US30 thoughts post CPI pre FOMCHi, and thanks for taking the time to look at our latest update. We hope everyone has been hitting some trade wins.
Today we are looking at the US30 after its wild session after yesterday's US CPI data. The data came in below expectations, and this continues the run of lower-than-expected releases. This remains a touch confusing, as last week, we saw the PPI increase. Inflation sits at 7.1% y/y. Is this enough for the fed to set a slightly more dovish stance this week?
Message from the fed has softened, but we still expect to see rates come in 50 points higher this week. This is a decrease on previous meetings, so it's a softening in that area if it does happen. The gambler in me wonders if we could see 25 points before Christmas, but the realist thinks we will most likely see the expected 50 points.
The US30 saw one heck of a fade after the CPI data, and that does make me wonder if the market is feeling edgy regarding the feds' message this week, which may coincide with a high point in the rally. For now, we see resistance at 34,600 and at 35,270.
Will that feds message this meeting cement buyer confidence, or could it start a new push lower if the message moves away from the softening tone we have started to see develop?
The FOMC, funds rate, statement and economic projections will be released tomorrow morning AEDT time at 6:00 am, followed by the press conference at 6:30 am.
Cfdtrading
Oil reverses losses. Could we see a push higher? Hi TradingView community, today’s focus is on oil as price has, for now, reversed seller momentum and could be starting to form a support bounce.
Overall the price remains range-bound between 93.50 and 83.65. But price continues to trade outside of the last major downtrend, and we have two higher lows after the September low.
Today sellers took control in the Asian session, but with a risk asset recovery into the LON session, we have also seen oil’s fortunes reverse back to the buyer side.
We can see a solid area for demand from and below support, which lines up with the higher lows. Today’s reversal maintains 85.40 support and will continue to back up yesterday’s higher low if we see a higher close today. These are all good signs, and if buyers can continue, we will be looking to see if they can retest the supply area. A break of supply could set off a new leg higher that we hope could retest resistance.
If buyers fail today and we see a new move back below 85.40 support, this will keep us on the lines as we wait to see if supply can continue to hold.
EIA crude inventories are due Thursday morning at 2:30 am AEDT.
Have a great Wednesday and good trading
US30 makes it two in a row, but do we need more evidence?What a start to the week and month we are seeing so far, traders. So far, buyers have added 5.52% to the US30, taking prices back to levels not seen since last month.
Yes, it is great to see, but should we start thinking bottom? The UN is warning that we could see a global recession, with developing nations possibly seeing the brunt of the hurt. JP Morgan is also advising this might not be a bottom unless we see certain factors met.
What has been driving the selling, Inflation, rising rates, U.S. and global recession fears? Have these factors gone? US-wise, the Fed remains hawkish, and Inflation remains in play. It is not uncommon to see sharp counter rallies in downtrends, and we need to be in tune with the market to either not be sucked in early or spot a potential turn.
Bulls are definitely back in charge in the short-term, but it’s the next reaction lower that could give us some key evidence in if we are going to see a potential turn. A new higher low followed by a break of the last high would be a very good sign that a new short-term trend is starting to form.
If we see a new move back down to or below the last low would be a worry that the current trend could continue lower.
This Friday’s U.S. employment data could also be a factor for the current recovery, and we feel that traders will be paying attention to its release this Friday at 8:30 am EST.
Thanks for tuning in for today's update. We like to hear from you, so please feel free to drop us a comment. We also run weekly webinars with guest analysts.
EURNZD Double bottom BreakoutThe idea here is about Forex: Euro/New Zealand Dollar (EURNZD).
My view is bullish short term for the above mentioned pair due to the below observed technical factors.
