As you see in the 1H chart, after a strong uptrend, price has started to rest and bounce sideways.
There are downside and upside moves in the sideway zone, and currently, the ascending trend line of the last upside move is broken out to the downside and price has started a sharp downtrend.
I expect a drop on price with two targets:
First to $2893 and in the case of a downside breakout on this level, the next target for GOOGLE is $2869
Are you into stocks?
What is your outlook on GOOGLE?
Feel free to share your ideas in the comments.
Copper Long EntryCopper has Fallen in price towards a key support level as well as a trend line that has been respected multiple times. The RSI levels are also in oversold conditions at the moment, with all of these factors in play it seems likely that the price will go up from here. The targets for copper to the upside are at the recent highs of 4.4420 which is a heavy liquidity zone. The stop loss area for this trade is at a recent low of 4.052.
Asset Classes - Part 1 and 2 - For beginnersAsset classes - Part 1 - Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies
There are several types of asset classes which group together investments with similar characteristics. However, each asset class also has its own particular features that it does not share with other asset classes. Most common asset classes are: equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and currencies. Correlation between different asset classes within the same industry is common. However, asset classes in unrelated fields show very little correlation. Each asset class possesses a different level of liquidity; most liquid asset classes are equities, fixed-income securities, and commodities.
Sub-asset class
Asset classes can be subdivided into sub-asset classes; for example, commodities can be subdivided into lumber, metals, oil, etc. Sub-asset classes can be further subdivided into separate groups which show common characteristics while showing characteristics of the broad group at the same time. For example, metals can be subdivided into precious metals and industrial metals. Each group can be then divided even further to efficiently distinct between separate features of asset type. For example, precious metals can be divided into gold, silver and platinum.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows a daily chart of continuous CFD on WTI oil. Price made a low of 33.67 USD on 2nd November 2020 and continued to rise until it reached a high of 85.39 USD on 25th October 2021.
Correlation
Some assets tend to show correlation. Such correlation can be positive or negative. Positive correlation means that two assets behave in a similar way. For example, when gold rises then mining stocks rise as well. Contrary to that, negative correlation describes such behavior in which assets move in the opposite direction to each other. For example, when USDEUR declines then WTI oil tends to rise.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily graph of Exxon Mobil Corporation which belongs to the oil mining and exploration sector. It made a low of 31.11 USD on 29th October 2020 and then continued to rise until 1st November 2021 when it reached a high of 66.08 USD. Positive correlation can be observed between CFD on WTI oil shown in Illustration 1.01 and Exxon Mobil Corporation stock.
Stocks
Stocks, also called equities, are normally issued by an eminent (company, state, etc.) as shares which give right of ownership to their holder. These shares are then sold by eminent (to investors) with the purpose to raise capital. Stocks are predominantly traded on stock exchanges and they can be either common stocks or preferred stocks. Common stocks entitle a shareholder to vote at shareholders´ meetings and to receive dividends being paid by a company. Preferred stocks differ from common stocks in that they usually come with limited or no voting rights at all. Though, preferred stocks have higher claims to dividends and distribution of assets by a company. This means that in case of liquidation of a company preferred stockholders have priority over common stockholders. In addition to that, preferred stocks can pay higher dividends than common stocks and because of that they are good for building passive income based on dividend payments which can be monthly or quarterly.
Bonds
Bonds are simply loans made by an eminent (borrower) which can be state, corporation, or any other legal entity. Bonds are considered fixed-income instruments because they come with interest payments being paid out to an investor. Owner of a bond is called debtholder while the issuer of a bond is called a creditor. Bonds are tradable assets and they have maturity. In addition to that, bonds come with risk of default. Because of that, higher yielding bonds usually come with higher risk of default. Bonds are great investment vehicles for building passive income, however, they generally underperform in terms of yield when compared to stocks, commodities and indices. Bond yield is negatively correlated to bond's price.