Points as per TA on a Weekly Chart:
1. Double Bottom pattern completed and neckline broken on weekly chart and the target goes the same distance as the height of the pattern, up from the neckline as below:
2. Broken out of downtrend long back with false breakout and breakdown on weekly chart as below:
3. Support Established on 200 EMA as below :
4. Possible Butterfly pattern CD leg under formation and min Fibonacci distance from XD is 1.272 as below which can is considered as future target price:
5. Trading above 20 & 200 EMA on Daily chart.
6. Kumo Twist & Breakout on a daily chart is Strong and on weekly kumo twist is neutral & Kumo breakout is currently consolidating.
7. RSI is at 73.14 on a daily and 66.31 on weekly chart at the time of publishing.
8. MACD way above signal line on weekly & daily chart.
9. Hull Moving Average & other Moving average is a strong Buy Signal on Daily, Weekly & monthly chart.
10. ADX is at 54.46 on daily chart (ADX Value above 50 is considered as very strong trend) & 13.19 on weekly chart (ADX value below 25 is considered as absent or weak trend).
11. Volume Spike in weekly chart signals strong Momentum.
Projected targets provided in chart.
Stop Loss: provided in Chart.
Note: Please bear with me if there is anything which I might have missed. Since, I am publishing my first TA on Forex.
Disclaimer: “The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice. So please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment”.
Do you like my TA & ideas!!
Want to keep yourself updated with current market action? Then don’t forget boost & to subscribe for more analysis. Do leave your valuable feedback
& comments for any improvisations.
Cheers.
WTI CRUDE OIL US OIL DROP MORE ?Hey traders! In the US OIL Market structure we see after drop of oil prices on 14 sep from 90$ per barrell price is now holding its support area which is 84$.
What we see in market structure?
Price breakout its market structure in 2h timeframe and show the selling pressure at 86$ which is very stong support for usoil now price again come to this level now as a resistance and respect this level/ also bearish flag formation also indicate that we see selling continuation in the price of us crude oil on monday market opening. Price is near its support and test multiple time and it show the weakness of support we see on monday and coming week/ this week also fed rates are coming so banks and institution smart money also looking for fresh data coming from US/
TECHNICALLY US OIL is showing selling pressure after the breakout of bear flag we go for the short position sell in wti us oil for the target of next pivot point support 82.40 level and next the low of 08 sep 81.36 level which is strong support we see in oil price. Our stop loss is in the monday high or the previous 2h candle high or above the 2h previous candle.
US30, are sellers getting ready to test 30,550? In today’s video, we are looking at the US30. We start with a longer-term view and move down to the short term. Overall, the market continues to trade in a corrective phase that could be called a bear market.
The issue we see here was the last relief rally that broke the downtrend. While it did upset the pattern of the downtrend, sellers now look to have broken that trend, and Tuesday’s session could be a bit more than an exhaustion bar as sellers so far today have made a new LL maintaining a normal pattern of trend.
After yesterday’s latest move lower, could we be set to see 30,550 retested by sellers? That could become an important point if buyers can hold it. We will then look to see if a new LH and retest of the area could re-confirmed. Otherwise, a new break could set up a new move that could test the 30,000 area.
A lot will depend on the current inflation outlook guided by future data and the Fed. Interesting times. We love hearing from you, so please drop us a comment on your thoughts.
Enjoy your Friday and good trading.
GER30 are sellers starting to take control?
Hi, and welcome to Friday's update. In today's video, we are focusing on the GER30 daily chart. Price action and the OBV indicator are starting to show signs that sellers could be gaining short-term control over the market.
Looking at price we can see that buyers made a failed breakout attempt, and sellers came in strong on the next session with an engulfing bar. Yesterday buyers held a rally but closed well-off highs showing plenty of rejection. Today, sellers have started a new move but still have a little work to do. We would like to see sellers continue to push lower and break support seen at 13,640. A break and close below yesterday's low could be the trigger for a new leg lower if sellers can hold the move.
If buyers can regain control and close price back above 13,750, we would be looking for more evidence before we continue to think that the market is set to break lower.
What are your thoughts? We also like to hear feedback from our readers. Thanks for stopping by. We hope you are all enjoying your Friday and good trading.
UKOIL back to Prices before February 24th? This graph is a representation of my point of you of the futures market (USD).
Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in.
Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase.
But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise.
US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
3K T/P Nasdaq Short IdeaNasdaq Index
- Price been trending downward since the end of December 2021 and forming a channel chart pattern.
- Obviously more downside rather than upside potential ranging from 3K-3.9K in points. Downtrend is starting to weaken according to moving averages and and vortex sub chart indicator.
- Colored arrows represents 3 scenarios that could play out if price continue to trade within and/or breakout.
65K MOVEMENT ( 70 DAY HOLD ) SELL IDEAChart Analysis Only:
- Signals supporting trading idea are noted in chart.
Oil back at key support who will win this battle?Hi all, thanks for checking in for Wednesday's video analysis on oil.
Once again, we find ourselves back at key support. This level has stood since March, and till today sellers haven't been able to break through this level. For the last two sessions, sellers have tried and failed at breaking $95.20 support, but the question now is, do buyers still have the numbers to defend a new assault?
Monday saw a strong move down by sellers, but they continue to be blocked at support. Things above are not much clearer as resistance continues to look firm from $101-$102.
Our question today is will we see a new break lower or will support hold, and with price now starting to be squeezed, could this become a defining point that continues the current downtrend or sprouts a new reversal?
One thing I didn't cover in today's video is the danger of breakout selling at this point. The current point looks as good as any for a bear trap after a false breakout out lower, as we have already seen one in July.
Regardless of the breakout direction, we see it might be a good idea to wait for a new LH or HL to gauge that the move is valid and won't get sucked back into the range.
Thanks for watching and reading. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day.
Good trading
Gold 4H AnalyzeHi friends.
we are in a range area between two divergent lines that i show on my chart.
if we break this pattern down we see lower levels 1723 and if we loss this level too
we see 1690.
but if this pattern breakout up this means maybe we have a Retest to 1785 level
and after that maybe again falling.
this levels that i illustrate have an overlap with upper and lower bands of Donchian channel
so they are very important levels.
so we can wait till this pattern ends and price direction appear.
ASX200 4H, could we see a new test of 6715?Happy Monday. Thanks for tuning in. Today we’re looking at the ASX200 as a few things point to buyer control. Since last Friday, we continue to watch the new fast uptrend remain in play. Buyers are also starting to break out of a wedge pattern, but we want to see if price can get back up to and break 6715.
A move up to and break of that level could start to tell us that a new short-term up trend is underway.
Thanks to all our subscribers and to the trading community for watching today’s update. We wish you good trading for the rest of the day.
Next short position on XAUUSDUnfortunately I missed the short trade after the entry annotated at the top because that green candle wick was my SL and due to holiday festivities I was not monitoring the charts to re-enter. However, this is my next position. Based on support and resistance confluences on the daily AND weekly charts, this is where I believe price will drop to. However, to avoid drawdown I have placed a sell stop and a sell limit based on two alternate entries with the same SL and TP as the position tool shows.
CFD News; Oil sees demand after testing key support.Welcome to Wednesday's update, subscribers and TradingView community Today our focus is on oil as price has started to move higher after testing and holding for now at key support.
Price continues to trade in a short to medium-term downtrend after sellers turned momentum back in June. Since that point, it's been a series of LHs and LLs. Today's price has shown defensive action from buyers after this morning's lower gap failed to beat 94.90 area support and demand.
Could yesterday's bar be seen as exhaustion? If buyers can hold this level of support, we will be looking for price to continue to push higher. Obviously, if we see a break, then it's back to looking for new LLs maintaining the downtrend.
The MAs remain bearish, but the OBV has stopped putting in clear LLs despite yesterday's strong move lower. Could support be hiding plenty of fresh demand from oil buyers? We will have to wait and see if buyers can hold the level again today.