Commodities
Commodities are basic goods (such as gold, lumber, oil etc.) that are used in commerce. They are usually refined or used for production of other goods. Commodities can be traded on market exchanges where they must meet specified minimum standards like quality, weight, type, etc. Commodities are great speculative and anti-inflationary investment vehicles.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of CFD on WTI oil. On 20th April 2020 due to the WTI oil crisis at Cushing, Oklahoma price plunged below negative 36 USD (-36 USD per barrel). Unfortunately, that is not depicted on the chart (chart depicts lowest value at 0.00 USD).
Currencies
Currency has the role of a medium of exchange for goods and services in almost all economies around the world. There are many different currencies worldwide, however, predominantly used currencies are U.S. dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP), Yuan (CNY) Ruble (RUB), Yen (JPY). Relationships between currencies are highly intertwined making the currency market very complex and hard to predict. Central banks can influence currency rates through monetary policies such as interest rates and quantitative easing. Similarly, a government can impact currency rate by enacting fiscal policies. These policies can have an impact on spending, import, export, etc.; which will, in result, influence currency rate. In addition to all of that, some currencies exhibit positive or negative correlation with commodities such as gold, oil, etc.
Illustration 1.04
Illustration above shows the daily graph of EURUSD. It is observable that EURUSD made lows in March 2020 and then continued to rise towards November 2020. Only a month later in April 2020 oil bottomed out and then started to rise in tandem with EURUSD (depicted in Illustration 1.03).
Asset Classes - Part 2 - Cryptocurrencies, ETFs, CFDs
Modern technology along with financial evolution brought rise of new asset classes such as cryptocurrencies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), contracts for difference (CFDs) and options. These new financial instruments represent alternative investment to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Additionally, some features within these products can help an investor to diversify portfolio, trade short and use leverage with ease of a few mouse button clicks.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency is simply digital currency. Most cryptocurrencies are based on blockchain technology which acts as a distributed ledger that is run by a large number of computers that comprise decentralized structure. Normally, cryptocurrencies are not issued by central authorities (however, central banks around the world currently work on digital form of fiat currencies). Cryptocurrencies are encrypted by cryptographic methods which makes them very difficult to counterfeit and double-spend. These assets are considered to be more volatile when compared to stocks, bonds, commodities and fiat currencies. Another defining feature that sets cryptocurrencies apart from other assets is that they are traded non-stop (24 hours a day, including weekends). Most popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE).
Illustration 1.04
Picture above shows the monthly chart of BTCUSD (Bitcoin in USD). It is very easy to spot unbelievable growth of more than 862 000 % between August 2011 and November 2021.
Exchange traded fund (ETF)
Exchange traded fund is a type of security that is publicly traded on a stock market exchange and which tracks an index, stock, commodity, or other asset. Exchange traded funds can track either one asset or group of assets. This allows an ETF to be structured in such a way that it can reflect performance of a particular economic sector.
Illustration 1.05
Illustration above shows the daily graph of JETS ETF which is an airline exchange traded fund. It has exposure to airline manufacturers, airline operators, airports and terminal services.
Contract for difference (CFD)
Contract for difference is exchange traded security that is cash-settled and which does not include delivery of goods. It simply pays the difference between the opening price and closing price. CFDs copy the price of other securities and they can be traded short, and also on margin. However, usually higher fees are associated with CFDs when compared to stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Illustration 1.06
Depiction above shows the monthly graph of CFD on USOIL.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
HK50 Returns To Bullish ChannelThe HK50 has managed to returned to the bottom of its bullish channel that was created on the 1hr/4hr time frame. This kind of price rejection on the downside is positive for the bulls, and the possibility for a continuation on the upside is very likely at this point. We are approaching the end of the year, and we are approaching Thanksgiving. Market participants tend to be more optimistic around these times of year, and with risk off sentiments dwindling, the possibility for the HK50 to create another high is very high. This kind of play would present itself to have a very high risk:reward ratio, and it is a play I am most certainly playing. Stop loss is below the bullish channel and target is at the last high.
Gold Analysis for October last weekYellow metal couldn't barge the resistance at 1813 and fell to the support @ 1782. In this we may see a possible push towards $183O, which has been a strong resistance in the recent history of this precious metal.
222
Above this resistance will open doors for 185O and 19OO's. Below this resistance will welcome 175O ,172O and 168O's once again.