Data to keep an eye out for today. 10:30 pm US CPI and core CPI. 12:30 am US crude oil inventory numbers.
US30 pressure continues. Could the short-term run be over? Hello to all our subscribers and the TradingView community. Thanks for stopping by and watching our latest market update.
Today we have broken down the US30 on an overall longer-term view and the current short-term view. Overall the trend remains down, and we are watching to see if the short term can complete the current pattern of trend and maintain a normal trend with a new LL. Sellers are in control on the short term but they have a bit to do to confirm that.
On the short-term, sellers continue to hold sway with a break of yesterday’s low in today’s out-of-hours session. We’re seeing two keys moving forward. 1, sellers break 30,500 demand and set off back to 29,683 low. If demand holds and we see a new move above 31,500 resistance, we will jump off the seller train and look at the possibility that the uptrend from the 20th of June has further to run.
Good trading and we hope you enjoy the rest of your day.
Silver CFD Analyzehello everyone
i think we reach to 38.2% fibo level and also a trendline.
we see two candlestick patterns too.
one bullish engulfing pattern
and one morning star pattern.
so maybe we could grow to 200MA and then correct again.
if you open a position dont forget too set your SL under this trendline
and early bottom u see in chart.
(!!!NOTE!!!
my posts are just my own opinion and you must trade and invest in your own strategy.
be careful and protect your capital first.)
thank you all for your supports
USOUSD OIL,Yesterday's buyer fightback to push a new leg higher?Thanks for tunning in TradingView community. Today we're looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday's price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers.
So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week's high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session.
Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday's high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go.
If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum.
Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading.
Could we see Oil retest 122?Thanks for stopping by. We hope the community is having a lovely Friday. Today our focus is on USOUSD (Oil) as price finished yesterday’s session with a commanding reversal bar. After trading over 2% lower, buyers not only took hold but ended the session with a solid 3.83% gain.
Yesterday’s session appears to show that buyers are still very active, and for now, price is not comfortable trading below 114.77. The move maintains the current trend, but we want to see further confirmation to suggest that the trend is set to continue.
If buyers can reverse today’s selling and beat 119.50 minor resistance, which also holds yesterday’s high, we will then be looking for the current trend to continue with a possible new test of 122 or above.
A failure to break yesterday’s high and minor resistance in today’s session could be seen as a small warning to buyer strength.
Good trading
123 Pattern building on the US30?We hope the Tradingview community are having a great day. Today we have been looking at the US30, and we can’t help but noints the solid-looking trend break on the current upswing.
This has us thinking, could we see a 123 pattern that sets up a 2nd upswing and confirms the current leg higher as a new short-medium-term uptrend?
We have the V shape pattern that’s nice to see in reversals. Next, if we see further selling develop today and tomorrow, we will start looking for a new move from buyers that breaks the last high, confirms the 123 pattern (HL), and suggests that this upswing could be a new trend.
Until we see further selling, we will continue to wait. But if the above does happen, we will be looking for breaks of the high to possibly set up new longs. If we see a new high today’ we will be waiting, and if selling breaks below 31,700, we will also be waiting.
NDX100 sellers are struggling to beat 11,780 for nowHello TradingView community, today’s video update is more to highlight an area as opposed to looking out for a potential set-up.
Tech stocks have been having a hard time of it lately, but we are seeing and watching an area between 11,780 and 11,550ish. The bottom is not exact, but after looking at the NDX100 you will see the point being made.
This area, for now, continues to reject sellers and continues to present as demand and possibly support for buyers. It’s no more than a level of interest for us at the moment. We could see price continue to hold there and perhaps push at a new move higher, or we could see sellers railroad the area.
The key for us will be if this level can continue to hold. If so, we will look for further price action to start thinking and looking for new ideas.
Good trading.
CFDs for WTI Crude Oil - SHORT D-RANGEThis graph is a representation of my point of you of the futures market (USD).
